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- 24-Hour Market Trends
Range Fluctuations and Active Capital: The Bitcoin market is in a range fluctuation, from April 21 to 28, hot capital surged from $20.7 billion to $39.1 billion, an increase of 92%. Speculative forces are awakening, and the market is transitioning from low activity to high activity.

- Main Capital and Position Sentiment: On-chain derivative indicators show that the sentiment of main capital positions is showing signs of decline after a peak. Large players may be adjusting their long positions, but if the indicators recover upward, Bitcoin prices often rise in sync.

Price Support and Trend Forecast

- Support Levels and Market Adjustments: Strong support is near $93,200, and even if there is a downward gap, the 200-day moving average ($89,700) will be a solid support, and Bitcoin prices are likely to hold above the $90,000 threshold.

- Optimistic Future Trends: The impact of global M2 money supply on Bitcoin has not yet fully reflected in the coin price, and it is expected that Bitcoin will break new highs in a few months.

Market Sentiment and Chip Structure

- Market Sentiment Not at Peak: Although about 94% of Bitcoin addresses are in profit, and the stablecoin supply ratio shows high market liquidity, public interest in searching for Bitcoin has not significantly increased, and FOMO sentiment has not fully formed.

- Optimized Chip Structure: The chip structure of Bitcoin has undergone positive changes, with fewer chips trapped at the top and more stable chips at the bottom, and the supply ratio of long-term holders continues to rise.

Risk and Opportunity Alerts

- Short Risk: There are many short positions near $85,000, and if Bitcoin prices rise, shorts may become fuel to drive prices further up.

- ETF Capital Inflows: Spot ETFs maintain positive inflows, contributing to the stability and increase of the Bitcoin market.

Catch up with the live broadcast to profit, live broadcast every night at 10 PM #特朗普暂停新关税 #比特币市值排名 #特朗普暂停新关税

Trump is sick again, bad news is here again, long positions should pay attention to stop losses

1. Trump was interviewed on his private jet returning from Italy: he demands substantial concessions from China, otherwise he will not cancel tariffs on China. Is he changing his stance just like that? The recent major rebound in U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market was primarily due to a easing of tensions with China, but unexpectedly, this moment he overturns it again. In the short term, the capital markets and U.S. stocks next week may react, everyone should pay attention to safety🔏.
2. Sun Yuchen has just transferred 180 million bitcoins to Binance, Trump's advisors are really not just for show. #特朗普暂停新关税 #比特币市值排名 #TRUMP晚宴

Tesla's revenue and profit both decline, Musk decides to return! Dogecoin, however, breaks out into an independent trend

Recently, Tesla's performance report has really made people sweat! In the first quarter, revenue was only $19.3 billion, a direct drop of 9% year-on-year, and the automotive business revenue plummeted by 20%. Net profit was directly slashed, plummeting by 71%, leaving only $400 million. Many people are saying that after Musk became the joint head of the government's efficiency department, he offended Democratic supporters, which directly affected electric vehicle sales. Fortunately, Musk finally loosened up and said he would reduce his involvement with the government starting in May and focus on Tesla. As soon as this news was released, Tesla's stock price immediately rose; it seems everyone is still hoping for his return to business! However, he hasn't completely stepped back, as he still dedicates 1-2 days a week to advise the Trump administration. It's hard to say what new developments will come next.

Now, let's talk about Dogecoin. Initially, everyone thought that if Musk stopped managing cryptocurrency, Dogecoin would definitely drop. Who would have thought of a plot twist? Dogecoin not only didn't drop but actually rose! The crypto world is really hard to grasp; we don’t know how Dogecoin will continue to fluctuate. All we can do is keep watching and eating popcorn.

