The Federal Reserve's expectation of a rate cut in September is about to face a critical test. The CPI data for July, set to be released on August 12 at 8:30 PM, will become an important indicator for determining the short-term trend in the cryptocurrency market.
If the core CPI cools as expected, it will directly strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September, likely leading to a weaker dollar and accelerating capital inflow into risk assets like Bitcoin.
In this case, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through previous highs and altcoins following suit is relatively high.
However, it is important to note that if the data falls short of expectations, the market may initially take a hit.
After all, leverage is not low at the moment, and the risk of short-term liquidation needs to be monitored.
Nevertheless, looking at the medium to long term, a rate cut cycle has already been established; it is just a matter of time.
For us seasoned players in the cryptocurrency market, this kind of market situation is actually quite familiar.
A prudent approach would be to appropriately reduce leverage before the data is released and keep some ammunition ready.
If a sharp drop occurs, it could actually be an opportunity to pick up cheap assets.
Remember, in this macro-driven market, patience is more important than technical analysis.
