cryptokris666
野生加密研究员 | 油管博主 Twitter&Youtube @cryptokris666 所有内容均不构成投资建议
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Five Questions and Answers on the Crypto Bull Market
1⃣Has the bull market ended? If not, what stage of the bull market are we in now?
It is not over yet, and is currently in the transition stage from the middle stage to the late stage.
The argument comes from the latest tweet from legendary short trader GCR, who believes we are still in a bull market.
The price of Bitcoin has broken through its historical high this year, reaching $73,000 at one point. It is currently fluctuating around $64,000, and the price gap from the peak of the previous bull market is only $5,000. Judging from the price, the current market is definitely a bull market for Bitcoin.
According to a research report by 10× Reseach, among the 115 altcoins they analyzed, most of the tokens have fallen by 50% compared to their 2024 price highs, while the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen by 11% and 13% respectively from their 24-year price highs, so the sharp decline in altcoins can be called an altcoin bear market.
It is not over yet, and is currently in the transition stage from the middle stage to the late stage.
The argument comes from the latest tweet from legendary short trader GCR, who believes we are still in a bull market.
The price of Bitcoin has broken through its historical high this year, reaching $73,000 at one point. It is currently fluctuating around $64,000, and the price gap from the peak of the previous bull market is only $5,000. Judging from the price, the current market is definitely a bull market for Bitcoin.
According to a research report by 10× Reseach, among the 115 altcoins they analyzed, most of the tokens have fallen by 50% compared to their 2024 price highs, while the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen by 11% and 13% respectively from their 24-year price highs, so the sharp decline in altcoins can be called an altcoin bear market.
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At present, it seems that there is a very big difference between the rune market and the inscription market.
The rune market is a strong one, and the Matthew effect is obvious. The market value of the top three runes accounts for more than 70% of the entire rune market, and also absorbs most of the liquidity, resulting in a negligible wealth-making effect of new runes, weak secondary takeover motivation, and extremely serious on-site gaming;
The inscription ecosystem can be said to be flourishing at the time. In addition to the three memes leading the sector, $ORDI $SATS $RATS, infrastructure projects also have a very good money-making effect, including but not limited to $MUBI $DOVI, etc. The short-term returns of new listings are also very high, so everyone is crazy about new projects every day in the summer of inscriptions;
Personal opinion, not necessarily correct
When $DOG is successfully launched on BN (this is the premise), the liquidity problem of the rune market will be improved to a certain extent. At that time, the strategy can be adjusted from "only buy big, not buy new" to pay more attention to infrastructure projects (chain bridges, launchpads, etc.). When the valuation of the top projects is close to saturation, funds will most likely overflow to infrastructure and new listings.
The rune market is a strong one, and the Matthew effect is obvious. The market value of the top three runes accounts for more than 70% of the entire rune market, and also absorbs most of the liquidity, resulting in a negligible wealth-making effect of new runes, weak secondary takeover motivation, and extremely serious on-site gaming;
The inscription ecosystem can be said to be flourishing at the time. In addition to the three memes leading the sector, $ORDI $SATS $RATS, infrastructure projects also have a very good money-making effect, including but not limited to $MUBI $DOVI, etc. The short-term returns of new listings are also very high, so everyone is crazy about new projects every day in the summer of inscriptions;
Personal opinion, not necessarily correct
When $DOG is successfully launched on BN (this is the premise), the liquidity problem of the rune market will be improved to a certain extent. At that time, the strategy can be adjusted from "only buy big, not buy new" to pay more attention to infrastructure projects (chain bridges, launchpads, etc.). When the valuation of the top projects is close to saturation, funds will most likely overflow to infrastructure and new listings.
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Five criteria for judging rune casting
1/ Zero pre-mining/full pre-mining Each has its own advantages, and there is no absolute good or bad. The most important thing is whether it can generate a wealth effect. The advantage of zero pre-mining is that the consensus is relatively strong, because it is all cast by users with real money; while full pre-mining depends on the operation and empowerment of the project party, whether there are strong dealers to protect the market, etc.
2/ Number of holders/number of holding addresses This is very important. The more dispersed the chips are, the more retail investors hold them, and the stronger the consensus is
3/ Community discussion, Twitter popularity, especially the popularity of Western communities. You can search the rune name on Twitter, mainly to see the popularity of Western discussions and whether there are big KOLs to promote the products
4/ Rune name, the cultural attributes behind it, the native culture of encryption (including the native culture of Bitcoin), the meme culture of the Western community, and the consensus on culture is also divided into strong and weak
5/ Total supply (supply), single casting amount (amount) and the total number of castings (cap); be cautious if the cap is too small, because the smaller the cap, the fewer the corresponding holders will definitely be
1/ Zero pre-mining/full pre-mining Each has its own advantages, and there is no absolute good or bad. The most important thing is whether it can generate a wealth effect. The advantage of zero pre-mining is that the consensus is relatively strong, because it is all cast by users with real money; while full pre-mining depends on the operation and empowerment of the project party, whether there are strong dealers to protect the market, etc.
2/ Number of holders/number of holding addresses This is very important. The more dispersed the chips are, the more retail investors hold them, and the stronger the consensus is
3/ Community discussion, Twitter popularity, especially the popularity of Western communities. You can search the rune name on Twitter, mainly to see the popularity of Western discussions and whether there are big KOLs to promote the products
4/ Rune name, the cultural attributes behind it, the native culture of encryption (including the native culture of Bitcoin), the meme culture of the Western community, and the consensus on culture is also divided into strong and weak
5/ Total supply (supply), single casting amount (amount) and the total number of castings (cap); be cautious if the cap is too small, because the smaller the cap, the fewer the corresponding holders will definitely be
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This wave of rune market seems to be quite fomo among foreigners. It is different from the previous rune market, which was mainly played by Chinese people and the West missed out. This wave seems to be the Western community trying to make up for the missed opportunities.
Besides, since rune currently has no fundamentals, the narrative (stalk) behind the name is particularly important. You must read more foreign communities for many foreigners' jokes.
Besides, since rune currently has no fundamentals, the narrative (stalk) behind the name is particularly important. You must read more foreign communities for many foreigners' jokes.
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Bitcoin’s Fourth Halving and the Rune Gas War
Summarizing Bitcoin's fourth halving and today's rune gas war
1/The impact of Bitcoin halving on BTC price
Bitcoin completed its fourth halving since its creation at 8:09 am Beijing time on April 20, 2024, at the 840,000th block height.
After the halving is completed, the block mining reward of the Bitcoin network will be halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC; the last halving occurred on May 11, 2020, and the next halving is expected to take place in 2028.
Within six months after the three previous halvings, the price of Bitcoin increased to a certain extent, 10 times in 2012, 37% in 2016, and 100% in 2020; and within a year after the three previous halvings, the price increased by 2,800%, 800%, and 700% respectively.
1/The impact of Bitcoin halving on BTC price
Bitcoin completed its fourth halving since its creation at 8:09 am Beijing time on April 20, 2024, at the 840,000th block height.
After the halving is completed, the block mining reward of the Bitcoin network will be halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC; the last halving occurred on May 11, 2020, and the next halving is expected to take place in 2028.
Within six months after the three previous halvings, the price of Bitcoin increased to a certain extent, 10 times in 2012, 37% in 2016, and 100% in 2020; and within a year after the three previous halvings, the price increased by 2,800%, 800%, and 700% respectively.
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