楠言楠哥-币圈灯塔
趋势追随者 金融学硕士 巴菲特理论实践员 货币政策风向标 推特:ethup666 每天会有投研笔记，财富密码！！，相识便是缘分，点个关注不迷路，让我们在这一轮牛市中共同启航
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Every generation will have its own outlet, and every era will have its own mission.
I’m glad that I majored in finance and got involved in the trend of blockchain. I was able to gain a certain amount of wealth in the currency circle in just a few years and keep this wealth.
Many people in the currency circle have gained wealth, but they are like a roller coaster, with ups and downs, and have never kept the wealth. Relatively speaking, I am lucky!
The major in finance and the advantage of joining the industry early allowed me to see the essence of things clearly.
Many fans and students suggested that I set up an investment research community to explain investment research to my family and establish correct investment thinking. Let your family members seize the opportunity and keep their wealth.
I thought about it three times and decided to unite the three institutions and the University of Hong Kong to jointly establish a community. Provide a pure land for all family members, share experiences and lead correct investment concepts for family members.
I’m glad that I majored in finance and got involved in the trend of blockchain. I was able to gain a certain amount of wealth in the currency circle in just a few years and keep this wealth.
Many people in the currency circle have gained wealth, but they are like a roller coaster, with ups and downs, and have never kept the wealth. Relatively speaking, I am lucky!
The major in finance and the advantage of joining the industry early allowed me to see the essence of things clearly.
Many fans and students suggested that I set up an investment research community to explain investment research to my family and establish correct investment thinking. Let your family members seize the opportunity and keep their wealth.
I thought about it three times and decided to unite the three institutions and the University of Hong Kong to jointly establish a community. Provide a pure land for all family members, share experiences and lead correct investment concepts for family members.
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In June, interest rates were cut. Hang in there, family. CPI is at 2.4%. Now is the darkness before dawn.
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Essential Knowledge of the Underlying (Cryptocurrency and Financial Market Knowledge) ---- Nan Ge (Master of Finance)
There is no theoretical framework in finance for the cryptocurrency market; here, Nan Ge will use stocks for comparison.
Making money in stocks can be divided into four types: (this will be compared with the cryptocurrency market)
1: Trading money, buying low and selling high -- Technical Analysis (Candlesticks summarize data; both stock markets and cryptocurrency markets share similarities)
2: Performance growth --- Fundamental Research (Stock Market)
In the stock market, companies are involved, and a company's performance growth, net profit growth, directly affects its stock price.
(This is very different from the cryptocurrency market!!!)
In the cryptocurrency market: it is more complex here.
(1) Technical chains like ETH correspond to technology and are more related to their on-chain activity, gas fees, etc.
(2) Platform coins like BNB are more similar to stocks; they have deflationary mechanisms (like buyback mechanisms in stocks). The price of the coin is closely related to the platform's development, but there are differences; for example, Bianca's financial reports, assets, etc., do not directly influence the price.
(3) MEME coins are purely based on consensus, somewhat similar to penny stocks in the Hong Kong stock market. (They have no fundamentals and rely purely on popularity)
(So, when conducting fundamental research on different types of coins in the cryptocurrency market, there should be particular focus)
3: Dividend money --- Company Profit Dividends
In the stock market, companies will distribute profits to their shareholders as dividends.
The evolution of the cryptocurrency market in this regard surpasses the stock market.
(Staking dividends, TVL. Staking can reduce circulating tokens, stabilize prices, POS can ensure network security, and there are also staking rewards like airdrops, etc.)
(This represents a huge market for the future, including on-chain financial management and other derivatives)
4: Valuation growth money --- (money from quantitative easing and storytelling)
Company benefits and changes in strategic planning will affect the company's valuation.
Additional Knowledge Point (A criticism of the cryptocurrency market is the lack of a valuation anchor; the valuation of tokens is not anchored to a company's revenue, financial reports, or assets. However, this also creates a highly volatile market in cryptocurrencies.)
Due to the weak anchoring effect in the cryptocurrency market, both quantitative easing and storytelling can lead to high volatility in the short term.
Mastering the underlying structure can lead to stable happiness!
