韩丹

【Fan Benefits】

Since I moved the daily diary section to Binance Square, the number of fans has increased from 0 to over 1200, which was unexpected. Thank you all for your support.

Therefore, I have been thinking about arranging some benefits for everyone. After some consideration, I believe two things are particularly valuable:

1. An investment system document. This is the investment guidance theory I have compiled from my experiences, reviews, and learning in the cryptocurrency space over the years, which everyone can refer to. At the same time, it helps in gradually forming your own investment system.

2. A fan group. This group is mainly used to share opinions on various projects/research results; reminders for activities like risk-free arbitrage, etc., to encourage everyone to participate.

These benefits are available for free to all followers. Just reach out to me to claim them. Thank you all for your support.

【Han Dan's Daily Private News】:

【Old Coins】
1. #MNT: Coinbase will list MNT. May 1: Trading at 9 AM.

2. #WLD: Coinbase adds WLD to the listing roadmap.

3. #IOTA: Binance supports IOTA's network upgrade.

【New Coins/On-chain/Meme】:
1. DONKER (BSC): Saw it last night, around 600,000, mentioned buying it before sleep. Forgot about it. Now it's already over 3M.

2. grok (SOL): Big Golden Dog. Currently, anything related to AI is still likely to get popular, as the heat is in AI.

【Macro/Data】:
1. US ETF related: BTC inflow: 1,366 coins; ETH inflow: 14,140 coins.

2. Liquidations in the past 24H: 294 million USDT.

3. US March Core PCE Price Index year-over-year: 2.6%, hitting a recent low.

4. US April ADP Employment Change: 62,000, significantly below expectations.

【Arbitrage/Airdrop】:
1. Binance alpha points have extra bonuses: aimed to encourage users to use the BSC chain and limit order functions. But actually, doubling only adds 1 point.

【Others】:
1. Trump: A beautiful big bill is coming soon. Bigger than tariffs.

#ALPACA
【22 Years Old and Earning 100 Million】

Today, I thoroughly reviewed the Twitter of VIDA @Vida_BWE. I gained a lot from it.

At just 22, he earned almost 100 million on his own. Now at 24, his worth is probably several hundred million (just a guess), and he has created a media company with significant influence in the industry – Equation. @bwenews

Summary:
1. Extremely hardworking, naturally passionate about making money and the information gap.

2. Focus on certain tasks and then amplify them.

3. Choice is more important than effort. Over 90% of wealth is earned in the crypto space.

4. Understand collaboration; you are not omnipotent. Be able to leverage external forces, whether people or tools like AI.

5. Surround yourself with amazing people/circles – the importance of environment.

【Han Dan's Daily Private News】：

【Old Coins】
1.Trump: The top 4 addresses holding the coin can receive a limited edition Trump tourbillon watch

2.XRP: SEC delays decision on XRP and DOGE ETFs

【New Coins/On-chain/Meme】：
1.B2: Airdrop to be received tonight at 20:00. Today's Binance wallet IDO

2.DOGE: 21shares submits DOGE ETF application to Nasdaq

3.Sanjo Yuuya: Will issue a coin. Refuses participation from Japanese users.

【Macro/Data】：
1.US ETF related: BTC inflow: 6,634 coins; ETH inflow: 41,940 coins

2.Past 24H liquidations: 174 million

【Arbitrage/Airdrop】：
1.Binance IDO new token: 16:00-18:00

【Others】：
1.TETHER mints: 2 billion USDT on Ethereum

Simplification: Currently, in WEB3 investments, I only focus on three areas: First is dollar-cost averaging: BTC, BNB/HYPY and other platform tokens (buy when they drop).

Second is arbitrage: such as funding fee arbitrage, as well as new listings/airdrops for certain returns.

Third is hedging: currently, hedging has also been simplified, only doing long on BTC and short on other targets for hedging. Generally, hedging is also done through proportional dollar-cost averaging. For short hedging, I also look for high market cap targets when prices are high to hedge, as this can be held for the long term, because in the long run, altcoins will all go to zero, and the ones that are pumped are basically just for unloading.

The rest of the time, I still have plenty of time to do other things, and I feel quite comfortable this way. Life and work are balanced quite well too.

【Han Dan's Daily Insider】:

【Old Coins】
1.XRP: The US SEC approved 3 XRP ETFs futures. Publicly listed on April 30.
2.JST: Sun Ge posted that JST will become the next hundredfold coin. 【Starting to promote】

【New Coins/On-chain/Meme】:
1.haedal: Binance ALPHA will go live on April 29, with airdrop.

