codedtrader

mid chaos, lies opportunities. Let’s break it down:

1. AVIV Ratio Z-Score Rebound
On April 8th, the AVIV Ratio Z-Score rebounded exactly at the same level as Sept 6th, 2023 — which marked the start of a strong uptrend.
If history rhymes, this could be a pivot point

2. Realised Capital Multiplier (365D)
From @_checkonchain: the multiplier still signals low liquidity. Historically, this kind of environment aligns with market bottoms.
Liquidity = fuel. We're still at the gas station.

3. Short-Term Holder MVRV
Currently reading oversold. In a bull market context, that’s typically a reversal signal.
Translation: short-term pain, long-term gain territory.

4. STH Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio
Oversold
Beginning to rebound
This aligns with past cycle re-accumulation phases. The weak hands are exhausted.

55. Halving Price Regression (HPR)
The famous Bitcoin Rainbow Chart isn’t dead yet
Even though this cycle hasn’t followed halving narratives… price just bounced exactly above the Halving Price Regression line.

Coincidence or structure?

6. Daily Price Distribution Skewness
Since Feb 8th: Negative skew — market was leaning bearish
On April 7th: Flipped positive
This flip historically marks trend change thresholds.

But Here's the Caveat...
$BTC is still highly correlated with the SPX.
And #SPX isn’t showing a clean reversal yet. A nuke in equities = contagion risk for crypto.

So while signs point to a rebound… we need SPX to play nice

TL;DR
On-chain data = Bullish
Macro = Cautious
Early signals are here. But patience and discipline are still our best tools.

Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe, then act.
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Have a productive week ahead.

1/ #SPX crashed -10.65% last week, but BTC only dipped -0.5%. Their correlation Z-score is 0.76, yet BTC’s not reacting to the nuke. TOTAL market cap vs. BTC/SPX ratio correlation dipped below zero yesterday—last seen Nov 5, 2023, a bottom for SPX & #BTC rally.

2/ BTC/SPX RSI (EMA-smoothed) has a positive RoC, signaling BTC strength. SPX skewness (-1.45, STD 0.01098) shows downside risk, while BTC’s (-0.12761, STD 0.01727) is stable. BTC vol-adjusted range: 79,079.28–86,659.88. Suggests resilience.

3/ #SOL shines: positive Sharpe & Sortino ratios, oversold, skewness 0.67301 (STD 0.04547). OTHERS.D Z-score -1.02 signals #Altcoins decoupling from BTC dominance. SOL’s the optimal asset here.

4/ Strategy: Long $SOL now—best risk/reward, oversold with upside skew. Optional BTC long (79K–86K range) as a hedge. Avoid SPX until recovery clears.

Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act.

If you found this article helpful, please like and share. Happy weekend.

The Choppiness Index is declining, signaling a potential shift in market regime. Bitcoin has been consolidating since late January, and multiple on-chain indicators suggest it’s oversold.

The Risk-Mosaic Indicator continues to signal a recovery. However, #Bitcoin is at a critical resistance level—historical data suggests it either breaks out or retraces to test lower levels as seen on the chart below.

Meanwhile, some #Altcoins are gaining strength while #BTC hesitates. Notably #Solana ($SOL), which underperformed during BTC’s range, its ratio against BTC is showing signs of momentum—RSI just crossed 50, and its EMA is aggressively trending up.

If you found this article helpful, like and share to support my work.

Remember: Novices panic and react. Real Gs observe, then act.
Have a productive week ahead!

The data is signaling a strong buy opportunity
1/ Short-Term Holder MVRV Bollinger Bands
$BTC is super oversold, indicating a great buying opportunity based on this metric.

2/ Short-Term Holder SOPR
This indicator tells us whether short-term BTC holders are selling at a profit or loss.
SOPR is rebounding and nearing neutral—a sign of potential recovery.

3/ Realized Capital Multiplier
Reading low liquidity, which often signals market bottoms.

4/ Supply Profit & Loss Ratio
In a high-value zone, historically associated with market capitulation.

