Dom Nguyen - Dom Trading

🚨 BITCOIN BEAR MARKETS DON’T CARE ABOUT YOUR FEELINGS

Bitcoin drawdowns follow a pattern most people choose to ignore:
2011: -93%
2015: -86%
2018: -84%
2022: -77%

Same story every cycle:
Volatility compresses as the market matures.
Smaller drawdowns — but still brutal.
Extend the trend.

A ~-70% drawdown from the $126K ATH puts the real bottom at $38K.
Not $69K.
Not $60K.
Not $50K.

Those are comfort levels — not capitulation.
Everyone wants to “buy the bottom.”
Few are willing to wait for maximum disbelief.
I’ll see you at $38K.

🚨 BITCOIN DOESN’T FORGET — IT COLLECTS SCARS

Every cycle, different excuse.
Same outcome.
Bitcoin doesn’t move in straight lines.
It moves through trauma.

Look at the record:
2013 — Bubble Burst
$260 → $70

2014 — Mt. Gox Implosion
$1,000 → $400

2018 — Crypto Winter
$19,800 → $3,200

2020 — COVID Liquidity Shock
$9,100 → $4,000

2021 — China Mining & Regulatory Crackdown
$58,000 → $30,000

2022 — LUNA + FTX Nuclear Event
$69,000 → $15,000

2025 — Tariff War / 10-10 Crash
$126,000 → $84,000

2026 — Epstein Files & Global Sell-off
$88,000 → $60,000

Every time, people say:
“This time is different.”
“Bitcoin is dead.”
“It’s over.”

And every time, Bitcoin survives but only after wiping out certainty.
These aren’t bugs in the system.
They’re the system itself.
Bitcoin doesn’t reward belief.
It rewards endurance.
And years from now, this will just be another memory
people swear they lived through —
or wish they had the courage to.

🚨 THIS IS WHY BITCOIN IS DUMPING EVERY SINGLE DAY

This is not retail.
This is not sentiment.
If you still think BTC trades on simple supply and demand,
you’re looking at a market that no longer exists.
Let me put it plainly.
Bitcoin price is no longer set on-chain.
It’s set in derivatives.
That’s the whole game.

BTC was built on:
21 million supply
No rehypothecation
Then Wall Street layered on:
Perps
Options
ETFs
Lending
Wrapped BTC
Swaps
Same structure.
Same outcome.
This is the exact break that already happened to:
Gold.
Silver.
Oil.
Stocks.
“Paper BTC” exploded.
And once synthetic supply overwhelms real supply, price stops responding to demand.

It responds to:
Positioning
Hedging flows
Liquidations
That’s why the playbook is always the same:
→ Sell into every pump
→ Force liquidations
→ Cover lower
→ Repeat

This isn’t a free market.
It’s a fractional-reserve price system wearing a Bitcoin mask.
Ignore it if you want —
just understand why every bounce fails.
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow. Turn notifications on.
I’ll post the warning before it hits the headlines.

🚨 2026 WILL DESTROY THE “ONE-ASSET” CROWD — DEBASEMENT WON’T SAVE BTC THE WAY YOU THINK

Everyone is screaming “currency debasement” like it’s a free pass to buy anything scarce.
That’s lazy thinking — and 2026 will punish it.
The real question isn’t IF debasement happens.
It’s WHO survives the uncertainty phase and WHO gets liquidated first.
Gold & silver: the uncomfortable winners early on

Here’s the truth crypto hates:
When liquidity is tight and trust cracks, boring beats innovative.
Gold and silver don’t need:
Liquidity injections
Narrative believers
ETF inflows
They don’t get margin-called.
They don’t care about funding rates.
In messy macro environments, metals don’t moon —
they outlast.

That’s why institutions still run to them when things feel wrong.
BTC & ETH: debasement hedge… with a timing problem
Yes, Bitcoin and Ethereum protect against debasement.
But not during the stress phase.
In 2026-style uncertainty:
They trade like high-beta risk
They’re used as liquidity sources
They get sold before “safe assets”
Crypto wins after something breaks:
After leverage is flushed
After policy credibility cracks
After liquidity comes back

Before that?
It’s pain, not protection.
The biggest mistake people will make
They’ll treat all “hard assets” as equal.
They’re not.
In a real macro reset:
Gold/silver = survival
BTC/ETH = recovery weapon
One keeps your capital intact.
The other multiplies it later.
Mixing those roles is how portfolios blow up.
My controversial take
2026 is not a clean debasement rally.

