Atlantis-初心

As the Nasdaq fluctuates upward to 17440, Bitcoin also breaks through 95000, and most altcoins follow suit, this clearly indicates the involvement of major players in accumulating shares! In the short term, it remains a fluctuating upward trend, moving two steps forward and one step back. Position changes can still continue! It is expected that as we approach the previous high, there should be one more dip before the real market rally begins. Then a V-shaped rebound will kick off the bull market! This time frame is estimated to be around the end of May or mid-June!

#btc

A few days ago, I accumulated some at the 83 position during the pullback. Yesterday and today, the pullback is still within the 83-48 range, so I added a bit more today. Although BTC hasn't really stopped declining yet, I am eyeing $ltc for ETF expectations and plan to gradually build a long-term position. Currently, I've covered 4 out of the expected 10 layers, and if the opportunity arises, I plan to accumulate some more at 74 and 63 in batches.

#ltc

The adventure funding fee feels like it won't be worse than today's 1 chicken leg, -1.13

#币安HODLer空投SPK

$BTC This market is really uninteresting, the three rebound highs are getting lower and lower, the trend line's resistance hasn't even been tested before it reversed, just like Trump's mouth, it's only 2 bucks; let's first take a look at the support at point 1 on the minor trend line, if it breaks, I'll reduce my position by one layer, ensuring I have 2 layers of flexible positions ready! If it doesn't break, then I won't act for now!

Many times, the divergence in the market is like this, with the fundamentals and technicals showing no clear bullish or bearish signals, so aside from waiting, we can only return to strategy, control our positions, and ensure that when the worst outcome arrives, we won't be caught off guard and unprepared!

#btc

Last time, I got a big chicken leg, just woke up, didn't catch the high point

#币安HODLer空投SPK

$btc has gone through three days of fluctuations and has finally risen above 106700, the upper edge of the fluctuations, and altcoins are generally following suit, which is a positive sign. Since it has chosen to move upwards, it will not easily change direction for the time being. However, when there is a significant divergence between bulls and bears, whether it is an upward or downward movement, it will not happen all at once. Even if it is to challenge the previous high, it will likely be around 107350-108400-109350-110360, with 1000U as a small interval, experiencing a small step rise during fluctuations.

It is important to note that the closer btc gets to its previous high, the smaller the expected investment space becomes, so funds may shift towards $ETH and other mainstream assets. Therefore, during each pullback, a portion of funds can be allocated to the Ethereum mainstream framework. As I said, if the increase exceeds 30%, some can be sold to rotate positions!

The $ZKJ and $KOGE of alpha will not be the last to run away; perhaps it is just the beginning. Pandora's box has been opened. Look for high market cap or significantly rising alpha tokens to ambush at high positions! Besides $B, which other tokens have a market cap of several hundred million?

#alpha

$zkj Is it too much for me to eat a pig trotter rice? 0.35 leveled, 0.38 went in again, what am I after?

2 hours ago, $ZKJ crashed! The contract dropped to a low of 0.253, spot price 0.376, current contract 0.382, spot price 0.78, a price difference of double! This is actually just like what was said on Bird Number: it's a trap set intentionally:

Why do two coins have such low wear when interacting? This is actually a disguised way to attract you to be a liquidity provider. In spot trading pairs, apart from S points, no one is really willing to take over, so it relies on deception. First, they use low wear to post in the plaza to attract you, and when more people come in, the pool slowly grows. Additionally, the threshold for short-selling points is too high, leading to a large number of users giving up in recent days. Therefore, these big players hope to earn small profits from wear, while others are eyeing your principal, preemptively laying out contract short positions, causing a chain crash and withdrawing from the pool, total collapse!!!

But from another perspective, this can be considered malicious short-selling. Normally, if a retail trader unrelated to the platform operates this way, the platform would ban their account and prohibit withdrawals. There have been many such cases before, and most accounts were not banned. You can search on a certain bird site!

Is it over after the collapse? No, just now, the quick-witted opened a long position at the bottom, hahaha, making another batch of people laugh! Generally speaking, in such situations, the contract and spot prices will eventually converge; however, since ZKJ is a small clone with not many bot bricks, most transactions are on-chain and not so sensitive!

So the question arises: are you saving to short the spot or going long on the contract?

#ZKJ

$BTC is still oscillating around the 105,000 level. This morning, due to Iran's retaliation against Israel, there is still a slight impact on the cryptocurrency market. The reason was mentioned before: capital is always profit-driven. In the short term, the investment expectations for gold and crude oil are higher than for BTC, so some funds are bound to shift from the crypto market to gold and crude oil! Fortunately, it’s the weekend, and international futures are closed, plus gold is hovering at a high level, which limits the space. As long as Bitcoin can maintain its oscillating trend, the possibility of it challenging previous highs again increases!

