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💥 Liquidation Levels – Short-Term Overview for Top Cryptos

Our aggregated Liquidation Levels indicator reveals clear differences in trader behavior between BTC and Altcoins:

Bitcoin ($BTC):
BTC surged past $120K in open interest, hitting a key bear (short) liquidation pool, which triggered over $27M in short liquidations in the past 24 hours. Many traders had their stops taken out.

Ethereum ($ETH ):
ETH saw heavy long accumulation over the past 3 days, making it more vulnerable today, with increased long liquidations. Still, net positioning remains long-biased.

$BNB :
Initially, many traders opened shorts, but sentiment has shifted toward longs.
Above $780: Strong short concentration.
Below $740: Bulls may face pressure.

$XRP :
One of the top altcoins with a high short-term long concentration, which has weakened its price.
Below $0.34 could trigger further downside for bulls.

⚠️ Tracking liquidation levels can give you an edge, especially in times of indecision. Avoid unnecessary stops and liquidations.

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🔥 Buy Pressure on BTC & ETH remains strong, according to our Buy/Sell Pressure Delta metric.
Meanwhile, ADA is about to enter a positive zone, suggesting a strategic opportunity to accumulate.
On the other hand, SOL shows relatively lower Buy Pressure compared to BTC and ETH, indicating caution.
📊 About the Metric:
Buy Pressure = Measures how strong buyers are in the market.
Sell Pressure = Measures how aggressive sellers are.
Buy/Sell Pressure Delta = The difference between the two, revealing market imbalance.
✅ Positive Delta = Buying dominates → Potential uptrend.
❌ Negative Delta = Selling dominates → Potential downtrend.
💡 Tip: When Buy Pressure stays high but Sell Pressure starts rising, it could signal a market turning point. Use the Delta to spot trend shifts early.

Stay ahead. Follow the pressure. Make smart moves. 🚀
👉Alphractal .com

$BTC $ETH $ADA

Bitcoin Miners Face Low Profitability, Yet Selling Pressure Remains Low
The current state of the Bitcoin mining industry is raising important discussions about sustainability and competition. Despite facing historically low profitability, miners are still holding onto their BTC reserves. Here are the key points:
1️⃣Transaction Fees at 12-Year Lows
Total fees paid on the Bitcoin network are at their lowest levels since 2012. This is strongly linked to the low on-chain activity this cycle, reducing miner revenues significantly.
2️⃣Low Miner Sell Pressure
The Miner Sell Pressure metric remains at low levels, indicating that miners are not aggressively selling their holdings despite declining profitability.
3️⃣Network Difficulty Still High
Although the hash rate has recently dropped, mining difficulty hasn't adjusted yet. This lag further squeezes miner margins and delays network equilibrium.
4️⃣Hash Rate Volatility Hits Record Highs
The Bitcoin network is experiencing the highest hash rate fluctuations in its history. This is likely caused by large mining operations shutting down ASIC machines, possibly due to falling revenues and low network demand.
While the mining environment is challenging, the fact that miners haven't started selling off their reserves is a positive sign. It’s likely that some mining pools have scaled down operations in response to reduced global usage of the Bitcoin blockchain. As BTC trades above $107K, we may simply be witnessing miners reallocating their hash power to adapt to the current demand.
In past cycles, miners typically sold during rapid price increases and periods of high blockchain activity. The current lack of both suggests a period of adjustment rather than capitulation. For now, it's a matter of closely monitoring the metrics.

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Lower BTC Leverage Compared to December 2024
BTC is currently showing lower leverage than it did in December 2024. According to the Open Interest to Market Cap ratio—a solid indicator of speculative risk in the derivatives market—leverage levels are now lower than what we observed at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. This is a positive sign, as it encourages new positions and increases institutional interest.

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BTC’s Sharpe Ratio is rising again along with the price! This shows that the risk-adjusted return is improving, indicating greater efficiency in Bitcoin’s upward movement.
Stay tuned!

