奇迹

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奇迹俱乐部

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Take profit on a portion
Set the remaining to break even and hold on tight
$ETH

Powell 'joins' the dovish camp, citing economic risks provide stronger reasons for rate cuts

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the constantly 'changing' economic risks have given the Fed more sufficient reasons to cut rates.
These remarks indicate that Powell has aligned himself with the 'dovish' camp within the Federal Open Market Committee that sets interest rates, and also signal that he may support a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in September.
Although Powell acknowledged that the government's trade war has had a 'clear and visible' impact on consumer prices, he suggested that this impact is unlikely to persist and may only be a one-time shock that the central bank can overlook.
He stated, 'Given that the labor market is not particularly tight and faces increasing downside risks, (the result of sustained inflation) seems unlikely to occur.' He also added, 'Inflation faces upside risks, while employment faces downside risks, which is quite a challenging situation.'
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September Fed Rate Cut? Don't Be Foolishly Waiting! Powell May Burst the 'Rate Cut Fantasy' This Friday, Three Major Pieces of Evidence + Institutional Withdrawal Signals Must-See

1. Behind Market Frenzy: 92% Rate Cut Expectation May Be a Collective Misjudgment

1. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are betting on a 92% probability of a rate cut in September, but history has repeatedly shown that the more unanimous the market expectation, the more likely it is to be wrong (similar misjudgments occurred in June 2023 and January 2024).
2. The market is severely divided: retail investors are pouring in (with $21 billion entering U.S. stock funds within a week, heavily buying real estate stocks and cryptocurrencies betting on 'easing'), while Wall Street institutions are quietly withdrawing (Barclays, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, etc., warn that the probability of a rate cut is overestimated and advise hedging risks).

2. Three Major Pieces of Evidence: No Chance of a Rate Cut in September

1. Core Inflation on the Rise, Super Core Inflation Surges: Overall inflation was 2.7% in July, but core inflation year-on-year was at 3.1% and month-on-month at 0.3%; the 'super core inflation' reflecting the service sector rose 0.55% month-on-month, linked to wage growth, and a rate cut would exacerbate inflation.
2. Delayed Tariff Risks Awaiting Release: The Biden administration's increased tariffs on China have not fully translated into costs; PIMCO warns that future commodity inflation could rebound, and cutting rates now may trigger a second wave of inflation.
3. Employment Market Remains Robust: Unemployment rate below 4%, hourly wage growth at 4.1%, and two Fed board members have already opposed a rate cut, believing strong employment will lead to a rebound in inflation.

3. Powell's Heavy Signal This Friday: Suppressing Rate Cut Expectations is Key

1. Clear Objective: By emphasizing 'data dependence' to cool the market, proving that the Fed is not subject to political interference (in response to Trump's criticism).
2. Key Statement Directions:

① The rate cut in September depends on August data (August CPI and non-farm data will only be released in September), which could halve the rate cut probability;
② Hinting at inflation risks, warning the market not to be overly optimistic.

4. Potential Market Reactions: Risks for These Assets Increase Sharply

If Powell sends hawkish signals, U.S. stocks (especially real estate and tech stocks) may plummet, the dollar may strengthen, and gold and bitcoin could face short-term crashes, while interest-sensitive assets like junk bonds and REITs could come under pressure.

5. Guide for Ordinary People: Don't Be Swept Away by Emotions

1. Be wary of the volatility risks of interest-sensitive assets;
2. Closely track subsequent macroeconomic data;
3. Stay rational, avoid following the retail investors' bets, and learn from institutions' 'cautious withdrawal' logic.

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Tonight's Crypto Life-and-Death Battle! $BTC : Market Crash or Breakthrough Ascension?

Global capital focuses on multiple key events that will trigger a massive shakeup in the crypto market, as the battle between bullish and bearish forces for Bitcoin reaches a decisive moment.

1. Geopolitical Changes, BTC's Safe-Haven Attribute Under Test

Zelensky's surprise visit to the United States and closed-door talks with Trump introduce uncertainties in the Eastern European situation. If signals of conflict escalation or military aid are released, safe-haven sentiment will rise, leading to inflows into gold and BTC. Historical data shows that during geopolitical crises, the correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 can drop to -0.8; if U.S. stocks decline, BTC may become an alternative safe haven.

2. Eurozone Trade Data to be Released, Risks of Stablecoins Emerging

The Eurozone trade balance will be announced today at 17:00. If the deficit widens, expectations for an ECB rate cut may be dashed, tightening liquidity could lead to euro depreciation, triggering risks of USDT runs. Currently, there are unusual movements in stablecoin reserves on exchanges, with Deribit options open interest increasing by 190%, and high volatility call option trading is active.

3. U.S. Housing Index Sets Tone, Federal Reserve Policy Affects BTC

The U.S. housing index will be released at 2 AM tomorrow. If it falls below the 44 growth line, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September will rise to 70%, which may weaken the dollar's credibility, benefiting cryptocurrencies. Currently, BTC's market cap accounts for nearly 60%.

4. On-Chain Movements, Institutions Locking in Three Major Betting Paths

In the past 24 hours, 32,000 BTC futures short positions were closed on Bitfinex, and Deribit's options open interest broke $57 billion, with institutions focusing on:

1. Conflict escalation → U.S. stocks fall → BTC attracts safe-haven buying
2. Economic recession → Weak dollar → BTC's market cap share increases
3. Liquidity crisis → Stablecoins de-peg → DeFi presents buying opportunities

Tonight, BTC will either crash dramatically or break upward, as the clash between old and new finance awaits resolution.

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Brothers

The live stream has started. Last night, both orders in the live stream were profitable. Come and watch quickly!
$BTC $ETH

Brothers

The live stream continues. During the live stream, $ETH has received multiple orders and is making a profit!

Congratulations to the followers! 🎉🎉🎉

Step by step, solidify the present path. Every little accumulation becomes a river or sea; time rewards the diligent. With light in the eyes and a melody in the heart, the road ahead is long yet bright, steadily moving towards the future!