【Macro/Data】:
1.US ETF related: BTC inflow: pieces; ETH: pieces 【Not working】
2. Liquidations in the past 24H: 150 million.

【Arbitrage/Airdrop】:
1.RAY: Trading rewards for RAY.

【Others】:
1.This issue has 29 tokens unlocked. Including OP, CHESS, ZETA.

【Han Dan's Daily Private News】：

【Old Coins】
1. #sol : More and more listed companies are increasing stock issuance and starting to hoard sol.
2. #shell : The launchpad trading competition is about to begin.

【New Coins/Meme】（：
1.house(meme) has performed well in the past few days, and various peripherals are starting to ride the wave. For example, 📎 (has already plummeted), be cautious of risks.

【Macro/Data】:

1. Related to US ETF: BTC inflow: 380 million, 5,037 coins; ETH: inflow/outflow: 100 million, 31,100 coins.
2. Liquidations in the past 24H: 150 million.
3. In the past 48H, whales have cumulatively bought 20,000 BTC.

【Arbitrage/Airdrop】:
1. Alpaca funding rate has little profit left.
2. Continue #sign @ethsign to earn points.

Others:
1. Solana lending protocol: Loopscale was hacked.
2. Important events next week: see the picture.

1. Recently, some altcoins have been driven up by various news, and emotions are definitely impulsive and filled with FOMO. Therefore, a reminder to myself: do not act impulsively, this is not a good time; it’s all driven by emotions. Emotions can dissipate easily.

The biggest test for trading is timing, and timing is the hardest part, unless the market makers know how to operate.

2. Today, $BONK launched a platform, and both Solana and Raydium officially supported it. In an instant, Bonk was pushed up, and I took a short position because the underlying of the launch platform is not established. Everyone is already accustomed to the existing launch platforms; the BSC chain has put in so much effort but hasn't succeeded, let alone others.

Moreover, the meme coins issued by the launch platforms themselves have no value. They are all driven by emotions and will not bring new wealth increment; it’s essentially PVP. So even if there’s a pump, it won't last long.

3. Today, I also opened a hedge position in the AI sector, shorting the AI coins that have risen too high, generally those with low market capitalization. It looks okay so far. Just in the future, when opening hedge positions, it’s better to do it in small amounts multiple times. Because generally, the liquidity of altcoins is too poor, and directly opening the target position would incur too much slippage.

Today, the fee at $ALPACA was really nice. Moreover, I also made a test trade, directly opening a naked long position around 0.18 on Binance, and just checked the increase of 50%, not to mention, and the funding rate is almost 20 points.

Short sellers are going crazy. This is a classic short squeeze, and the market makers must hold a lot of chips to act so recklessly. Everyone, please be cautious.

Old Han's own news sharing:

Old Coin
1.$BONK Next launch platform

New Coin (not yet listed/listed within 24 hours):
1.#manus Raised 75 million in financing
2.#LetsBONK Direct speed pass

Macro/Data:
1. U.S. ETF related: BTC inflow: 10,611 coins, ETH: outflow 18,398
2. Liquidations in the past 24H: 338 million

Arbitrage:
1. Alpaca funding rate
2. Sign-in to earn points (on spot trading)

#INIT
1. Today, the investments in WEB3 were categorized into four types. The first is value investing: the core is good targets and good prices; buying in at low points and holding long. The second type is trading: this falls under emotions, including memes, etc.; the core is grasping emotions and capturing news quickly;

The third type is hedging: the core is that the correlation between different targets must be sufficient, allowing one to offset the uncertainties of the favorable target’s external environment, such as policy factors. The fourth type is short selling; when I refer to short selling, I mean not short-term emotional trading, but based on the long-term, such as long-term short selling of ETH. The core of short selling is: bad targets, high prices. However, one must be careful to exclude low market cap coins.

2. Tonight, the coin from Binance mining went live; after mining for a few days, it feels like I've had a few meals of pig's feet rice. Ever since Binance started doing things like airdrops and wallet IDOs, it seems the returns from the launchpad have become a bit lackluster. It’s better to focus energy on things with higher returns.