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🚨 Asia now hosts the largest node on the Lightning Network
The new OKX node, with 512 BTC in capacity and 644 channels, is running on Alibaba Cloud in Hong Kong — taking the lead in network liquidity.
Another node gaining attention is Kraken’s, which is interestingly operating from India.
🔍 What stands out?
Historically, Amazon (AWS) and Google Cloud have dominated the hosting of major Lightning Network nodes.
But that’s starting to change...
💡 The rise of Asian players like Alibaba Cloud, OKX, and others signals a potential geographic — and even political — decentralization of Bitcoin’s second-layer infrastructure.
🌏 Are we witnessing the beginning of a new phase for the Lightning Network, with Asia taking the lead?
With some of the most populous countries in the world, Asia holds massive potential to drive the next wave of technological adoption — and Bitcoin’s Lightning Network may be right at the center of it.

🔗Alphractal

Interestingly, Bitcoin has remained above the RSI 1000 trendline — just as it did in previous bull markets.
The last successful test of this trendline occurred near $75,000.
It still seems too early to call this a bear market, as historically, the RSI 1000 had to break below this trendline and retest it (a red flag) before confirming a trend reversal.
Until that happens, this may not be the last selling opportunity — and it could signal that the market still has strength to continue for a few more months.

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#MarketPullback #BTC $BTC

Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio: Opportunity Signal on the Horizon🔭

Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio is presenting an interesting scenario for attentive investors. This indicator, which measures the risk-adjusted return of an asset, is calculated on an annualized basis by dividing excess return by the period's volatility.
Analyzing the chart, we can observe that the Sharpe Ratio (blue line) has not yet reached the upper trend line - a level that has historically proven very accurate as a market peak indicator. Currently, the indicator is in a zone suggesting controlled risk, far from the extremes that characterized the previous tops of 2013, 2017, and 2021.

The upper trend line (red dashed line) has functioned as an excellent signal for moments of excessive euphoria in the Bitcoin market. The fact that we haven't touched this region yet indicates there may be room for additional appreciation in the current cycle.
It's worth noting that current Sharpe Ratio values have historically occurred during both optimistic rallies and pessimistic corrections. This dual nature of the indicator at these levels reinforces the importance of maintaining disciplined risk management strategies, as the market could move in either direction from here.
Investors should monitor this indicator closely, as when the Sharpe Ratio approaches the "Extreme Risk" zone, it has historically been a good time to consider profit-taking.

The current moment suggests cautious optimism: there's still potential, but always with proper risk management - especially considering that these levels have previously marked both strong upward moves and significant corrections.

🔗Alphractal
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#TradingTypes101 #TrumpMediaBitcoinTreasury #BinanceAlphaAlert

$CAKE is looking great for day trading!
It’s the most volatile altcoin on the 30-minute timeframe right now.

Our Alpha signals are unlocking trades with controlled risk.🔥

Every day, I’m getting more confident — this cycle’s Altcoin Season is looking promising.

Opportunities are everywhere… if you know where to look.
👀

🚨There have been 5 Altcoin Seasons since April!
And you didn’t even notice... because you don’t have access to the right information.💡

The market never stops! At any moment, several altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin — and it’s happening right now.

If you look at the intraday, you’ll see waves of micro Altcoin Seasons happening. And guess what?

In the next 15 minutes, a new wave of micro Altcoin Season might start!

That’s how smart money plays: rotating into altcoins, stacking more BTC and stablecoins… and repeating the cycle.
Those who understand the game are always one step ahead.🔥

🚨 The Stablecoin Ratio Channel is flashing its first signs of short-term risk for Bitcoin. However, the Stablecoin Ratio Channel (Long-Term) is only halfway through its cycle!

This powerful metric helps track liquidity shifts between stablecoins and Bitcoin.
🔵 When the ratio is low, it indicates an excess of stablecoins in the market — typically a bullish signal for BTC accumulation.
🔴 When the ratio reaches higher levels, it suggests growing pressure for BTC to be sold back into stablecoins.
Right now, the short-term signal indicates elevated risk, which aligns with the strong resistance we previously mentioned between $113K and $114K. This level could trigger BTC-to-stablecoin rotations.

However, when we zoom out to the Stablecoin Ratio Channel (Long-Term), the metric is only halfway through its historical range.
In previous cycles, this mid-channel region acted as a temporary resistance — sometimes leading to healthy corrections within bull markets.

