Lip墨菲斯
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以无厚入有间，恢恢乎其于游刃必有余地矣
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Introduction to Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis: The Secrets to Using Four Core Indicators
Technical analysis is not a crystal ball, but your market map and compass. It cannot predict the future, but it can tell you where you are now and the most likely direction to take next.
This article will explain the four most classic technical indicators in the simplest way: Moving Averages, MACD, RSI, and KDJ. We will avoid complex formulas and focus on their core logic and practical applications.
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1. Moving Average (MA): Market trends and costs
1. What is it?
Moving averages represent the average holding cost of the market over a certain period of time. For example, MA30 represents the average closing price over the past 30 days.
This article will explain the four most classic technical indicators in the simplest way: Moving Averages, MACD, RSI, and KDJ. We will avoid complex formulas and focus on their core logic and practical applications.
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1. Moving Average (MA): Market trends and costs
1. What is it?
Moving averages represent the average holding cost of the market over a certain period of time. For example, MA30 represents the average closing price over the past 30 days.
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Non-farm payrolls disappoint, why is the cryptocurrency market falling instead of rising? The battle between bulls and bears at the $110,000 mark will be revealed tonight!
Weak economic data strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts, but the cryptocurrency market is playing out the "good news is fully priced in" scenario, behind which is a fierce battle between institutions taking profits and retail investors in panic.
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On the evening of September 5, Beijing time, the US Department of Labor dropped a "bombshell": Non-farm employment in August increased by only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% (the highest since 2021).
The moment the data was released, the US dollar index fell by 0.73%, and gold soared to a historic high. However, the cryptocurrency market showed an unexpected trend: Bitcoin briefly surged before quickly falling back, even dipping below the $109,000 mark for a time.
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On the evening of September 5, Beijing time, the US Department of Labor dropped a "bombshell": Non-farm employment in August increased by only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% (the highest since 2021).
The moment the data was released, the US dollar index fell by 0.73%, and gold soared to a historic high. However, the cryptocurrency market showed an unexpected trend: Bitcoin briefly surged before quickly falling back, even dipping below the $109,000 mark for a time.
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Non-farm payrolls were disappointing, and the crypto market welcomes the tailwind of interest rate cuts!
Last night, the U.S. August non-farm employment data significantly underperformed expectations (only adding 22,000, expected 75,000), and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The market reacted swiftly: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September soared to 97%!
Core logic:
The weaker the economic data → The stronger the expectations for rate cuts → The hotter the liquidity expectations → The crypto market benefits!
Bitcoin's medium to long-term target looks at $125,000, institutional funds may restart buying mode.
Reminder:
Next week's CPI data (September 11) and the Federal Reserve's decision (September 17) are still key variables, beware of short-term fluctuations!
Conclusion:
During the interest rate cut cycle, the crypto market is still the "when the doves call, the bull market dances"!
(Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CME FedWatch)
#非农数据 #比特币
#非农就业数据来袭 #加密市场回调
Last night, the U.S. August non-farm employment data significantly underperformed expectations (only adding 22,000, expected 75,000), and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The market reacted swiftly: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September soared to 97%!
Core logic:
The weaker the economic data → The stronger the expectations for rate cuts → The hotter the liquidity expectations → The crypto market benefits!
Bitcoin's medium to long-term target looks at $125,000, institutional funds may restart buying mode.
Reminder:
Next week's CPI data (September 11) and the Federal Reserve's decision (September 17) are still key variables, beware of short-term fluctuations!
Conclusion:
During the interest rate cut cycle, the crypto market is still the "when the doves call, the bull market dances"!
(Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CME FedWatch)
#非农数据 #比特币
#非农就业数据来袭 #加密市场回调
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The cryptocurrency market enters the institutional era: new opportunities under compliance and a wave of capital
The cryptocurrency market has bid farewell to its wild west era, with institutional capital becoming the new dominant force, bringing unprecedented changes and opportunities.
Since the beginning of this year, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has grown by 9.9%, adding over $600 billion in value. The US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have attracted over $28 billion in net inflows, becoming the main driving force in the cryptocurrency market.
The stablecoin market has expanded to $277.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of over 35%. The amount of Bitcoin held by enterprises has also reached a historic high, with 174 companies collectively holding 1.07 million BTC, accounting for approximately 5.4% of the circulating supply.
Since the beginning of this year, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has grown by 9.9%, adding over $600 billion in value. The US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have attracted over $28 billion in net inflows, becoming the main driving force in the cryptocurrency market.
The stablecoin market has expanded to $277.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of over 35%. The amount of Bitcoin held by enterprises has also reached a historic high, with 174 companies collectively holding 1.07 million BTC, accounting for approximately 5.4% of the circulating supply.
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BTC Bull-Bear Showdown at $108,000! How Will the Game Between the Fed and Trump Affect Your Investments?
The Bitcoin market is caught in a tug-of-war determined by macro political and economic forces, with $108,000 becoming a battleground for both bulls and bears.
Fed Chairman Powell's unexpected dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting were like a bombshell dropped into the market. He stated, "The risk balance is changing," emphasizing that the downside risks in the labor market are rising.
Meanwhile, Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, an unprecedented challenge to the Fed's independence, is triggering a perfect storm.
01 Macroeconomic Game: The Tug-of-War Between the White House and the Fed
Fed Chairman Powell's unexpected dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting were like a bombshell dropped into the market. He stated, "The risk balance is changing," emphasizing that the downside risks in the labor market are rising.
