Binance Square

CryptoChan

Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analysis,比特币链上行情分析 || 不拉群、不带单、不收费,分享是创作源动力 || Twitter:@0xCryptoChan
10 Following
15.3K+ Followers
33.7K+ Liked
2.7K+ Shared
All Content
--
See original
Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively). At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively).

At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
See original
Aiming for Line 4 😎
Aiming for Line 4 😎
CryptoChan
--
BTC【Classic Five-Line Chart】Update, Current——

Line 5: $214,676
Line 4: $136,092
Line 3: $86,978
Line 2: $57,509
Line 1: $37,863
See original
【Indicator Update】Mystical K舟 is making a strong push, this wave of explosive growth is under control😎 Next, aiming for the mid-August peak😉
【Indicator Update】Mystical K舟 is making a strong push, this wave of explosive growth is under control😎

Next, aiming for the mid-August peak😉
CryptoChan
--
【Mystical Carving Series】Carving the Final Market Trend of BTC Bull Run——

The bottom of this pullback is carved at the end of June
The top of the next market trend is carved in mid-August
The bottom of the next pullback is carved at the end of August to early September
The final bull peak is carved in mid-September to mid-October

The black line in the chart represents BTC: MVRV index for the ⟨20 years to present⟩ period; the blue line represents BTC: MVRV index for the ⟨16-21 years⟩ period; the red line represents BTC: MVRV index for the ⟨12-17 years⟩ period. The three lines align with the halving dates of BTC mining output for each respective cycle

Note: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) refers to the ratio of Bitcoin's total market value to its total acquisition cost.
See original
__ Blast on, hot and ongoing😏
__ Blast on, hot and ongoing😏
CryptoChan
--
In June 2020, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a small rally. In September 2020, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a large rally. In October 2024, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a small rally. Recently, this indicator broke 0.12.

The indicator in the chart represents the concentration of long-term holders (holding for >155 days) chips within ±10% of the Bitcoin spot price. That is, among the long-term holders' chips, the number of chips with a buying cost price within ±10% of the spot price accounts for the percentage of the total amount of chips held by long-term holders.
See original
Distance reveals a horse's strength, time reveals true gold😼
Distance reveals a horse's strength, time reveals true gold😼
CryptoChan
--
Carve out 15-16 years.

The black line in the figure is the price of Bitcoin, and the orange line is the realized price of Bitcoin (Realized Price). The realized price: take the price of #BTC when it last moved on the chain as the next purchase price, and calculate all #BTC on the chain. The weighted average buying price (that is, the average cost price of all investors).
See original
【BTC On-chain Indicator Update】 In 2016, this indicator had a golden cross, 671 days later reached the peak in 2017 In 2019, this indicator had a golden cross, 648 days later reached the peak in the first half of 2021 In 2023, this indicator had a golden cross, it has been 605 days since then
【BTC On-chain Indicator Update】

In 2016, this indicator had a golden cross, 671 days later reached the peak in 2017
In 2019, this indicator had a golden cross, 648 days later reached the peak in the first half of 2021
In 2023, this indicator had a golden cross, it has been 605 days since then
CryptoChan
--
In 2016, this indicator had a golden cross, and 671 days later reached the peak in 2017.
In 2019, this indicator had a golden cross, and 648 days later reached the peak in the first half of 2021.
In 2023, this indicator had a golden cross, and 515 days have passed since then.

The black line at the top of the chart represents BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are BTC: Realized Profit (365dma) and BTC: Realized Loss (365dma).

BTC's Realized Profit and Realized Loss are commonly used indicators in on-chain analysis, used to measure the actual profits or losses of Bitcoin holders during transactions, reflecting the behavior of market participants and market sentiment.

Realized Profit refers to the actual profit that Bitcoin holders receive when selling Bitcoin. Specifically, when a Bitcoin is sold at a price higher than its last movement (or acquisition) price, the difference between the selling price and the cost price is the realized profit.

Realized Loss refers to the actual loss that Bitcoin holders incur when selling Bitcoin. When a Bitcoin is sold at a price lower than its last movement price, the difference between the cost price and the selling price is the realized loss.
See original
BTC【Classic Five-Line Chart】Update, Current—— Line 5: $214,676 Line 4: $136,092 Line 3: $86,978 Line 2: $57,509 Line 1: $37,863
BTC【Classic Five-Line Chart】Update, Current——

Line 5: $214,676
Line 4: $136,092
Line 3: $86,978
Line 2: $57,509
Line 1: $37,863
CryptoChan
--
Don't panic, Line3's big support is still there, and my great BTC has its own cycle here😎

