鬼谷研究院

Now, Bitcoin has entered an era dominated by institutions, with retail trading sharply decreasing.
The chips are all in the hands of institutions, and during this time, they are just continuing to wash and absorb, pushing retail investors off the bus.
Then they will pump it to 300,000 USD to create FOMO, making retail investors loan money to buy back in.

On-chain data shows that,
BTC has been net flowing out of exchanges during this period,
stablecoins have not seen significant outflows.

Overall, the world situation will remain stable for a while, with US inflation declining and unemployment rising under the impact of AI,
The Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates.

The flat is not flat, it's messy.

[🚀]2025.11.4

Brothers, good morning. The recent market is really tough.
The AI trading competition just ended, and even DeepSeek only made 5%. Many AI models have lost everything.
The 12 consecutive winning whale originally made 30 million USD, but now has lost 18 million USD.
Maji exploded again last night, and the account only has 17,000 USD left; any Bit Eagle group friend can easily exceed Mago's funding.

Meanwhile, Insider哥, who profited from the 1011 crash, continues to increase long positions, currently long on BTC and ETH.
The giant whale 7Siblings has also bottomed out with 55.15 million USD in ETH.
The giant whale Owen Gunden has sold over 1000 BTC, with over 7000 left in the address.

The greed index has dropped to over 20!
Should we be greedy now, or follow the fear?

Looking ahead, there are a few factors:
(1) The U.S. government shutdown is now turning into an opportunity, as both parties' senior officials have released signals to restart.
The U.S. government has been closed for over a month,
it should be able to resume operations in mid-November.
One of the factors that the market has been panicking and worrying about has been resolved.

(2) The average cost of BTC
Currently, BTC is hovering around the 100-day average price, with profits only among ancient whales.
The network's computing power continues to rise, and we can see miners are still investing money.
The high average cost gives us a reason to remain optimistic.

(3) Future interest rate cuts
The U.S. business community, congressional members, and former government officials are joining forces to “surround” Trump, just to eliminate tariffs!
Meanwhile, the U.S. has reached agreements with multiple countries to lower tariffs.
These are beneficial for reducing prices, lowering inflation, and conducive to interest rate cuts in 2026.

So rationally speaking, there’s no need to panic. If you have bullets, you can buy in batches, a little each day.
But be careful of the spread of panic, as there might be another wave of downward pressure.
Prioritize BTC rather than altcoins!

Guigu Morning Report
Precise Market Analysis 10.29

Good afternoon, brothers.
Has the bear come? Will there be a big crash?

Tonight at 2:30, Powell will give a speech,
The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of October.
There will be another rate cut in December, and two more in the first half of next year.
So the issue is not too serious.

(1) What is the recent on-chain data situation?
Let's first look at the on-chain data:
1. BTC continues to flow out of exchanges, being bought up.
2. Stablecoins continue to flow into exchanges.
The probability of BTC rising in the future is greater than that of it falling,
but altcoins are generally falling amid BTC's rise and fall.

(2) What are the holding suggestions?
Allocate BTC to over 50% position.
Then allocate other positions to SOL, BNB, ETH.
Do not exceed 10% for all other altcoins combined.
Additionally, buy some gold,
keep a small amount of funds for on-chain trading of memes and hot topics.
Do not give money to other project parties anymore.

(3) How high can BTC go?
Conservatively estimated, long-term over 300,000 USD.
By the end of this year, around 150,000 USD.
In 2025, whale addresses accumulated approximately 681,000 BTC, while veteran players in the crypto space showed a net reduction in holdings.
Institutions are buying crazily, and long-term demand remains strong.

(4) Can we still enter? What can we buy?
The best bottom-fishing opportunity was on the 11th and last week, but most people are shorting and cutting losses.
Currently, BTC, BNB, and SOL can be entered, but short-term drop is not ruled out.
Don't think that once we get in, it will keep rising; no one can do that, we can only bet on the big direction.

(5) Risks to be aware of
Be wary of black swans; a sudden crash on October 11 could be devastating.
No matter how much it rises in the future, if we get liquidated in between, it won't matter to us in the future.

Guigu Daily Report
Precise Market Analysis 10.22

Brothers, good morning. Last night there was a big surge, and this morning it has dropped back down.
What exactly happened?
Will it crash? Let's analyze a few questions.

(1) What was the reason for last night's big surge and subsequent drop?
It started with news that the EU was negotiating a peace agreement with Ukraine and Russia, which caused the surge.
Then it was reported that Trump imposed a 155% tariff on China.
Trump also said that negotiations with Putin are fruitless and unnecessary, leading to the drop.

(2) Enough with the nonsense, will it rise or fall next?
Although there is this big concern with Trump, from a holding cost perspective,
there aren't many profits for BTC, and the current cost of BTC is reasonable.
The probability of rising is greater than that of falling.