5/ RiskMosaic – Risk On/Off System
This framework integrates liquidity, sentiment, volatility, and macro factors. Currently at -0.35 (Blue), which signals market recovery. Additionally, Parabolic SAR flipped bullish yesterday, indicating a resumption of the uptrend.

No single indicator is 100% accurate, but when multiple high-quality technical and on-chain signals align, it creates strong confluence for high-probability trades.

Novices panic and react. Real Gs observe, then act.

1/ Pure Coca Indicator – A powerful analytical tool leveraging Z-score calculations to detect dynamic market shifts. Plotted on the BTC/GOLD ratio, it’s clear that $PAXG remains the superior asset, especially in these uncertain times.

2/ 42 Macro’s Warning – @DariusDale42 from 42 Macro emphasizes that if the FED doesn’t expand its balance sheet this year, we could see a 20-30% drop in the S&P 500—which remains highly correlated with #Bitcoin. According to him the U.S is undergoing a significant transformation, he then highlights the grand scale & complexity of the U.S. economy and capital markets in his tweet. He concluded a transition of this magnitude is unlikely to be short and shallow—expect a prolonged, painful process.

3/ Looking at the Total Crypto Market, ADF Indicator suggests a continued downtrend, with the smoothed SMA staying above the mid-line threshold—as seen on the chart.

4/ Liquidity injections from TGA spenddown continue to rise, yet crypto is not reacting positively. The correlation remains negative, as shown in the coefficient correlation data.

5/ Despite a weak overall crypto market, OTHERS (excluding the top 10 tokens) is strengthening. The RSI suggests some oversold #Altcoins with strong fundamentals may see isolated rallies. Watch closely.

6/ The Choppiness Index confirms that #Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase. Patience is key.

7/ Final Thoughts – In times of uncertainty, cash or gold remain optimal choices.

Novices panic & react, but real Gs observe then act.
Stay sharp. Stay strategic.

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Thanks

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) gives us insight into whether #bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or loss. Right now, short-term holders are selling at a loss, but SOPR is rebounding. As a support/resistance indicator: When SOPR nears 1, it acts as a key market sentiment level. If it bounces above 1 means bullish continuation.

Realized Capital Multiplier (365-day) from Checkonchain shows extreme low liquidity.
Low liquidity (blue/green) often signals market bottoms → strong buying opportunities.

TGA Spend-Down Effect & Liquidity Injection
Treasury injected $80B+ into the market yesterday.
While $BTC hasn’t reacted strongly to recent injections, markets may be pricing it in.

Remember:
Novices panic and react, while Real Gs observe then act.

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Thank you.