It’s:
Violent
Stop–start
Liquidity-driven
Metals win first.
Crypto wins last.
If you’re all-in crypto expecting it to behave like gold…
you’re betting on the wrong phase of the cycle.
Final warning
Debasement isn’t a trade.
It’s a sequence.
Miss the order —
and you won’t survive long enough to enjoy the upside.
2026 won’t reward belief.
It will reward positioning and patience.

🚨 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS JUST FLIPPED THE SWITCH — AND CRYPTO / CARRY TRADES ARE IN TROUBLE

This is flying under the radar — but it matters more than any single CPI print.
Global central banks are quietly shifting from easing… to HOLD / TIGHTEN.

And that’s a direct headwind for crypto and FX carry trades.
This is the regime change nobody is pricing in
Markets are still trading like:
“Cuts are coming, liquidity will save us.”
That assumption is cracking.
Across major economies, central banks are saying the same thing in different words:
Inflation is sticky
Financial conditions need to stay tight
Premature easing = credibility loss

So instead of cutting aggressively, they’re:
→ Holding rates higher
→ Draining liquidity slowly
→ Letting markets absorb the pain
That’s not bullish.
That’s capital discipline.
Why this is bad for crypto
Crypto doesn’t crash because of bad tech.
It crashes when liquidity retreats.
In a hold/tighten world:
No fresh liquidity impulse
No fast Fed pivot
No global easing wave
Bitcoin becomes:
→ A high-beta macro asset
→ A funding source in stress
→ The first thing sold when risk is reduced
No easing = no sustained upside.
Simple.
Carry trades are the silent victim
This is the part FX traders already feel.
Carry trades depend on:
Stable volatility
Predictable rate differentials
Abundant liquidity

When central banks stop easing:
→ Volatility rises
→ Funding costs jump
→ Risk-adjusted carry collapses
That’s when you get:
Sudden FX reversals
Violent unwinds
“Out of nowhere” crashes
Not because the trade was wrong —
but because the regime changed.
My controversial take
This isn’t a temporary pause.
This is central banks telling you:
“We’re done bailing out risk every time it cries.”

That means:
Crypto rallies will be sold
Carry trades will be fragile
Volatility becomes the norm
Anyone trading 2026 like it’s a liquidity-driven bull market
is trading the wrong decade.
Bottom line
Global policy is no longer easing-friendly.

🚨 STOP BUYING THE DIP — THIS IS HOW PEOPLE GET WIPED OUT IN 2026

Let me say it clearly:
Most people buying “the dip” right now are future exit liquidity.
Bitcoin isn’t underperforming.
It’s doing exactly what a macro risk asset does when liquidity is being strangled.
And that’s the part nobody wants to hear.

❌ This is NOT the dip
If your reason to buy is:
“It already dropped a lot”
“Sentiment is bad”
“Everyone is scared”
Congratulations — you’re early.
And early in a macro unwind is the same as wrong.
A real dip doesn’t feel tempting.
It feels boring, hopeless, and forgotten.
We’re not there.

🔥 The uncomfortable truth about Bitcoin right now
Bitcoin is no longer special in the short term.
It trades like:
High-beta tech
A liquidity release valve
A 24/7 ATM for stressed funds
As long as:
Rates stay restrictive
Liquidity stays tight
The Fed refuses to pivot
Every pump is a sell.
Not because Bitcoin is bad —
but because macro doesn’t care about narratives.

💀 Worst-case bear scenario nobody wants to price in
History is brutal and consistent.
From a ~$126K peak:
A -65% to -70% drawdown is completely realistic
That puts BTC around $38K–$45K
That’s where:
Influencers disappear
Conviction evaporates
“Bitcoin is dead” trends again
Not the most popular take.
But markets don’t bottom at popular opinions.