The picture shows a set of Bitcoin price cycle models, which are designed based on on-chain data such as Coin Days Destroyed, total circulation (Liquid Supply), and realized price (Realized Price). 5 lines are used to completely divide the entire historical coin price from the top to the bottom.
See original
【BTC On-chain Indicator Update】Current—— +2.0σ:$166,019 +1.0σ:$125,774 Mean:$85,529 -0.5σ:$65,406 -1.0σ:$45,283
【BTC On-chain Indicator Update】Current——

+2.0σ:$166,019
+1.0σ:$125,774
Mean:$85,529
-0.5σ:$65,406
-1.0σ:$45,283
CryptoChan
--
BTC breaks $70,000+, the price touches +1.0σ
BTC breaks $100,000+, the price touches +1.0σ
Currently, +1.0σ (light green line) value is $117,114

Black line: Bitcoin price
+2.0σ: Bitcoin realized price weighted by positive 2 standard deviations of the historical cumulative average of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
+1.0σ: Bitcoin realized price weighted by positive 1 standard deviation of the historical cumulative average of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
Mean: Bitcoin realized price weighted by ±0 standard deviations of the historical cumulative average of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
-0.5σ: Bitcoin realized price weighted by negative 0.5 standard deviations of the historical cumulative average of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
-1.0σ: Bitcoin realized price weighted by negative 1 standard deviation of the historical cumulative average of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
See original
In the history of BTC's major cycles, among the 5 main peaks of this indicator— 4 peaks occurred before the bull market peak (February 2013, October 2013, December 2016, November 2020) 1 peak occurred at the bull market peak (October 2021) Currently, this indicator has also reached a considerable height The indicator in the chart represents the number of coins held by long-term holders on the BTC chain (holding period > 155 days) that are in profit, as a percentage of the total circulating supply of BTC.
In the history of BTC's major cycles, among the 5 main peaks of this indicator—

4 peaks occurred before the bull market peak (February 2013, October 2013, December 2016, November 2020)

1 peak occurred at the bull market peak (October 2021)

Currently, this indicator has also reached a considerable height

The indicator in the chart represents the number of coins held by long-term holders on the BTC chain (holding period > 155 days) that are in profit, as a percentage of the total circulating supply of BTC.
See original
BTC: The historical peak of the Relative Unrealized Profit indicator is also continuously declining, and its decay process can be well fitted by the exponential decay function y(x) = a + be^(-cx) Currently, the value of this indicator is 54%, and the function fitting value of the historical peak is 71% BTC: Relative Unrealized Profit indicator refers to the percentage of total unrealized profit of all BTC on-chain relative to the total market capitalization of spot (in USD)
BTC: The historical peak of the Relative Unrealized Profit indicator is also continuously declining, and its decay process can be well fitted by the exponential decay function y(x) = a + be^(-cx)

Currently, the value of this indicator is 54%, and the function fitting value of the historical peak is 71%

BTC: Relative Unrealized Profit indicator refers to the percentage of total unrealized profit of all BTC on-chain relative to the total market capitalization of spot (in USD)
See original
In June 2020, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a small rally. In September 2020, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a large rally. In October 2024, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a small rally. Recently, this indicator broke 0.12. The indicator in the chart represents the concentration of long-term holders (holding for >155 days) chips within ±10% of the Bitcoin spot price. That is, among the long-term holders' chips, the number of chips with a buying cost price within ±10% of the spot price accounts for the percentage of the total amount of chips held by long-term holders.
In June 2020, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a small rally. In September 2020, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a large rally. In October 2024, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a small rally. Recently, this indicator broke 0.12.

The indicator in the chart represents the concentration of long-term holders (holding for >155 days) chips within ±10% of the Bitcoin spot price. That is, among the long-term holders' chips, the number of chips with a buying cost price within ±10% of the spot price accounts for the percentage of the total amount of chips held by long-term holders.
See original
Currently, the 'copper-gold price ratio' is at a historical low, and the 'Ethereum-Bitcoin price ratio' is also at a historical low. It is worth mentioning that historically, the two have been quite positively correlated (Bitcoin is 'digital gold', could Ethereum be 'digital pure copper'? 🌚)
Currently, the 'copper-gold price ratio' is at a historical low, and the 'Ethereum-Bitcoin price ratio' is also at a historical low.