Meanwhile, Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, an unprecedented challenge to the Fed's independence, is triggering a perfect storm.
01 Macroeconomic Game: The Tug-of-War Between the White House and the Fed
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Bitcoin: The 'Stone Currency' of the Digital Age—The Ultimate Insight from Yap Island's Stone Coins
On Yap Island in Micronesia, there exists the largest and strangest currency in the world—Rai Stones. These massive limestone discs can have a diameter of up to 4 meters, and some require dozens of people to transport.
However, most of these stone coins lie quietly in place, and some even sank to the seabed during transportation. But this does not hinder their trading. The island's residents complete the transfer of ownership solely through verbal promises and the collective memory of the village's ledger. A stone coin that lies at the bottom of the sea, which no one can move, can still be used to purchase land or as a dowry, because everyone acknowledges the value it contains.
However, most of these stone coins lie quietly in place, and some even sank to the seabed during transportation. But this does not hinder their trading. The island's residents complete the transfer of ownership solely through verbal promises and the collective memory of the village's ledger. A stone coin that lies at the bottom of the sea, which no one can move, can still be used to purchase land or as a dowry, because everyone acknowledges the value it contains.
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《Hidden Gold in the Crash! Unveiling the Three Golden Rules for Buying the Dip, Stay Away from FOMO Traps》
——Practical strategy for August 1, 2025 (BTC $115k gaming field)
1. Current Market: A pullback is a necessary 'stress test' in a bull market
1. Data Overview
BTC: $115,896 (down 2.3% in one day, falling below the psychological level of $116k)
ETH: $3,673 (down 4.8% in one day, staking unlock selling pressure intensifies)
Total liquidation: Over $198 million in 24 hours, 76% from chasing long positions
2. Roots of the pullback
Macro headwinds: The Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts (September probability only 23.2%) + the U.S. imposes 25%-50% tariffs on Indian and other domestic products, raising inflation concerns.
On-chain selling pressure: 37,000 BTC held by short-term holders are in loss, panic selling is increasing.
1. Current Market: A pullback is a necessary 'stress test' in a bull market
1. Data Overview
BTC: $115,896 (down 2.3% in one day, falling below the psychological level of $116k)
ETH: $3,673 (down 4.8% in one day, staking unlock selling pressure intensifies)
Total liquidation: Over $198 million in 24 hours, 76% from chasing long positions
2. Roots of the pullback
Macro headwinds: The Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts (September probability only 23.2%) + the U.S. imposes 25%-50% tariffs on Indian and other domestic products, raising inflation concerns.
On-chain selling pressure: 37,000 BTC held by short-term holders are in loss, panic selling is increasing.
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Left-side trading and right-side trading: What retail investors should understand about 'going with the trend' and 'contrarian' logic
Left-side trading and right-side trading are two entirely different operational logics in the market. The former is a contrarian layout of 'being greedy when others are fearful', while the latter is a trend-following based on 'going with the trend'. For ordinary retail investors, understanding the essential differences between the two is crucial to finding a trading path that suits them better.
1. Left-side trading: The 'value investment' logic of contrarian layout
The core of left-side trading is contrarian thinking, commonly referred to as 'value investing' — that is, when the target (stock/cryptocurrency) drops to a low valuation with a high margin of safety, gradually buy in; the greater the decline, the stronger the accumulation. Its profit logic is 'waiting for time and capital cycles': through the restorative rise of the target's value, realize its intrinsic value.
1. Left-side trading: The 'value investment' logic of contrarian layout
The core of left-side trading is contrarian thinking, commonly referred to as 'value investing' — that is, when the target (stock/cryptocurrency) drops to a low valuation with a high margin of safety, gradually buy in; the greater the decline, the stronger the accumulation. Its profit logic is 'waiting for time and capital cycles': through the restorative rise of the target's value, realize its intrinsic value.
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"$120k becoming a graveyard for investors! On-chain data reveals: Institutional cost zone $115k is the starting line for the bull market"
The following is a comprehensive analysis and operational strategy based on the current macro environment, on-chain data, and technical indicators. The core viewpoint is: long-term bullish, but facing short-term pullback pressure, need to lay out light positions at key support levels, avoiding FOMO chasing highs.
1. Core logic for long-term bullish outlook
1. Global liquidity expansion drives upward
M2 money supply exceeds $112 trillion: Global liquidity continues to loosen, historical data shows a strong positive correlation between Bitcoin price and M2 growth (lagged 812 weeks). If the trend continues, the target price for Q4 could reach $200,000.
Institutional funds are poised: Despite a slowdown in short-term inflows from spot ETFs like BlackRock and Fidelity, cumulative holdings remain high, providing underlying support for a bull market.
1. Core logic for long-term bullish outlook
1. Global liquidity expansion drives upward
M2 money supply exceeds $112 trillion: Global liquidity continues to loosen, historical data shows a strong positive correlation between Bitcoin price and M2 growth (lagged 812 weeks). If the trend continues, the target price for Q4 could reach $200,000.
Institutional funds are poised: Despite a slowdown in short-term inflows from spot ETFs like BlackRock and Fidelity, cumulative holdings remain high, providing underlying support for a bull market.
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Make BSC great again! Join us with $BNB $BTC #BinanceTurns8 for the celebration of #BinanceTurns8 , sharing up to $888,888 worth of BNB! https://www.marketwebb.org/activity/binance-turns-8?ref=GRO_19600_R8OOI
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