Imagine a child picking up a sharp knife, thinking he can carve a masterpiece. That’s Donald Trump in his second term, using tariffs like a tool to reshape America’s economy. He wants factories back, jobs booming, and America stronger. But here’s the risk: sharp tools can cut both ways.
Trump is shaking up the global economy, and the U.S. dollar—the backbone of American power—is feeling the pressure. Even if he stops now, the damage might already be done. And in the background, Bitcoin is watching, waiting for its chance to take the throne.
Let’s break this down.
The Tariff Storm: What’s Happening?
Trump wasted no time in 2025, launching tariffs left and right. Canada, China, Europe—no one is safe. His goal? Bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and reduce America’s reliance on foreign goods.
But here’s the problem: tariffs make things more expensive. Prices go up, inflation rises, and suddenly, everyday Americans are paying more for the same products. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is getting stronger because other countries are struggling more than we are. That sounds good, right? Not exactly.
A strong dollar makes American exports more expensive, which hurts businesses trying to sell overseas. The Federal Reserve, America’s financial watchdog, is now stuck—should they cut interest rates to help businesses, or keep them high to fight inflation? It’s a tough balancing act. And as uncertainty grows, America’s allies are starting to look for other options.
The Dollar's Power: Can It Hold?
For decades, the U.S. dollar has been the king of global money. Countries use it for trade, store it in their reserves, and trust it more than their own currencies. This gives America enormous power.
Trump understands this and wants to keep the dollar strong, but also make it weaker in some ways to help U.S. businesses. It’s like trying to have your cake and eat it too. He has even floated the idea of a new agreement, like the 1980s deal with Japan to adjust currency values. But today’s world is different. China is not Japan. China is stockpiling gold, holding tight to its yuan, and preparing for a world where the dollar isn’t in charge.
Other countries are starting to push back, too. Some, like Russia and China, are trying to trade with their own currencies instead of the dollar. If that trend grows, America’s financial power could weaken.
Bitcoin: The Unexpected Challenger
Enter Bitcoin—the digital currency born in 2008 as a rebellion against the financial system. No banks, no central authority, just code and math. It’s designed to be limited in supply, like digital gold.
Could it snatch the dollar’s crown? Imagine nations trading oil in BTC, dodging U.S. sanctions, their reserves in digital wallets. Its neutrality tempts BRICS and beyond—no one freezes your stash. But this colt’s still wild—prices leap like a jackrabbit ($16,000 to $100,000 in years), and it chugs at seven deals a second while the dollar’s a roaring river. Trust’s in math, not might, yet governments snarl, banning or bridling it.
But here’s why some countries are interested: it can’t be controlled by any government, transactions locked by cryptography, dodge meddling hands. If a country doesn’t want to deal with U.S. sanctions, Bitcoin offers a way out. And as trust in traditional systems shakes, more people and nations might turn to it.
What Comes Next?
Financial expert James Rickards warns that the U.S. dollar is on shaky ground. If tariffs push more countries toward alternatives like Bitcoin or gold, the global financial system could shift in ways we’ve never seen before.
If Trump’s strategy works, American manufacturing could grow, jobs could increase, and the country could become more self-reliant. But if things go wrong, inflation could surge, the economy could slow down, and the dollar could lose some of its power.
Fast forward to 2050: Could Bitcoin become the new global currency? Maybe. More likely, it will play a bigger role alongside the dollar. But one thing is certain—change is coming.
The dollar is under pressure, Bitcoin is rising, and the world is watching closely.
Are you ready?

#macroeconomic #USTariffs $BTC #USDollarWarning

The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) plotted on total Crypto market cap has entered a trending state, confirming a downtrend.

$BTC cycle valuation broke below neutral for the first time since early November, when it crossed above this threshold.

Analyst Tomas’ prediction of the TGA spenddown is playing out as expected, but BTC isn’t responding positively. Instead, it’s moving opposite to this liquidity injection.

Quick take on US debt ceiling: The U.S. has fooled itself longest. With a $39.8T liability gap, a $1.8T deficit, and $9T in 2025 maturities, the debt ceiling standoff is a ticking time bomb. If yields spike, expect market chaos.

Prepare accordingly—when this unwinds, it won’t be gentle.

Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act.
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Thank you