At this point, the altcoin market is quite difficult to decipher, with no obvious sectors or rotations. If we use the method of carving a boat to seek a sword, actually in every bull market, Bitcoin leads first, and the mainstream follows in the middle stage. The latter half, after Bitcoin's high and significant correction, is the time for altcoin performances.

So as we approach the middle stage, it might be worth paying attention to mainstream coins, such as $LTC, which has ETF expectations. Those altcoins that haven't been well positioned still have opportunities to reallocate. Personally, I still have faith in stablecoins, DeFi, and then CEX and DEX sectors!

Now, let's talk about position issues. At this price for altcoins, which are not far from the low points, there is actually no need for big adjustments in positions. If fully invested, it’s enough to reserve 1-2 layers of positions for flexible precautions. If there are opportunities, we can take a wave down. If not, just prepare for a downside!

Don't alpha every day, open the plaza, morning alpha, noon alpha, evening still alpha, some posts that complain and刷分 every day can make it to trending! It's a mess! Think about what you came to the crypto world for? Do you really think that by studying a few刷分 to reduce wear, you can achieve your purpose for coming to the crypto world?

Fishing, do you understand? Before you cast your line, you need to bait the area. Once the bait is gone, the remaining fish bait is on the hook! Picking up bottles in the community earns more money than this, can you have a bit of backbone?

An An is doing this刷积分 mainly to keep users' U in the exchange! Remember the rumors from the end of last year? Nearly half of An An's user funds were withdrawn, let me tell you, that wasn't a rumor, it was real! During that time, on-chain AI memes exploded, attracting a large amount of funds, and $trump pushed the on-chain to its peak! The U in cex was almost withdrawn completely, where would the exchange get U for lending? Obviously, An An has now achieved his goal; he just needs to occasionally sprinkle some bait to maintain it. This is An An's alpha, the alpha of big players, not yours.

If you really want to create an alpha ecosystem, it’s about explosive growth, creating a few star projects that generate wealth effects. On-chain users will naturally come over. Do you need to go through so much hassle every day刷分? Every day you just come up with some insignificant projects that obviously can't afford the listing fee for real assets, which poor projects would be willing to spend money to pump?

$BTC This position should not have much fluctuation in the next couple of days without major events to stimulate it. Whether it’s an upward movement or a decline, it needs to build momentum through oscillation. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market will be closed this weekend, and from the K chart, it is also approaching previous highs, showing no upward momentum for now. Next week will likely see a consolidating retracement, which currently has limited impact on Bitcoin.

What needs attention is the conflict with Iran. The sudden event a couple of days ago has had some impact on the cryptocurrency market, mainly from a funding perspective. Bitcoin is close to its previous high, and the upward space is quite limited, while the sudden outbreak of war will inevitably lead to a surge in gold prices. The investment attributes of gold are obviously stronger than Bitcoin in the short term. Fortunately, Iran has not taken action for now! As long as the situation calms down and expectations for gold investment weaken, funds will likely return when the opportunity arises!

From a technical perspective, the weekly K chart of $BTC is actually showing a significant divergence, and coupled with the failure to break through the previous high, a retracement is inevitable. Although the overall direction in the past month has been to look for a retracement, a significant drop would definitely require considerable oscillation time to accumulate long positions as fuel for short positions.

As shown in the chart: On December 17, 2024, after Bitcoin reached its peak, it broke through the previous high one and a half months later, followed by a month of oscillation until the significant drop on February 24, 2025. This was after more than two months of top oscillation. The recent peak on May 22 has not yet reached a month, and both peaks were quickly suppressed. The limited accumulation of long and short positions at the top raises the question of how much positioning can the main force complete without sufficient counterpart orders?

Therefore, what I am looking forward to is a scenario where, after oscillation, it once again challenges the previous high, or even breaks through it, followed by a few months of oscillation, and then another bottoming out or even a halving market to thoroughly cleanse the bulls. At that time, a large amount of capital will flow out of Bitcoin profits into mainstream altcoins, accompanied by a rebound in Bitcoin, igniting the main wave of a bull market!

So impressive, the first, second, and third places are all stablecoins, and it's during a $BTC pullback!

#mkr #稳定币

In the top 12 of the price increase list for $MKR $RESOLV $USDC $LQTY, 4 are stablecoins. Along with the well-performing $CRV and the emerging $ena, I have always believed that the two essential sectors in this bull market for altcoins are stablecoins and DeFi. Simply put, one is the entry and exit of funds, and the other is the funding pool, with a strong capital-absorbing ability sufficient to support a large market value!

Of course, the same reasoning applies to CEX and DEX sectors, but CEX has already become the mainstream standard for large funds; while DEX, due to its divergence from regulation, cannot deny its strength, but the path is not as stable as the former.

Moreover, I personally believe that the potential for price increases in stablecoins may surpass that of DeFi—the leading projects in the DeFi sector have mostly surfaced, and there is not much surprise left, while in the stablecoin sector, the big players are still competing to position themselves, and there is currently no absolute leader, which means opportunity!

