交易员密虎

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision tonight, with only a 1% chance of a rate cut in March.

According to ChainCatcher, based on CME's "FedWatch" data, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision tonight (March 20, 2 AM Beijing time). The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March is only 1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 99%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by May is 0.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 18.6%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 81.2%.

On March 19, Wednesday, the Bank of Japan unanimously approved the interest rate decision, deciding to maintain the interest rate at 0.5%, in line with expectations.

The recent performance of $BTC has been fluctuating within a range, and it previously indicated a wide-ranging volatility. The movements have been small these past few days as everyone awaits whether Japan will raise interest rates and tonight's U.S. FOMC interest rate decision.

The market predicts there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this time, which is the overall market expectation, indicating a bearish sentiment. However, in the cryptocurrency market, bearish news often translates to bullish outcomes. Therefore, the volatility tonight should not be small.

If it trends downwards, one can enter a long position after a false breakout, managing the position carefully and holding patiently.

After trading for so long, my biggest takeaway is: do not let emotions take over, just execute the trading strategy; losses are often caused by emotions.

You can set a limit order for $BTC at 80555, with a stop loss if it breaks below 79000, and consider entering again at lower levels. Specifics will depend on market movements, and further updates will be provided.

This hyperLiquid giant whale has taken action again, placing a short order of 65 million at 83667, indicating a desire to short further.

Currently, he holds a short position of 430 million at 83916, with a liquidation price at 86089. If he adds to his position at 83667, his liquidation will decrease to 85000.
#内幕哥

Tonight at 8:30, US retail data is released📊
Market sentiment is high, expectations are strong.
The key is not how good the data is, but whether it can beat expectations!
Above expectations = bullish | Below expectations = bearish
Consumer confidence = recession expectation barometer

BTC, US stocks, and gold may have a clear short-term direction⚡️
Follow up on market reactions and manage risk well.

Note that even if it is below expectations, as long as it is significantly better than last month, the market reaction may not be too pessimistic.
The focus is on: month-on-month trend + the extent of deviation from expectations.

$BTC Of course, my thought is that it hasn't dropped to the right level yet, and it's also possible that many KOLs are preparing to place orders at the 75000 line, but they just don't want you to get filled 😂😂

Subsequently, I will still maintain a high short position, waiting for clear signals. Of course, I also don't want to miss out, so I'll start with a small position.
Am I being too greedy?? Is there anyone else like me?
#加密市场回调 $BTC

$BTC
At the end of last month, my assessment showed that compared to the bull market of 2021, it has dropped by 30%. This round of the bull market can be entered around 78000. Although it is still falling early today, according to the plan, I will first enter a small position; this price definitely belongs to the bottom.

My viewpoint has always been: you can’t buy at the lowest price, and you can’t sell at the highest price. Trade within your own understanding.

If it drops, then move to protect your capital, and re-enter at 75555 and 71000.

$BNB is indeed the currency I have been recommending. Regardless of how the upcoming cryptocurrency summit goes, there must be a platform to support it. In the secondary market, just look at the recent trends of the coins to understand; it's really a double kill for both bulls and bears.

Still hold that view, buy freely below 500, enter the main position below 600.

What are the reasons for the recent decline in Bitcoin? Where can it stop falling? I've been discussing these two questions with friends recently.

Why the waterfall decline? The most direct reason is that it has risen too much. After Trump won the election, institutions kept pushing the market up based on market sentiment, causing many people to doubt life. Normally, this bull market should be around 80,000 now; you can calculate how much it has overshot. What rises for too long must eventually fall, and what falls for too long must eventually rise; there must be a correction to fill the gap. This time, the high point oscillated for a full two months, just to let the market believe that the bull was still on.

However, since the establishment of the new government, there has been no action for a long time; instead, a series of measures have left the market in constant fear, causing U.S. stocks to continue to decline. Additionally, the theft of cryptocurrencies in the crypto space and large sell-offs by institutions have created a situation of mutual destruction. This decline was inevitable; at the high point, you should have noticed that liquidity was severely inadequate. Prices too high fail to attract new participants; after all, institutions cannot keep pushing it up forever?

In summary: a decline is necessary from both a technical and market perspective.
So where will it fall to?
Looking at the bull market in 2021, it fell by 30%. This round of decline is currently about 27%, still short of the 30% from 2021. I saw someone in the square shouting short since November, calling for a short the entire bull market, and when it finally fell, they claimed how amazing they were, always making profits! I still want to maintain some dignity and wouldn't dare to do that. If you're wrong, you're wrong.