On the flip side, during bear markets, it also served as a distribution zone before further downside.

In summary:
✅ BTC is likely approaching a short-term resistance.
🔄 However, the macro trend is still undecided. BTC could rally a bit more, face a correction soon after, and then resume its uptrend in the coming months — depending on how liquidity flows evolve.
👉Follow the best on-chain metrics at Alphractal to stay ahead of the market.

🚨 Short-Term Holders Are No Longer Accumulating Bitcoin — Distribution is Back!

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price has pushed Short-Term Holders (STH) to start distributing their coins. But what does this mean for the market?
Historically, when the STH Supply starts to decline, Bitcoin tends to be near major cycle tops. In other words, as the price increases, demand slows down while selling pressure rises — a classic sign that the bull cycle is entering its final stages.
Currently, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price sits at $94.5K, acting as the final support base until this group goes underwater (holds at a loss) again. Meanwhile, the Long-Term Holder Realized Price is at $33K and rising, showing a clear behavioral divergence between long-term and short-term investors.

💡 Onchain Curiosity:
Whenever the STH Realized Price crosses above the LTH Realized Price, it has signaled the beginning of a new Bull Market — every single time. This demonstrates the power of Onchain Analytics.

⚠️ Important Note:
Despite current STH distribution, it’s worth noting that in 2021, Bitcoin still managed to reach new all-time highs even with this behavior. There is still room for upside, but macro onchain signals and the symmetric halving cycle suggest a significant correction could begin after October 2025.

🔍 Dive deeper into Onchain Metrics at Alphractal and stay ahead of the market with data-driven insights.

👀Few investors are taking profits.

Both short-term and long-term holders are holding onto their positions, showing behavior very similar to what we saw after July 2021 — even as BTC reached its all-time high of $69K.

This suggests there is still no widespread euphoria in the market.
For global sentiment to return with strength, BTC may need to climb well beyond $110K — perhaps even $140K.

It’s worth noting: the biggest profit-taking moments in this cycle happened between March and April 2024, and again between December 2024 and January 2025.

Until then, we continue to watch a market that has yet to “wake up” to the potential of the next phase.

Alphractal

🔥Leverage in the Crypto Market: The 4 Key Scenarios
Do you know what can happen when Open Interest (OI) and the Long/Short Ratio (LSR) move together?

🔎 Scenario 1: OI ↑ and LSR ↑
More open contracts and more longs.
🪙 Examples: ETH, TRX, UNI, DOT, CHZ, WIF, VET, SAND, LAND, EGLD, INJ, SUN, FET, LTC, TRUMP
Interpretation:
– Traders are heavily betting on a price increase.
– May signal euphoria or excessive optimism.
What could happen:
– Risk of a long squeeze if the price drops.
– Mass liquidations could accelerate the downward move.
🟢 Uptrend with risk of reversal if optimism is overextended (contrarian signal).

🔎 Scenario 2: OI ↓ and LSR ↓
Fewer contracts and fewer longs (or more shorts).
🪙 Examples: BNX, KAITO, ZEC, IP, EOS, BB, ALPACA, STO, BABY
Interpretation:
– Traders are closing positions and reducing risk.
– Dominated by bearish sentiment.
What could happen:
– Could precede a bullish reversal if fear is overdone.
– Lower leverage = less potential for sharp moves.
🟡 Overall deleveraging and possible exhaustion of selling pressure.

🔎 Scenario 3: OI ↑ and LSR ↓
More open contracts and more shorts.
🪙 Examples: XMR, AAVE, MASK, ORCA, CVC
Interpretation:
– Heavy short positioning.
– New capital entering to bet on the downside.
What could happen:
– If price rises, short squeeze could occur.
– Forced liquidations may drive a sharp move upward.
🔴 High probability of a bullish reversal if buying pressure appears.

