codedtrader
Open Trade
Frequent Trader
4.6 Years
I'm a Crypto investor and data analyst using quantitative models, on-chain valuations, and risk ratios to invest in optimal assets while minimizing risk.
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#Bitcoin Market Thread: Early Signals of a #Crypto Rebound?
mid chaos, lies opportunities. Let’s break it down:
1. AVIV Ratio Z-Score Rebound
On April 8th, the AVIV Ratio Z-Score rebounded exactly at the same level as Sept 6th, 2023 — which marked the start of a strong uptrend.
If history rhymes, this could be a pivot point
2. Realised Capital Multiplier (365D)
From @_checkonchain: the multiplier still signals low liquidity. Historically, this kind of environment aligns with market bottoms.
Liquidity = fuel. We're still at the gas station.
3. Short-Te
1. AVIV Ratio Z-Score Rebound
On April 8th, the AVIV Ratio Z-Score rebounded exactly at the same level as Sept 6th, 2023 — which marked the start of a strong uptrend.
If history rhymes, this could be a pivot point
2. Realised Capital Multiplier (365D)
From @_checkonchain: the multiplier still signals low liquidity. Historically, this kind of environment aligns with market bottoms.
Liquidity = fuel. We're still at the gas station.
3. Short-Te
#Crypto Market Analysis
1/ #SPX crashed -10.65% last week, but BTC only dipped -0.5%. Their correlation Z-score is 0.76, yet BTC’s not reacting to the nuke. TOTAL market cap vs. BTC/SPX ratio correlation dipped below zero yesterday—last seen Nov 5, 2023, a bottom for SPX & #BTC rally.
2/ BTC/SPX RSI (EMA-smoothed) has a positive RoC, signaling BTC strength. SPX skewness (-1.45, STD 0.01098) shows downside risk, while BTC’s (-0.12761, STD 0.01727) is stable. BTC vol-adjusted range: 79,079.28–86,659.88. Suggests resilie
2/ BTC/SPX RSI (EMA-smoothed) has a positive RoC, signaling BTC strength. SPX skewness (-1.45, STD 0.01098) shows downside risk, while BTC’s (-0.12761, STD 0.01727) is stable. BTC vol-adjusted range: 79,079.28–86,659.88. Suggests resilie
Crypto Market Update
The Choppiness Index is declining, signaling a potential shift in market regime. Bitcoin has been consolidating since late January, and multiple on-chain indicators suggest it’s oversold.
The Risk-Mosaic Indicator continues to signal a recovery. However, #Bitcoin is at a critical resistance level—historical data suggests it either breaks out or retraces to test lower levels as seen on the chart below.
Meanwhile, some #Altcoins are gaining strength while #BTC hesitates. Notably #Solana ($SOL),
The Risk-Mosaic Indicator continues to signal a recovery. However, #Bitcoin is at a critical resistance level—historical data suggests it either breaks out or retraces to test lower levels as seen on the chart below.
Meanwhile, some #Altcoins are gaining strength while #BTC hesitates. Notably #Solana ($SOL),
#Crypto Market Update: A Prime Buying Zone
The data is signaling a strong buy opportunity
1/ Short-Term Holder MVRV Bollinger Bands
$BTC is super oversold, indicating a great buying opportunity based on this metric.
2/ Short-Term Holder SOPR
This indicator tells us whether short-term BTC holders are selling at a profit or loss.
SOPR is rebounding and nearing neutral—a sign of potential recovery.
3/ Realized Capital Multiplier
Reading low liquidity, which often signals market bottoms.
4/ Supply Profit & Loss Ratio
In a high-value zone,
1/ Short-Term Holder MVRV Bollinger Bands
$BTC is super oversold, indicating a great buying opportunity based on this metric.
2/ Short-Term Holder SOPR
This indicator tells us whether short-term BTC holders are selling at a profit or loss.
SOPR is rebounding and nearing neutral—a sign of potential recovery.
3/ Realized Capital Multiplier
Reading low liquidity, which often signals market bottoms.
4/ Supply Profit & Loss Ratio
In a high-value zone,
Market Update: Key Insights & Warnings
1/ Pure Coca Indicator – A powerful analytical tool leveraging Z-score calculations to detect dynamic market shifts. Plotted on the BTC/GOLD ratio, it’s clear that $PAXG remains the superior asset, especially in these uncertain times.
2/ 42 Macro’s Warning – @DariusDale42 from 42 Macro emphasizes that if the FED doesn’t expand its balance sheet this year, we could see a 20-30% drop in the S&P 500—which remains highly correlated with #Bitcoin. According to him the U.S is undergoing a significan
2/ 42 Macro’s Warning – @DariusDale42 from 42 Macro emphasizes that if the FED doesn’t expand its balance sheet this year, we could see a 20-30% drop in the S&P 500—which remains highly correlated with #Bitcoin. According to him the U.S is undergoing a significan
The market has been relatively quiet over the weekend, with no significant changes in on-chain data. There was a slight decline yesterday, but the market has almost reversed those losses this morning. Additionally, there are no bearish headlines related to tariffs or rate hikes. At a glance, $BTC may retest its previous lows before rebounding. While it consolidates, some altcoins could experience isolated pumps. On my watchlist are $BNB & $CRV
Crypto Market Update:
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) gives us insight into whether #bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or loss. Right now, short-term holders are selling at a loss, but SOPR is rebounding. As a support/resistance indicator: When SOPR nears 1, it acts as a key market sentiment level. If it bounces above 1 means bullish continuation.
