CryptoChan

Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively).

At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.

【BTC On-chain Indicator Update】Current——

+2.0σ：$166,019
+1.0σ：$125,774
Mean：$85,529
-0.5σ：$65,406
-1.0σ：$45,283

In the history of BTC's major cycles, among the 5 main peaks of this indicator—

4 peaks occurred before the bull market peak (February 2013, October 2013, December 2016, November 2020)

1 peak occurred at the bull market peak (October 2021)

Currently, this indicator has also reached a considerable height

The indicator in the chart represents the number of coins held by long-term holders on the BTC chain (holding period > 155 days) that are in profit, as a percentage of the total circulating supply of BTC.

BTC: The historical peak of the Relative Unrealized Profit indicator is also continuously declining, and its decay process can be well fitted by the exponential decay function y(x) = a + be^(-cx)

Currently, the value of this indicator is 54%, and the function fitting value of the historical peak is 71%

BTC: Relative Unrealized Profit indicator refers to the percentage of total unrealized profit of all BTC on-chain relative to the total market capitalization of spot (in USD)

In June 2020, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a small rally. In September 2020, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a large rally. In October 2024, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a small rally. Recently, this indicator broke 0.12.

The indicator in the chart represents the concentration of long-term holders (holding for >155 days) chips within ±10% of the Bitcoin spot price. That is, among the long-term holders' chips, the number of chips with a buying cost price within ±10% of the spot price accounts for the percentage of the total amount of chips held by long-term holders.

Currently, the 'copper-gold price ratio' is at a historical low, and the 'Ethereum-Bitcoin price ratio' is also at a historical low.

It is worth mentioning that historically, the two have been quite positively correlated (Bitcoin is 'digital gold', could Ethereum be 'digital pure copper'? 🌚)

Yesterday's lowest coin price dropped to $98200
Short-term investors' cost price $98217

The black line in the chart represents the BTC price; the blue line represents the average buying price of on-chain short-term investors (holding coins < 155 days)

【Mystical Carving Series】Carving the Final Market Trend of BTC Bull Run——

The bottom of this pullback is carved at the end of June
The top of the next market trend is carved in mid-August
The bottom of the next pullback is carved at the end of August to early September
The final bull peak is carved in mid-September to mid-October

The black line in the chart represents BTC: MVRV index for the ⟨20 years to present⟩ period; the blue line represents BTC: MVRV index for the ⟨16-21 years⟩ period; the red line represents BTC: MVRV index for the ⟨12-17 years⟩ period. The three lines align with the halving dates of BTC mining output for each respective cycle

Note: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) refers to the ratio of Bitcoin's total market value to its total acquisition cost.

Approximately 9 months after the green column peak at the beginning of 2017, the big bull top
Approximately 10 months after the green column peak at the beginning of 2021, the big bull top
The current green column peak has passed for about 7.3 months

The black line at the top of the chart represents BTC price; the green bars below represent the percentage of BTC that has not moved on-chain for 3-5 years out of the total amount, where BTC from different age groups needs to be weighted by the market value of the total buying cost (Realized Cap) of that age group to eliminate the issue of ancient whale coins disproportionately affecting the current proportions.

The last chance for institutional bulls to get on board! 🚀🚀🚀

BTC【Five-line Chart】Update, Current——

Line 5: $200,157
Line 4: $126,660
Line 3: $80,724
Line 2: $53,163
Line 1: $34,789

The counterfeit index is updated, and the synchronization continues 😏

The K-line chart in the image represents the total market value of cryptocurrencies outside the TOP 10; the line chart represents the M2SL / DXY data delayed by 11 weeks.

M2SL is the M2 money supply data published by the Federal Reserve, measured in hundreds of millions of dollars. It measures the total amount of broad money circulating in an economy.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is an index that measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six major international currencies (the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc).

M2SL / DXY is the ratio obtained by dividing the M2 money supply by the dollar index.

When M2SL / DXY rises, investors may expect the prices of risk assets to increase because liquidity is increasing and a weaker dollar lowers the cost of holding non-dollar assets.

When M2SL / DXY falls, it may indicate a tightening monetary environment, a stronger dollar, which may benefit dollar assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds), but put pressure on assets like gold and cryptocurrencies.

BTC【Bull Market Top Chart】&【Point Escape Top Method】Ultimate Version Push! Current——

🔴 Bull Top Indicator Value: $147,599
🟠 Bull Top Indicator Value: $149,146
🟡 Bull Top Indicator Value: $156,046
🟢 Bull Top Indicator Value: $160,430
🔵 Bull Top Indicator Value: $201,216
🟤 Bull Top Indicator Value: $226,902

It is worth mentioning that the situation of the coin price breaking above the 6 indicators is counted as points (on a daily basis, if the coin price breaks 0 indicators, score 0 points, break 1 indicator, score 1 point, and so on for accumulation)——

During the 2017 Bull Top period, the total score was 108
During the 2021 Bull Top period, the total score was 108
Current total score is 0