🧠 My personal stance (take it or leave it)
Buy too early → you bleed slowly
Buy every dip → you run out of ammo
Wait for confirmation → you miss nothing
The real money isn’t made by guessing the bottom.
It’s made by waiting until nobody wants to play anymore.
Bitcoin doesn’t bottom on fear.
It bottoms on indifference.
Final warning
If you’re aggressively buying here because you’re afraid of “missing out”…
You’re not early.
You’re being tested.
The market will give you a chance.
But only after it breaks your patience — or your confidence.
Choose wisely.

🚨 THIS WASN’T A SILVER PUMP — IT WAS A WARNING SHOT

Silver just ripped +20% in 10 minutes on Shanghai futures.
That doesn’t happen by accident. Ever.
This wasn’t speculation.
It was allocation.

While the West plays games with leverage and paper claims,
China is rotating out of U.S. exposure and into physical metals.
Physical > paper.

Always.
Shanghai moves first.
Everyone else reacts later.

This is what’s really happening:
→ U.S. assets get sold
→ Physical supply gets front-run
→ Futures gap violently
→ Liquidity disappears
→ Price resets before anyone can hedge
Once physical tightens, price doesn’t grind — it snaps.
We’ve seen this playbook before.
This is not a healthy market move.
It’s what happens when trust breaks.

Now look around:
→ Dollar rolling over
→ Stocks under pressure
→ U.S. assets being offloaded
→ Physical metals bid hard again
Capital doesn’t know where to hide.
The East is accumulating.
The West is still debating narratives.
Watch the flows — not the headlines.

I’ve studied macro for a decade and called most major dumps.
This wasn’t noise.
It’s another warning.

🚨 CRYPTO DIDN’T DUMP — LIQUIDITY DID

Bitcoin broke $66K.
Not news.
Not fear.
Not fundamentals.
This was a LIQUIDITY EVENT.
Nothing failed in Bitcoin.
Global funding did.

The warnings were already there:
Bond yields spiking
Repo markets tightening
Dealer balance sheets shrinking
Risk models flipping to survival mode
Crypto didn’t move first.
It moved fastest.
That’s why BTC always gets hit early.
This was forced selling.
Not conviction loss — collateral stress.

What actually happened:
→ Margin got pulled
→ Collateral got re-priced
→ Funds cut exposure
→ Liquid assets sold first
BTC trades 24/7.
So it becomes the ATM.
Once $70K snapped:
→ Stops fired
→ Liquidations cascaded
→ Price fell through thin books
After that, machines ran the market.
WHY ALTS GOT OBLITERATED
In stress:
BTC gets sold
Alts get dumped
Narratives die last
That’s why you saw -30% to -60% in hours.
Liquidity left the room.

WHAT THIS MOVE IS REALLY SAYING
This wasn’t the end.
It was a warning shot.
It says:
→ Leverage is still too high
→ Liquidity is fragile
→ The “central bank put” is no longer trusted
Crypto crashes when funding breaks.
That’s what Feb 5 was.

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Not price.
Watch:
Bond yields
Repo stress
Dollar funding
Stablecoin flows
BTC is a lagging indicator here.
I’ve been in this market over a decade.

🚨 THE SAME CRASH PATTERN THAT WIPED OUT WALL STREET IS BACK

In 1929, Roger Babson warned the American economy was about to collapse.
Wall Street laughed.
47 days later, they were ruined.
Babson wasn’t lucky.
He identified a 5-stage pattern that shows up before every major financial crash.

That same pattern appeared before:
– 1987
– 2000
– 2008
And right now?
4 out of 5 stages are flashing red.
That’s not a coincidence.
That’s a warning.

Markets don’t collapse randomly.
They unwind in sequence.
And when people finally agree something is wrong…
the damage is already done.

🚨 MY 2026 MARKET CYCLE ROADMAP (READ CAREFULLY)

This isn’t a prediction.
It’s a structure-based roadmap.
Dec: Bull trap — optimism weaponized
Jan: Sharp breakdown — denial cracks
Feb: $BTC ~$65k — panic selling peaks
Mar: Final flush — $BTC ~$50k, capitulation
Apr: Silent accumulation — smart money loads
May: First bounce — retail already gone

Most will think it’s over.
It won’t be.
The decline continues — not in price, but in participation.
Prepare for what comes next.

