Alphractal

⛏️ Bitcoin Miners Record the Lowest Selling Pressure Since May 2024!

Historically, periods of low selling pressure from miners have been followed, most of the time, by sideways consolidation phases or even price declines for Bitcoin.
Positive reactions have been rare, occurring mainly in:
December 2012
September 2013
Several months in 2016
July 2021

In most other cases, lateral movement or declines were the dominant trends.
In April 2025, the Hash Rate reached an all-time high, followed by a drop and a slight recent recovery — a movement similar to what happened in April 2021. It's worth noting that April 14, 2021, and April 14, 2023, marked local tops for Bitcoin, highlighting that April tends to be a critical month for mining.
In 2025, a price top did not occur, but the recent Hash Rate decline raises the question: Are we entering a similar weakening phase like in 2021?

Currently, miner selling pressure remains low, suggesting that miners sold their Bitcoins smartly at the beginning of 2025.
A new wave of selling pressure could emerge if a capitulation process occurs in the mining sector. To monitor this, it’s crucial to keep an eye on:
- BTC movements
- Hash Rate trends
- Mining difficulty
- Performance of publicly traded mining companies

🔎 Follow these insights at Alphractal!

🔍 Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Bulls vs Bears at $92.5K

Despite the recent price surge, we still haven’t seen significant on-chain shifts. Bitcoin is currently sitting right at the Short-Term Realized Price — a critical threshold around $92,500. Holding above this level is essential to trigger a shift in market sentiment.
This zone is highly sensitive, where bulls and bears will battle fiercely. Both the Short- and Long-Term Realized Cap Impulse are resting on support levels, which helps explain the recent price reaction. However, a few more days are needed to confirm whether on-chain behavior and risk appetite from key players are truly shifting.
Bulls will aim to push prices as high as possible, while bears will defend the zone just above $92.5K. This tension creates a complex environment ripe for forced liquidations, especially with Open Interest surging over $10B in just a few days — a clear sign the market is once again heavily leveraged.

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Long-Term Holders' Supply is Rising Again, Gaining More Space in Bitcoin's Overall Distribution

Long-Term Holders (LTH) currently hold 14.39M BTC (72.48%), while Short-Term Holders (STH) hold 5.46M BTC (27.48%).
At first glance, this may not look too promising for short-term price action, as historically, periods of continuous accumulation by LTH have often been followed by downward price pressure. That’s because the supply held by Short-Term Holders tends to correlate more closely with current demand and price movements.

However, when we look at the 1-year change in LTH Accumulation vs. Distribution, it clearly shows that Long-Term Holders are back in accumulation mode — which can be seen as a long-term bullish signal, especially considering today’s uncertain global macro environment.

🔗Alphractal

📈 ONLY 9.6% OF BITCOIN ADDRESSES ARE AT A LOSS!
Compared to major crashes of the past, this is one of the lowest levels in history. Compare with:
🔹2012: 84.7%
🔹2015: 76%
🔹2018: 56.2%
🔹2020: 59%
🔹2021: 29.5%
🔹2022: 49%
🔹2024: 21.6%
The current market is still extremely healthy, with approximately 90% of holders in profit! 🚀

🔗Alphractal

💥Bitcoin needs to go well beyond $86,300 USD to restore short-term optimism regarding its price.

This is because it’s a key region known as the Alpha Price, where these levels have historically acted as both support and resistance.
It’s possible that Bitcoin may break slightly above and then fall back down — a potential bull trap.The lower support levels are at $73,900 and $64,700, and if Bitcoin weakens again, these regions are likely to be revisited in the future.In other words, we believe the best course of action right now is to wait, due to the current uncertainty and strong resistance near $86K.
Patience is the key to successful trades.