April 23 Market Analysis
The performance of Bitcoin prices contrasts sharply with the U.S. stock market. The U.S. stock market continues to decline due to tariff issues, while Bitcoin rises against the trend, once reaching 94,000. The expansion of global M2 money supply is reflected in Bitcoin prices; the new high in M2 is the reason for optimism about Bitcoin's future hitting a historical high, but the price is highly volatile, creating a new CEME gap, with a starting point around 91,700, indicating Bitcoin has a demand to fill the gap downward. (Icon below)

Previously, the U.S. stock market fell due to tariff issues, with rising recession risks and frequent negative news. The market is concerned about negative GDP growth while also paying attention to the stock and bond yield rates from ten years ago. The yield on government bonds has approached the warning line of 4.5%, reducing attractiveness, and investors' willingness to buy has weakened. The dollar index has hit a three-year low, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary mentioned the possibility of initiating a bond repurchase, reflecting the severe state of the bond market. Market uncertainty has led funds to flow into gold as a safe haven, pushing gold prices to new highs. The Bitcoin market is also performing well; as the U.S. stock market weakens, Bitcoin buying increases, and Coinbase shows a positive premium, indicating increased buying demand from U.S. investors.

Previously, Bitcoin faced a resistance zone formed by three key moving averages: the 200-day moving average (88,500), the realized price for 2025 (91,565), and the realized price for short-term holders (92,600). This resistance zone has now been broken. The 200-day moving average is a long-term trend indicator; prices above it indicate a medium to long-term upward trend. The 2025 realized price represents the overall profit and loss boundary for new investors entering this year. The realized price for short-term holders is the average cost line for purchasers over the past 155 days. The conversion of resistance to support levels takes time; if it can maintain above these levels, it will attract more funds to chase higher prices.

Currently, Bitcoin faces short-term risks; the four-hour RSI is overbought, and the number of closed contracts has increased significantly. An increase driven by the derivatives market is difficult to sustain and requires support from spot market trading volumes. This week, there has been a substantial influx of funds during two spot ETF trading days, marking the largest single-day inflow since early February, and there is hope for this to continue. Currently, Bitcoin faces short-term risks; the four-hour RSI is overbought, and the number of closed contracts has increased significantly. An increase driven by the derivatives market is difficult to sustain and requires support from spot market trading volumes. This week, there has been a substantial influx of funds during two spot ETF trading days, marking the largest single-day inflow since early February, and there is hope for this to continue.

24-hour Cryptocurrency Hotspots

1. South Korean Market Enthusiasm is High: South Koreans, who are keen on trading cryptocurrencies, have recently been aggressively increasing their Bitcoin holdings. In the past 10 days, the 'Kimchi Premium' for Bitcoin has reached a minor climax, with a premium as high as 3% yesterday. When the market price was 84,000, South Korean investors were willing to buy at a high price of 87,000, which is a strong signal of market buying revival. Bitcoin has broken through a nearly half-year descending trend line and may be on the verge of a reversal, coupled with breakthroughs in tariff issues, prompting South Korean investors to rush to buy.

2. On-chain Data is Performing Well: From the Bitcoin on-chain data, the stock of Bitcoin on exchanges continues to decline, which in past bull markets has been a signal for price increases; conversely, if the stock increases, it means people are starting to sell. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq index in the U.S. has dropped 26% from its peak, while Bitcoin, known for its high volatility, has seen a decline similar to that, demonstrating Bitcoin's resilience against downturns. This indicates that there are not significant fundamental issues in the cryptocurrency space; this round of decline is more influenced by U.S. stock and tariff factors.

3. Mining Market is Prosperous: Miners are increasingly investing in mining machines, with the network's computing power soaring to 888 EH and mining difficulty reaching 123 T, both setting historical highs. Although mining tends to favor long-term investments and does not guarantee short-term safety, it also indirectly reflects the long-term potential of the market. Based on cyclical patterns, the peak of Bitcoin prices in this round may occur in November or December 2025.

4. Market Capital Flow Shows Abnormal Activity: In the short term, the upgrade in Prague is gradually fermenting, with a whale using leverage to buy 20,000 ETH, indicating that large holders are optimistic about the market, in stark contrast to retail investors who are cutting losses, as if everyone is preparing for the upgrade on May 7. Currently, SO has risen nearly 50% from its lowest point, approaching the target of 148, and at this time, converting some funds into ETH and Ethereum ecosystem coins that have not yet surged significantly, holding until May 7 may yield good returns.