#稳定币

$UNI is still strong, it has rebounded by 12%, but the probability of going straight up is low, let's wait for a pullback!

#UNI

This morning, it directly broke through the 0.5 rule line at 105446 analyzed in the previous article, probing to the Fibonacci 0.786 support level. The afternoon rebound reached 105434 and then began to pull back. If it does not re-establish itself above the 105446 line by tonight, it is highly likely to probe down to the 103000 line again by 8 AM tomorrow. Whether it can charge towards the previous high again still depends on whether the 105446 line can be broken!

The impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict itself is actually not significant on the major illness. If there is an impact, it is that large funds see an opportunity in gold and have injected some cryptocurrency funds into the gold market! Therefore, the original 5-point pullback has turned into 7 points, but altcoins can see declines of 20%-30%. After several rounds, it is indeed absurd, which can only be attributed to excessive liquidity scarcity!

#以色列伊朗冲突

Well, here we go, the blockchain has been scammed again! From the trading range, there hasn't actually been much trading volume accumulated, and if you have a position of one-tenth and use ten times leverage, a 7% pullback in Bitcoin shouldn't result in such a catastrophic liquidation. I can only say that human nature is too greedy, everyone thinks they are a trading god, with fifty or a hundred times leverage!

To those who have been liquidated and bankrupted, I can only say, don't be discouraged, don't be exhausted, and definitely don't meet on the rooftop; you must bravely continue to gamble! Countless histories tell us that trading gods all started from bankruptcy, and you have finally stepped onto the threshold of becoming a god!

#加密圆桌讨论

The increase of $BTC over the past week has nearly halved within 24 hours, and today the market's calls for a significant drop are particularly strong. Although I predicted back on May 1 that we would test again by the end of May or mid-June, it feels a bit hasty to drop like this as it is expected by the market, which does not align with the usual tactics of the main players!

According to coinglass, the funding rates show
$BTC 7-day funding rate 0.1411%, daily average 0.021%, current 0.0067%
$ETH 7-day funding rate 0.21%, daily average 0.3%, current 0.01%

Long-short ratio: btc long: 48.5% short: 51.5%
eth long 48.7% short 51.2%

From these two dimensions, after killing off a wave of long positions during the day, the current continued decline does not align with the interests of the main players!

Looking at the technical side, both the weekly and daily charts are showing divergence close to the zero axis, which is indeed one of the signals for a trend change. However, in terms of volume, aside from a slight increase around the high point of May 22, the high point from the day before yesterday has been decreasing relative to earlier points. My view is that a decrease in volume indicates a pullback, but not necessarily a reversal; an increase in volume at the top is the real signal for a reversal!

Therefore, personally, I feel that this drop is temporarily a technical pullback and does not signify a reversal of the main players unloading!

There will likely be another attempt to challenge the previous high. As for the pullback point, it is likely around 106600—which is also the Fibonacci retracement line at 0.618. The final defensive line for a wave of increase is generally at the 0.5 rule line:

(High - Low)/2 + Low, which is (110530 - 100372)/2 + 100372 = 105446

Of course, if it breaks below 105446, we will have to test the support level of 100,000 again. So the question arises, where are the 0.618 and 0.5 defensive levels for the upward trend that started on April 7?

Regarding this matter, from the perspective of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, I support it! While both are about making money through deception and gambling, at least among the numerous VC coins, there are a few that genuinely focus on building the ecosystem. In contrast, the meme space has completely degenerated into a haven for scammers, with places like KK Park forming a mature industrial system! Moreover, even leaders of major countries are participating in pump schemes, not to mention those early investors who took the risks and are now self-sabotaging as KOLs!

Considering from the opposite angle, Pump's recent issuance of tokens for fundraising has stirred up quite a buzz, which probably hasn't pleased certain big players. The stronger Pump becomes, the more it is detrimental to VCs and the secondary market. After Ma Yilong's exit from politics, he's using this as a weapon, and it seems like we're about to see some turbulence in the cryptocurrency space again, especially with the lessons learned from $doge and $shib!

Continuing from the previous article's question, where will the rebound peak interval for the next level be? Based on the idea of a short squeeze

Using the formula: take the starting point of the market after a four-hour fluctuation:

105473 + 105473 * 0.09 = 114965, while the current rebound position is 110530,

which is still a bit away from the previous high of 111980, and 4400 away from the calculated point. Using this method to predict

the next market will fluctuate and then push towards the previous high, oscillating near the previous high to hit

around 114965, and then fluctuate!

Is this method practical or not? We will test it out and wait and see!

On the other hand, after a small pullback of $BTC near the previous high, the pullback strength of altcoins has increased. Therefore,

in the midst of Bitcoin's fluctuation, if altcoins rise by more than 30%, we can sell part of them to switch positions and capture the rotation!

#加密市场反弹 #看懂K线