佑安日记

The overall trend over the weekend is characterized by sideways fluctuations. After the previous decline, the market has entered a correction phase. From a short-term K-line analysis perspective, there is a rebound expectation, but there is pressure above and support below. The indicator combination shows that bears are dominant, the direction is weak, and this may continue to oscillate or adjust downwards.

From the K-line perspective, a doji indicates a possible trend reversal, while the black three soldiers strengthen the short-term downtrend. The KDJ three lines are all at low levels and moving downwards, indicating weakness and strong selling pressure, with a potential short-term rebound but limited strength.

At the same time, both RSI and MACD show weakness and form a death cross below the zero axis, with green histogram bars strengthening, indicating obvious bearish characteristics in the market.

Therefore, in the future, I still lean towards a rebound relying on the upper levels of 106000 and 106500 to continue the layout, while paying attention to the lower levels of 103700, 102600, and 101800!

美股开盘：三大指数大幅低开 加密板块普跌

6月13日讯，美股开盘，道指开跌1%，标普500指数跌0.9%，纳指跌1.06%。

加密板块普跌，Coinbase(COIN.O)、Strategy均跌超1%，Riot Platforms、 HUT 8 Mining均跌超2%；

特斯拉(TSLA.O)跌1.4%，报道称瑞典“AP7”养老基金称已将特斯拉列入黑名单并出售了其所有股份。

The pancake has continued to decline from the high point of 110600, currently fluctuating around 104192.4. Despite the obvious downward trend previously, a 'red three soldiers' pattern has emerged, indicating a short-term rebound. From a key point of view, the support level may be around 100300, while the resistance level may be at the previous flat top of the pattern.

In the short term, the RSI and KDJ indicators show that the market is gradually recovering from an oversold state, with some rebound expectations in sentiment. At the same time, the MACD red bars have begun to appear, but trading volume has not continued to expand, indicating that the rebound momentum is not very strong. Considering the recent K-line pattern of the 'red three soldiers,' the likelihood of short-term upward fluctuations is relatively high, but the probability of being constrained by resistance above is also significant.

Therefore, do not blindly chase in the short term; wait for a rebound to intervene again at the 105200—105500 line, while paying attention to 102600, 101500, and the previous low point of 100300 below!

After Israel's airstrike on Iran, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies depreciate significantly

On June 13, Bitcoin, the largest digital asset, fell by 3% in the Singapore market to below $103,000, while smaller cryptocurrencies experienced even larger declines. The second-ranked token, Ethereum, once dropped by about 6.9%.

"Cryptocurrencies have reacted negatively to the news of Israel's attack on Iran, consistent with major risk assets," said Caroline Mullen, co-founder of crypto derivatives liquidity provider Orbit Markets. "We expect to see technical support around $101,000, but geopolitical news will drive price movements in the short term."

U.S. stock indexes open slightly higher, Boeing down nearly 6%

On June 12, the U.S. stock market opened with the Dow down 0.3%, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq down 0.18%.

Boeing (BA.N) is down nearly 6% after an Indian Airlines Boeing 787 passenger plane crashed, and General Electric (GE.N)'s subsidiary GE Aviation is down 1.5%; Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) is down 2.8%, reportedly developing advanced chips for Volkswagen.

The pancake continued its downward trend in the morning. The current price is forming a sideways consolidation pattern under low trading volume and a wait-and-see state in the MACD, while the K-line pattern of three black crows combined with the oversold state of the KDJ indicator shows that there is significant short-term downward pressure, but a slight rebound cannot be ruled out.

In the short term, it may continue to consolidate at a low level, during which a slight rebound after finding support is possible, but the strong bearish signal of the three black crows indicates that the height of the rebound is limited, and the short-term trend is weak.

Aggressive traders can make short-term trades with light positions as long as the support at 107300 holds, targeting 108000.

Conservative traders should wait for a rebound to 108000—108400 to continue following the market, targeting 106400 and 105500.

Risk control: It is not recommended to make heavy trades before confirming a reversal signal with volume and indicators, and be aware that the continuation of the bearish trend may lead to further price declines.

Currently, the overall trend of Bitcoin is in a downward oscillation state. In the short term, there is a certain demand for rebound, but it still lacks obvious upward momentum continuation.

Both the RSI and MACD indicators show that there is potential for a rebound in the market in the short term, but the overbought signal from the KDJ may face short-term pullback pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the price trend will mainly be characterized by oscillation and consolidation in the short term.

However, caution is needed if it breaks below the 108000 integer level, as the market may continue to seek support below.

From the candlestick chart, a "doji" pattern has recently appeared, indicating that the direction is not clear; previously, there was a "three black crows" bearish pattern and a "bullish engulfing" rebound signal. Additionally, the continuation of the trend in trading volume is also insufficient.

Therefore, in the early session, we will first look for a rebound to the upper range of 109500—109800 for potential entry, and below, we will successively focus on the levels of 108000, 107600, and 106400!

U.S. stock market opens, Dow Jones up 0.12%, S&P 500 up 0.16%, Nasdaq up 0.32%.

