I have been studying for a week. At present, the selling pressure from above is very serious. It will plummet soon. Are there any fans who want to follow? In addition, the ADP data at 20:15 is expected to rise first and then fall. The main trend is still bearish! ...
Fresh Recommendations: $UNI Current Spot Bottom Signal: This wave of rebound may exceed expectations!
As the leading DEX on Ethereum, UNI is currently like a sprinter at the starting line, holding back energy waiting for an explosion:
On-chain locked positions surged 30% in 7 days, TVL surpassed $3.7 billion (an increase of $1 billion from last week). After the Prague upgrade, Layer 2 fees can be reduced by 75%. The liquidity aggregation feature of UNI V4 is perfectly suited, and the speed of ecological project integration is accelerating. Institutional holdings are quietly increasing, with Grayscale's UNI trust holdings rising by 15% compared to last month.
The price has been sideways around $5.45 for 12 days, with MACD showing a bullish divergence. RSI has just crossed above 50, with a resistance level for the next rebound at 7.2. If this wave breaks through, the upside potential is at least 25%.
Gradually build positions around $5.45, and do not exceed 15% of total capital for a single position.
On Wednesday, focus on the US April ADP employment (previous value 184,000) and the revised Q1 GDP (initial value 1.6%). On Friday, the non-farm payroll night will reveal the unemployment rate (current value 3.8%) and non-farm employment numbers (previous value 303,000).
These three sets of data will form a key puzzle piece in assessing the "soft landing" quality of the US economy.
Currently, the market is betting on two major trading logic:
Inflation resilience verification: If the PCE price index (core PCE current value 2.8%) falls as expected, it will strengthen the Fed's rate cut expectations in September, and the expectation of liquidity easing may push risk assets to break through economic recession warnings:
If GDP growth is revised down and employment data significantly weakens, then one should be wary of the "stagflation" trade reigniting,
Operational advice: Before data release: It is recommended to keep the BTC/ETH position ratio within 60%, reserving 40% cash to cope with volatility. After data release:
If a "cooling job market + falling inflation" combination occurs, pay special attention to DeFi blue chips (such as AAVE, COMP) and AI sector leaders (such as ARKM, FET).
If the data is stronger than expected, be on guard for the pullback risk brought about by "delayed rate cut expectations", and set a 5% hard stop loss for spot positions.
(Old hands understand: Data week is always a battleground for "real money", better to miss than to make mistakes.)
If you do not understand risk control, suitable entry points, and good position management,
you can call me. Follow me, and let me bring you an unprecedented experience in the crypto world!
Since last Friday, it has been in a high-level sideways fluctuation. Although 95750 has not yet broken through, a daily divergence has not formed either. The larger trend is still in an upward structure, and the short-term pattern cannot be high short and low long. eth: High Short: 1826-1855, take profit 1777-1750, stop loss 1891.
Low Long: 1752-1742/1738, take profit 1800-1826, stop loss 1720
Capital Narrative Dimension: As an investment target driven by narrative logic, its value capture logic focuses on the imaginative space at the intersection of "AI + Blockchain," aligning with the current market's demand for decentralized AI infrastructure. Technical Infrastructure Dimension: Its core value lies in providing an operational environment for on-chain AI agents, achieved through a modular architecture that includes: - Interaction interface between off-chain AI models and on-chain state machines - Data trust injection channels via oracle networks - Verification mechanisms for AI decision-making through smart contracts This dual-attribute positioning distinguishes it from traditional crypto projects: it is neither purely conceptual speculation nor purely technical development, but rather builds a hub layer connecting AI computing resources with blockchain networks. Investors should note that its valuation model should be decomposed into a composite structure of "infrastructure usage fees (Gas model)" + "data asset securitization (Token incentives)," rather than a single narrative-driven Ponzi model.
This is also why I am optimistic about it; it's never too late to enter.
