Alphractal họ đưa ra Altcoin Season Index, cho thấy 23% altcoin đã vượt mặt Bitcoin trên khung ngày, và từ 2022, tháng 6 thường là lúc altcoin bùng nổ.
Họ còn chỉ ra quý 1/2025 có 3.8 tỷ USD đổ vào Web3, cao nhất từ giữa 2022, gợi ý giống giai đoạn altcoin hot 2021. Index đang thoát vùng "Bitcoin Season", vào vùng trung lập, nên họ tin có cơ hội lớn, dù nhiều altcoin lâu năm chưa chạm đỉnh mới, gây thất vọng cho dân chơi.
Nhưng mà, góc nhìn không hẳn sáng sủa. Bitcoin đang chill, biến động chỉ còn 200 ATR, dân short-term bán có 21K BTC/ngày, thấp hơn trung bình, không thấy dấu hiệu yếu đi như Alphractal mong đợi. Quý 2 tài trợ Web3 sụp xuống thấp nhất từ 2019, có thể thiếu vốn đẩy altcoin lên.
Cộng đồng thì bi quan, nhiều người đã bỏ cuộc, FOMO khó bùng. PTKT cũng lộn xộn: Ethereum cho tín hiệu tăng nhẹ, nhưng Bitcoin có dấu hiệu đuối. Chưa kể, Bitcoin vẫn chiếm 64% dominance, chưa giảm mạnh như các mùa altcoin trước (từng tụt từ 86% xuống 38%).
Holder chú ý mấy điểm này nha:
• Dòng tiền: Theo dõi sát tài trợ Web3 và volume DEX, xem có vốn mới vào không. Quý 2 yếu là cảnh báo đỏ.
• Bitcoin động tĩnh: Nếu BTC tụt hoặc yếu đi, altcoin có cửa. Nhưng giờ nó còn mạnh, cẩn thận bị kẹt.
• Tâm lý thị trường: Đợi dấu hiệu FOMO hoặc tin nóng (như ETF, chính sách lãi suất) để nhảy vào, đừng vội nếu dân còn nghi ngờ.
• Chọn coin: Tập trung altcoin có nền tảng mạnh, tránh mấy coin yếu hoặc meme coin dễ xì hơi.
• Rủi ro: Sẵn sàng cut loss nếu thị trường đi ngang hoặc Bitcoin bật lại, vì dominance cao là áp lực lớn.
#TrumpBTCTreasury 💢Altcoin Season 2025: A Pipe Dream or an Upcoming Explosion?
Alphractal presents the Altcoin Season Index, showing that 23% of altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin on the daily chart, and since 2022, June has typically been when altcoins explode.
They also pointed out that in Q1 2025, $3.8 billion flowed into Web3, the highest since mid-2022, suggesting a similarity to the hot altcoin period of 2021. The index is moving out of the "Bitcoin Season" zone into neutral territory, so they believe there is a great opportunity, although many long-standing altcoins have yet to reach new highs, disappointing traders.
However, the outlook is not necessarily bright. Bitcoin is chill, with volatility down to only 200 ATR; short-term sellers have 21K BTC/day, lower than average, and there are no signs of weakness as Alphractal hoped. Q2 Web3 funding has dropped to the lowest since 2019, potentially lacking the capital to push altcoins up.
The community is pessimistic, with many having given up, and FOMO is hard to ignite. Technical analysis is also chaotic: Ethereum shows slight bullish signals, but Bitcoin shows signs of fatigue. Not to mention, Bitcoin still holds 64% dominance, not dropping significantly like in previous altcoin seasons (where it fell from 86% to 38%).
Holders should pay attention to these points:
• Capital Flow: Closely monitor Web3 funding and DEX volume to see if new capital is entering. Weak Q2 is a red flag.
• Bitcoin Movements: If BTC drops or weakens, altcoins may have a chance. But right now, it’s still strong, so be careful not to get trapped.
• Market Sentiment: Wait for signs of FOMO or hot news (like ETF, interest rate policies) to jump in; don’t rush if people are still doubtful.
• Coin Selection: Focus on altcoins with strong fundamentals, avoid weak coins or meme coins that can easily deflate.
• Risk: Be ready to cut losses if the market goes sideways or Bitcoin rebounds, as high dominance poses significant pressure.
🎯Overall, we are at a crossroads, waiting for confirmation.
$ETH Gas fees will no longer be the primary driver for creating demand for Blockchain coins. The coin that serves as the currency will have the incentive to increase in price as the ecosystem develops. This applies not only to Blockchain L1 and L2 but also includes various Applications.
If following the above thesis:
• Blockchain coins need to ensure dominance in being used as currency within the ecosystem.
• Ethereum Layer 2 grows, but ETH will benefit more than OP/ARB/... unless there is a change in token governance.
• Applications using their tokens as currency are also noteworthy. For example: VIRTUALS, TAO,...
#NasdaqETFUpdate Gas fees will no longer be the primary driver for demand for Blockchain coins. The coin that is at the center of the currency will have the incentive to increase in value as the ecosystem develops. This applies not only to Blockchain L1 and L2 but also includes applications.
