云恒de日记

Morning Analysis on October 5th
Last night, Old Bao spoke, and as I expected, the big pancake fell from around 974 to 957 and then bounced back to around 971, experiencing significant ups and downs, a beautiful V-shaped movement continuing to unfold. The levels remain unchanged, but positions have disappeared. Recently, the focus is on the China-US negotiations; if favorable, it may break through 980 and continue upward. Given the recent large fluctuations, please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical analysis perspective, the overall significant ups and downs have led to a consolidation state. The MACD on the four-hour chart is in positive territory, with the histogram shortening and the momentum weakening, indicating a possible pullback. The RSI hovers around 60, and if it enters overbought territory, there is also a possibility of downward movement. Given this situation, the focus this morning is on high volatility and low momentum.

For a rebound, focus on 980-975 area for buying
Target around 965-960.
For a rebound at 1860—1840, focus on buying
Target around 1780-1760.

When Old Bao speaks, there must be a butterfly situation. Looking back, I can't recall a time when Old Bao spoke without causing a butterfly effect, so I am very sure.

1. 当地时间5月7日，美股在周三交易时段迎来高开行情。中美即将开启高层经贸会谈引发市场高度关注，同时投资者也在翘首以盼美联储即将公布的利率决议。开盘之际，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.4%，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别上扬0.1%

Evening Analysis on 5.7
The pancake has oscillated upward during the midday session, reaching around the 970 line, and has continued to fluctuate within this range, remaining in a consolidation state. Recent momentum is leaning towards an upward trend, but various indicators suggest an overbought condition, indicating potential pullback pressure. Please adjust according to market trends flexibly.

From a technical perspective, the overall state is one of consolidation. The appearance of three rising red candles and a doji may indicate a trend reversal, while the upper shadow may increase pullback pressure. The KDJ is in the overbought zone, and there could be a pullback in the short term. The specific trend will depend on the comments made during the early morning to ultimately judge the direction. In this situation, it is crucial to maintain good defense and avoid holding against the trend. Given this point, the evening will mainly focus on high shorts and low longs.

For rebounds around 973-978, aim for shorts.
Target around 958-964.
For rebounds around 1840-1870, aim for shorts.
Target around 1800-1770.

On May 7, it was reported that starting from May 6 local time, the Federal Reserve has begun a two-day monetary policy meeting, and this time it has almost become a foregone conclusion that interest rates will not be lowered. Under the shadow of tariffs, this may be the last meeting where the outcome is predicted with such certainty. Currently, the market is eagerly watching the subsequent direction of interest rates, but it is highly likely to be disappointed. Trump, who has been strongly demanding the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, will he stand up immediately after the decision is announced to criticize Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, given the Fed's likely decision to maintain interest rates? Let's wait and see.

Clear midday analysis

The upward direction as scheduled determines everything#美联储FOMC会议 #美国稳定币法案 #BTC #BTC走势分析 #ETH

This morning, the price of Bitcoin surged significantly, which may be related to several important recent news events:

- Easing of international trade tensions: The US and China are likely to reconcile in trade, with representatives from both sides confirmed to hold talks in Geneva, Switzerland, aimed at restoring trade negotiations. Meanwhile, the UK and US are also about to reach a trade agreement that will provide lower tariff quotas for British steel and automotive exports, expected to be signed this week, which has positive implications for global economic confidence.

- Advancement of Bitcoin reserve legislation: Several states in the US have recently taken significant actions regarding strategic reserves of Bitcoin. The Arizona State Legislature has passed the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act," which, if signed by the governor, will allow the state government to invest up to 10% of public funds in Bitcoin; New Hampshire has also passed related legislation allowing the state government to invest up to 5% of public funds in Bitcoin. This series of measures indicates that Bitcoin is gradually gaining recognition in mainstream finance.

- Adjustment of China’s monetary policy: China has announced an interest rate cut, which will increase market liquidity, leading to more funds available for investment. Some of this capital may flow into various investment markets, including Bitcoin, thereby affecting its price.

- Large-scale corporate financing arrangements: The publicly traded company Thumzup has applied for $500 million in financing, planning to use these funds to purchase more Bitcoin. This news conveys to the market a positive outlook on the investment value of Bitcoin from enterprises and may also trigger market expectations for subsequent actions and follow-on investments.

Morning Analysis Step by Step

Reached the target point How many people should applaud? 👏

Yunfang, what do you think?

Morning Analysis on 5.7
Yesterday's trend was as expected, first a drop and then a rise. In the evening, it reached near the 930 line. After a mid to long-term stop, it reversed and rose to around the 968 line this morning, with a large 🫓3k drop interval. There is still some upward potential, and you can reduce your position and continue to hold. The second 🫓 follows the big coin. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall trend is a volatile upward movement. The MACD on the four-hour chart has turned positive, with the DIF line crossing the DEA. In the short term, it will continue to rise, with an RSI value of 62, close to overbought, but it hasn't reached extreme levels, so there is still upward potential. Another big V pattern. Given this point, the recent focus should be on low entries. In this situation, it's essential to maintain good defense and avoid holding against the trend.