Today, INIT had a trading event; when I saw it, there was still an opportunity, but once it was done, the opportunity was gone, and I ended up losing 40U. For future trades of this kind, directly open a short contract and buy in spot; avoid repeated trading, as it not only wastes time but also increases wear and tear.

1. Today's market is quite good. Moreover, with BTC's surge, some altcoins have skyrocketed. However, after watching for a long time, I just couldn't figure out what to buy. This is a timing issue; usually, when prices are rising, it's not a good time to buy, but rather when they are falling, provided that the assets are solid, excluding some meme/altcoins.

So today, I decided to just sit back and watch the BTC I previously dollar-cost averaged into. I hope for some opportunities with certainty.

2. Today, Binance Alpha airdropped again. One account could get around 150 USDT, but it hasn't been selling well. Ultimately, the sales were below 120 USDT, and one account failed to sell and hasn't shown up since. I might as well just leave it there.

Recently, the airdrops and wallet launches from Binance Alpha have been quite good. If I put in some effort to create a few more accounts, the recent earnings could add up to around 10,000 USDT. It's very suitable for small capital to grow.

I am really grateful to Binance lately.

Moreover, the assets in Binance Alpha are starting to show some wealth effect; for example, many assets inside surged over 50% today. $SUI

1. BTC has broken 90,000 USD, and the entire trend looks particularly good. If there are no unexpected events, it is likely to continue rising for some time. However, the short-term increase in BTC is around 1x at most. This is certainly very comfortable for large investors.

Moreover, the current situation is quite turbulent, so holding BTC feels relatively secure. But it is also important to set stop-loss orders to prevent a sharp decline after significant gains.

2. Today has been a rather pleasant day. My wife prepared a big pot of crayfish for lunch, paired with a can of beer, it was simply delightful. In the afternoon, Binance's new project launch was also very comfortable, with one account able to earn 200 USD, definitely a great profit.

Recently, if the market heats up, it is essential to pay more attention to the related activities on BSC. This is a guaranteed source of income.

#EPT
1. Today, BTC has shown a strong upward trend. Fortunately, I have been hedging BTC longs with various altcoin shorts recently, but not in the same proportion. For example: I buy 3000 USDT of BTC daily but only sell 1000 USDT of SOL. Today, the exchange rate of SOL against BTC has finally come down. BTC also works against TRUMP. This is a long-term strategy.

Only with a long-term strategy can there be greater certainty. In the short term, due to volatility, there will always be periods of increases and decreases. Therefore, the certainty is insufficient.

Everyone says ETH is dropping, so SOL will definitely surpass ETH to become the next generation of public chain kings.

What I want to say is: The drop in ETH is a negative signal for all public chains, as this indicates that the so-called on-chain prosperity in the short term is all an "illusion". When the tide recedes, everyone is left without pants.

The only application of SOL is in the least useful, negative EV casinos in society. It’s actually quite laughable when you think about it. It’s just about grabbing some current casino business and cultivating some useless gamblers.

What is referred to as valuable means being able to create greater value for users. For example, a hunter spends $500 to buy a shotgun that costs $100, but the shotgun brings the hunter returns of over $10,000. This is what is valuable.

2. Do not do the wrong things. I increasingly feel that in the crypto space, the so-called not doing the wrong things means not engaging in uncertain activities. For example, short-term trading: today, seeing a particular asset's trend is good, and the EV is also acceptable - if it hits the stop loss, the loss won't be much, but if it goes up, the profit will be substantial.

But in the end, I still got stopped out. Although the loss wasn't large, this is actually an uncertain matter. It’s so-called gambling. If this kind of gambling can have its own rules, then with gradual practice, it might yield decent returns, but I still feel that I won’t engage in such short-term trading in the future.

In the future, I will only do certain things. For example, arbitrage, airdrops, etc. And investments that are definitely profitable in the long term.

3. I am grateful for the ept airdrop issued by Binance today; one account can sell for over 70 USDT, which is pretty good. Grateful. Grateful. Grateful.

#VOXEL #SKYAI
1. Today's biggest profit comes from the airdrop of skyai, which is obviously a money-giving event with a high probability, especially since it is backed by fourmeme, and the time for funding (pre-sale) is quite long.

One account can stake up to 4 BNB, and I got back about 3.9. The airdrop can be sold for 1500 U. I was quite cautious and only staked 3 accounts. But I am still satisfied. After all, it's free money.

2. Another big news today is: BITGET market makers had a problem, resulting in a loss of 100 million USD. BITGET has now restricted withdrawals for those who want to cash out.