By Grok 3, xAI | March 12, 2025
“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time,” Abraham Lincoln supposedly quipped. Oh, Abe, how quaint. For decades, the U.S. government’s been testing that theory, racking up a $39.8 trillion gap between its $45.5 trillion in liabilities and $5.7 trillion in assets, per the FY 2024 Financial Report [1]. Spoiler: we might’ve fooled ourselves longest.
How’d we get here? Simple—spend like there’s no tomorrow. The feds borrowed $2 trillion in 2024 alone to cover a $1.8 trillion deficit, pushing federal debt to $28.3 trillion [2]. Add $15 trillion in pension and veteran promises—because who doesn’t love a good IOU?—and assets like $1.8 trillion in student loans barely dent the hole [1]. It’s not a conspiracy; it’s math. Decades of deficits, from Reagan to Biden, built this beast, with debt-to-GDP now at 100% and eyeing 236% by 2050 [3].
Enter the debt ceiling, back at $36.1 trillion since January [2]. Treasury’s juggling $1 trillion in cash and tricks, but $9 trillion in 2025 debt maturities looms [4]. If Congress balks—GOP infighting’s a Fitch Ratings worry [5]—yields could spike, choking a “global refinancing air pocket.” With $24.3 trillion in global corporate debt due soon, a U.S. hiccup could jack rates, sink firms, and crash markets [6].
Sentiment’s already rotten—consumer confidence at 98.3, Fear & Greed in “extreme fear” [7]—and X screams “collapse!”
Lincoln’s smug certainty says the crowd’ll wise up. Historically, bad vibes mark bottoms—2022’s gloom didn’t crash us [8]. But this time’s spicier: tariffs, layoffs, a $45.5 trillion tab. A ceiling standoff could torch the S&P 30% to 3,500 if refinancing stalls and the Fed freezes [9].
Variable t—when it hits—is anyone’s guess, but the gap’s a loaded gun.
So, Abe, maybe you’re wrong. We’ve fooled plenty, piling debt like it’s Monopoly money. Prepare anyway—when this unwinds, it won’t be gentle.
Sources:
1. U.S. Treasury, FY 2024 Financial Report (Feb 2025)
2. TreasuryDirect, Debt to the Penny (Sep 30, 2024)
3. Penn Wharton Budget Model (2024)
4. X posts, market estimates (Mar 2025)
5. Fitch Ratings, U.S. Sovereign Outlook (Feb 2025)
6. S&P Global Ratings, Debt Maturity Report (2024)
7. Conference Board (Feb 2025); CNN Fear & Greed Index
8. BLS, GDP Archives (2022)
9. Goldman Sachs, Recession Odds (Jan 2025)

Today’s #CPI report will set the tone for markets. Here’s how different outcomes could play out:
Higher-than-Expected CPI (Stagflation Narrative)
Risk-off: Stocks (especially tech/growth) could drop, investors seek safety in bonds/commodities.
Weaker-than-Expected CPI (Recession Fears)
Risk-off: Cyclical stocks may suffer, safe havens like gold may rise.

#Bitcoin & Crypto Correlation with #SPX
BTC remains highly correlated with the S&P 500, which is in a correction phase. Any decline in stocks could drag crypto lower, as it’s still seen as a risky asset.

Safe-Haven Play: Gold & #PAXG
With uncertainty rising, investors are looking for safe-haven assets like T-bills or gold. #Gold (AUX) has been in a sustained uptrend since late 2023.
For crypto investors, PAX Gold (PAXG) offers an on-chain alternative. Each PAXG token is backed by 1 fine troy ounce of gold stored in London vaults, giving investors direct exposure to gold’s price movements.


BTC/Gold Ratio Signals Gold Preference
At this critical market point, gold is showing strength relative to $BTC
Stay vigilant.

Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act.

If you found this article useful, please like and share. Thank you

Right now, the market may seem irrational—despite bullish headlines on crypto adoption, prices aren’t mooning. But sophisticated investors don’t let narratives dictate their actions. We analyze where the data flows.


Key Findings:

Choppiness Index determines whether a market is trending or range-bound, the chart shows $BTC is still consolidating. This suggests a mean reversion phase.

However, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test signals the TOTAL crypto market is shifting into a trending regime—but not UP. The divergence in the chart speaks for itself.

Short-Term Holder MVRV: Measures profit/loss of short-term BTC holders relative to their cost basis. Currently holders are at a loss, with the lower band at ~$74.6K. A break down below this level could trigger massive liquidations.

Conclusion: Yesterday, the Supertrend indicator triggered a #BTC downtrend. The market is experiencing a relief bounce today, but don’t be fooled into thinking the dip is over. Levels to watch are on the chart above.

If you found this article helpful, please like and share.
Novices panic & react. Real Gs observe, then act.

The combined market cap of the top 5 stablecoins has surpassed $200B for the first time ever. This signals a major shift in #market sentiment.
Risk-Off Mode?

Investors are parking capital in stablecoins, signaling caution.
🔸 The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates in 2025 raises market uncertainty.

🔸 $BTC correction below $70K is now a real possibility.

🔸 Stablecoins = sidelined liquidity, waiting for a better entry point.

Short Squeeze Loading?

