疯人院BTC

$ETH Federal Reserve's "Infighting" Truth: Don't Be Blinded by the "Rate Cut Illusion"

Recently, conflicting interest rate signals from Federal Reserve officials are not simply a case of "infighting," but rather a strategic differentiation in expectation management conducted in different contexts. This "hawk-dove interweaving" situation precisely reveals three key risks:

Expectation Game, Market Over-Optimism

The market's bets on "rate cuts this year" have significantly outpaced reality. In fact, the stickiness of core inflation, resilience in the labor market, and geopolitical risks have made the Federal Reserve exceptionally cautious in its rate cut decisions. The dot plot shows that most officials expect fewer than three rate cuts this year, indicating a clear "expectation gap" with market expectations. This differentiation can easily be misinterpreted as “rate cuts approaching,” but in reality, it conveys a stance of “longer and higher” rates.

Liquidity Trap, Cryptocurrency Vulnerability Intensifies

Historical data shows that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin exhibit significantly increased volatility during the Federal Reserve's tightening cycles. In the current global tightening environment, the cryptocurrency sector's sensitivity to rate cut expectations poses a "deadly temptation." If expectations for rate cuts are disappointed or delayed, high-risk assets will bear the brunt. The collapses of UST and LUNA have already proven that, when US dollar liquidity recedes, the structural fragility of the crypto market becomes glaringly apparent.

Policy Lag, Beware of the "Last Hurrah"

The transmission of monetary policy is inherently lagging, and markets often fall into a "false prosperity" at the tail end of tightening. The current rebound in the crypto market is more driven by technical factors such as ETF fund inflows rather than improvements in fundamentals. If inflation shows signs of rebound, the Federal Reserve may even release stronger "hawkish" signals, leading to sharp corrections in risk asset prices.

Conclusion:
The real risk does not lie in whether the Federal Reserve is experiencing "infighting," but rather in the market's selective listening to "dove sounds." Cryptocurrency investors must clearly recognize: rate cuts are by no means an imminent "sugar coating," but rather a "distant mountain" filled with uncertainty. Before there is substantial improvement in liquidity, any speculation based on rate cut expectations could become a sharp sickle that harvests retail investors. Maintaining defensive positions and being vigilant about increased volatility is the path to survival in the current cycle.

$ETH Brothers, the order from New Year's Eve has already stopped winning. After the holiday, we will resume live broadcasts to study trading. Happy New Year

$ETH Brothers, more than 2960 has already been received, stop profit at 3020. At the beginning in the live room, I thought I wouldn't be able to receive it. Wishing everyone a Happy New Year, may you start making profits and become wealthy. We will start broadcasting again after the New Year.

Can $ETH allow me to eat meat? After all the back and forth, I've finally made it through.

The market next Monday is unpredictable now, brother

$AVNT profit backtest, I just said we can't play with knockoffs, it's more suitable to play with mainstream

$AVNT said he wouldn't play counterfeit, hand injury

$ETH $BTC No market activity, this order will probably have to wait until Monday

$ETH Family, who understands? Both times the entry points were very close. Last night, the short at 2970 peaked at 2969.99, just dropped by 0.01. Then last night I placed a new short order at 2995, peaked at 2994, just 1 point difference. Can’t you just push it a bit more, Dog Boss?