Rebound around 955-960 for buying
Targeting around the 973-978 line.
Rebound around 1755-1785 for selling
Targeting around the 1845-1875 line.

The trend is unstoppable; those brothers who follow this post are likely already enlightened. #美国稳定币法案 #比特币战略储备 #加密市场回调 #btc #BTC走势分析

Evening Analysis As Scheduled Downward Testing the Prediction of Yunheng #比特币战略储备 #BTC #BTC走势分析收起 #ETH

Evening Analysis As Expected Downward Testing the Prediction of Yunheng. #加密市场回调 #比特币战略储备 #BTC #BTC走势分析 #ETH

In the field of financial trading, the vast majority of losses stem from impulsive decisions leading to blind trading. Beginners are often easily attracted by price fluctuations, and once they incur losses, they rush to recover them, or during periods of significant volatility, they worry about missing opportunities and hastily enter the market. Despite understanding the principles, it is difficult to restrain such impulses in actual operations. So, how can one effectively avoid impulsive trading? Here are three practical methods to share; it's recommended to bookmark and practice repeatedly.

First, before each trade, set clear trading trigger conditions for yourself to make the trading decision process more rational and rigorous. Specifically, consider the following three dimensions:

1. Clarify trading logic: Carefully examine the basis for this trade. Is it based on technical analysis, fundamental information, or does it align with your specific trading strategy? Only a clear trading logic can support subsequent operations.

2. Determine stop-loss levels: Plan stop-loss positions in advance; this is not only key to controlling risk but also an important line of defense for protecting capital. Setting stop-loss points needs to consider market volatility and personal risk tolerance.

3. Assess the risk-reward ratio: Analyze carefully whether the potential profit space exceeds the possible loss space. An ideal trade should have a reasonable risk-reward ratio, ensuring the pursuit of greater profits while sustaining smaller losses.

In simple terms, every trade should strictly follow one's trading strategy and maintain sufficient risk awareness. Since all trades are pursued on the basis of bearing risk, only when the risk-reward ratio is reasonable does the trade become worthy of entry. By considering these three steps, many unnecessary trades can be effectively filtered out.

Additionally, setting trading limits can improve the trading system and cultivate self-discipline habits. For example, stipulate that if there are three consecutive losses in one day, trading must be stopped to avoid falling into a vicious cycle due to emotional fluctuations; or limit the number of trades per day, and once the limit is reached, no further operations will be conducted regardless of market conditions, reducing meaningless frequent trading. Lowering trading frequency helps cultivate patience and learn to wait for suitable trading opportunities. After all, true trading experts often know how to wait for the right moment rather than blindly chasing every market wave.

5.6 Midday Analysis
The morning session fell and then rose as expected, remaining in a sideways consolidation phase with little volatility. In the morning, it declined from the 951 level to the 941 level. The orange short position has already been established, and there is significant resistance above, leading to insufficient upward momentum. It is still safer to maintain a high position. The belief that it will inevitably fall after a long period should be adhered to; please adjust flexibly based on market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall situation is still one of fluctuation. Although the Bollinger Bands have a slight upward tilt, the overall momentum is weak. The MACD and KDJ indicators have not yet shown a clear direction, and I personally feel that there is downward risk for various indicators in the short term. Given this, the recent focus has been on maintaining a high position. In this situation, it is essential to have good defense and not to resist positions. Keep the morning analysis in mind.

For a rebound near 955-950, take a position.
The target is around the 940-935 level.
For a rebound near 1875-1845, take a position.
The target is around the 1790-1760 level.

The morning fell as expected and then rebounded, first falling and then rising.

The market feeling is still so precise #加密市场回调 #非农就业数据来袭 #BTC #BTC走势分析 #ETH

In the ever-changing cryptocurrency market, after years of ups and downs, I have ultimately found: the simplest approach, seemingly clumsy strategies, withstand the test of the market the most. The "monthly + daily" dual-track trading system, honed through countless practical experiences, has allowed me to break free from the predicament of chasing highs and cutting losses, gradually achieving steady returns. Next, I will fully dismantle this effective trading methodology.

1. Capture the Hot Trend Indicators: Focus on the top-performing cryptocurrencies on the rise list over the past two weeks. These assets favored by market funds often contain potential opportunities, and they should be included in the watchlist for continuous observation.

2. Monthly Trend Determines the Market: Use the MACD indicator at the monthly level to assess the market trend, only selecting cryptocurrencies that have formed a golden cross and are in an upward channel, ensuring that the investment targets possess medium to long-term upward momentum.

3. Daily Buy Point Precision: Switch to the daily level and closely monitor the 60-day moving average as a key support level. When the price pulls back near this moving average and a clear volume candle appears, it is an excellent entry opportunity.

4. Dynamic Position Management: Treat the 60-day moving average as the lifeline of your position; hold firmly if the price stays above it, and immediately cut losses if it falls below. Adopt a tiered profit-taking strategy: reduce 1/3 of the position when the gain reaches 30%, and reduce another 1/3 when the gain exceeds 50%. If the price falls below the key moving average on the day of purchase, decisive liquidation is necessary to avoid further losses.