It is worth mentioning that historically, the two have been quite positively correlated (Bitcoin is 'digital gold', could Ethereum be 'digital pure copper'? 🌚)
See original
Yesterday's lowest coin price dropped to $98200 Short-term investors' cost price $98217 The black line in the chart represents the BTC price; the blue line represents the average buying price of on-chain short-term investors (holding coins < 155 days)
Yesterday's lowest coin price dropped to $98200
Short-term investors' cost price $98217

The black line in the chart represents the BTC price; the blue line represents the average buying price of on-chain short-term investors (holding coins < 155 days)
See original
【Mystical Carving Series】Carving the Final Market Trend of BTC Bull Run—— The bottom of this pullback is carved at the end of June The top of the next market trend is carved in mid-August The bottom of the next pullback is carved at the end of August to early September The final bull peak is carved in mid-September to mid-October The black line in the chart represents BTC: MVRV index for the ⟨20 years to present⟩ period; the blue line represents BTC: MVRV index for the ⟨16-21 years⟩ period; the red line represents BTC: MVRV index for the ⟨12-17 years⟩ period. The three lines align with the halving dates of BTC mining output for each respective cycle Note: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) refers to the ratio of Bitcoin's total market value to its total acquisition cost.
【Mystical Carving Series】Carving the Final Market Trend of BTC Bull Run——

The bottom of this pullback is carved at the end of June
The top of the next market trend is carved in mid-August
The bottom of the next pullback is carved at the end of August to early September
The final bull peak is carved in mid-September to mid-October

The black line in the chart represents BTC: MVRV index for the ⟨20 years to present⟩ period; the blue line represents BTC: MVRV index for the ⟨16-21 years⟩ period; the red line represents BTC: MVRV index for the ⟨12-17 years⟩ period. The three lines align with the halving dates of BTC mining output for each respective cycle

Note: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) refers to the ratio of Bitcoin's total market value to its total acquisition cost.
See original
Approximately 9 months after the green column peak at the beginning of 2017, the big bull top Approximately 10 months after the green column peak at the beginning of 2021, the big bull top The current green column peak has passed for about 7.3 months The black line at the top of the chart represents BTC price; the green bars below represent the percentage of BTC that has not moved on-chain for 3-5 years out of the total amount, where BTC from different age groups needs to be weighted by the market value of the total buying cost (Realized Cap) of that age group to eliminate the issue of ancient whale coins disproportionately affecting the current proportions.
Approximately 9 months after the green column peak at the beginning of 2017, the big bull top
Approximately 10 months after the green column peak at the beginning of 2021, the big bull top
The current green column peak has passed for about 7.3 months

The black line at the top of the chart represents BTC price; the green bars below represent the percentage of BTC that has not moved on-chain for 3-5 years out of the total amount, where BTC from different age groups needs to be weighted by the market value of the total buying cost (Realized Cap) of that age group to eliminate the issue of ancient whale coins disproportionately affecting the current proportions.
See original
The last chance for institutional bulls to get on board! 🚀🚀🚀
The last chance for institutional bulls to get on board! 🚀🚀🚀
See original
BTC【Five-line Chart】Update, Current—— Line 5: $200,157 Line 4: $126,660 Line 3: $80,724 Line 2: $53,163 Line 1: $34,789
BTC【Five-line Chart】Update, Current——

Line 5: $200,157
Line 4: $126,660
Line 3: $80,724
Line 2: $53,163
Line 1: $34,789
CryptoChan
--
Don't panic, Line3's big support is still there, and my great BTC has its own cycle here😎

The picture shows a set of Bitcoin price cycle models, which are designed based on on-chain data such as Coin Days Destroyed, total circulation (Liquid Supply), and realized price (Realized Price). 5 lines are used to completely divide the entire historical coin price from the top to the bottom.
See original
The counterfeit index is updated, and the synchronization continues 😏 The K-line chart in the image represents the total market value of cryptocurrencies outside the TOP 10; the line chart represents the M2SL / DXY data delayed by 11 weeks. M2SL is the M2 money supply data published by the Federal Reserve, measured in hundreds of millions of dollars. It measures the total amount of broad money circulating in an economy. DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is an index that measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six major international currencies (the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc). M2SL / DXY is the ratio obtained by dividing the M2 money supply by the dollar index. When M2SL / DXY rises, investors may expect the prices of risk assets to increase because liquidity is increasing and a weaker dollar lowers the cost of holding non-dollar assets. When M2SL / DXY falls, it may indicate a tightening monetary environment, a stronger dollar, which may benefit dollar assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds), but put pressure on assets like gold and cryptocurrencies.
The counterfeit index is updated, and the synchronization continues 😏

The K-line chart in the image represents the total market value of cryptocurrencies outside the TOP 10; the line chart represents the M2SL / DXY data delayed by 11 weeks.

M2SL is the M2 money supply data published by the Federal Reserve, measured in hundreds of millions of dollars. It measures the total amount of broad money circulating in an economy.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is an index that measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six major international currencies (the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc).

M2SL / DXY is the ratio obtained by dividing the M2 money supply by the dollar index.

When M2SL / DXY rises, investors may expect the prices of risk assets to increase because liquidity is increasing and a weaker dollar lowers the cost of holding non-dollar assets.

