1. Sometimes when opportunities arise, we don't feel that it's an opportunity.
Especially in investments—investing in web3, because here it can easily be 10 times in one day.
The recent SPK is a case in point.
At 2M, I felt like I should wait a bit longer; at 3M, I thought there were too many trapped positions, it couldn't explode so quickly.
As a result, in less than 3 days, it was 15 times.
Actually, this kind of situation can be managed with weighting. For example, if you still think 2M will drop, then you can invest 10% of your total position; the same goes for 3M, at least 10%.
Although the cost of weighting might not be the best, at least it won't let us completely miss out. The losses are also limited.
In investments—especially in trading, weighting is definitely a very important method.
Vine Review: I looked at the logic: Musk tweeted that he wants to bring VINE back, using artificial intelligence.
I thought it belonged to the FOMO sentiment market. Once the sentiment passes, or once this matter becomes a fact, it will probably end. Because Musk’s statement about bringing back Vine has nothing to do with the token $VINE , it’s just a hot topic.
So last night before sleeping, I checked the price of VINE: it was around 0.08. I then placed a short position at 0.106, thinking that if it surged by 30%, I would gradually short and profit from a pullback after the surge.
In the morning, not only did it surge, but it continued to surge by over 60%, reaching 0.134. At this moment, I had a short position of around 1800U, with a loss of about 160U.
I checked the curve and saw no signs of a pullback, indicating that the sentiment was still strong. It also showed that the market maker was in control.
At this point, the wisest action would be to cut losses. Because it had already broken the original plan.
However, I did not cut losses; instead, I added another 800U short position. But when adding the short position, I set a stop-loss at 0.0144.
As a result, I was indeed stopped out. I lost about 430U.
My own reflections:
1. I should not place orders while I can't monitor the market at night, even for prices I consider absurd.
2. I should not short low market cap assets, especially when sentiment is rising. Because low market cap assets are more volatile, and market makers can easily control them.
3. When the expectations of an event have not yet concluded, meaning the facts have not been revealed, I should not short it. Shorting should be done on the wave of a pullback after the facts are out. $VINE
1. Today, because Ben released positive news about the platform flywheel, Launchcoin surged by another 25% +.
I mentioned in my diary yesterday that I sold 1/4 during the previous surge, and today I sold 3/4 during this surge. It feels great.
However, during the pullback, I didn't increase my position enough when using intraday trading; I should have been more decisive and fully added.
Now, I am just waiting to see what the platform's policy will be tomorrow.
There will definitely be significant volatility tomorrow, but the potential for profit is still there.
There's a high probability of either a surge or a crash.
Here, the strategy that is likely to be profitable is: open both long and short positions, then set a stop loss of about 5% for each, and quietly wait for the announcement.
Regardless of the announcement's outcome, the price movement will definitely exceed 5%, so it is almost a guaranteed profit.
Additionally, one can also engage in operations for overselling/overbuying after the announcement is released.
2. The more I use AI lately, the more I can't do without it.
It has been very helpful to me. Because it's like having the wisdom of Zhang Liang, Chen Ping, and others at the same time.
Moreover, the logic behind the O3 model is very strong. Many so-called influencers have opinions that seem trivial from the perspective of AI.
In short, young people should fully embrace AI.
This field is much larger than short videos like Douyin. This is the domain of the world.