🚨 BITCOIN ISN’T “DUMPING” — IT’S BEING ENGINEERED

If you still believe $BTC trades on supply and demand, read this twice.
That market is dead.
This isn’t weak hands.
Not sentiment.
Not retail.

What you’re watching is derivative control in real time.
This didn’t start today.
It’s been building for months.
Now it’s accelerating.
Here’s the line everyone misses:
The moment supply can be synthetically created, scarcity is over.
And once scarcity is gone, price stops being discovered on-chain
and starts being set in derivatives.

Bitcoin already crossed that line — just like:
→ Gold
→ Silver
→ Oil
→ Equities
The original Bitcoin thesis is broken.
It relied on:
→ 21M hard cap
→ No rehypothecation
That died when Wall Street layered on:
→ Cash-settled futures
→ Perps
→ Options
→ ETFs
→ Prime broker lending
→ Wrapped BTC
→ Total return swaps
From that moment, Bitcoin supply became theoretically infinite.
Not on-chain.
In price discovery — the only place that matters.
Enter Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR).
When synthetic supply overwhelms real supply, demand becomes irrelevant.

Price responds to positioning, hedging, and liquidations.
Wall Street isn’t “trading” Bitcoin.
They’re running the playbook:
1⃣ Mint unlimited paper BTC
2⃣ Short every rally
3⃣ Trigger liquidations
4⃣ Cover lower
5⃣ Repeat
This isn’t speculation.
It’s inventory manufacturing.
One real BTC now backs:
→ An ETF share
→ A futures contract
→ A perp
→ An options delta
→ A broker loan
→ A structured product
Six claims. One coin. Same time.
That’s not a free market.

That’s a fractional-reserve price system wearing a Bitcoin mask.
Ignore it if you want.
Just don’t say you weren’t warned.
I’ve called Bitcoin tops and bottoms for over a decade.
I’ll do it again in 2026.
Follow. Turn on notifications.
Because by the time this is obvious — it’s already too late.

🚨 THIS IS A CYCLE INSIDE THE CYCLE — AND THAT’S WHY MOST PEOPLE ARE LOST

This business cycle didn’t end.
It stretched.
And that extension created something most people aren’t seeing yet
a mini liquidity cycle inside the larger one.
We’re still inside the same macro cycle.
But price isn’t moving in a straight line.
The parabolic phase doesn’t start here.
It only begins when momentum turns green and pushes toward yellow.
That part comes next.
The next liquidity cycle has already started.
It’s just early.

This is a cycle within a cycle.
An impulse inside a larger impulse.
That’s why price action feels messy.
That’s why narratives don’t line up.
That’s why the market feels confused.
It’s supposed to.
The move everyone is waiting for
is still ahead of us.
And most won’t realize it
until it’s already in motion.

🚨 THIS IS THE $12 TRILLION PROBLEM NO ONE WANTS TO ADMIT

There’s a massive issue sitting inside the U.S. Treasury market — and almost nobody is talking about it.
Look at the chart.
That huge blue spike?
That’s not “future debt.”
That’s trillions of dollars rolling in 2026.
Not 2030.
Not 2040.
2026.

And here’s the part people are missing:
That debt was issued when rates were basically zero.
Now it has to be refinanced in a high-rate world.
Same debt.
Very different cost.
Let me put this simply.
The U.S. loaded up on cheap money.
Now that cheap money expires.
And it has to be replaced with expensive money.

That means:
Interest costs explode
Cash gets pulled out of the system
Liquidity tightens everywhere
At that point, something breaks.
There are only a few options:
Cut spending
Raise taxes
Or let the dollar weaken
And when the dollar weakens, nothing stays priced the same.
Everything resets.
This isn’t a one-day headline risk.
It’s a structural problem.
A refinancing wall this size doesn’t just affect bonds.
It hits everything.
Stocks.
Housing.
Credit.
Crypto.
You can already see the pressure building.
Even routine Treasury auctions are turning into stress tests:
$58B in 3Y → Feb 10
$42B in 10Y → Feb 11
$25B in 30Y → Feb 12
Settlement → Feb 17

This is how slow-burn crises start.
Not with panic.
Not with breaking news.
With quiet pressure…
until suddenly it’s everywhere.
Most people won’t notice this until markets are already repriced.
I’ve studied macro for over a decade.