This situation definitely won’t allow people to withdraw their funds. They will probably just offer some compensation to settle it.

The awkward point is that the BITGET CEO recently mocked HYPE. Now it’s their turn; it’s truly the cycle of life.

3. I closed the trading, but in my heart, I still thought about recovering the more than 800 U I lost for the sake of possibly insignificant pride before closing it again. But ideally, there's no need for that; it’s not the right thing to do. Moreover, I had already planned to withdraw the money when I earned 200 U earlier.

However, when trying to transfer, I realized I couldn’t withdraw everything; to do so, I had to close the trading. So I didn’t transfer, thinking I would increase my position (just the trading position, but actually it’s not a large position in terms of overall assets), and I aimed to earn 10,000 U before withdrawing.

Then it went south. Alright, I admit defeat. One must learn to cut losses in time and stop immediately when realizing they are doing something wrong.

The BTC I was trading has been stopped out, and the trade has been closed. Since it was the wrong thing to do, what we need to focus on is doing the right thing.

From opening to closing the trade, I spent $860.

In summary: Copy trading cannot make money, and at the same time, it will also have an impact on the trades.

After all, it's impossible to put most of the assets into copy trading.

As you can see in my asset allocation, USDT has a very small proportion in my account. And the amount of U in the copy trading can be ignored.

Therefore, I originally planned for a long-term investment, but after thinking it over, I decided not to transfer money into copy trading anymore, as it can mislead others.

However, today, one account on SkyAI can sell for over 1000 U, grateful, grateful, grateful.

#solana
1. This morning, I got up and looked at the order with the list. I found that SOL had surged a few points, while BTC was almost standing still. Then I checked the trend; the short-term fluctuations are quite large, but I don't want to keep putting money into the order anymore—because making money by following others is almost impossible, and sharing my own orders feels uncomfortable, like being coerced. It's that feeling of being awesome when you profit and foolish when you lose (often just my own feeling).

The certainty in trading comes from the long term (if there was certainty in the short term, everyone would be doing short-term trading because it's more efficient in terms of capital), which is why great investors like Buffett are long-term oriented; at its core, it's about certainty.

So, I usually hold my positions for the long term, and to mitigate risk, I add funds through regular investments while controlling my position well. For example, with the BTC/SOL order, I've mentioned before that it will definitely be profitable in the long run, and having a position of only 10,000 USDT is still okay. Unfortunately, the margin is too low. Hahaha.

So, today I stopped out of the SOL short position in the order, and currently, the BTC long position is still active. Although BTC is profitable, I have also set a stop profit for a pullback. After taking profit, I will transfer the money out and close the order. Because following/ copying orders is a negative expected value activity.

2. While walking with my wife today, we chatted about three types of mistakes that are easy to make in investing:

The first type is emotional. This means completely neglecting research, having no personal investment system, and not conducting analysis before making an investment; just being swept away by a statement or the fluctuations in the market and FOMO-ing into rash decisions. This is a common mistake made by most retail investors.

The second type is strategy error. This means you are following your investment principles/methods, but your method might not be correct. Or sometimes your method is correct but not suitable for all types of investments. Or your method is correct, but you did not execute it properly.

The third type is experience-based/temptation-based. This means you made a trade based on some logic and then made a small profit. You start to think it is the truth. So, you begin to scale up your position. Then you start losing money, and the losses get bigger and bigger.

Experience is often not reliable and is usually coincidental. Logic is what is reliable. Think more about the essence/logic of things.

1. Today I used AI tools to create a good trading tool, and I feel quite good about it. I am very grateful for these particularly useful niche AI tools.

In the future, I plan to use AI tools to help me develop more products and create tools that can assist users, which can also lead to monetization.

2. Today, I have been continuously engaging in arbitrage with T. T has a 3% funding rate on Binance. On other platforms, it is less than 2%.

So I am taking advantage of the interest rate spread.

3. Today, there was a new listing on Binance, and I sold as soon as it opened. I only sold 40 USDT, when at the highest point I could have sold for 100 USDT; I missed out on potential profits.

However, I have always maintained a mindset of consistently making profits.

I feel that in the future, I should focus more on long-term endeavors that can yield high returns.

Don't just focus on small, short-term gains.