Realized Capital Multiplier (365-day) from Checkonchain shows extreme low liquidity.
Low liquidity (blue/green) often signals market bottoms → strong buying opp
Realized Capital Multiplier (365-day) from Checkonchain shows extreme low liquidity.
Low liquidity (blue/green) often signals market bottoms → strong buying opp
The Last Cut: Could Trump’s Tariff War End the Dollar’s Reign?
Imagine a child picking up a sharp knife, thinking he can carve a masterpiece. That’s Donald Trump in his second term, using tariffs like a tool to reshape America’s economy. He wants factories back, jobs booming, and America stronger. But here’s the risk: sharp tools can cut both ways.
Trump is shaking up the global economy, and the U.S. dollar—the backbone of American power—is feeling the pressure. Even if he stops now, the damage might already be done. And in the background, Bitcoin is watchi
Trump is shaking up the global economy, and the U.S. dollar—the backbone of American power—is feeling the pressure. Even if he stops now, the damage might already be done. And in the background, Bitcoin is watchi
Crypto Market Update
The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) plotted on total Crypto market cap has entered a trending state, confirming a downtrend.
$BTC cycle valuation broke below neutral for the first time since early November, when it crossed above this threshold.
Analyst Tomas’ prediction of the TGA spenddown is playing out as expected, but BTC isn’t responding positively. Instead, it’s moving opposite to this liquidity injection.
Quick take on US debt ceiling: The U.S. has fooled itself longest. With a $39.8T li
$BTC cycle valuation broke below neutral for the first time since early November, when it crossed above this threshold.
Analyst Tomas’ prediction of the TGA spenddown is playing out as expected, but BTC isn’t responding positively. Instead, it’s moving opposite to this liquidity injection.
Quick take on US debt ceiling: The U.S. has fooled itself longest. With a $39.8T li
"You Can’t Fool All the People All the Time—or Can You?"
By Grok 3, xAI | March 12, 2025
“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time,” Abraham Lincoln supposedly quipped. Oh, Abe, how quaint. For decades, the U.S. government’s been testing that theory, racking up a $39.8 trillion gap between its $45.5 trillion in liabilities and $5.7 trillion in assets, per the FY 2024 Financial Report [1]. Spoiler: we might’ve fooled ourselves longest.
How’d we get here? Simple—sp
“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time,” Abraham Lincoln supposedly quipped. Oh, Abe, how quaint. For decades, the U.S. government’s been testing that theory, racking up a $39.8 trillion gap between its $45.5 trillion in liabilities and $5.7 trillion in assets, per the FY 2024 Financial Report [1]. Spoiler: we might’ve fooled ourselves longest.
How’d we get here? Simple—sp
CPI Report & Market Impact: What to Expect for #Crypto Investors
Today’s #CPI report will set the tone for markets. Here’s how different outcomes could play out:
Higher-than-Expected CPI (Stagflation Narrative)
Risk-off: Stocks (especially tech/growth) could drop, investors seek safety in bonds/commodities.
Weaker-than-Expected CPI (Recession Fears)
Risk-off: Cyclical stocks may suffer, safe havens like gold may rise.
#Bitcoin & Crypto Correlation with #SPX
BTC remains highly correlated with the S&P 500, which is in a correction phase. Any decline in stocks
Higher-than-Expected CPI (Stagflation Narrative)
Risk-off: Stocks (especially tech/growth) could drop, investors seek safety in bonds/commodities.
Weaker-than-Expected CPI (Recession Fears)
Risk-off: Cyclical stocks may suffer, safe havens like gold may rise.
#Bitcoin & Crypto Correlation with #SPX
BTC remains highly correlated with the S&P 500, which is in a correction phase. Any decline in stocks
Market Update: #Crypto at a Critical Point
Right now, the market may seem irrational—despite bullish headlines on crypto adoption, prices aren’t mooning. But sophisticated investors don’t let narratives dictate their actions. We analyze where the data flows.
Key Findings:
Choppiness Index determines whether a market is trending or range-bound, the chart shows $BTC is still consolidating. This suggests a mean reversion phase.
However, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test signals the TOTAL crypto market is shiftin
Key Findings:
Choppiness Index determines whether a market is trending or range-bound, the chart shows $BTC is still consolidating. This suggests a mean reversion phase.
However, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test signals the TOTAL crypto market is shiftin
Stablecoins at ATH: What It Means for Crypto!
The combined market cap of the top 5 stablecoins has surpassed $200B for the first time ever. This signals a major shift in #market sentiment.
Risk-Off Mode?
Investors are parking capital in stablecoins, signaling caution.
🔸 The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates in 2025 raises market uncertainty.
🔸 $BTC correction below $70K is now a real possibility.
🔸 Stablecoins = sidelined liquidity, waiting for a better entry point.
