🚨Bitcoin and the Open Interest Cycle: Is History Repeating Itself?

When Whales Reveal Their Next Moves

🔍 The 30-day aggregated Open Interest Delta has just reached the same levels seen back in 2024 — when Bitcoin was breaking new all-time highs near $73K.

📈 A familiar pattern is emerging: alternating cycles of increase and decrease in the Open Interest Delta — what we might call Phase 1 and Phase 2. After a strong buildup of positions (positive Delta), we often see a nearly proportional drop (negative Delta), showing clear cyclical behavior in the market.

🧠 Looking at the 180-day Delta, things get even more interesting:

Sharp drops often signal mass liquidations of over-leveraged long positions.

When the Delta turns negative, it usually indicates a market bottom or accumulation zone.

⚠️ Right now, the 180-day Delta is on the verge of turning negative — a sign that more volatility may be coming, but also that a new consolidation phase is likely.

📊 Overall, Open Interest has not grown proportionally like it did from October 2023 to early 2024 — and again from October 2024 into early 2025. These yearly patterns may suggest a fractal behavior in investor risk appetite.

🐋 Remember: watching Open Interest across major exchanges is one of the best ways to gauge the risk appetite of large whales, as most of these positions are driven by institutional players.

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