Signs of a Turnaround in U.S. Tariff Policy

Recently, the direction of U.S. tariff policy has garnered significant attention in the global economic arena. According to the latest polls and statements from the Trump administration, the tariff issue may be on the verge of a major turnaround.

A nationwide poll conducted by the U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel on April 19 showed that only 44% of respondents approve of Trump's performance in office, with support for his economic strategy dropping to 43%, marking the first time his economic support rate has turned negative during his tenure, a significant decline from over 50%.

This drop in support is closely related to the global tariff measures implemented since Trump took office. Tariffs have increased costs for American companies, and businesses that rely on imported raw materials, like Best Buy, have seen their profit margins squeezed, affecting their investment and expansion plans, leading to a sharp decline in stock prices that drag down stock indices. At the same time, tariffs have provoked retaliatory measures from other countries, hampering U.S. exports, leaving the trade deficit unresolved, and challenging the U.S.'s position in global trade.

Next year, the U.S. will face midterm elections, and support rates are crucial for Trump. Previously, tariff policies did not significantly impact his approval ratings, allowing him to push aggressively for them. However, the emergence of negative effects and declining approval ratings have put immense pressure on him; if this trend continues, his party may be at a disadvantage in the midterm elections.

Perhaps for this reason, Trump's attitude has noticeably shifted recently. Last Friday, he unusually softened his stance, stating that an agreement with China would be reached within a month and claiming a 100% certainty of reaching an agreement with Europe, with the White House prepared. While it cannot be guaranteed that subsequent developments will be beneficial, the probability of positive changes has increased significantly.

The market has also reacted. Previously, the U.S. tariffs led to multiple declines in the three major stock indices in New York; now, the market appears to be more resilient to negative tariff news, with investors showing increased optimism about the direction of tariff policy due to Trump's change in attitude.

While it cannot be asserted that the tariff issue will be completely resolved, various signs indicate that a turnaround is emerging. Trump’s approval ratings and change in attitude suggest that U.S. tariff policy will be adjusted. In the future, the global economy is expected to be more stable against the backdrop of easing tariffs, and the outcomes of trade negotiations between China and the U.S. and between the U.S. and Europe will profoundly impact global economic trends, warranting continued attention. #中美贸易关系 #特朗普施压鲍威尔 #加密市场反弹

Shock! Bitget's announcement directly points to retail investors 'manipulating the market', as chaos in cryptocurrency exchanges sparks heated discussions online. Bitget released an announcement stating that the actions of certain users in the market triggered the platform's risk control system, leading to the suspension of trading, deposits, and withdrawals for the relevant accounts. Within 24 hours, abnormal trading accounts will undergo transaction rollbacks, and account restriction functions will be restored after completion. This announcement has caused significant controversy in the industry, as it is rare for exchanges to claim that retail investors caused abnormalities. Most of the exchange's profits come from users' liquidation, and many exchanges implement technical methods during trade management to achieve desired trading forms. Major exchanges claiming that certain users manipulate the market seems ridiculous. There are numerous comments under this announcement on Twitter, with users questioning why their small accounts were also frozen and restricted from withdrawals. Others raised concerns about the rollback timing and accuracy, and some even used this opportunity to criticize various exchanges. In the cryptocurrency world, exchanges are the center of value, many of which operate in an unregulated state, with decision-making power resting with the exchanges themselves. Users play different roles within exchanges; when trading contracts or leveraging, they are counterparts to the exchanges, while buying spot products is akin to customers in a shopping mall. In contract and leverage gambling, users' hidden cards can be easily seen by the exchanges, leading to low winning rates. Approximately 15% - 20% of users want to engage in contracts or leverage, but typically lose their investment ability within a few months.

Currently, the market has not stopped falling, and long positions should patiently wait for entry opportunities.

Is Ethereum ‘cooling off’? Transaction fees plummet to pre-2020 levels, burning mechanism fails, and the foundation surprisingly relies on selling coins to survive!