If we follow the above thesis:
• Blockchain coins need to ensure dominance in being used as currency within the ecosystem.
• Ethereum Layer 2 is growing, but ETH will benefit more than OP/ARB/... if there is no change in token governance.
• Applications using their tokens as currency are also noteworthy. For example: VIRTUALS, TAO,...
Strategy to acquire an additional 1,045 BTC equivalent to $110.2M at an average price of $105,426/BTC. This marks the ninth consecutive week the company has added more Bitcoin, bringing total holdings to 582,000 BTC.
Plasma ICO taking place today sold out in minutes, with total deposits into the vault reaching 100% (~$500M), equivalent to 10% of total supply of $XPL at a valuation of $500M. Notably, someone burned 39.15 ETH (~$100K) in gas fees just to deposit $10.17M USDC into Plasma.
♟ General news: • Total capital flow into digital asset investment products last week reached $286 million, raising total capital flow in the last 7 weeks to $11 billion.
• Argentina's anti-corruption office clears Javier Milei in the controversy surrounding Libra promotion.
• The US and China are holding trade talks in London, expected to last until Tuesday.
• The Blockchain Group plans to issue shares worth $342 million to continue acquiring more Bitcoin.
• Canary Marindae Solana ETF has been registered in the state of Delaware – a positive signal for the Solana ecosystem.
🔔 Product updates: • Alex Lab – a project built on Stacks – will compensate users after the hack worth $8.3 million, the $ALEX token has dropped 45%.
• The DEX Cetus Protocol on Sui has relaunched its platform after fixing a $223 million exploit issue.
• Sam Altman’s identity verification startup through retinal scanning – Worldcoin – officially expands into the UK market.
💰 Fundraising: • Reveel successfully raised funds in the Strategic Round.
• Turnkey, a startup founded by former Coinbase staff, raised $30 million in Series B to expand its engineering team.
Strategy to accumulate an additional 1,045 BTC equivalent to $110.2M at an average price of $105,426/BTC. This is also the 9th consecutive week the company has acquired more Bitcoin, raising the total holdings to 582,000 BTC.
The Plasma ICO took place today and sold out within minutes, with total deposits into the vault reaching 100% (~$500M) equivalent to 10% of the total supply of $XPL at a valuation of $500M. Notably, someone burned 39.15 ETH (~$100K) in gas fees just to deposit $10.17M USDC into Plasma.
♟ General news: • Total capital inflow into digital asset investment products in the past week reached $286 million, bringing the total capital inflow over the last 7 weeks to $11 billion.
• The Argentine Anti-Corruption Office exonerated Javier Milei in the controversy surrounding the promotion of Libra.
• The US and China are holding trade dialogues in London, expected to last until Tuesday.
• The Blockchain Group plans to issue shares worth $342 million to continue accumulating Bitcoin.
• The Canary Marindae Solana ETF has been registered in the state of Delaware – a positive signal for the Solana ecosystem.
🔔 Product updates: • Alex Lab – a project built on Stacks – will compensate users for damages after a hack worth $8.3 million, the $ALEX token has dropped 45%.
• The DEX Cetus Protocol on Sui has relaunched its platform after resolving a $223 million exploit issue.
• Sam Altman’s identity verification startup through retinal scanning – Worldcoin – officially expands into the UK market.
💰 Fundraising: • Reveel successfully raised funds in the Strategic Round.
• Turnkey, a startup founded by former Coinbase employees, raised $30 million in Series B to expand its engineering team.
• RISE Chain raised $4 million from Galaxy in the strategic round.
#CryptoCharts101 🚨 Counterproductive! The more capital raised = The more wasteful spending?
In the past, people used to rush to buy projects that raised over 100 million dollars from well-known funds like a16z, Sequoia, Pantera,...
But the data shows a completely opposite result when projects that deliver good ROI do not need to raise a lot of capital.
Investors should change their investment criteria: From "how much is raised?" to "is the investor making a profit or a loss?", "is it about to unlock?",... 👇
If you want me to write about this topic, please comment +1 😁
Thank you to the permanent reporter Nguyen Bao Yen 😁
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The UAE stands out with a clear legal framework, divided into various regulatory zones such as DFSA, DIFC, ADGM, facilitating business operations. The establishment of VARA in 2022 has helped Dubai become a global crypto hub, attracting over 1 billion USD in investments in 2023 and significantly increasing the number of digital professionals.
GLOBAL LEGAL TRANSFORMATION
From an initially free environment, crypto exchanges have gradually faced stricter regulations with AML/KYC and Travel Rule requirements. The fragmentation of policies between countries remains a significant challenge, but the general trend is moving towards standardization to protect users and promote sustainable development.
POLICY PROGRESSION THROUGH STAGES
The period from 2017 to 2019 was a chaotic time for ICOs, leading to many scams. From 2020 to 2022, the involvement of major institutions prompted governments to begin developing policies. From 2023, frameworks like MiCA (EU) and VARA (Dubai) demonstrate a global effort to regulate the crypto industry towards a more stable and transparent direction.