The Meme Logic and Risk Warning Behind the Surge of ENGU
The PENGU token has risen by 45% in a single day, topping the Binance gainers list! This Pudgy
Penguins ecosystem token currently has a market cap of $878 million, sparking heated discussions in the market.
Regarding its attribute positioning, two core understandings need to be clarified:
Essentially a new player in the Meme track, continuing the traffic play of animal-themed tokens (like the wealth effects of PEPE and SHIB), lacking substantial technical foundation, driven purely by community enthusiasm and IP effects.
Currently, three major risk points need to be heeded: ⚠️ Lack of ecosystem: The project team has yet to release an official roadmap, and the transparency of the token economic model is insufficient. ⚠️ Liquidity risks: A market cap of $878 million is considered micro in the crypto market, with a high possibility of manipulation by large holders. ⚠️ Typical "pump and dump" characteristics: The intraday chart shows impulse-like surges, with an abnormal increase in turnover rate.
Advice for newcomers:
Such Meme coins are essentially emotional gambling chips; do not participate with a "value investment" mindset. It is advisable to set strict stop-loss levels (such as exiting unconditionally if the drop exceeds 15%) and avoid leveraging to chase the rise.
In the crypto market, in the game of passing the parcel, the last to hold the bag is always the retail investor.
The multi-army structure has not changed, and there is still potential for upward movement after short-term correction.
The daily chart shows a small bearish candlestick with a lower shadow, indicating that after last week's rally, the market has entered a technical correction phase.
It is worth noting that the pullback has not broken the overall upward trend. The market recovered lost ground at the end of the session, and the Bollinger Bands maintain an upward opening posture, suggesting that after horizontal consolidation, there is still upward momentum. Observing the four-hour cycle, after a brief drop below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, it quickly stabilized. The KDJ indicator formed a golden cross signal, and the MACD showed signs of bottom divergence, indicating that the bulls' counterattack strength exceeded expectations.
The current market presents a typical "rising adjustment" characteristic: the large cycle is still operating within a volatile upward channel, but in the short term, one should be cautious of repeated tug-of-war caused by overbought indicators. From an operational perspective, it is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset, with a focus on the breakout situation at the key level of ten thousand points. Considering that the large-scale volatile pattern may continue, it is advisable not to be overly attached to positions; stage profits should be taken in a timely manner.
Yesterday I made two waves of long Ethereum trades, and this morning it gave us another opportunity to get in, with precise profit-taking.
Reduced holdings by 80%, directly adjusting the layout for more long positions at over 1850 to continue trading!!!!
Closely follow Shuhan, using precise strategic analysis, with a huge investment of millions in AI big data selection, to ensure we remain undefeated? The market never lacks opportunities, the question is whether you can seize them. By following experienced people and the right individuals, we can earn more!
$BTC is currently showing an overall trend of oscillating decline, after experiencing a round of technical rebound, it has entered a stage of oscillation and consolidation.
Currently fluctuating within the range of 92500 - 93300.
If it breaks below the key point of 92700 again, the support level will move down to the range of 92300 - 91800;
If it can successfully stabilize above 93300, a slight rebound is expected. After the rebound, it is anticipated to enter a new oscillation range of 93300 - 93800.
The strong resistance level above is 94300, and the important support level below is 92300.
$ETH ETH is also in an oscillating decline trend, and the current rebound is a technical correction.
Currently maintaining within the oscillation range of 1750 - 1777.
Once it stabilizes above 1770, the oscillation range will move up to 1760 - 1785. The resistance level above is at 1810, and the support level below is 1718, requiring close attention to the breakthrough of key points.
$BTC upgraded to a 12-hour adjustment cycle, pullback target: 91625-90725. Best entry point for a low long position. There will be a short pause and rebound around 92755/92666, which belongs to a short long position, monitor for profit-taking. $ETH simultaneous pullback, target 1750-1730. Best entry point for a low long position. #比特币市值排名 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC#特朗普暂停新关税#以太坊的未来
Yesterday, the large pancake surged to around 95199, forming a spike, and then fluctuated and rose back to around 94500 in the early morning. The overall fluctuation range is limited, so short-term operations should focus on selling high and buying low.