On the Ethereum side, on-chain data reveals a concerning situation. Its transaction fees have dropped to extremely low levels, even lower than in 2020, reflecting a significant reduction in network usage. The community has reacted strongly, and developers are questioning the effectiveness of Eth2. Looking back at 2022, Ethereum's on-chain trading was active, with high transaction fees, and the launch of Eth2 had brought costs down to $0.1 - $0.2, which greatly pleased founder Vitalik Buterin. However, today the main chain's activity has sharply declined, with the transaction fee for basic DEX trading dropping to about $0.19, while coin prices remain sluggish, sparking widespread concern among the community and experts. Industry veterans point out three major changes in Ethereum's market structure: the demand for smart contract platforms has not been effectively met by Ethereum, leading to an outflow of innovation; the marginal cost of issuing ETH is approaching zero; although the ecosystem is bound with a significant amount of value, it is primarily focused on monetization in the short to medium term, lacking positive development momentum. Currently, the main on-chain activity is low-frequency custody needs, and the burning mechanism fails to achieve deflationary goals. The Ethereum foundation has heavily invested in high-performance infrastructure construction during the POS phase, but due to a lack of user demand, it has gone unnoticed, relying solely on selling ETH to maintain operations. This behavior further undermines ecosystem value and has sparked dissatisfaction in the community.

Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics: Resurgence and Restructuring

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has undergone significant changes. Google Trends data shows that in March 2025, the global search interest for Bitcoin rose to 34, a 26% increase from February, ending the downward trend since November 2024; Ethereum's interest also climbed to a yearly high of 19. Although current interest is not at the peak levels of a bull market, the trend of stopping the decline and rebounding is evident. Due to global instability and U.S. tariff policies, the view that "Bitcoin is the digital gold" has gained renewed attention, with the BTC to SPX ratio rising, and both institutional and retail investors' confidence in Bitcoin's safe-haven value is recovering, indicating the market may be brewing a new round of activity, with U.S. policy direction becoming a key variable.

Futures contract data shows that market funds are highly concentrated. CoinGlass data indicates that over 640,000 Bitcoins are staked in futures across the network, valued at approximately $54.4 billion. Large institutions prefer CME, holding 142,300 Bitcoins; Binance is the venue for retail and high-frequency players, with open interest exceeding 110,000 Bitcoins. The total open interest in the cryptocurrency market approaches $100 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for more than half. However, the market's leverage is extremely high; if Bitcoin breaks through $86,500, it will trigger a short squeeze pushing prices up, while falling below $83,000 will pressure longs, necessitating strict risk control in operations.

Since April, the funding rate for Bitcoin contracts has fluctuated upward, with bulls dominating the market. Although the rate briefly turned negative during periods such as April 7 and 9, with short positions active on Binance, it has mostly remained above 0%, with some days exceeding 0.02%, indicating a strong willingness among bulls to hold positions. The funding rate is closely linked to BTC prices, but high rates also increase the cost for bulls, and a market reversal could trigger a risk of liquidation.

The maturation of the cryptocurrency market is driving changes in Web3 venture capital. A Coinbase report indicates that industry funding is retreating, with the market capitalization of small cryptocurrencies dropping from $1.6 trillion at the end of 2024 to $950 billion by mid-April 2025, a 41% evaporation, while venture capital funding has shrunk by 50%-60% compared to 2021-2022. Global trade policies and fiscal tightening are suppressing investments, but the industry is shifting towards sustainable development. New projects are focusing more on practical applications, and investors are advised to avoid chasing small cryptocurrencies, evaluate projects from a long-term perspective, and pay attention to fields with real demand, such as AI + DeFi.

24-hour Cryptocurrency Hotspots

In March 2025, 15 publicly listed mining companies faced tight cash flow due to rising electricity costs, equipment prices, and market turmoil, leading to a massive sell-off of newly mined Bitcoin, with sales exceeding 40%, setting a record for the highest monthly miner sell-off since October 2024. Some miners, such as Greenspark, tapped into reserves, while Hive and Bitform sold more coins than they mined. Bitcoin's block transaction fees dropped to 1.1%, hash rates hit a low, and the mining sector entered a 'cash is king' phase. If the downward trend of Bitcoin continues, the selling pressure from miners will impact market liquidity.