There is no theoretical framework in finance for the cryptocurrency market; here, Nan Ge will use stocks for comparison.
Making money in stocks can be divided into four types: (this will be compared with the cryptocurrency market)
1: Trading money, buying low and selling high -- Technical Analysis (Candlesticks summarize data; both stock markets and cryptocurrency markets share similarities)
2: Performance growth --- Fundamental Research (Stock Market)
In the stock market, companies are involved, and a company's performance growth, net profit growth, directly affects its stock price.
(This is very different from the cryptocurrency market!!!)
In the cryptocurrency market: it is more complex here.
(1) Technical chains like ETH correspond to technology and are more related to their on-chain activity, gas fees, etc.
(2) Platform coins like BNB are more similar to stocks; they have deflationary mechanisms (like buyback mechanisms in stocks). The price of the coin is closely related to the platform's development, but there are differences; for example, Bianca's financial reports, assets, etc., do not directly influence the price.
(3) MEME coins are purely based on consensus, somewhat similar to penny stocks in the Hong Kong stock market. (They have no fundamentals and rely purely on popularity)
(So, when conducting fundamental research on different types of coins in the cryptocurrency market, there should be particular focus)
3: Dividend money --- Company Profit Dividends
In the stock market, companies will distribute profits to their shareholders as dividends.
The evolution of the cryptocurrency market in this regard surpasses the stock market.
(Staking dividends, TVL. Staking can reduce circulating tokens, stabilize prices, POS can ensure network security, and there are also staking rewards like airdrops, etc.)
(This represents a huge market for the future, including on-chain financial management and other derivatives)
4: Valuation growth money --- (money from quantitative easing and storytelling)
Company benefits and changes in strategic planning will affect the company's valuation.
Additional Knowledge Point (A criticism of the cryptocurrency market is the lack of a valuation anchor; the valuation of tokens is not anchored to a company's revenue, financial reports, or assets. However, this also creates a highly volatile market in cryptocurrencies.)
Due to the weak anchoring effect in the cryptocurrency market, both quantitative easing and storytelling can lead to high volatility in the short term.
Mastering the underlying structure can lead to stable happiness!
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"Madman" or "Make America Great Again" --- The Gamble of the Wise King
The global market has experienced a 'Trump storm':
US stocks plummet, S&P 500 drops over 5% in two days, Nasdaq tech stocks bleed heavily;
Bitcoin crashes, with a 24-hour decline of over 15%, leveraged longs are wiped out;
Gold and crude oil both fall, while the panic index VIX soars, market risk aversion reaches a high since the 2020 pandemic.
Mainstream opinion points to Trump's 'crazy tariff policy,' believing it to be 'self-defeating' and even potentially triggering a global recession. But is the problem really that simple?
My core viewpoint:
Trump's tariff policy is by no means a 'spur of the moment' decision, but a proactive strike against the deep-seated contradictions of the dollar system.
US stocks plummet, S&P 500 drops over 5% in two days, Nasdaq tech stocks bleed heavily;
Bitcoin crashes, with a 24-hour decline of over 15%, leveraged longs are wiped out;
Gold and crude oil both fall, while the panic index VIX soars, market risk aversion reaches a high since the 2020 pandemic.
Mainstream opinion points to Trump's 'crazy tariff policy,' believing it to be 'self-defeating' and even potentially triggering a global recession. But is the problem really that simple?
My core viewpoint:
Trump's tariff policy is by no means a 'spur of the moment' decision, but a proactive strike against the deep-seated contradictions of the dollar system.
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Nan Ge's Notes (When will the big change come?)
1: Trump takes office and issues currency. 2: Bitcoin: 109,500 (high point)
The overall situation in the circle is one of excitement and FOMO.
How long can this situation last?
1: The key lies in Trump and Musk. As long as they take new actions, there will be a climax.
2: See whether there will be an interest rate cut at the meeting on January 30.
(1) CPI rebounded for four consecutive months, but all in line with expectations.
CPI
Interpretation: Inflation rebounds, and interest rate cuts are likely to slow down.