From the daily level, a doji has formed, reflecting insufficient market momentum for both upward and downward movement;
The hourly chart shows that the price fluctuation space continues to narrow, and the trend is increasingly leaning towards horizontal consolidation.
Currently, the short-term structure is moving relatively slowly, and the bullish upward movement has not continued. The plan was to pull back to find a point to follow up, but the strength and amplitude are clearly slightly higher than the planned point, so we have been waiting.
In terms of movement, it is still a step back every time, and the structural pullback does not break the completed bullish structure of this round.
In terms of shape, the pullback is still defined as a process of seeking support, so the idea is not difficult to understand, which is to focus on making more trades around the current short-term multiple pullbacks confirming support.
After losing over 200,000, I finally realized these 9 life-saving rules. I've been eating meat continuously for 3 months; you all better smoke and inhale:
Stop believing in high throws and low catches!
The market specializes in various counter-indicators! The real way to survive: go with the trend + wait for key points to strike.
Shorting: Wait for the 4-hour chart MA60 to press down on the price, then combine it with pin bar signals to enter the market.
Going long: Only act when the daily support level holds and there is a volume surge.
90% of losing traders are buying the bottom halfway up the mountain and touching the top at the ceiling! Don't set your stop loss at 20%!
Newbies always think, "Just hold on and it will come back," but end up holding until it's zero!
The correct stop loss level = the lowest point of the pin bar adjusted slightly lower (this trick has helped me avoid liquidation 3 times!)
A 3:1 win-loss ratio is a brainwashing tactic for the naïve!
If you run after a profit of 50 points and play dead on a loss of 50 points, you'll be finished sooner or later!
True experts only play with big guns:
ETH: Stop loss at 20 points, profit target at least 60 points.
BTC: Stop loss at 800 points, profit target starting at 1200 points.
After reaching the target, don’t rush to run; move the stop loss to the breakeven point and let the profits run wild!
Night trades and weekends are liquidation accelerators!
Why do you always get liquidated at midnight?
Because the liquidity is poor + the big players specifically harvest the night owls! Don't touch the market after midnight, and turn off the machine on weekends for safety!
The big players are most afraid of this trick: the moving stop-loss method (a life-saving skill!)
How to lock in profits once you make money?
90% of people do it the wrong way!
After floating profits of 20 points (ETH) / 800 points (BTC), immediately pull the stop loss to the cost price (from then on, this trade is risk-free!)
As long as the trend hasn’t broken + no reversal signals appear, hold on tight.
Once a big bearish candle engulfs a bullish candle / long upper shadow appears, immediately get out!
Never go all in!
Even if you are 100% sure, never open a position exceeding 10% of your capital in one go, or one mistake can wipe you out!
At most, make 2 trades a day!
If you can't control your hands, lock the computer. The more trades you make, the faster you die; if you miss out, wait until tomorrow!
Lost two trades in a row? Don't trade today!
The market is telling you: today’s vibes are off, quickly turn off the machine and sleep!
Trading is not a casino, but 99% of people treat it like one!
Those who survive rely on strict rules + patience, not on being a gambling god.
Last night, the large pancake dropped to around 93930 and then bounced back, reaching a high of 95748 before falling back to 94500.
In the past few days, attempts to short have been ineffective; the bulls clearly have the upper hand, which is why I always remind everyone to buy on dips.
The daily line has risen for seven consecutive days; although it retreated a bit after peaking last night, the overall sentiment still favors the bulls.
The sideways consolidation during the day is actually allowing the bulls to gather strength, and last night's surge was within expectations.
However, after breaking new highs, the momentum is insufficient, and technical indicators are starting to show divergence. Coupled with low volatility over the weekend, it is likely that we will see back-and-forth fluctuations at high levels.