The cost of a single Bitcoin transaction fell below $1, and Ethereum transfer fees dropped to $0.168, significantly reducing transaction costs, reflecting a decrease in on-chain user interactions and a notable drop in market activity, with funds concentrating on mainstream coins while altcoins fell out of favor.

OKX was penalized by the U.S. Department of Justice for allowing U.S. users to trade without obtaining a funds transfer license. To resolve the issue, OKX acknowledged that its Seychelles subsidiary violated U.S. anti-money laundering regulations, paying a fine of $795,365,858.40 and returning $420 million to U.S. users, totaling $505.05 million. After the settlement, OKX quickly advanced its strategy in the U.S., establishing a regional headquarters in San Jose, California, launching a centralized exchange aimed at U.S. users, planning to go live nationwide within the year, and building a comprehensive compliance system, including KYC, AML risk control, and trade monitoring. They also appointed former Barclays Chairman Roshan Roberts as CEO for the U.S. region, providing a model for crypto projects to respond to regulation and potentially injecting vitality into the U.S. crypto market.

Dogecoin initially gained attention through 'humorous cuteness' and endorsements from Elon Musk, skyrocketing in market value to enter the top ten mainstream coins in 2021. Now, the Dogecoin community is actively promoting its development toward practical applications, with the launch of the Cardinal protocol and indexing features introducing new gameplay. The Dodge Pump token issuance platform based on the Cardin OS protocol features one-click token issuance, easy operation, and low costs, attracting significant attention and set to launch an airdrop plan. Its first project, DPP, leads in market value, attracting many holders and extensive discussions, showcasing strong community vitality and helping Dogecoin transition from a single payment currency to a foundational platform for Web3 applications. Currently, Dogecoin's market value is nearly $22.9 billion, with a daily trading volume of $567 million. Although its short-term performance is sluggish, its potential for ecological expansion makes the future promising.

24-hour Cryptocurrency Hotspots

Economic Data and Market Reactions

- In March, U.S. retail sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since January 2023, with significant growth in auto sales due to panic buying by consumers responding to tariff threats. However, this data, along with last week's inflation data, had little impact on the market.

Powell's Speech and Its Impact

- Powell stated that U.S. inflationary pressures are more persistent due to structural factors such as tariffs and trade policies, and that curbing inflation is the top priority. He inversely guided market expectations for interest rate cuts and clearly indicated that the Federal Reserve may not intervene to stabilize the market during periods of volatility. As a result, U.S. stock markets and cryptocurrency markets declined, while gold prices hit new highs.

Bitcoin Market Situation

- Bitcoin has strong support in the $81,300 - $83,500 range, with $87,000 serving as the liquidation point. If support at $83,000 is breached, there could be a rapid liquidation. Bitcoin has a high correlation with the global M2 money supply, and the U.S. Treasury has injected about $500 billion in liquidity since February, with some flowing into risk asset markets, driving up Bitcoin prices. Additionally, publicly listed companies have a strong willingness to expand their Bitcoin reserves, with a 16% increase in holdings in the first quarter.

U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics

- The U.S. Treasury market has experienced massive sell-offs, leading to a sharp increase in yields. Last week, the yield on the ten-year Treasury bond surged by 50 basis points, marking the largest weekly increase since 2001. Funds have not flowed into the Treasury market and may have shifted to safe-haven assets like gold or temporarily exited the market.

U.S. Economic Policy and International Situation

- The U.S. government is facing the issue of a collapsing Treasury market and needs to enhance the attractiveness of Treasury bonds to reduce financing costs. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions, and China is believed to be reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, intensifying the sell-off pressure in the U.S. Treasury market. Trump announced that certain Chinese technology products would no longer be subject to super-high tariffs, but a comprehensive removal of tariffs is unlikely, as the U.S. government needs tariff support for domestic tax structure adjustments and spending plans.