(3) What to pay attention to recently?
Focus on two points:
1. The CPI data released on Friday.
2. When will the U.S. government reopen?

The Labor Department is not working, and there are doubts about the CPI data released on Friday.
The current market risk is concentrated in the lack of credible economic data, leading to high uncertainty,
which is why BTC has been unable to rise.

(4) When will the market improve?
We have just experienced the biggest drop in the crypto world in the past 10 years, and many have lost everything.
People's confidence needs to be restored, and funding needs to continue to flow in,
whether from salary deposits or borrowing money,
it will take some time, at least starting from 1 month, likely until mid-November.

(5) Will BTC crash?
It's hard to crash; the current bottom is very solid, near the cost lines of whales and large capital.
In this round of major drops, whales are still accumulating.

(6) Can we buy the dip? What to buy?
You can buy, but invest a little every day, and buy in batches.
However, you must accept the possibility that it may still fall after buying the dip; this is unavoidable.
No one can catch the absolute bottom.
Prioritize buying BTC.

(7) Will there be a bull market again?
There will not be a comprehensive bull market;
BTC may have a bull market, but altcoins will not, and there won't be any altcoin season.

(8) What is the biggest risk currently?
As mentioned before, it is Trump.
He may exacerbate international conflicts and intensify the trade war.
Additionally, millions of people in the U.S. are protesting against him, threatening his rule.
The U.S. government has been shut down for nearly 3 weeks, and there is still no solution. The infighting between Trump and the Democrats is intense, leading to a certain negative impact.

STBL insiders sold off 17 million, retail investors should be cautious.
The on-chain tracking tool Bubblemaps revealed explosive news: all five internal associated addresses of the STBL project have completely sold off, totaling 17 million USD.
Such operations are quite common in the cryptocurrency circle, but the problem is that these five addresses were almost emptied simultaneously, and they are all wallets related to early participants or the team. The collective sell-off by insiders, regardless of the reason, significantly undermines market confidence. Either they believe the project has reached its end, or they have reached their expected profit targets and are preparing to withdraw.
Retail investors should take this news seriously. While taking profits is a normal operation, the sell-off by insiders often carries more directional significance than ordinary trades. In the short term, STBL's price may come under pressure, after all, a sell-off of 17 million is not a small amount. It is recommended that those holding positions pay attention to whether the project party has responded to this, and also assess their own risk tolerance; if necessary, it is advisable to cut losses.

Today, this matter is truly a scene of a 'world-class amateur troupe'.

In the morning, the so-called 'compliant and stable' stablecoin issuer Paxos did something outrageous——
They directly minted 300 trillion PYUSD for themselves.
Yes, you read that right, not 30 billion, nor 3 million, but 300 trillion!
You have to know, this is the issuer behind PayPal's official stablecoin.

As soon as the news broke, the community exploded.
Everyone thought the system had been hacked, there was an algorithm error, or that PYUSD was preparing to moon.
So what happened?
22 minutes later, Paxos hurriedly destroyed these 300 trillion tokens,
and then 're-minted' a normal value——300 million PYUSD.

The truth of the matter is said to be very simple——
The technician added a few extra zeros.
One-click money printing, start, directly scaling on-chain.

If this had happened in the traditional financial system, it would have been on global news headlines;
but in the on-chain world?
Blockchain explorers see through it at a glance, the whole network watches.

It's also a small reminder:
Even the most 'compliant' issuers cannot escape the fate of 'human error'.
The decentralized world seems aloof, but it's still a system created by humans,
and humans, after all, are the most stable unstable factors in the universe.

#PYUSD #Paxos #Stablecoin #CryptoCircleAmateurTroupe

As a long-time fan of $UXLINK, I have always felt that this social leader has great potential; the Korean KOLs can be said to have absolute faith in this project.

Today, a friend from Korea asked me how many more there are, and casually looked at a few signals from @UXLINKofficial internally. To be honest, it's quite worth paying attention to:

① Extremely low circulation, significant market elasticity.

Now, during this period until the end of November, no more than 5% of the entire supply can be circulated in the market. This means that:

There are few coins available for purchase in the market, and with a little trading volume, the price can easily fluctuate. More importantly, most positions are still locked over in Korea and won’t be dumped randomly. At this time, it’s like a spring being compressed; as soon as there is a little capital stimulus, it can easily bounce up.

② Security incident? No impact on the fundamentals.

There was a bit of a commotion recently, but it didn’t cause any real damage. Users are still active, the business is still profitable, and the traffic on the social layer hasn’t dropped at all.

Compared to those projects that are still relying on "telling stories" to gain popularity, we actually have something running that can generate profit.