In terms of operations, we should sell high and buy low within the current range. If it breaks below 93000, we should exit; if it breaks above the previous high, we can chase the upward trend. For short-term operations, be flexible and exit when necessary.
As of $BTC , based on the trend line, BTC is bullish in the short term and also bullish in the medium term. However, before truly breaking through 100,000, it will definitely retest the bottom around 91,500, which is the liquidity around 87,000 and 88,000. If it can't break below, then it will likely head straight for 100,000 before the end of the month. From the perspective of short-term trading, the safety factor for shorting is much higher than for going long. I feel that 95,800, 96,000, 96,500, 97,100, and 97,300 are excellent shorting points, with a stop loss set at 90,000.
Survival Guide in the Crypto World: Don't be a Leek, Learn to be a Scythe!
Three months ago, a brother nearly jumped off the roof after his 200,000 capital was blown down to just 10,000. Now, using my "brutal rolling" skills, his account has reached six figures! Today, I’m sharing three deadly pitfalls:
The first pitfall is "emotional averaging down." Dropping 10% and going all in double?
The market makers love this kind of money-giving fool! Last time, a brother played like this and got liquidated three times in three days, wiping out 200,000.
The second pitfall is "itchy finger trading." Have you seen someone place 30 orders in a single day?
The transaction fees are enough to buy a Wuling Hongguang. The exchange manager wants to give him a banner.
The third pitfall is the most lethal—"full margin all-in syndrome."
Always going all in and always teary-eyed, the tears shed during liquidation are just the result of the foolishness during averaging down!
Let me teach you three life-saving techniques:
The first technique: Eat the fish, but don’t eat the tail! How many people were shouting to buy the dip when BTC was hovering around 20,000?
Wait for the weekly MACD to turn red and break out with volume before acting. A single trade can yield a 70% increase; this is called "no rabbit, no eagle."
The second technique: Pyramid betting method.
Don’t exceed 10% for the first position; wait until you make 50% profit before adding to your position. Be humble when losing money and act like a boss when making money; that’s the right way!
The third technique: Ghost stop-loss technique.
Don’t let a single loss exceed 2%, and once you make 20%, raise the stop loss to your cost price. This way, even during a crash, you can smile while counting your money.
Remember two iron laws:
Being in cash is the real skill!
80% of the gains in the crypto market occur in 20% of the time. Rest for 7 days after a big rise, watch for 3 days after a big drop, and don’t mess up the rhythm!
There’s no absolute bottom! The best entry point is when the weekly MACD has a golden cross and retests the 5-day line. See a new price high but shrinking volume?
Run fast!
Lastly, a true story: A fan strictly followed these six rules last year, and now he’s counting corals in the Maldives. There are only two types of people in the market: those who eat and those who get eaten; which one do you choose?
During the daytime, we shouldn't expect much volatility; we will likely have to wait until later to see market movement.
In the short term, one can trade the range of 92600-93600. The night is when the battle begins.
Do not fantasize about buying at the peak and selling at the low, or buying at the low and selling at the peak. Observing the overall situation and acting accordingly is key!
$ETH The second pancake (二饼) at 1775 has become a key position in the short term above
In comparison to the first pancake (大饼), the second pancake is very weak. The Bollinger Bands on the daily level are gradually narrowing and operating in balance. The K-line has been trying to break through the upper band for three consecutive days,
Today, the intraday high reached around 1889, but faced resistance from the upper band and fell back to around 1750 for consolidation. On the four-hour level, pay attention to the naked K pressure level at 1775. If this level does not break and stabilize,
Then it will continue to test the lower support level: the hourly level auxiliary indicators are running at the 0 axis with a dead cross. Once broken, there is a high probability that Ethereum will fall below 1700 to around 1680.
Today's strategy
Below 1775: control 32 points: target 50 points to reduce positions and observe the downward momentum later
Above 1680: control 27 points: target 50-70 points