Alphractal

Switzerland, Bitfinex, and the Lightning Network: a powerful connection ⚡

Did you know that Bitfinex operates two of the main nodes on the Lightning Network?
🔌 These are the bfx-lnd0 and bfx-lnd1 nodes, hosted on servers in Switzerland, using the reliable Google Cloud infrastructure.
📊 When analyzing the number of Lightning nodes per million inhabitants, Switzerland consistently ranks among the global leaders — alongside countries like Iceland and Singapore.
This high density reflects its role as a financial and tech hub, with a population open to innovation and the adoption of Bitcoin and its scalability solutions.
💡 Bitfinex’s presence in Zurich, operating high-capacity nodes with multiple channels, plays a key role in increasing the liquidity and connectivity of the Lightning Network from within the country.
🔥 Adoption is also driven by local initiatives such as Bitcoin Suisse, which in 2021 became the first company in Switzerland to integrate Lightning Network payments.
Switzerland isn’t just keeping up with the future — it’s helping build it.

Alphractal

⚠️Bitcoin is approaching two powerful support zones:
Active Realized Price at $70,730 and
True Market Mean Price at $64,480.
These levels have historically acted as key support, including:
🔸The major dump of May 2021
🔸The bottom in January 2022, deep in the bear market
🔸The precise support range between 2023 and 2024

🔍 How they’re calculated:
True Market Mean Price = Investor Cap / Active Supply
Active Realized Price = Realized Price / Liveliness

🧠 While Active Realized Price reflects market behavior through realized price absorption and liveliness,
True Market Mean Price goes deeper—it's tied to investor capital and active supply, making it a stronger support level and a high-probability bottom zone.

These metrics are part of the Price Dynamics Models, a powerful blend of valuation indicators from on-chain analysis.

👉 Use this information to shape your strategy, and explore more advanced metrics at Alphractal

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the United States just hit the highest level in U.S. history — and the S&P 500 is experiencing some of the highest volatility since the Corona Dump.

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🚨 Short-Term Holders Are Not Accumulating Bitcoin! What Does This Mean? 🚨

According to Supply Age Bands, which categorizes Bitcoin supply by age, the Supply of Short-Term Holders (STH) up to 3 months is experiencing a sharp decline, indicating a reduced interest in accumulating/buying BTC. Historically, high values of this indicator have been observed during periods of euphoria and public interest, while low values have coincided with price corrections.

By analyzing the Supply up to 6 months, we can better understand the importance of Short-Term Holders to Bitcoin: when the supply increases, the price tends to rise; when it decreases, the price often follows. Tracking this behavior daily is crucial, as a continuous decline is not a good sign.
However, historical precedents show that even with a drop in STH Supply, Bitcoin can still reach new highs. In 2021, the STH Supply started declining in April, yet BTC hit new all-time highs in October and November. Similarly, in 2013, the supply rebounded within a few months, leading to new highs in the short term.

This suggests that, despite the current lack of interest from Short-Term Holders, we cannot rule out the possibility of new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2025. We've discussed this scenario before, and if it materializes, it could take at least another 6 months.

Track these metrics at Alphractal🚀

$BTC

🐳 Whales Are More Interested in Shorts Than Retail with BTC Above $85K 💰

In the past few hours, BTC has surged past $85K, but interestingly, whales are leaning more towards Short positions than retail traders.

📉 Altcoins: While whales still dominate the altcoin market, they are mainly closing their Longs and holding their Shorts—except for a few altcoins like XVG and ALICE, where whales are currently favoring Long positions.

🔍 Why It Matters? Whales tend to have more accurate trades than retail traders, and this Heatmap reveals their current sentiment.

🔥 Discover this and other Alpha metrics to make smarter decisions at Alphractal 🚀

BTC Open Interest Drops $7B in the Last 7 Days! 📉

Over the past 7 days, Bitcoin's Open Interest has declined by -$7.4B, with all exchanges showing a drop—except for Bitfinex, which saw a slight increase. This Monday's volatility was driven by the massive liquidation of leveraged positions.

💡 Interesting Fact: Despite this sell-off, the aggregated Funding Rate remains positive, indicating that long positions still dominate at the current price level.

🚀 Want to track these metrics closely? Check out Alphractal! Access our free metrics and explore all Alpha metrics with a 3-day trial.