(2) Interest rate cut observer
January Forecast
March Forecast
Interpretation: The observers in January and March have a paradox. 98% believe that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points in January. 75% believe that the interest rate will remain unchanged in January and will be cut by 25 basis points in March. (The market has a disagreement here)
The overall situation in the circle is one of excitement and FOMO.
How long can this situation last?
1: The key lies in Trump and Musk. As long as they take new actions, there will be a climax.
2: See whether there will be an interest rate cut at the meeting on January 30.
(1) CPI rebounded for four consecutive months, but all in line with expectations.
CPI
Interpretation: Inflation rebounds, and interest rate cuts are likely to slow down.
(2) Interest rate cut observer
January Forecast
March Forecast
Interpretation: The observers in January and March have a paradox. 98% believe that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points in January. 75% believe that the interest rate will remain unchanged in January and will be cut by 25 basis points in March. (The market has a disagreement here)
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Brother Nan's Notes: (Weekend Edition)
Friday's market showed a rebound, just as we expected. Preparing to sell this weekend.
A quick rebound is a good thing, indicating that the market has both heat and depth. However, observing the ETFs, we find that BlackRock's IBIT and ETHA are both selling off.
This indicates that BlackRock also believes the 90K-100K range is a temporary peak.
So here we can take multiple swings. The market will experience wide fluctuations. Let's arbitrage, brothers.
Friday's market showed a rebound, just as we expected. Preparing to sell this weekend.
A quick rebound is a good thing, indicating that the market has both heat and depth. However, observing the ETFs, we find that BlackRock's IBIT and ETHA are both selling off.
This indicates that BlackRock also believes the 90K-100K range is a temporary peak.
So here we can take multiple swings. The market will experience wide fluctuations. Let's arbitrage, brothers.
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Nan Ge's Notes: (Fighting on Friday)
Wait for the deep drop, and be brave enough to go into the mainstream of spot oversold on Friday, and wait for a rebound.
ETH and SOL must seize this wave.
The US stock market will be closed on Saturday and Sunday, and will be closed on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, and Christmas Day.
The closure of the US stock market is the time for the cryptocurrency market to rebound. Seize it! ! ! !
Wait for the deep drop, and be brave enough to go into the mainstream of spot oversold on Friday, and wait for a rebound.
ETH and SOL must seize this wave.
The US stock market will be closed on Saturday and Sunday, and will be closed on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, and Christmas Day.
The closure of the US stock market is the time for the cryptocurrency market to rebound. Seize it! ! ! !
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BTC violently washes out the market, who is actually selling?
After hitting an all-time high of nearly $104,000 yesterday, Bitcoin suddenly experienced a huge fluctuation around 6:30 am on December 6, quickly plunging to around $91,000 within a few minutes, causing a large-scale market liquidation.
Violent market cleansing, who is actually selling the stocks?
According to Nange's data, it is LTH, and long-term holders have taken profits. The average chip holding price is $25,000.
The profit has been 4 times.
All family members need to pay special attention here and be careful of stampedes.
Violent market cleansing, who is actually selling the stocks?
According to Nange's data, it is LTH, and long-term holders have taken profits. The average chip holding price is $25,000.
The profit has been 4 times.
All family members need to pay special attention here and be careful of stampedes.
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Pay attention to the data and don’t fall behind. You must know where the hot tracks are.
Brother Nan’s hottest news in the circle, like first and then read, you will never get lost.
Data analysis of 289 token performances shows that 60% of them rose by more than 100%.
This study uses the data of 289 spot products listed on OKX for analysis. The time range is from November 2 to December 2.
Among the analyzed samples, 4 had a salary of more than 10 times, 11 had a salary of more than 5 times, and 53 had a salary of more than 2 times, accounting for 18.3%.
The number of zhangfu that was more than 1 times reached 171, accounting for 59%.
Among them, the largest increase was in OL, a Web3 gaming platform, which rose by 2784.99%. However, considering that this token was only listed on OKX on November 18, the subsequent trend of this token remains to be seen.
Data analysis of 289 token performances shows that 60% of them rose by more than 100%.
This study uses the data of 289 spot products listed on OKX for analysis. The time range is from November 2 to December 2.
