Weak economic data strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts, but the cryptocurrency market is playing out the "good news is fully priced in" scenario, behind which is a fierce battle between institutions taking profits and retail investors in panic.

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On the evening of September 5, Beijing time, the US Department of Labor dropped a "bombshell": Non-farm employment in August increased by only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% (the highest since 2021).

The moment the data was released, the US dollar index fell by 0.73%, and gold soared to a historic high. However, the cryptocurrency market showed an unexpected trend: Bitcoin briefly surged before quickly falling back, even dipping below the $109,000 mark for a time.

Why is the market not playing by the rules?

In traditional logic, weak economic data → strengthens rate cut expectations → risk assets rise. However, this time the market has shown a response of "good news fully priced in," driven by three key factors:

1. Expectations have already been digested in advance

"It's like a game where the result was already known," market analyst Zhang Wei said, "the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has already reached 97.6%, and the benefits have already been fully priced in by the market."

2. Concerns over economic recession outweigh the joy of interest rate cuts

The far worse-than-expected data has raised concerns in the market about the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into recession. "Investors suddenly realized that the economy might have serious problems," senior trader Li Na analyzed, "this concern has overshadowed the joy brought by interest rate cuts."

3. Whale sell-offs and technical resistance

Data shows that recently, a whale sold off $270 million in Bitcoin all at once, coupled with strong technical resistance around $112,000, triggering this round of adjustment.

The truth behind the data: Is the job market really "cooling off"?

In addition to the disappointing non-farm payrolls, more indicators show that the U.S. job market is rapidly cooling:

- ADP employment increased by only 54,000 (expected 68,000)

- Weekly hours worked have dropped to 34.2 hours (a sign of weakened employer demand)

- Layoff numbers have surged, and corporate hiring intentions have fallen to their lowest since 2009.

"American bosses suddenly became 'Buddhist': not hiring, not opening up positions, and not working overtime—focusing on a 'lying flat' style of management," a market observer quipped.

Where is the crypto market headed? Pay attention to these two key levels.

Regarding the future market direction, technical analysts pointed out two key positions:

Upside breakout level: $112,000

If this level is effectively broken, Bitcoin will open up the space to $115,000 - $120,000.

Downside defensive level: $107,600

If this key support is broken, it may dip into the $105,000 or even $102,000 region.

"The market is currently in a very delicate position," technical analyst Wang Tao said, "both bulls and bears are waiting for the other side to make a mistake first."

How should investors respond?

In this highly uncertain market environment, experts recommend adopting the following strategies:

1. Reduce leverage and control risks

"Market volatility has risen significantly, and high-leverage traders are likely to be instantly cleared out," risk management department head Chen Ming reminded.

2. Gradually position, avoid chasing highs and cutting losses

For long-term investors, consider gradually building positions near key support levels, but do not go all in at once.

3. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's September meeting

The market's focus is now on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 17, which will be the next key catalyst determining market direction.

Market outlook: Short-term pain or long-term turning point?

Despite short-term adjustments, most analysts remain optimistic about the medium to long-term trend.

"If the Federal Reserve starts a rate-cutting cycle, improving liquidity will ultimately benefit risk assets," chief strategist Zhao Jie said, "the current adjustment may provide a better starting point for the next round of increases."

However, some analysts remain cautious. "We need to be alert to the risk of the economy truly falling into recession," warned Liu Fang, director of the Economic Research Institute, "if the economic fundamentals deteriorate, any easing policy may be futile."

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This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risks; please make decisions cautiously.