Tesla (TSLA.O) up 2%, Musk expresses regret over previous post about Trump; rare earth sector broadly declines, rare earth materials producer MP Materials down over 6%.

It is important to know where to do what elixir, why, and not to enter and exit blindly.

US May CPI data fell short of expectations

On June 11, the US May non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 2.4%, while the market expectation was 2.5%.

The US May non-seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month recorded 0.1%, while the market expectation was 0.2%.

The US May seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month recorded 0.1%, while the market expectation was 0.3%.

The US May non-seasonally adjusted core CPI year-on-year recorded 2.8%, while the market expectation was 2.9%.

CPI data will be released soon, everyone fasten your seatbelts!

After experiencing a continuous rebound, the large pancake is currently in a state of oscillation and consolidation, with an upward movement slightly weakening and showing signs of a small pullback, forming a short-term adjustment signal.

For short-term trading, one can consider high sell and low buy strategies around the upper and lower boundaries of the oscillation range, avoiding high chasing or blind selling before a clear breakout signal.

From a technical perspective, a dark cloud cover pattern has appeared, indicating a possible downturn in the short term; however, a flat bottom pattern is located near the support level, suggesting a potential rebound.

In terms of MACD, the DIF line and DEA line are close to the zero axis, with the red bars shortening, indicating a weakening of bullish momentum, and the short-term may continue to oscillate. Meanwhile, trading volume has significantly decreased, with market trading being light, leading to a weakening of short-term trending momentum.

Therefore, Youan is still more inclined to enter at the oscillation bias towards the upper pressure level around 110600, while paying attention to the support levels around 108300 and 107300!

Chairman of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee Plans to Introduce Three Bills to Address Gaps in Trump's Massive Proposal

On June 10, according to U.S. media Semafor, the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, Republican Graham, is preparing for the possibility that key provisions of President Trump's massive proposal may be cut.

His solution is to introduce another bill for tax cuts and spending reductions. Graham stated that the current legislation is not the final outcome and added that if necessary, he expects a total of three bipartisan bills: "Let's first try to reach a compromise on this bill, and then we have two more bills to advance."

Graham said, "The President wants to achieve some policies, such as tax exemptions for tips and overtime pay. All of these may be difficult to fully include in the bill. Therefore, we want to introduce the largest scale of the bill that the market can bear, but we also need to understand that more bills will be introduced. The core challenge that senators face at this stage of the process is how much more can be done."

U.S. stock market opens, Dow Jones opens down 0.03%, S&P 500 opens up 0.12%, Nasdaq opens up 0.14%.

Tesla (TSLA.O) up 1.5%, Uber (UBER.N) up over 1%, the company plans to conduct autonomous vehicle testing in London; Tencent Music (TME.N) up 4.2%, the company intends to acquire Himalaya for $1.26 billion.

Yesterday, the large pancake had a big bullish candle, breaking through the previous consolidation range, and after reaching around 110600, it began to retreat. It was also mentioned yesterday that after breaking 108800, it would not be wise to stay long, and this was effectively validated during the session. Currently, although it is still in a volatile trend, there are signs of weakening upward momentum, entering an adjustment phase.

From a short-term perspective, a "bullish engulfing" pattern appeared in the morning, but the recent three consecutive bearish candles formed a "black three soldiers" pattern, indicating a further pullback to digest previous gains, with expected support around 109000. It is necessary to be cautious about whether the price will break below the key support level, triggering a deeper adjustment. Conversely, if it can hold the support level and re-test the resistance level, the price may enter a seesaw-type consolidation.

Therefore, currently, the aggressive target is 110200 for a small pullback, with attention on the support situation at 109000. At this moment, one should not blindly chase the volatility.

U.S. stock market opens, Dow Jones rises 0.02%, S&P 500 index up 0.12%, Nasdaq up 0.22%.

Tesla (TSLA.O) opens down 3%, as the company has had its ratings downgraded by multiple investment banks, with a cumulative drop of nearly 15% last week;

Stablecoin leader Circle (CRCL.K) continues last week's upward trend, rising over 22%; VinFast (VFS.O) rises nearly 10%, as the company plans to at least double its global vehicle deliveries this year.

The large pancake shows a fluctuating upward trend in the short term, with overall bullish momentum being strong. However, the RSI is already in the overbought zone, and the current candlestick has formed a doji pattern, suggesting that it may enter consolidation or experience a pullback in the short term. The strong signal from MACD remains valid; if the price breaks through the resistance at 108800, it will continue to move upward. If it fails to break through, it may re-confirm the support level at 100300.

Aggressive traders can attempt to go long with a light position when it pulls back to the short-term support level of 106500, but strict stop-loss measures must be set.

Due to the RSI being in the overbought zone and the recent signs of fluctuation, one should be cautious of the pullback risk and pay attention to the breakthrough of key support and resistance levels.

The previous peak and trough at 108800 serves as an effective short-term pressure point; based on this position, one can attempt to enter a trade. On the downside, the primary focus should be on 106500 and 105000. If it breaks upward again, adjustments should be made promptly, and one should not stay too long!