Note:
🔴 Indicator is Std-Adjusted MVRV Price, this indicator is designed based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator;
🟠 Indicator is Std-Adjusted STH-MVRV Price, this indicator is designed based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator;
🟡 Indicator is Fib-Adjusted Balanced Price, this indicator is derived by multiplying the Bitcoin Balanced Price by Fibonacci sequence;
🟢 Indicator is Tradable Realized Price, this indicator is designed based on Realized Market Cap and on-chain liquidity chips;
🔵 Indicator is Curve-Fitted Median MVRV Price, this indicator is designed by curve fitting (function) the peak values of the median MVRV of Bitcoin over historical cycles;
🟤 Indicator is Fib-Adjusted Transferred Price, this indicator is derived by multiplying the Bitcoin Transferred Price by Fibonacci sequence.

patience
is
key in life

I hope you brothers are doing well and haven't been thrown off the car 😼

BTC【Seven Finger Cap Chart】Update, Current——

🔴 Bull Cap Indicator Value: $147,285
🟠 Bull Cap Indicator Value: $149,121
🟡 Bull Cap Indicator Value: $155,352
🟢 Bull Cap Indicator Value: $160,090
🔵 Bull Cap Indicator Value: $200,793
🟣 Bull Cap Indicator Value: $205,829
🟤 Bull Cap Indicator Value: $226,430

It is worth mentioning that points are awarded when the coin price breaks through the above 7 indicators (on a daily basis: if the coin price breaks through 0 indicators, score 0 points; break through 1 indicator, score 1 point; and so on for accumulation)——

In the bull cap period of 2013, total points were 129
In the bull cap period of 2017, total points were 103
In the first peak of 2021, total points were 101
Current total points are 0

Note:
🔴 The indicator is Std-Adjusted MVRV Price, which is derived based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator;
🟠 The indicator is Std-Adjusted STH-MVRV Price, which is derived based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin short-term holders MVRV indicator;
🟡 The indicator is Fib-Adjusted Balanced Price, which is derived by scaling the Bitcoin balanced price using Fibonacci sequence multiples;
🟢 The indicator is Tradable Realized Price, which is derived based on the realized market cap and on-chain liquidity chips;
🔵 The indicator is Curve-Fitted Median MVRV Price, which is derived by fitting a curve (function) to the historical peak values of Bitcoin's median MVRV across cycles;
🟣 The indicator is Fib-Adjusted Miner Revenue Price, which is derived by scaling Bitcoin miners' dollar revenue from mining using Fibonacci sequence multiples;
🟤 The indicator is Fib-Adjusted Transferred Price, which is derived by scaling the Bitcoin transferred price using Fibonacci sequence multiples.

BTC breaks $70,000+, the price touches +1.0σ
BTC breaks $100,000+, the price touches +1.0σ
Currently, +1.0σ (light green line) value is $117,114

Black line: Bitcoin price
+2.0σ: Bitcoin realized price weighted by positive 2 standard deviations of the historical cumulative average of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
+1.0σ: Bitcoin realized price weighted by positive 1 standard deviation of the historical cumulative average of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
Mean: Bitcoin realized price weighted by ±0 standard deviations of the historical cumulative average of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
-0.5σ: Bitcoin realized price weighted by negative 0.5 standard deviations of the historical cumulative average of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
-1.0σ: Bitcoin realized price weighted by negative 1 standard deviation of the historical cumulative average of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator

BTC【Seven-Line Score Peak Escape Method】Overview

Current——
Std-Adjusted MVRV Price: $145,455
Std-Adjusted STH-MVRV Price: $148,281
Fib-Adjusted Balanced Price: $158,064
Tradable Realized Price: $162,894
Curve-Fitted Median MVRV Price: $199,089
Fib-Adjusted Miner Revenue Price: $204,838
Fib-Adjusted Transferred Price: $223,862

It is worth mentioning——
Near the bull peak in 2013, the price broke through 7 lines a total of 129 times
Near the bull peak in 2017, the price broke through 7 lines a total of 103 times
Near the first peak in 2021, the price broke through 7 lines a total of 101 times

Note:
1⃣ Std-Adjusted MVRV Price is derived based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator;
2⃣ Std-Adjusted STH-MVRV Price is derived based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin short-term holder MVRV indicator;
3⃣ Fib-Adjusted Balanced Price is derived by scaling the Bitcoin balanced price (Balanced Price) by Fibonacci multiples;
4⃣ Tradable Realized Price is derived based on realized market capitalization (Realized Cap) and on-chain liquidity chips;
5⃣ Curve-Fitted Median MVRV Price is derived by fitting a curve (function) to the peak values of Bitcoin's median MVRV over historical cycles;
6⃣ Fib-Adjusted Miner Revenue Price is derived by scaling the dollar income of Bitcoin miners by Fibonacci multiples;
7⃣ Fib-Adjusted Transferred Price is derived by scaling the Bitcoin transferred price by Fibonacci multiples.

BTC【Five-Line Chart】Update, Current——

Line 5: $196,679
Line 4: $124,484
Line 3: $79,362
Line 2: $52,289
Line 1: $34,240

The chart represents a comprehensive long-term model of Bitcoin prices. This model is designed based on on-chain data such as Coin Days Destroyed, Liquid Supply, and Realized Price, using five lines to completely encompass and categorize the entire historical price range from peak to trough.

【Indicator Update】Counterfeit Big Reversal, Hot in Progress 😉

Brothers, we made it through! 😏