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🚨 The Next Big Buy Signal Is Coming! Stablecoin Ratio Channel Is Flashing an Opportunity! 🚨

The Stablecoin Ratio Channel has been a reliable signal for identifying optimal Bitcoin and Altcoin accumulation zones—and we are approaching another major setup! 🔥

🔹 What’s Happening?
The MarketCap of Stablecoins is increasing daily, fueled by new issuances and the conversion of altcoins into stablecoins.
Historically, when the Stablecoin Ratio Channel reaches the lower dotted line, it has marked excellent buying opportunities for Bitcoin and altcoins.
This happens because there’s an abundance of stablecoins relative to Bitcoin’s market cap, a pattern that typically aligns with Bitcoin price drops.

💡 Why Does It Matter?
The Stablecoin Ratio Channel (Long-Term) removes short-term noise by applying a 90-day RSI to the SSR Oscillator and smoothing it with a 7-day EMA. This helps identify sustained market trends, providing clear buy/sell signals for strategic positioning.

📈 Key Mechanics of the SSR Oscillator:
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s market cap by the stablecoin market cap and smoothing it with a 200-day moving average (SSR 200 SMA).
Bollinger Bands (±2 standard deviations) are used to define overbought and oversold conditions.

The SSR oscillator highlights extreme deviations:
🔵 Blue Signals → Low oscillator values indicate buying opportunities.
🔴 Red Signals → High oscillator values warn of potential market trend shifts.

🚀 A Major Buying Signal Hasn’t Happened… Yet! But history tells us that when it does, those who act fast are rewarded. Stay sharp, the next big move is on the horizon!

🔗Alphractal

The annualized Sharpe Ratio of Bitcoin is declining, reaching levels similar to those in 2023, 2020, 2019, and 2016, and entering a neutrality zone (near 0). This indicator, which measures risk-adjusted return per year, shows that BTC is offering less return per unit of risk. Historically, when the annualized Sharpe Ratio drops, Bitcoin's price tends to enter phases of consolidation or correction, as seen in those years, before new movements. Heads up: this could signal a market pause, with consolidation in the coming weeks being the most likely scenario.

Alphractal

⚠️The 1-year Percentage Change of Bitcoin is approaching the negative zone. Out of the four times this has happened, three led to bearish movements, while one had no significant effect.

Since an asset’s historical variation is used to calculate various market metrics—widely utilized by funds and banks—the negative zone can be seen as a period of lower risk and return but also lower apparent volatility.

If Bitcoin follows the pattern seen in 2020, we might just be going through a normal consolidation phase. Otherwise, it is likely that the metric will continue moving into the negative zone, increasing the chances of new lows.

Alphractal

A balance between Long and Short positions has formed in Bitcoin over the past three days. The values are nearly equal, with a slight advantage for Longs. However, over the last seven days, Longs still dominate. Overall, the main liquidation pools are around $89K and below $83K. Regardless of Bitcoin's direction in the coming hours, many traders will be liquidated.

🔍 Alphractal

In the past 7 days, Bitcoin has accumulated more long positions, peaking when it first broke above $88K. During this same period, the highest trading activity and open interest occurred at $84K. If the price drops below $84K, current long positions could be at risk, potentially benefiting those who entered short positions above $88K.

🔎 Alphractal

🐳Whales entered Shorts at $88K USD.

The "Whale Position Sentiment" is an innovative metric that considers the relationship between aggregated Open Interest and the largest trades across various exchanges (≥ $1 million USD).

When the Whale Position Sentiment starts to decline, even if the price temporarily rises, it is a strong signal that whales are entering short positions, which may lead to a price drop. The same applies when the metric rises, indicating whales are in long positions, driving the price up.

🔥Access this Alpha metric at Alphractal

🐳Whales Enter Short Positions on Bitcoin as Leverage Increases!

Whales have decided to close their long positions and open shorts as BTC surpassed $87k in the short term. Additionally, the Open Interest/Market Cap ratio is rising again, signaling increased market leverage. This could trigger a new wave of volatility, leading to further mass liquidations!

🔗Alphractal