1. Trend based Fib extension points to 0.232 USD at Dogecoin. 2. If to measure the previous high 0.208 to the 0.13 low, the relation shows to 0.202, 0.2256, 0.357 USD levels
Different factors influence the price and it can change under their pressure. Let is analyze the facts of the recent market movements.
2025-05-7 22-00
The major part of Bitcoin growth lasted 24 hours: from May 7 22-00 CET to May 9 2-00 CET +9%; The next 3 days and 8 hours the price was consolidating on the same level.
Bitcoin dominance was overheated.
Domination began to fall on May 7 at 10 p.m. This downward movement lasted 4 days 16 hours, and reached 0.386 Fib ratio, (The wedge base to top 62.2%, -4.66%)
Important takeaways: 1) Domination fell without looking at Bitcoin's rise. 2) Domination continued to fall in the days while BTC consolidated. 3) Now we see Domination rising, despite the fact that Bitcoin price started to fall, in the last hours! 4) The price of altcoins is falling right behind the price of Bitcoin.
If we get confirmation of this trend continuation, we can make a logical conclusion: the altcoin season will start after the current downtrend is over at BTC.
Earlier I gave the bottom target I expect for BTC. I assume that BTC.D may reach 72.98%, which is near the 2021 Jan top. Because Fib ratio of the wedge base to 1sw h points there.
Conclusion: It seems that dominance has been falling precisely because there has been strong pressure to buy altcoins. However, as money flowed into altcoins, they sold with the same magnitude, following the bitcoin price.
PS: I'll continue to investigate the move tomorrow and compare a couple more charts and metrics.
If you look at BTC closely, you can spot a 3-5-3 structure. What is interesting, the B wave is taking form of regular Flat, the reaction norm for the figure usually between 100 and 165% as long as wave A, thus 56k.
In other words, i think uptrend will end at 107K.
The scenario will be invalidated if the price consolidates above the sloping trend line for at least 2 days, but it will not happen. At least, it is not my base scenario :)
Take a carefull look at the blue/red degrees labeling and highlated rectangles. This is a wave degrees labeling and norms where any ensuring reaction should last.
1) If the markup is correct, the whole structure is a first wave.
2) The current reaction is a micro degree wave, the blue numbers. Consequently, a bearish 5 wave, micro-degree, may be ahead of us!
3) This fifth wave ends the sequence of wave 1, the minor degree. The first waves are usually corrected almost completely, 60-80%. That is, we could see another rise, within the 2nd wave, minor degree.
However, the 3rd waves usually are the strongest in the sequence, that is, stronger than what we had from 2024 December to April.
This is Dogecoin dominance chart. The global trendline has been tested 4 times up to this moment. The 4th test gone under the line. Up to this moment the figure tested the global trend line and has not tested the pattern support trend line.
The fact is - basement of the current pattern is 70% lower. The pattern does not look finished.
It may turn out that the yellow rectangle is an independent component of this figure. This will be confirmed if price settles below the global trendline.
If price will settled below the pattern basement trend line, this will confirm the pattern is - ENDING DIAGONAL. The target of the ending diagonal is 0.028 USD, at least.
I am a bear. Here are my general expectations for the crypto market movement. This is the updated labeling of the wave degrees on usdt dominance chart.
The minimum values I want to see are 64k in BTC. 0.1185 in Dogecoin.
Possibly ending diagonal at 1 minute time frame DXY. Why this is important? Because we have the same pattern at Dogecoin 1w time frame. This is an opportunity & occasion to watch and understand how the formation behaves in real time and what could be anticipated.
2025-04-28 22:30 CET
As for my target, they are the same i forecasted 2024 November.
Many ratios and norms indicate that 0.1185 USD could be the bottom of the current formation on Dogecoin.
Just remember it to you one more time, for free. And wish you a fat profit! 😎🤑
Congratulations to those who have been watching the market moves together with me. The forecasting strategy worked just perfectly!
It is 73% since i recognized the trend, from the top to the bottom + plus we had 2 more opportunities to reverse in the middle and trade it. Hope you are in fat profit.
If the waves count correct, the downtrend that began in December 2024 is in terminal stage now.
Once usdt.d above 6% i think IT IS TIME TO GET UP AND WATCH MARKET. If you are in SHORT, it is time to close position.
You know my targets for BTC and Dogecoin. I've been pointing them out all along the way. It's time to reverse to LONG.
The next swing at Bitcoin may reach 85 - 100k range. After that i am anticipating ~54k.
1. We have a compound wedge figure at BTC dominance chart. This is an ending pattern.
That is why my base scenario is test of upper trend line and a mini alt-season after this. The targets are marked by red marker on the chart.
Please note there is a small probability BTC Dominance will set above the trend channel. This would mean that the chart will continue rise till the ~80%. But this is an alternative scenario, not my base case.
1. if you in short position, 0.12885 USD might be good point for take profit, because there is the end of 4w micro degree of the previous impulse
2. 0.11666 might be good entry point for futures position. I think so due to compound structure of previous impulse: the ensuring corrections norm is the 4w bottom, if we had an extension - 4w of that extension.
3. A little more safe entry point might be 0.1035 USD per single Dogecoin because there the end of 4w of minor degree. But the norms says that the terminal point should be near 4w of the extension - 0,1156.
In December 2024 i forecasted dollar index at ~112 in the Aprile 2025. The odds it may goes up, for the second test is higher than vice versa. You know backward correlation on cryptocurrency market
1. All of next week will be down, I think. 2. I was pointing to BTC 73400, then 90k, then 53k. But a more aggressive scenario could take place - 53k next week.
That doesn't really matter. What is really matters is that: - my base scenario I've been talking about since Feb 3 is triggered.
- crossing the red line on the chart is an early indicator of the end of the bull market. Thus, there are 2 final sub-waves to the end. Thus, it is simply an early indicator of a bear market.
See the values where the end of this decline is marked on the chart
Here is an alternative look on the market situation.
This part at usdt.d may indicate indirectly that we are dealing with a hidden subwave. Although this part is shortened here, the hidden subwave can be somewhere one degree higher.
Take a look at BTC, for example. This part may be a prove that we have an extended 3d wave.
Which could indicate indirectly that the stretching of the bull market.
I am going devote more time to analyze the waves count and find evidence.
bitcoin dominance is not going to cool down. I think it will test upper trend line at 65.3%. The previous test was 2025 2 February, which was accompanied by 10+ Bn liquidations.
1) When the chart will consolidate above 5.71%, i.e. above the sloping downtrend line, this would be an early indicator of the starting bear market, because this line is global for the current, yet bull market.
2) The chart more likely will reach 6.58% because it coincides with 4 sub wave FIB retracement ratio.
The fourth sub wave coincides with the bottom trend line. USDt.D is leading indicator for the whole cryptocurrency market, that is why i think altseason might be shallow.
In the Aprile 2025 Dogecoin is likely to reach at least 0.11853 USD, I think so because:
1) 1.618 Fib at doge chart refers to the current false breakout as part of wave 4 2) We have trendline there. I recognize it as diagonal pattern 3) We had a massive horizontal trading volume level there at 2024
Due to the Diagonal pattern, I see probability that Dogecoin may reach 1.7 USD in this cycle but i think it is max and the odds are low.