Among the analyzed samples, 4 had a salary of more than 10 times, 11 had a salary of more than 5 times, and 53 had a salary of more than 2 times, accounting for 18.3%.
The number of zhangfu that was more than 1 times reached 171, accounting for 59%.
Among them, the largest increase was in OL, a Web3 gaming platform, which rose by 2784.99%. However, considering that this token was only listed on OKX on November 18, the subsequent trend of this token remains to be seen.
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Established XRP is rejuvenated, is it a flash in the pan? Or a comeback? How far can it go in the future?
Recently, the market welcomed multiple favorable developments, and as an established public chain, Ripple (XRP) has become the focus of the market.
XRP officially surpassed SOL with a market cap of 139.2 billion, becoming the new third brother.
Since its launch in 2012, XRP has focused on cross-border payment scenarios, favored by financial institutions for its efficiency, low cost, and technological innovation.
However, the growth path of this classic token has not been smooth, facing pressure from market competition and frequent setbacks due to regulatory disputes.
Now, as the regulatory environment gradually shifts and market confidence is boosted, XRP seems to be seizing this historic opportunity to redefine its future market positioning.
XRP officially surpassed SOL with a market cap of 139.2 billion, becoming the new third brother.
Since its launch in 2012, XRP has focused on cross-border payment scenarios, favored by financial institutions for its efficiency, low cost, and technological innovation.
However, the growth path of this classic token has not been smooth, facing pressure from market competition and frequent setbacks due to regulatory disputes.
Now, as the regulatory environment gradually shifts and market confidence is boosted, XRP seems to be seizing this historic opportunity to redefine its future market positioning.
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Nange's Past: The Queen of Crypto
The first time I heard about her was from a WeChat group. Inside, she was fiercely debating with another top figure from a different exchange in a group of 500 people, arguing heatedly. At that time, I was enjoying the drama, watching the two of them expose each other's dark secrets, calling it exciting.
That was my first impression of her: fierce.
We often say that choice is greater than effort, but for her, she chose the right path and worked very hard.
At that time, I began to understand this industry. I hadn't yet stepped onto the path of trading. My first pot of gold in the circle came from mining.
That was my first impression of her: fierce.
We often say that choice is greater than effort, but for her, she chose the right path and worked very hard.
At that time, I began to understand this industry. I hadn't yet stepped onto the path of trading. My first pot of gold in the circle came from mining.
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Nang Ge's Notes:
Mainstream cryptocurrencies and the Nasdaq index have both reached a very delicate point.
BTC has begun to show signs of a pullback, with the first target around 87,000. (This is not to encourage everyone to short; in a bull market, we do not short the market. Every pullback is an opportunity to reduce positions at the top or add positions at the pullback level.)
BTC's ETF has seen outflows for two consecutive days. If outflows continue, we can confirm the pullback demand for BTC. Institutional players are starting to take profits and sell off.
The Nasdaq is the most delicate, at the upper end of the high channel; theoretically, it should pull back. However, the buying market is hot, leading to significant disputes between bulls and bears here. (It is expected that an economic data release will be needed to determine the trend.)
ETH currently has only one 'father', which is Grayscale's ETF, the world's largest Ethereum ETF. Grayscale has been continuously selling off; due to their large holdings, their selling method is to sell proportionally based on daily ETH trading volumes to avoid impacting the market.
Grayscale's sub-ETF ETH is also very weak. The current state of ETH is to watch when Grayscale will finish selling.
If BTC and the US stock market's Nasdaq begin to pull back, and Grayscale sells a large amount of ETH, then ETH will face another significant drop. At that time, we can look to buy the dip again. (A money-making opportunity)
The current mainstream issue is the conflict between ETF institutions.
The market is difficult to judge; technical analysis has lost its importance here, all being influenced by institutions, waiting for a consensus among institutional views.
Mainstream cryptocurrencies and the Nasdaq index have both reached a very delicate point.
BTC has begun to show signs of a pullback, with the first target around 87,000. (This is not to encourage everyone to short; in a bull market, we do not short the market. Every pullback is an opportunity to reduce positions at the top or add positions at the pullback level.)