③ The project party is preparing to buy back (Buyback).

This point is quite crucial. The project party personally buying back their own coins is equivalent to supporting the market.
This is not only a signal but also an attitude— I have confidence in myself and I am willing to spend money to support the price.

Overall, the combination of these three things conveys the message that I understand as follows:

Low circulation → good market;
Stable business → great potential;
Official buyback → support?

When the wind blows, will the pig fly? Got it?

The first crypto dog in the coin circle

Sister is mighty

Precise Market Analysis 10.6

Good morning, brothers, BTC is still strong, not dropping.
Congratulations to the brothers who are in the market, those who bought the dip last week are blessed.
BNB has unknowingly reached $1200, we recommended it from over $300 to now, it has increased 4 times.
This is the power of long-termism, accumulating small amounts over time,
rising a lot, falling little, it only takes 1 year to earn a good amount.
At the same time, gold prices are about to break $3900!

The core reasons behind this have been summarized many times,
if you grasp the core reasons, you will not be affected by short-term fluctuations:
The devaluation of American credit, the fall of the dollar, large funds seeking a safe haven,
it's either buying gold or buying BTC.

Recently, there has been infighting between the two parties in the U.S., government shutdown, and Trump may initiate large-scale government layoffs.
It can be seen that the two parties in the U.S. are already irreconcilable, infighting internally and inept externally.
Over the long term, there will inevitably be a civil war one day,
when the time comes, U.S. stocks will plummet, U.S. bonds will plummet, the dollar will plummet,
funds will migrate massively to gold and BTC.
But digital assets other than BTC are not considered risk-resistant assets and will all fall.

In this market, it is highly likely that BTC will continue to rise,
other altcoins will rise a bit, BTC will drop slightly, and altcoins will drop back,
the final result is that by the end of the year, BTC rises to 150,000 dollars,
most altcoins will not rise but will fall.

Current strategy summary:
Position recommendation is 70%, leave 30% for bullets.
Holdings should mainly be BTC, which should be greater than 30% of the position, with other mainstream coins as a supplement: ETH, SOL, BNB.
All altcoins combined should not exceed 10% of the position.
Do not chase after rises, wait for small corrections these days.

$DYDX Check out my latest transactions and see if you can surpass me!

🧐🧐🧐

Be careful, I almost got tea drunk.

Brother Majie is back again

30 minutes ago, a short position on Aster was opened with a cost price of 1.055 USD, which was triggered by 19 orders, suspected to be a batch deployment of the Aster short position.
Currently, the brother is going long on $HYPE and shorting $ASTER at the same time.
According to his past style, he should be adding to his position and placing a bet.

UXLINK just entered the European and American markets yesterday and announced a solid governance vote. To break it down, this time @UXLINKofficial's governance vote actually involves two major issues:

① Unlocking 4.5% of the $UXLINK tokens in advance, but not directly flooding the market.

The official meaning is: to transfer this portion to a multi-signature wallet (equivalent to a transparent safe) first, and then use it when the major exchange goes live. This way, the project team has "bullets" on hand to support liquidity, make markets, or even collaborate, but it doesn't mean they will immediately release it into the market, so there’s no need to worry about the old trick of "early unlocking = selling pressure."

② Strategic reserves will increase BNB.
Previously, the reserves mainly consisted of BTC + $UXLINK, but now they will also add $BNB. Why? Because $BNB is hard currency circulating in CEX, especially when dealing with large exchanges, using $BNB as chips makes it easier to acquire resources. In other words, this is to prepare some general currency in advance for future "listings and collaborations."

👉 To put it bluntly, what this vote decides is:

Should the project team take out some chips to put in the safe for later use when listing?

Should they change the strategic reserves from "walking on two legs" to "walking on three legs (BTC + UXLINK + BNB)"?

What does this mean for the community?

If the vote passes, it would mean giving UXLINK the green light for listing, facilitating better resource connections; at the same time, it also makes the strategic reserves more robust, not only backing themselves and BTC but also adding the support of BNB.

It feels like this is paving the way for UXLINK to target a larger market in advance.

#UXLINK

I just suddenly saw a news flash, Four is officially launching the RWA (Real World Assets) sector!

Previously, what we mostly played with was still on-chain cycles: lending, AMM, various derivatives, funds rotating in pools, competing only on speed and arbitrage. But after RWA goes live, the logic is completely different:

For the first time on-chain, we can touch equity, dividend rights, mining rights, IP, these real-world assets; this means that Four's ecosystem is no longer just on-chain tokens and applications, but is about bringing real value—truly onto the chain for circulation.

The coverage will be very broad this time

Equity, dividend rights → Corporate financing, investor dividends can be settled directly on-chain;

Mining rights → Income rights corresponding to physical resources can be split and traded;

Intellectual property → Song copyrights, patent royalties can all become tradable assets on-chain;

And more rights and assets in the real economy.