Short Squeeze Loading?
🔻 Funding rates are negative
Risk-Off Mode?
Investors are parking capital in stablecoins, signaling caution.
🔸 The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates in 2025 raises market uncertainty.
🔸 $BTC correction below $70K is now a real possibility.
🔸 Stablecoins = sidelined liquidity, waiting for a better entry point.
Short Squeeze Loading?
🔻 Funding rates are negative
Markets are on edge, not just in crypto, but globally. Geopolitical tensions, economic policy shifts, and liquidity risks are fueling wild price swings. We've seen $BTC move $10K+ in both directions multiple times in just a week, and altcoins are even more volatile.
This is not the time for reckless trading. Jumping in and out without a strategy can be costly. Stay disciplined, manage risk, and wait for high-probability setups. In uncertain times, capital preservation is just as important as profit.
This is not the time for reckless trading. Jumping in and out without a strategy can be costly. Stay disciplined, manage risk, and wait for high-probability setups. In uncertain times, capital preservation is just as important as profit.
Market Volatility Alert
Buckle up, crypto fam! Over the past week, BTC has seen $10K+ price swings, and altcoins are even wilder. More volatility is on the table, and here’s why.
$BTC
There’s growing concern about a potential global refinancing air pocket—a scenario where companies struggle to refinance debt due to high interest rates & tight credit. While it hasn’t happened yet, risks are building.
Imagine a plane hitting turbulence and suddenly dropping. That’s what happens in finance when debt refi
$BTC
There’s growing concern about a potential global refinancing air pocket—a scenario where companies struggle to refinance debt due to high interest rates & tight credit. While it hasn’t happened yet, risks are building.
Imagine a plane hitting turbulence and suddenly dropping. That’s what happens in finance when debt refi
Crypto Market Warning: High Volatility Ahead
1/ Trump’s Tariff Shock 🏛️
Trump’s new tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico, +20% on China) have rattled global markets. Traders are taking profits, wiping out gains from his crypto reserve announcement.
2/ Elon vs. The Fed
Musk calls the Fed "absurdly overstaffed" while Gross Operating Profit (GOP) scrutiny adds uncertainty. Crypto, highly sensitive to macro policies, is feeling the heat. Without a clear pro-crypto stance or rate cuts, expect turbulence.
3/ Geopolitical Chaos & Ma
Trump’s new tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico, +20% on China) have rattled global markets. Traders are taking profits, wiping out gains from his crypto reserve announcement.
2/ Elon vs. The Fed
Musk calls the Fed "absurdly overstaffed" while Gross Operating Profit (GOP) scrutiny adds uncertainty. Crypto, highly sensitive to macro policies, is feeling the heat. Without a clear pro-crypto stance or rate cuts, expect turbulence.
3/ Geopolitical Chaos & Ma
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
1/ Big moves in crypto! 🚀 Yesterday, President Trump announced a Crypto Strategic Reserve, aiming to make the U.S. the world's crypto capital. The market soared, with some tokens gaining 20% in a single daily candle. But was this an overreaction? 🧐
2/ According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), extreme reactions to news often correct themselves. And that’s exactly what’s happening today… 🔻
3/ The market is dumping. Some altcoins are already down 10%, and Bitcoin dominance is above 60
2/ According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), extreme reactions to news often correct themselves. And that’s exactly what’s happening today… 🔻
3/ The market is dumping. Some altcoins are already down 10%, and Bitcoin dominance is above 60
Is SOL’s Downtrend Coming to an End?
1/ Solana's downtrend may be reaching its final stage. According to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), SOL is currently deeply oversold—a level not seen since June 14, 2023.
Back then, this oversold signal marked the beginning of an explosive 1,368% rally over the next 9 months. Could history be repeating?
2/ Further confirmation comes from SOL/ETH and SOL/BTC ratios, which are showing slight divergence based on the Fourier Smoothed Volume Zone Oscillator (FSVZO). This suggests a possible shift
Back then, this oversold signal marked the beginning of an explosive 1,368% rally over the next 9 months. Could history be repeating?
2/ Further confirmation comes from SOL/ETH and SOL/BTC ratios, which are showing slight divergence based on the Fourier Smoothed Volume Zone Oscillator (FSVZO). This suggests a possible shift
The more sophisticated you become in investing, the more you realize that probability is the true currency of the market. Yet, plenty of inexperienced traders love to call themselves "risk-seeking" when, in reality, they’re just chasing rewards while doing everything possible to avoid actual risk. Funny how that works, until the very thing they fear most inevitably catches up with them.
@AGInoMETRICS (X handle) has done an outstanding job using advanced statistical models to analyze Bitcoin’s historical data and map out probabilistic expectations for potential drawdowns each month. So before you go all-in with a ridiculous amount of leverage, maybe take a second to set your expectations straight.
$BTC #CryptoTrading.
@AGInoMETRICS (X handle) has done an outstanding job using advanced statistical models to analyze Bitcoin’s historical data and map out probabilistic expectations for potential drawdowns each month. So before you go all-in with a ridiculous amount of leverage, maybe take a second to set your expectations straight.
$BTC #CryptoTrading.
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