BTC's ETF has seen outflows for two consecutive days. If outflows continue, we can confirm the pullback demand for BTC. Institutional players are starting to take profits and sell off.
The Nasdaq is the most delicate, at the upper end of the high channel; theoretically, it should pull back. However, the buying market is hot, leading to significant disputes between bulls and bears here. (It is expected that an economic data release will be needed to determine the trend.)
ETH currently has only one 'father', which is Grayscale's ETF, the world's largest Ethereum ETF. Grayscale has been continuously selling off; due to their large holdings, their selling method is to sell proportionally based on daily ETH trading volumes to avoid impacting the market.
Grayscale's sub-ETF ETH is also very weak. The current state of ETH is to watch when Grayscale will finish selling.
If BTC and the US stock market's Nasdaq begin to pull back, and Grayscale sells a large amount of ETH, then ETH will face another significant drop. At that time, we can look to buy the dip again. (A money-making opportunity)
The current mainstream issue is the conflict between ETF institutions.
The market is difficult to judge; technical analysis has lost its importance here, all being influenced by institutions, waiting for a consensus among institutional views.
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Brother Nan's Past (My Brother Little Y Liquidated 15 Million)
A brother I hadn't contacted in a long time, little Y, sent me a message. Little Y: Brother Nan, I liquidated, 15 million, all gone, the house is gone too. This will be very painful. I'm preparing to exit the circle and go back to work.
At the moment I saw the news, my heart was heavy, recalling the past stories with little Y.
Little Y was one of my early students who entered the circle in the last bull market. Little Y, born in '98, has a rather lively personality. He's from Guangzhou.
The first time I saw little Y was in my classroom. In a crowd of 200-300 people, I noticed little Y at a glance; his golden hair was indeed striking.
At the moment I saw the news, my heart was heavy, recalling the past stories with little Y.
Little Y was one of my early students who entered the circle in the last bull market. Little Y, born in '98, has a rather lively personality. He's from Guangzhou.
The first time I saw little Y was in my classroom. In a crowd of 200-300 people, I noticed little Y at a glance; his golden hair was indeed striking.
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Nan Ge's Notes:
Finally I have time to calm down and write some notes.
First of all, let me reiterate that interest rate cuts are a favorable cycle. This is the core essence. Don't be disturbed by external noise.
The Nasdaq is still running in the rising channel, touching the top of the rising channel in the short term, and also reaching the Fibonacci and expanding 61.8% position, so there is a need for a correction.
BTC daily line is running in the descending channel, and the cycle is relatively large. Here you can try short-term high selling and low buying. The range is 55000-64000.
ETH finally strengthened, near 2660, the short-term top, you can stop part of the profit. The overall market has a need for a correction, you can wait for 2470 to buy boldly.
The overall market will fluctuate upward in September and October. It is a relatively good trading period again, and the overall market will move more regularly.
Finally I have time to calm down and write some notes.
First of all, let me reiterate that interest rate cuts are a favorable cycle. This is the core essence. Don't be disturbed by external noise.
The Nasdaq is still running in the rising channel, touching the top of the rising channel in the short term, and also reaching the Fibonacci and expanding 61.8% position, so there is a need for a correction.
BTC daily line is running in the descending channel, and the cycle is relatively large. Here you can try short-term high selling and low buying. The range is 55000-64000.
ETH finally strengthened, near 2660, the short-term top, you can stop part of the profit. The overall market has a need for a correction, you can wait for 2470 to buy boldly.
The overall market will fluctuate upward in September and October. It is a relatively good trading period again, and the overall market will move more regularly.
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Nan Ge's Notes:
My Android Binance is no longer usable!!!
Nan Ge suddenly found that his Binance could not be updated, and all update packages could not be downloaded. Unable to click on the APP update download.
I tried to download the browser many times, and found that Firefox, QQ, Baidu and other browsers could not be opened to download updates.
It seems that I must change to a WEB3 phone.
My Android Binance is no longer usable!!!
Nan Ge suddenly found that his Binance could not be updated, and all update packages could not be downloaded. Unable to click on the APP update download.
I tried to download the browser many times, and found that Firefox, QQ, Baidu and other browsers could not be opened to download updates.