🔎 Scenario 4: OI ↓ and LSR ↑
⚠️ Fewer contracts, but more longs.
🪙 Examples: SOL, BNB, XRP, ADA, RUNE, AXS, APT, PEPE, SUI, NEAR, ONDO, TIA, BONK
Interpretation:
– Capital is exiting, but remaining traders are betting on the upside.
– May reflect weak confidence in longs.
What could happen:
– Without buying strength, longs may be liquidated.
– Lacks momentum for sustained upward moves.
🟠 Unstable setup with downside risk if support breaks.

Alphractal

Bears are being liquidated in the short term,but resistance above 105k remains!

That’s right, the recent upward movement in BTC is strongly linked to the derivatives market,
and generally most leveraged positions are longs.
Protect your positions by adding Stop Profit/Loss at strategic levels.

Use our coupon ALTCOIN for 10% off and dominate the market.

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🚨Bitcoin and the Open Interest Cycle: Is History Repeating Itself?
When Whales Reveal Their Next Moves
🔍 The 30-day aggregated Open Interest Delta has just reached the same levels seen back in 2024 — when Bitcoin was breaking new all-time highs near $73K.

📈 A familiar pattern is emerging: alternating cycles of increase and decrease in the Open Interest Delta — what we might call Phase 1 and Phase 2. After a strong buildup of positions (positive Delta), we often see a nearly proportional drop (negative Delta), showing clear cyclical behavior in the market.

🧠 Looking at the 180-day Delta, things get even more interesting:
Sharp drops often signal mass liquidations of over-leveraged long positions.
When the Delta turns negative, it usually indicates a market bottom or accumulation zone.

⚠️ Right now, the 180-day Delta is on the verge of turning negative — a sign that more volatility may be coming, but also that a new consolidation phase is likely.

📊 Overall, Open Interest has not grown proportionally like it did from October 2023 to early 2024 — and again from October 2024 into early 2025. These yearly patterns may suggest a fractal behavior in investor risk appetite.

🐋 Remember: watching Open Interest across major exchanges is one of the best ways to gauge the risk appetite of large whales, as most of these positions are driven by institutional players.

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🚨 Bitcoin is in a Crucial Zone of Indecision!

The Long-Term Realized Cap Impulse is a powerful metric that analyzes Realized Cap momentum, offering true on-chain insight into Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics.

The horizontal line markers highlight curious zones of support and resistance — and right now, Bitcoin is testing a critical region.
A breakout from this level would strongly signal continued demand and potential price appreciation.

⚠️But there’s an important historical observation: this same region was rejected just before the March 2020 Corona Dump, triggering a massive market selloff.

In short, we’re standing at a pivotal moment.
For the more cautious investor, this might be a time to watch, not act — as risk can be high in such sensitive zones.

We'll revisit this post in the future to see how BTC price reacted.

🧠 Explore our FREE metrics and use the coupon ALTCOIN to get 10% OFF the Pro plan during your trial.

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Historically, Bitcoin has been reaching its cycle tops at progressively lower multiples of the 2-year moving average (2Y SMA), signaling a gradual consolidation and reduced volatility.

Initially, the peaks occurred around 2Y SMA ×15.
In 2017, the top hit 2Y SMA ×10.
In the 2021 cycle, it first reached 2Y SMA ×5, then dropped to 2Y SMA ×2.65.
In the most recent cycle, BTC failed to surpass the 2.65× multiple again, showing a narrowing of gains and indicating a more mature and consolidated asset.

Currently, the 2Y SMA ×2.65 level sits at approximately $159,000 — if Bitcoin regains momentum, this will be the major resistance to overcome.

But one thing remains clear: with each new cycle, the potential to stretch gains far beyond the 2-year average is still alive, reinforcing the long-term strength of this market.

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📉 Short-term holders (up to 1 month) are currently out of the game... for now.
Historically, these investors are strongly correlated with euphoric phases in Bitcoin — typically accumulating during rapid price surges.

But today’s scenario is quite different:
🔸 Only 2.36 million BTC are held by them.
🔸 For comparison:
• March 2024: 3.94M BTC
• April 2021 (peak euphoria): 5.44M BTC

This current level is more in line with Bear Market conditions, where sentiment is low and many are discouraged from buying BTC.😶‍🌫️ Is the market still in disbelief?

👉 Track this and other powerful metrics at Alphractal