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【BTC链上指标更新】当前—— +2.0σ:$166,019 +1.0σ:$125,774 Mean:$85,529 -0.5σ:$65,406 -1.0σ:$45,283
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在BTC历史上各大周期,该指标出现的5个主要峰值中—— 4个峰值出现在牛顶前(13年2月、13年10月、16年12月、20年11月) 1个峰值出现在牛顶时(21年10月) 当前该指标亦达到相当高度 图中指标为BTC链上长期持币者(持币>155天)的筹码中,处于浮盈状态的筹码数量占BTC总流通量百分比
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BTC: Relative Unrealized Profit 指标的历史峰值也是不断衰减的,且其衰减过程可通过 y(x) = a + be^(-cx) 的指数衰减函数良好拟合 当前该指标值为54%,历史峰值的函数拟合值为71% BTC: Relative Unrealized Profit(相对未实现盈利)指标指的是链上所有BTC的总浮盈占现货总市值百分比(以美元计)
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20年06月,该指标突破0.12,之后 BTC 小爆拉 20年09月,该指标突破0.12,之后 BTC 大爆拉 24年10月,该指标突破0.12,之后 BTC 小爆拉 最近,该指标突破0.12 图中指标为链上长期持币者(持币>155天)的筹码在比特币现货价格 ±10% 范围内的集中度。即长期持币者的筹码中,买入成本价在现货价格 ±10% 范围内的筹码数量占长期持币者筹码总量百分比
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当前,“铜金价格比”处于历史低位,“以太坊比特币价格比”亦处于历史低位 值得一提的是,历史上二者颇为正相关(大饼是“数字黄金”,难道以太就是“数字纯铜”?🌚)
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