Signs of a Turnaround in U.S. Tariff Policy

Recently, the direction of U.S. tariff policy has garnered significant attention in the global economic arena. According to the latest polls and statements from the Trump administration, the tariff issue may be on the verge of a major turnaround.

A nationwide poll conducted by the U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel on April 19 showed that only 44% of respondents approve of Trump's performance in office, with support for his economic strategy dropping to 43%, marking the first time his economic support rate has turned negative during his tenure, a significant decline from over 50%.

This drop in support is closely related to the global tariff measures implemented since Trump took office. Tariffs have increased costs for American companies, and businesses that rely on imported raw materials, like Best Buy, have seen their profit margins squeezed, affecting their investment and expansion plans, leading to a sharp decline in stock prices that drag down stock indices. At the same time, tariffs have provoked retaliatory measures from other countries, hampering U.S. exports, leaving the trade deficit unresolved, and challenging the U.S.'s position in global trade.

Next year, the U.S. will face midterm elections, and support rates are crucial for Trump. Previously, tariff policies did not significantly impact his approval ratings, allowing him to push aggressively for them. However, the emergence of negative effects and declining approval ratings have put immense pressure on him; if this trend continues, his party may be at a disadvantage in the midterm elections.

Perhaps for this reason, Trump's attitude has noticeably shifted recently. Last Friday, he unusually softened his stance, stating that an agreement with China would be reached within a month and claiming a 100% certainty of reaching an agreement with Europe, with the White House prepared. While it cannot be guaranteed that subsequent developments will be beneficial, the probability of positive changes has increased significantly.

The market has also reacted. Previously, the U.S. tariffs led to multiple declines in the three major stock indices in New York; now, the market appears to be more resilient to negative tariff news, with investors showing increased optimism about the direction of tariff policy due to Trump's change in attitude.

While it cannot be asserted that the tariff issue will be completely resolved, various signs indicate that a turnaround is emerging. Trump’s approval ratings and change in attitude suggest that U.S. tariff policy will be adjusted. In the future, the global economy is expected to be more stable against the backdrop of easing tariffs, and the outcomes of trade negotiations between China and the U.S. and between the U.S. and Europe will profoundly impact global economic trends, warranting continued attention. #中美贸易关系 #特朗普施压鲍威尔 #加密市场反弹