#IQ

1. Today on Binance, the contract I was following had a large "pullback"; this pullback scared away the only person who followed my trade, and they exited with a loss, which I feel quite embarrassed about. However, I estimate that they didn't really read my article; otherwise, they wouldn't have followed my trade, because following someone else's trades is fundamentally not a way to make money in the long run.

The reason for opening this trade was due to the significant drop in the US stock market last night and issues with tariffs. Additionally, I feel that the meme on the SOL chain is slowly coming to an end. On-chain gambling will heat up for a while and then cool down, but it won’t stay hot all the time.

Because of gambling, most bettors end up losing. Moreover, it comes fast on-chain, as it doesn't take long for bettors to lose everything.

Therefore, my plan is to dollar-cost average into a short position on SOL while also opening a long position on BTC for hedging. I just didn’t pay attention to the fact that I only put down 1000 U in margin. This led me to accumulate nearly 30,000 U in positions, so feeling a loss of around 400 U felt substantial, though it's actually not that bad.

I will just hold onto this position and won’t open any more long positions or add margin. If I open more long positions or if there’s a liquidation in the contract trades, I can just continue on my own account.

My thinking is that if SOL rises against BTC, I will hedge around 100,000 U. The stop-loss will be based on BTC completely breaking through the daily EMA 56.

2. Speaking of memes, because I am optimistic about the “ordinary people” (memes), I will continue to hold the remaining tokens. As a result, when I woke up this morning, I saw that it had dropped again, but fortunately, it didn’t go to zero. I'm used to memes.

However, at noon, it surged again. It peaked at 1M, directly doubling. I sold some during the pullback. The rest I will hold onto for now, as there haven’t been many good targets on the BSC chain lately; ordinary people are somewhat of a consensus. Next, I will see if there are any institutions that are interested.

Actually, I feel that currently, it is still possible for institutions to come to BSC and create a meme, as it not only has official support but also that BSC has relatively hungry funding. Although the highly correlated “wish pool” has also surged several times today, I still feel that if BSC produces another godly project, it must be unrelated to CZ and the top individual; only in this way will BSC have a future.

#WCT #NORMEIS

1. Today I closed the positions I was managing. Invested 1000U, earned 120U. Yield rate 12% (4 days), but overall the followers did not make money, only one person who kept following made less than 10% profit.

In the future, I will try not to open positions in managed accounts unless there is a particularly certain opportunity. At that time, we will see if there are any lucky ones who can follow.

The reason why followers are not making money, besides the previously mentioned high costs for followers (fees, profit sharing, funding rates...) is also because followers do not know what the account manager is thinking, so they often stop-loss early due to "loss aversion".

For example: Previously, there were 4 people following me, but 3 of them stopped-loss during yesterday's losses, only 1 person followed through to the end and ultimately made a profit.

Human fear comes from the unknown. When you are following, you are in the process of the unknown, so either you trust the account manager absolutely, or you shouldn't follow from the start.

2. Recently, there have really been opportunities on-chain, but this time is often the most dangerous. So look more and act less, every meme must go through your own system. I didn't enter any memes today.

The only action I took was to increase my position in NORMIES, but it has dropped back down again. My cost is 1M, I have already recouped most of my investment, and I will just hold onto the remaining hundreds of thousands without moving.

If you ask why, I can only say it’s a combination of system + feeling.

But at the same time, it also relies on a bit of luck. I hope luck is on my side. Grateful, grateful, grateful.

3. Today WCT also opened for trading. It's considered an extra profit; WCT was previously listed on Bitget; and OKX gave bonuses for filling in addresses; Binance also mined a bit. Although it's all just small change, this steady happiness is still very pleasing.

By the way, the results for OKX's small essay competition came out today, and I surprisingly won 100U. I can have many more meals of pig's trotters now. Grateful, grateful, grateful.

#跟单合约 $AIXBT

Why hedge? It's to combat uncertainty.

From my trading yesterday, you can see that I only shorted AIXBT (the reason for this can be found in last night's article), so to reduce losses, I had to set my stop loss low.

As a result, after AIXBT hit my stop loss yesterday, it continued to drop.

If there's a reasonable hedge, there's nothing to fear, and you can make a profit, possibly a big profit.

Just like now, I have opened hedges for ETH and SOL. Although I'm losing money, I'm not in a hurry to close my positions. Because the logic is correct, and when the volatility settles, there will eventually be opportunities to profit.

Even if the market collapses, I have hedges, so I'm not afraid of losing too much.