🔻 Funding rates are negative, showing excessive short positioning.
This means traders are heavily betting on a further BTC drop. But if Bitcoin holds key support levels, a short squeeze could send prices flying. 🚀

"An idiot with a plan can beat a genius without a plan."
~ Warren Buffett

Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act. Stay sharp, Stay strategic.

Buckle up, crypto fam! Over the past week, BTC has seen $10K+ price swings, and altcoins are even wilder. More volatility is on the table, and here’s why.
$BTC

There’s growing concern about a potential global refinancing air pocket—a scenario where companies struggle to refinance debt due to high interest rates & tight credit. While it hasn’t happened yet, risks are building.
Imagine a plane hitting turbulence and suddenly dropping. That’s what happens in finance when debt refinancing dries up, causing capital to flee risky markets.
So far, looking at the data:
Funding Rate: 0.0095 (longs are paying shorts, meaning bullish bias)Open Interest: +6.49% (traders are loading up on positions)
What does this mean?

Leverage is building up
If macro conditions shift risk-off, we could see liquidations & wild swings
BTC and alts remain highly sensitive to liquidity shocks
If the global refinancing air pocket materializes, institutions may de-risk, triggering forced liquidations and big price swings.
The crypto markets are still in play, but the next moves will be highly reactive to liquidity conditions. Adapt & stay ahead!
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe, then act.

1/ Trump’s Tariff Shock 🏛️
Trump’s new tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico, +20% on China) have rattled global markets. Traders are taking profits, wiping out gains from his crypto reserve announcement.

2/ Elon vs. The Fed
Musk calls the Fed "absurdly overstaffed" while Gross Operating Profit (GOP) scrutiny adds uncertainty. Crypto, highly sensitive to macro policies, is feeling the heat. Without a clear pro-crypto stance or rate cuts, expect turbulence.
3/ Geopolitical Chaos & Market Risk 🌍
US halts military aid to UkraineEU ramps up €800B defense spending
History shows crypto struggles under geopolitical stress. Market down 14.7% in 24H to $2.64T. Risk-off mode activated.
4/ True Market Mean AVIV Ratio: BTC Overheated? 🔥
AVIV, which tracks BTC’s real cost basis, sits at a Z-score of 0.76, signaling an overbought market. This metric rarely lies—caution is warranted.

5/ Potential 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Incoming? 📉🔄
BTC history shows deep retracements after long uptrends:
2010–2015: 23.6% retrace2015–2017: 38.2% retrace2020–2021: 50% retrace2023–Now: No major correction yet…
6/ BTC’s 90-day daily return skewness flipped negative (Feb 8), left tail growing = rising downside risk.

7/ We analysts dive where data flows, for history is not merely the past bestowed but the present explained, clear and profound.
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe, then act. Stay Sharp. Stay Strategic.
$BTC

1/ Big moves in crypto! 🚀 Yesterday, President Trump announced a Crypto Strategic Reserve, aiming to make the U.S. the world's crypto capital. The market soared, with some tokens gaining 20% in a single daily candle. But was this an overreaction? 🧐

2/ According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), extreme reactions to news often correct themselves. And that’s exactly what’s happening today… 🔻
3/ The market is dumping. Some altcoins are already down 10%, and Bitcoin dominance is above 60%. BTC is the only crypto holding steady, signaling a flight to safety. ⚠️
4/ For sophisticated investors, risk management is key. 📉 With BTC dominance high and altcoins bleeding, allocation strategy matters. Be cautious to minimize risk exposure.
5/ Critical levels to watch:
🔹 $BTC – Resistance: 96,158.75 | Support: 91,412.42
🔹 $SOL – Resistance: 207.5 | Support: 131.91
🔹 $SUI – Resistance: 3.92 | Support: 2.54

6/ These levels aren’t random. They are derived from historical data, calculated using daily returns & statistical analysis to form probabilistic expectations. 🔬
7/ With crypto’s volatility, market structure can shift quickly. Smart money is already repositioning—are you? Stay sharp. ⚡
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Altcoins #Trump #MarketAnalysis