š Analysis of the movement of smart money on cryptocurrencies as of May 1, 2025
š¼ The best inflow of smart money:
#ETH - $124.842 million
š„ Ethereum dominates again. Such a giant inflow is the most powerful signal of trust. Probably, either an important network update is on the way, or an increase in DeFi activity based on Ethereum is expected.
#CBBTC - $71.246 million
š The new player is possibly a tokenized analogue of BTC on another blockchain platform. Such rapid interest can be caused by technological novelty or institutional integration.
#STETH - $10.379 Million
š Interest in staking assets continues to grow. This confirms the passive income strategy of major players.
#WBTC - $2,744 million
š After yesterdayās record outflow (more than $5 million), today we see a partial recovery of interest. Temporary correction or change of positions is possible.
š§ Outflow from Worldcoin (#WLD) is a serious sign. Perhaps the market has lost faith in the implementation of the project ideas, or there has been an important negative information source.
#PEPE - $1,630 million
šø Yesterdayās inflow was replaced by the most powerful outflow. Obvious pump and dump, which is typical for meme coins.
#ENS, #ENA, #ANKR
š These tokens are under pressure - perhaps speculative capital comes out after a short increase.
#ARKM, #FET, #SAND, #GEL, #UNI
š General cooling of interest in Web3, metaverses and AI projects. Investors are switching to more conservative or reliable assets.
š Conclusions:
š¢ #ETH continues to dominate as an asset ā1 among āsmart moneyā, which consolidates its status as the main institutional crypto asset.
š The appearance of #CBBTC indicates interest in new, perhaps more effective forms of Bitcoin investments.
š» Mass exit from #PEPE and #WLD is a signal of high volatility and risk .
ā”ļøWithout names, Iāll tell you the story of a community member who shared his mistake in private messages...
1ā£All of you have seen the recent growth of the shield called āALPACAā, the man could not stand the boring market, sold the portfolio for $150,000 and bought this coin. Within a short time, there was already $200,000 on the balance sheet (it would seem that here it is the Grail)
2ā£ALPACA falls by -80% during the day, a person is in a panic, sells in an attempt to save at least some money, and, as usual, in order to āwin backā he gets into a short position, with 2 shoulders... In the morning, ALPACA turns his deposit into a pumpkin, and instead of āgood morningā he came to the mail: āyour position has been liquidatedā
āŗALPACA will be removed from the exchanges forever, and the deposit cannot be returned... Although even with the most modest layouts, from current values (after a strong fall), even 10x would be provided by $1,500,000.. āļø
āŗIf you do not take any action today and it seems to you that there are too many extra passengers, then know that you are already the winner (if your deposit is alive), and most of them lose every day: on futures, on alpacas, scammers, network errors, loans, attempts to āimproveā your position, the prospects are very bright, but not for everyone!
ā¤ļøWith this post I am not ācondemningā someone, but I just want to remind you that if you do not make banal mistakes - you are already very good, and if you were going to āfind a new alpacaā - stop before itās too late! Soon the times will come when the whole market will grow, from the mode of āsurvivalā, āhunger gamesā and āPVPā - the PVE mode and āeasy money for all who survivedā will begin, today the main task is to save capital, not to earn!šāļø$ALPACA
š¢Investor expectations: investors expect US GDP to decrease from 2.3% to 0.2%
ā Fact: -0.3% (worse expected)
āHow to read the data: the data went below expectations, which means that the economy stopped growing and āstagnationā began. This increases the chances that the US Federal Reserve is more likely to start lowering the interest rate, we are getting closer to the āprinting pressā (this is positive).. But the risks of recession are also increasing locally - this can ādisturb investorsā
šŗšøEmployment in the private sector (preliminary)
š¢Investorsā expectations: investors expect a decrease in employment from 142K to 114K
ā Fact: 65K (low expectations)
āļøComment on the data: we saw negative GDP for the first time in āthis seasonā, which means that the economy is slowing down sharply (we expected this even before the introduction of tariffs), locally - this may have a negative impact on the markets, as the risks of recession are significantly increasing, as are uncertainty, investorsā concerns, but, at a distance, this increases the chances of reducing the rate of the US Federal Reserve (already at the next meeting on May 7), as well as, we are getting closer to the inclusion of the āprinting pressā. The labor market is also weakening if the data is confirmed on Friday - we are waiting for ārecession rhetoricā of the media and panic, but very soon - the Fed will intervene.
Gambling is something that destroys your capital more than a bear, manipulators and market makers combined
You can often hear the expression that the market is a casino. And itās true, the market is arranged in such a way that, with rare exceptions, wherever you go, you will have a negative wait, exactly the same as in the casino. And the traderās task is to find ways to break this negative mate-expectation in his favor.
But the general characteristics do not end there. Another common quality of markets and casinos is human excitement. Gambling is an emotion, a great desire to win, and to win at any cost. And emotion is extremely strong, an emotion that overlaps any logic, trading rules or systematic approach.
There are two main cases of excitement:
- The first case is when a beginner believes that he āfeelsā the market. We donāt care about rules or facts, feelings are important. In fact, this is nothing more than just a thirst for profit, because the brain connects two components - profit and transactions, and puts them equally. I want profit, which means I need to trade, which means āmy feelingā that the market is going somewhere now
- The second case is the desire to win back. This is the most dangerous case in terms of consequences, when you already have large losses in the background and you want to close them as quickly as possible. How to do it? Itās right to take a lot, and better with a shoulder. Our brain adds up ātwo plus twoā again, namely, it answers the question, how to earn a lot and quickly? And he gets an obvious answer - to take a big pose. Here risk management goes into tartars, and even if one day you are lucky enough to cover the past loss, it is only a matter of time when such a strategy will take away the lionās share of your capital from you. After all, in this case, you not only play with a negative mat expectation, but also do it on a large scale, which makes the result of capital loss almost guaranteed
If you trader, it is guaranteed that you managed to meet each of cases excitement
With an offset of 80-100 days, bitcoin now clearly follows the trajectory of GLOBAL M2. If, in someoneās opinion, itās pulled by the ears, please make a bet against it in the market š
The shift of GLOBAL M2 upwards is incredibly cool with bitcoin.
Bitcoin has entered a phase of strong growth, as GLOBAL M2 did 80-100 days earlier.
I think the crypto market will reach new heights in the next 2 months. First bitcoin will do it, then altcoins.
I donāt rely only on this indicator, although I really like it, there are other things about which I broadcast so that we have a more complete picture.
š« The SEC is again postponing decisions on crypto-ETF - reports James Seyffart / #ETF Analyst.
š Once again, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is slowing down the launch of new ETFs based on leading cryptocurrencies. The list of pending applications includes:
šø #Ethereum (ETH) - ETF staking from Fidelity and Franklin Templeton
šø #Solana (SOL) - ETF from Franklin Templeton
šø #Ripple (XRP) - ETF from Franklin Templeton
šø #Hedera (HBAR) - ETF from Grayscale
šø Dogecoin (DOGE) - ETF from Bitwise
š According to ETF expert James Safefart, the current postponements are intermediate stages, not a refusal.
Final decisions may be made in the fourth quarter of 2025.
š Until then, the market remains waiting, and institutional capital is on the threshold of entry.
ā ļø Regulatory uncertainty continues to restrain the growth of altcoins, despite the technical and fundamental readiness of products.$ETH