September Fed Rate Cut? Don't Be Foolishly Waiting! Powell May Burst the 'Rate Cut Fantasy' This Friday, Three Major Pieces of Evidence + Institutional Withdrawal Signals Must-See

1. Behind Market Frenzy: 92% Rate Cut Expectation May Be a Collective Misjudgment

1. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are betting on a 92% probability of a rate cut in September, but history has repeatedly shown that the more unanimous the market expectation, the more likely it is to be wrong (similar misjudgments occurred in June 2023 and January 2024).

2. The market is severely divided: retail investors are pouring in (with $21 billion entering U.S. stock funds within a week, heavily buying real estate stocks and cryptocurrencies betting on 'easing'), while Wall Street institutions are quietly withdrawing (Barclays, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, etc., warn that the probability of a rate cut is overestimated and advise hedging risks).

2. Three Major Pieces of Evidence: No Chance of a Rate Cut in September

1. Core Inflation on the Rise, Super Core Inflation Surges: Overall inflation was 2.7% in July, but core inflation year-on-year was at 3.1% and month-on-month at 0.3%; the 'super core inflation' reflecting the service sector rose 0.55% month-on-month, linked to wage growth, and a rate cut would exacerbate inflation.

2. Delayed Tariff Risks Awaiting Release: The Biden administration's increased tariffs on China have not fully translated into costs; PIMCO warns that future commodity inflation could rebound, and cutting rates now may trigger a second wave of inflation.

3. Employment Market Remains Robust: Unemployment rate below 4%, hourly wage growth at 4.1%, and two Fed board members have already opposed a rate cut, believing strong employment will lead to a rebound in inflation.

3. Powell's Heavy Signal This Friday: Suppressing Rate Cut Expectations is Key

1. Clear Objective: By emphasizing 'data dependence' to cool the market, proving that the Fed is not subject to political interference (in response to Trump's criticism).

2. Key Statement Directions:

① The rate cut in September depends on August data (August CPI and non-farm data will only be released in September), which could halve the rate cut probability;

② Hinting at inflation risks, warning the market not to be overly optimistic.

4. Potential Market Reactions: Risks for These Assets Increase Sharply

If Powell sends hawkish signals, U.S. stocks (especially real estate and tech stocks) may plummet, the dollar may strengthen, and gold and bitcoin could face short-term crashes, while interest-sensitive assets like junk bonds and REITs could come under pressure.

5. Guide for Ordinary People: Don't Be Swept Away by Emotions

1. Be wary of the volatility risks of interest-sensitive assets;

2. Closely track subsequent macroeconomic data;

3. Stay rational, avoid following the retail investors' bets, and learn from institutions' 'cautious withdrawal' logic.