When M2SL / DXY falls, it may indicate a tightening monetary environment, a stronger dollar, which may benefit dollar assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds), but put pressure on assets like gold and cryptocurrencies.
CryptoChan
--
Figure 1: "Total crypto market value excluding TOP10" is positively correlated with "M2SL/DXY" which is delayed by 11 weeks🌚

Figure 2 is the implementation code

P. S. If the correlation continues, the market correction low will appear near the end of March? 🌝
See original
BTC【Bull Market Top Chart】&【Point Escape Top Method】Ultimate Version Push! Current—— 🔴 Bull Top Indicator Value: $147,599 🟠 Bull Top Indicator Value: $149,146 🟡 Bull Top Indicator Value: $156,046 🟢 Bull Top Indicator Value: $160,430 🔵 Bull Top Indicator Value: $201,216 🟤 Bull Top Indicator Value: $226,902 It is worth mentioning that the situation of the coin price breaking above the 6 indicators is counted as points (on a daily basis, if the coin price breaks 0 indicators, score 0 points, break 1 indicator, score 1 point, and so on for accumulation)—— During the 2017 Bull Top period, the total score was 108 During the 2021 Bull Top period, the total score was 108 Current total score is 0 Note: 🔴 Indicator is Std-Adjusted MVRV Price, this indicator is designed based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator; 🟠 Indicator is Std-Adjusted STH-MVRV Price, this indicator is designed based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator; 🟡 Indicator is Fib-Adjusted Balanced Price, this indicator is derived by multiplying the Bitcoin Balanced Price by Fibonacci sequence; 🟢 Indicator is Tradable Realized Price, this indicator is designed based on Realized Market Cap and on-chain liquidity chips; 🔵 Indicator is Curve-Fitted Median MVRV Price, this indicator is designed by curve fitting (function) the peak values of the median MVRV of Bitcoin over historical cycles; 🟤 Indicator is Fib-Adjusted Transferred Price, this indicator is derived by multiplying the Bitcoin Transferred Price by Fibonacci sequence.
BTC【Bull Market Top Chart】&【Point Escape Top Method】Ultimate Version Push! Current——

🔴 Bull Top Indicator Value: $147,599
🟠 Bull Top Indicator Value: $149,146
🟡 Bull Top Indicator Value: $156,046
🟢 Bull Top Indicator Value: $160,430
🔵 Bull Top Indicator Value: $201,216
🟤 Bull Top Indicator Value: $226,902

It is worth mentioning that the situation of the coin price breaking above the 6 indicators is counted as points (on a daily basis, if the coin price breaks 0 indicators, score 0 points, break 1 indicator, score 1 point, and so on for accumulation)——

During the 2017 Bull Top period, the total score was 108
During the 2021 Bull Top period, the total score was 108
Current total score is 0

Note:
🔴 Indicator is Std-Adjusted MVRV Price, this indicator is designed based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator;
🟠 Indicator is Std-Adjusted STH-MVRV Price, this indicator is designed based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator;
🟡 Indicator is Fib-Adjusted Balanced Price, this indicator is derived by multiplying the Bitcoin Balanced Price by Fibonacci sequence;
🟢 Indicator is Tradable Realized Price, this indicator is designed based on Realized Market Cap and on-chain liquidity chips;
🔵 Indicator is Curve-Fitted Median MVRV Price, this indicator is designed by curve fitting (function) the peak values of the median MVRV of Bitcoin over historical cycles;
🟤 Indicator is Fib-Adjusted Transferred Price, this indicator is derived by multiplying the Bitcoin Transferred Price by Fibonacci sequence.
CryptoChan
--
The skill has been mastered, the eight major BTC bull market peak escape indicators are gathered! (I worked myself to death...)

Current——
🔵Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price: $118634
🟠Fibonacci Top Price: $120239
🔘Tradable Realized Price: $138034
🟡Delta Top Price: $164166
🟤Pow Price: $183281
🔴Terminal Price: $183344
🟣Thermocap Price: $185031
🟢Top Cap Price: $391566

It is worth mentioning that, historically——
In 2011, the bull peak, the currency price broke through 5 lines
In 2013, the first peak, the currency price broke through 5 lines
In 2013, the second peak, the currency price broke through 7 lines
In 2017, the bull peak, the currency price broke through 7 lines
In 2021, the first peak, the currency price broke through 5 lines

Currently, the currency price has broken through 0 lines
See original
patience is key in life I hope you brothers are doing well and haven't been thrown off the car 😼
patience
is
key in life

I hope you brothers are doing well and haven't been thrown off the car 😼
CryptoChan
--
🚀 Bitcoin breaks $100,000, the future is yours!
Login to explore more contents
Explore the latest crypto news
⚡️ Be a part of the latests discussions in crypto
💬 Interact with your favorite creators
👍 Enjoy content that interests you
Email / Phone number

Latest News

--
View More

Trending Articles

DeCrypto TokenTalks
View More
Sitemap
Cookie Preferences
Platform T&Cs