#TrumpBTCTreasury 💢Altcoin Season 2025: A Pipe Dream or an Upcoming Explosion?
Alphractal presents the Altcoin Season Index, showing that 23% of altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin on the daily chart, and since 2022, June has typically been when altcoins explode.
They also pointed out that in Q1 2025, $3.8 billion flowed into Web3, the highest since mid-2022, suggesting a similarity to the hot altcoin period of 2021. The index is moving out of the "Bitcoin Season" zone into neutral territory, so they believe there is a great opportunity, although many long-standing altcoins have yet to reach new highs, disappointing traders.
However, the outlook is not necessarily bright. Bitcoin is chill, with volatility down to only 200 ATR; short-term sellers have 21K BTC/day, lower than average, and there are no signs of weakness as Alphractal hoped. Q2 Web3 funding has dropped to the lowest since 2019, potentially lacking the capital to push altcoins up.
The community is pessimistic, with many having given up, and FOMO is hard to ignite. Technical analysis is also chaotic: Ethereum shows slight bullish signals, but Bitcoin shows signs of fatigue. Not to mention, Bitcoin still holds 64% dominance, not dropping significantly like in previous altcoin seasons (where it fell from 86% to 38%).
Holders should pay attention to these points:
• Capital Flow: Closely monitor Web3 funding and DEX volume to see if new capital is entering. Weak Q2 is a red flag.
• Bitcoin Movements: If BTC drops or weakens, altcoins may have a chance. But right now, it’s still strong, so be careful not to get trapped.
• Market Sentiment: Wait for signs of FOMO or hot news (like ETF, interest rate policies) to jump in; don’t rush if people are still doubtful.
• Coin Selection: Focus on altcoins with strong fundamentals, avoid weak coins or meme coins that can easily deflate.
• Risk: Be ready to cut losses if the market goes sideways or Bitcoin rebounds, as high dominance poses significant pressure.
🎯Overall, we are at a crossroads, waiting for confirmation.