Three Core Trading Principles

• Risk Control First: Always prioritize the safety of the principal; it is better to miss opportunities than to take reckless actions. Once the stop-loss line is reached, decisively exit to eliminate any lucky mindset.
• Flexible Response: After exiting, continue to monitor the target's trend; if signals that meet entry conditions appear again, re-enter to seize new opportunities.
• Discipline Above All: Establish a clear operational plan before each trade, specifying entry, profit-taking, and stop-loss points, and strictly execute according to the plan to eliminate emotional trading.

The core logic of this strategy lies in: determining the trend direction through large cycles and accurately grasping entry timing through small cycles. Although it cannot guarantee profitability in every trade, as long as trading discipline is strictly followed, it can effectively filter out ineffective fluctuations in the market and significantly enhance investment certainty. In the uncertain cryptocurrency market, only by adhering to principles and strict risk control can one achieve stability and long-term success.

Morning Analysis on May 6
How was everyone's May Day holiday? The holiday is over, and it’s time to return to work. After spending a few days resting with family, my personal trades have all been closed with profit. The market has dropped from around 960 during the May Day holiday to around 930. Previously, I mentioned looking at 920 for mid to long-term trades. Given the current situation, I personally feel that the recent decline to around 930 can be a point to take profit. On the contrary, I am lightly holding positions for a rebound. Without major news, it’s currently difficult to break below the support level. Accompanying this is the potential for interest rate cuts, making this wave likely to drop first and then rise. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, it is still a wide range of fluctuations, recently oscillating at high levels, forming multiple long upper and lower shadows, indicating significant divergence. After a series of bearish candles on the daily chart, there was a rebound, but it failed to break through the previous high, indicating that there is still pressure above. The 4-hour MACD is in the negative zone, and the fast and slow lines are diverging downward, indicating the possibility of continued adjustment in the short term. Given this, recent highs and lows are the main focus.

For rebounds around 955-950, take positions.
The target is around 940-935.
For rebounds around 1875-1845, take positions.
The target is around 1790-1760.

5.2 Morning Analysis
Yesterday, it was reminded to rise first and then fall back, resulting in a big jump 🫓 that soared to the vicinity of 974. We exited at 962 with a small loss. At this point, I emphasize the importance of defense again; those who didn't participate are either trapped or suffering losses. Now, if we stabilize above the 960 range, the situation will change. Pay attention to 975 above and 960 below; please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall situation is still one of high-level fluctuations. The hourly MACD is above the zero line, but the red bars are shortening, indicating a temporary pause in upward momentum. If the DIF line turns downward, it may trigger a short-term pullback, with the first key support to watch being EMA7.
The RSI14 value hovers around 60, not reaching the overbought zone. If it stabilizes at the midline (50), it retains upward potential; conversely, if it breaks below, it may deepen the adjustment. EMA7/30/120 still shows a bullish arrangement, with prices stabilized above short-term moving averages. However, if it loses EMA7, it may further test the strength of EMA30 support. Overall, it is still primarily a rise followed by a fall with a focus on high-level fluctuations.

For the rebound near 975-970, look for fluctuations.
Target around 960-950.
For the rebound near 1875-1860, look for fluctuations.
Target around 1815—1800.

5.1 Afternoon Analysis
In the morning, we mentioned a rise followed by a fall. The large index rose from around 940 to around 950. Once again, we accurately predicted that we expect it to fluctuate around 950 in the afternoon after a sharp rebound following the week's decline. There are clear support and resistance levels. Pay attention to 955 and 960 above, and 935 and 930 below. When trading within this range, make sure to defend well and adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, it is still a high-level fluctuation. The RSI value is hovering around 50/60, indicating no extreme sentiment. The MA7 and EMA30 moving averages overlap and are above the EMA120, suggesting a short-term bias towards upward movement. It is expected that there may continue to be a rebound near the 955 level in the short term, while also being cautious of a pullback. Overall, we expect a rise followed by a fall, focusing on higher peaks.

Rebound near 960-955 to trade for a peak
Target around 945-436.
Rebound near 1850-1830 to trade for a peak
Target around 1780-1740.

5.1 Festival Analysis
Happy May Day to everyone! Are you satisfied with yesterday's gift? Looking back at our previous predictions, when the big market was near the 930 line, we anticipated a brief pullback before testing the liquidity around the 955 line and then declining. The actual market validated this logic: after a brief dip, it quickly rebounded near the 955 line, and then significantly fell back to the 920 line. Given that the current market trend remains downward, we maintain a bearish outlook; 'long-term stagnation must lead to a drop' is a truth, so be sure to maintain good defense and adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall situation is still a high-level fluctuation, forming several long upper and lower shadows, with no clear direction overall. The MACD is in the negative zone but shows signs of convergence, indicating that bearish strength is weakening, and a rebound may be on the horizon in the short term. Therefore, the overall strategy is to look for an initial rise followed by a fall, maintaining a bearish outlook while ensuring good defense.

For a rebound around 960-950, take a bearish position. The target is around the 940-436 line.
For a rebound around 1850-1830, take a bearish position. The target is around the 1780-1740 line.