I’ve flagged most major market tops before they happened — including the October BTC ATH.
This setup feels familiar.
Follow if you want.
Turn notifications on.
I’ll post the warning before this becomes a headline everyone pretends they saw coming.

🚨 SOMETHING IS VERY WRONG WITH SILVER — AND PEOPLE ARE IGNORING IT

Silver just jumped 20% in 10 minutes on the Shanghai futures market.
Let that sink in.
That’s not normal.
That’s not random.
And it definitely doesn’t happen by accident.
This wasn’t retail.
This wasn’t “market excitement.”
This was intentional capital movement.

China has been quietly reducing U.S. exposure and rotating into physical assets — especially metals.
Not paper contracts.
Not leverage.
Not narratives.
Real metal. Real ownership.

While the West is busy trading derivatives on top of derivatives, China is buying what actually exists.
That silver move wasn’t speculation.
It was positioning.
And when real demand hits a market that’s already tight, prices don’t rise smoothly —
they reset.
Fast.
Violently.

We’ve seen this pattern before:
→ Reduce exposure quietly
→ Secure physical supply early
→ Futures markets gap
→ Liquidity dries up
→ Price adjusts before anyone has time to react
This is why that spike matters.
Because this isn’t how healthy markets behave.
Confidence is fading.
Capital looks lost.
Money is moving, but it doesn’t know where to hide.
→ Dollar weakening
→ Stocks losing momentum
→ U.S. assets getting sold
→ Physical metals waking up again
The flow is clear.
The East is accumulating.

You don’t need headlines to see it.
You need to watch where money is actually going.
I’ve spent over 10 years studying macro flows.
Most major drawdowns look chaotic on the surface —
but the signals always show up first.
This one feels familiar.
Follow if you want.
Turn notifications on.
I’ll post what I’m seeing before everyone suddenly pretends it was “obvious all along.”

🚨 BREAKING — THIS IS NOT A NORMAL SELL-OFF

Bitcoin is getting slammed right before Japan’s emergency meeting today.

This isn’t panic selling.
This is size.

Look at the flows:
BLACKROCK → 15,258 BTC SOLD
BINANCE → 9,367 BTC SOLD
WINTERMUTE → 8,765 BTC SOLD
COINBASE → 9,489 BTC SOLD
That’s over $3.5 BILLION in BTC unloaded in less than 25 minutes.
Let that register.

This doesn’t happen by accident.
This doesn’t happen because of “retail fear.”
This is coordinated pressure hitting the market at a very specific moment.

Liquidity vanished.
Price got pushed.
Stops got wiped.
And it’s happening right before a major macro event.
Call it what it is.
This is active market manipulation in real time —
using size, speed, and timing to force a move.
If you think this is random…
you’re not watching the right data.

🔥 ALTCOIN ROTAT
ION HAS STARTED — AND MOST PEOPLE ARE STILL ASLEEP
Altcoins are breaking out against Bitcoin.
What looked like slow, boring accumulation is now shifting gears.
This is the transition phase — the part most people miss — right before a full-blown altcoin cycle. And if the structure holds, this one could be the most aggressive we’ve ever seen.
Here’s what’s really happening 👇

Bitcoin dominance is leaking.
Capital is rotating — not leaving crypto, but moving down the risk curve.
Zoom out and the macro tells the same story.
Gold and silver already ran hard as safe havens.
Historically, that move comes right before capital pivots into higher beta assets once conditions flip.
Crypto is next.
Now add fuel to the fire.
The probability of aggressive Fed QE is rising.

Every single time fresh liquidity enters the system, risk assets don’t crawl — they explode.
And for the first time in years, regulation is no longer a headwind.
• The GENIUS Act is already law — clear rules for stablecoins, reinforcing USD-backed digital rails.
• The CLARITY Act is nearing final approval — removing uncertainty that kept institutions sidelined.
This isn’t narrative fluff.
This is friction being removed.

When liquidity + regulatory clarity align, capital doesn’t hesitate.
It moves fast, big, and without asking permission.
That’s how rotations work.
They don’t announce the top.
They punish late entries.
And they reward positioning before the crowd believes.
This is not the peak.
This is the ignition phase.
Altcoin rotation isn’t coming.
It’s already in motion.