This is a milestone for Four's ecological development:

Ecosystem dimension expansion: From DeFi, trading, to connecting the real economy, Four is forming a more complete financial closed loop.

Capital efficiency improvement: After RWA assets go on-chain, they can be split, circulated, and collateralized, activating value that was originally difficult to transfer.

Integration of reality and on-chain: Allowing traditional asset holders to also have the opportunity to enter the Web3 world through Four's ecosystem.

In other words, Four is not just providing users with on-chain tools, but genuinely wants to combine real finance + crypto finance. With the opening of the RWA sector, Four's ecosystem may transform from a "small circle of on-chain participants" into an entry point connecting larger-scale funds and users.

#RWA #four

Brothers, good morning. Last week, Jack Ma made a move.
He directly spent 314 million yuan to buy 10,000 ETH.
Should we follow or not?
I believe most brothers have a lower cost than Jack Ma.

This is a weather vane; more and more big capital is starting to buy coins.
So the good show has just begun.

Yesterday, many altcoins surged; remember to take profits from the coins that skyrocketed.
Because from on-chain data, there hasn't been a significant inflow of stablecoins,
Currently, the market is driven by capital buying mainstream coins through channels like ETFs,
The crypto market is lacking funds, resulting in the unsustainable rise of altcoins.

Barclays predicts: The Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates this year.
Standard Chartered predicts: The Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points in September.
Historic rate cuts will be replayed in September; will it continue to rise?
After being inactive this year, the Federal Reserve will cut rates for the first time in September. Similar situations have only occurred twice in the past 50 years,
and in both instances, the market performed well, with U.S. stocks rising.
Currently, this historical pattern is reappearing.
The crypto market will follow the rise of U.S. stocks.

While the U.S. cuts rates, the People's Bank of China is gradually selling U.S. Treasuries,
And has increased its gold holdings for the 10th consecutive month.

This is also a major trend; U.S. Treasuries are falling, and funds are flowing into gold and digital gold BTC.

It is recommended to hold BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, UNI, etc. patiently,
Hold for 3 months, gain significant profits, and then exit; there's no need to look at the K-line every day.

From on-chain data, stablecoin inflows, BTC outflows, and the proportion of whales is increasing.
In general, on-chain data shows that small funds are selling while large funds are accumulating:
Addresses holding 10 BTC or less sold 27,333 BTC;
Addresses holding between 10 and 100 BTC increased their holdings by 4,154 BTC;
Whale addresses holding more than 100 BTC increased their holdings by 130,912 BTC.

From a macro perspective, this year we need to cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points, and countries and large companies are positioning themselves in BTC.
Therefore, the current market is driven by the main force continuing to consolidate,
waiting for many people to sell after losing hope, and then the main force will accumulate again,
combined with the favorable conditions of interest rate cuts to push the price up vigorously.

BTC, SOL, ETH, BNB, $UNI are worth buying,
just be patient and hold, no need to worry too much.

What will the market do next?

In recent days, BTC and ETH have been weak, while BNB and SOL have been relatively strong.
Due to the high market capitalization of BTC and ETH, it is somewhat difficult to rally them,
Many companies are beginning to position themselves in BNB and SOL, hoping for an increase of over 50%.

Meetings will be held on September 16 and 17 to decide whether to cut interest rates.
From a short-term market perspective, non-farm data will be released on September 6, and if the non-farm numbers significantly exceed expectations,
Then hopes for an interest rate cut in September will be dashed, potentially causing a wave of bearish sentiment.
Therefore, the whales will likely not take major actions before September 6, and may even use the data to distribute coins and shake out weak hands.
Be careful of BTC dropping below $110,000 and ETH falling to around $4,200.
Thus, the current position is recommended at 60%, keeping 40% as dry powder for bottom fishing.
It is advised not to buy ordinary altcoins, as a drop in BTC and ETH will have a significant impact.
It is recommended to primarily hold BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL.

After September 6, the overall trend is still bullish.
From a larger perspective, blockchain and Web3 are reaching more people,
Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Commerce directly collaborated with Solana and Pyth to release economic data,
The Prime Minister of Japan recently spoke at a Web3 conference.

Goldman Sachs recently increased its holdings of Bitcoin by $194 million, bringing its total holdings to $470 million, while also significantly increasing its investment in Bitcoin ETFs.
Trump is gradually taking control of the Federal Reserve Board; once he controls four votes on the board, interference in FOMC personnel will become possible, and real interest rate cuts may be initiated in the second half of the year.
So, a big market move might come after a wave of decline,
In the second half of the year, BTC may break $150,000, and ETH may break $5,200.