It seems that I must change to a WEB3 phone.
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Nan Ge's Notes:
This is a note written at an altitude of 10,000 meters, on the way to Singapore.
#TOKEN2049 The largest industry summit in the currency circle. This time I mainly went to see the founder of sol, future development, and ecological plan.
Token2049 started on September 18, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was on the early morning of September 19. So the key node has arrived.
This node is the beginning of this round of rise.
Regarding ETH's views, many family members know that I am a solid supporter of ETH, but ETH's performance in Q3 is very poor, and the anchor is serious.
The biggest reason: ecology + whale (Grayscale)
First of all, ecology: MEME, the mainstream business of ETH, has been surpassed by SOL's ecology. And gradually replaced.
DEFI is an important ecology of ETH. Many users on the chain are still borrowing frequently. But the copycat is really too bad, and there is no lasting one. The demand for DEFI has dropped significantly.
Whale (Grayscale), Grayscale is the earliest ETH ETF issuer, with a fee rate of 2.5%. The fee rate of the later ETH ETF is only 0.15%-0.5%, a difference of 8-10 times. As a result, everyone who bought Grayscale ETH had to change positions and change to lower-fee products. And Grayscale will let its users change positions. Grayscale also issued a lower ETH ETF product. (Here, some people will have questions, why does Grayscale not directly reduce the fee rate and let users change positions? The reason is very simple: because redemption and repurchase require fees. Early ETHE products require a 2.5% management fee to redeem, and a 0.25% subscription fee to purchase a new ETH ETF. Grayscale must earn this stable fee) PS: This is bullying the lax supervision of the currency circle. If it goes to the securities market, ETH will be smashed like this, and then another fund will buy it again. It is a complete market manipulation. But if you can understand the tricks here, you will find that there are huge opportunities here. Grayscale currently has 4 billion worth of ETH. For the overall market value of 300 billion ETH, I can only say that it has only suffered a short-term impact. The huge fluctuations are due to the weak liquidity of ETH. With the interest rate cut and ecological recovery, ETH will return to the anchor soon.
If you are a new player who is conservative in financial management, then ETH will be the safest
This is a note written at an altitude of 10,000 meters, on the way to Singapore.
#TOKEN2049 The largest industry summit in the currency circle. This time I mainly went to see the founder of sol, future development, and ecological plan.
Token2049 started on September 18, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was on the early morning of September 19. So the key node has arrived.
This node is the beginning of this round of rise.
Regarding ETH's views, many family members know that I am a solid supporter of ETH, but ETH's performance in Q3 is very poor, and the anchor is serious.
The biggest reason: ecology + whale (Grayscale)
First of all, ecology: MEME, the mainstream business of ETH, has been surpassed by SOL's ecology. And gradually replaced.
DEFI is an important ecology of ETH. Many users on the chain are still borrowing frequently. But the copycat is really too bad, and there is no lasting one. The demand for DEFI has dropped significantly.
Whale (Grayscale), Grayscale is the earliest ETH ETF issuer, with a fee rate of 2.5%. The fee rate of the later ETH ETF is only 0.15%-0.5%, a difference of 8-10 times. As a result, everyone who bought Grayscale ETH had to change positions and change to lower-fee products. And Grayscale will let its users change positions. Grayscale also issued a lower ETH ETF product. (Here, some people will have questions, why does Grayscale not directly reduce the fee rate and let users change positions? The reason is very simple: because redemption and repurchase require fees. Early ETHE products require a 2.5% management fee to redeem, and a 0.25% subscription fee to purchase a new ETH ETF. Grayscale must earn this stable fee) PS: This is bullying the lax supervision of the currency circle. If it goes to the securities market, ETH will be smashed like this, and then another fund will buy it again. It is a complete market manipulation. But if you can understand the tricks here, you will find that there are huge opportunities here. Grayscale currently has 4 billion worth of ETH. For the overall market value of 300 billion ETH, I can only say that it has only suffered a short-term impact. The huge fluctuations are due to the weak liquidity of ETH. With the interest rate cut and ecological recovery, ETH will return to the anchor soon.
If you are a new player who is conservative in financial management, then ETH will be the safest
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