1/ Trump’s Tariff Shock 🏛️
Trump’s new tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico, +20% on China) have rattled global markets. Traders are taking profits, wiping out gains from his crypto reserve announcement.
2/ Elon vs. The Fed
Musk calls the Fed "absurdly overstaffed" while Gross Operating Profit (GOP) scrutiny adds uncertainty. Crypto, highly sensitive to macro policies, is feeling the heat. Without a clear pro-crypto stance or rate cuts, expect turbulence.
3/ Geopolitical Chaos & Market Risk 🌍
US halts military aid to Ukraine
EU ramps up €800B defense spending
History shows crypto struggles under geopolitical stress. Market down 14.7% in 24H to $2.64T. Risk-off mode activated.
4/ True Market Mean AVIV Ratio: BTC Overheated? 🔥
AVIV, which tracks BTC’s real cost basis, sits at a Z-score of 0.76, signaling an overbought market. This metric rarely lies—caution is warranted.
5/ Potential 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Incoming? 📉🔄
BTC history shows deep retracements after long uptrends:
2010–2015: 23.6% retrace
2015–2017: 38.2% retrace
2020–2021: 50% retrace
2023–Now: No major correction yet…
6/ BTC’s 90-day daily return skewness flipped negative (Feb 8), left tail growing = rising downside risk.
7/ We analysts dive where data flows, for history is not merely the past bestowed but the present explained, clear and profound.
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe, then act. Stay Sharp. Stay Strategic.
$BTC