April 17 BTC Market Analysis

Dear friends, looking back at yesterday's operations, I clearly provided the strategy in the post: as long as the price does not fall below 83000, one can decisively enter long positions. During the live broadcast at 10 PM last night, I specifically reminded everyone to pay attention to Powell's speech. Based on past experience, during such important speeches, the market is likely to fluctuate significantly. I reminded everyone in the live room to close long positions in a timely manner before Powell's speech, easily achieving a profit of 2000 points. Friends who kept up with the rhythm made a substantial profit!

Looking back at the present, BTC is at a critical turning point on the daily chart. Will it break out of the head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart, thereby starting a downward channel, or will it strongly break through the upper resistance range of 86000 - 86500 and surge towards the high of 88000? This is undoubtedly the most concerning question for everyone right now. But I want to say, regardless of whether the market ultimately chooses to go up or down, as long as effective position management is in place, one can calmly respond to market changes. Spot trading suggestion:
If the upper levels of 86500/86000 cannot be broken, it may be appropriate to reduce positions in spot trading (what do you think? Leave a comment in the comment section!)

For short-term contract operations, during the current sensitive period of market turning points, the simplest and most effective strategy is to trade short-term range orders within the 83000 - 86000 range and strictly set stop-loss limits. Do not blindly pursue large market movements or strategies at this time; being flexible and taking profits when the opportunity arises is key to making steady profits in a complex and changing market. #比特币与美国关税政策 #美国半导体关税 #巨鲸动向
BTC: Short-term upper resistance levels 85500/86500, lower support levels 83500/83000

24-hour Cryptocurrency Hotspot #比特币与美国关税政策 #美国半导体关税 #加拿大推出SolanaETF

Two major events to watch for recently: Retail sales data will be released later, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at 1:30 AM tomorrow (Thursday).

Regarding Bitcoin's price trend, it recently broke through its trend, reaching a high of 86,500, filling the CME gap from April 3, before retreating to around 83,000 after the US stock market opened. There is support at 81,200 - 83,000, with active trading at 84,500. If it falls below 83,000, the breakthrough may fail.

From the perspective of market trading indicators, the daily chart has broken the downward trend since the beginning of the year; there are many short positions at 87,000, and bullish pressure is significant, with a heavy liquidation wall at 81,200 - 83,500. Since April 11, bulls have taken control of the derivatives market. Although the spot ETF saw net inflows for two consecutive days, the scale was small, and CoinBase continued to show negative premiums. US investors are not active, but MicroStrategy and Japan's Meta Planet Company have purchased 3,459 and 319 Bitcoins, respectively.

Whale and holder data indicate that the 365-day moving average for the top ten Bitcoin inflows into address B is rising, with whales becoming more active, and the 30-day moving average declining, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. The total inflow over the past 30 days has decreased by over $3 billion, with whales and long-term holders accumulating coins. Holding for over 155 days classifies as long-term holders, and some entrants from early November will be included, pushing the average price line higher. The 365-day moving average at 76,000 is the bottom, and there may be a third wave of chip distribution in the future.

Currently, although Bitcoin is rising, market sentiment is sluggish, and interest from new retail investors is lacking. Unlike past bull markets with a massive influx of short-term capital, this round has low volatility and low enthusiasm. This is primarily due to changes in the macro environment, with high Federal Reserve interest rates leading to tight liquidity and reduced capital preferences; as well as changes in market structure, with institutions dominating after the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and altcoins performing poorly, with only 3 out of 27 new coins listed on Binance yielding positive returns, leading retail investors to exit the market.

In terms of market trends, the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders is an important reference. A halt in selling followed by renewed selling indicates a new round of price increases. On April 9, 2025, 48,575 Bitcoins flowed into accumulation addresses, marking the largest single-day inflow since February 1, 2022, valued at $3.6 billion. It is normal for some large holders to take profits at high points, and dominant capital remains in the market.

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