In this round of decline, I previously mentioned that entering at 78,000 would be good, and adding to the position at 71,000 is within my understanding; holding at this price will definitely not lead to losses, and will yield at least 30% profit. I expect a new wave of daily-level increases to start on March 6.
Still the same viewpoint: you must invest in resilient altcoins!

$BTC has experienced continuous outflows for a week. The current decline shows clear support, and the rebound strength is good. The view remains unchanged; place a short order around 89500 to bet on lower points.
$SOL will be unlocked on Saturday, so pay close attention. Continue to hold the existing positions.

I reminded you a few days ago when it was falling. $NEIRO is very resistant to falling. The first target of 0.0004 has been achieved. Take profit of 30%, and keep the rest.

$BTC $ETH has almost fallen now. There will be a rebound. The specific rebound strength depends on whether it can stand firm at 85000. If it stands firm at 85000, you can place a short order near 89500 and continue to bet on the lower low.
Don't be afraid if it continues to fall, enter the warehouse boldly!

Is Bitcoin $BTC entering a bull market or a bear market?
The current decline is just for better gains later, there is still a gap of 75000 below that has not been filled, and there is still a gap of 93000 above that has not been filled. Which one will come first?

2.26 Market Analysis - Trader Mi Hu
$BTC reminded at 86000 when the price was 89000 yesterday to mindlessly add positions, don’t be afraid. After the US stock market opened yesterday, it had already dropped to 86000, successfully placing an order! I wonder if everyone in the square strictly executed this.
Yesterday I reminded that there were resistance levels around 91500-92000, but the rebound still looks weak. Today, let’s see if it can stabilize at 87000; if it can't, close the position and place an order around 85000. The next levels are 78000 and 70000. Because there will be a certain selling pressure due to the unlocking of Sol on Saturday, and various news impacts will continue until March 7, positions need to be managed well. If entering spot, just add positions one by one.

Intraday, still looking at 92000. If it can continue to oscillate upward, it means that the bullish strength is gradually increasing; otherwise, it will still be a bearish structure.

Don’t enter below the level.
$BTC place a short order around 92000, stop loss at 93000; place a long order around 85000, if it falls below 85000, continue to add positions, and when it rebounds to 85000, close part of the position.

For spot, enter at 85000, 78000, 70000 in a ratio of 2:3:5, and then lie flat.
$BNB 600 just enter below this, close your eyes and go all in below 500!
#比特币价格走势分析

A brief overview of the U.S. stock market before the opening:
Bitcoin has dropped from $BTC to 86600 in just one day, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market, with no rebound exceeding 5000 points for two consecutive days. Currently, the daily chart has entered the oversold zone, and there is a technical demand for a rebound in the short term, but the overall bearish pattern has not yet been reversed.

The current resistance level is between 91550-92300. If the price rebounds to this area and cannot effectively break through, bearish forces may once again dominate the market. Tomorrow's Nvidia earnings report will be quite important, and I boldly predict that Nvidia's earnings will fall short of market expectations, with a significant likelihood of negative impact. For those who entered long positions at the bottom, pay close attention to the resistance level and consider reducing at least half of the position near that level. A breakthrough and stabilization above this point would confirm a shift to bullish sentiment, allowing for further long positions.

The support level at 85000 is quite strong; if it breaks downward, then consider the 81000-85000 range, which would create a vacuum zone. Place long orders near 81000 and watch for a rebound. Some altcoins I entered today performed well, although it's a pity that $BNB hit my breakeven stop before going back up.

In a bearish trend, you can try placing short orders at resistance levels, with a stop loss between 1-2%.

$NEIRO reminded in the afternoon, resilient, the first target to look at is around 0.004 $NEIRO also pay attention to the risk of US stock market opening

Let me briefly talk about $BNB . As long as you see BNB below 600, you can enter the 3-layer warehouse first. If you see BNB below 500, you can go all-in.
From the historical trend, BNB fixed investment is the most cost-effective, which is the importance of the platform. Of course, I am not praising Binance, but among the many platform coins, BNB should be the most worthwhile investment for me, and it will not trap people.
Of course, if you make a profit, setting up a moving capital protection loss in time can relieve you a lot of pain.
Now you can see that the big cake $BTC continues to fall, but some altcoins are no longer following. As for whether the big cake can be bottomed out now, there is a question mark. But for those relatively hard altcoins, don't consider going in directly.
#加密市场回调 #山寨币热点

$BNB principal guaranteed, this drop is indeed a bit unexpected, and there is still no sign of recovery, the rebound momentum is insufficient, but some coins have started to stabilize, waiting for Bitcoin to rebound after 86000

Let's see if we can buy the bottom in this round of decline. I haven't been trapped in the coin $BNB , and even if I am trapped, I can get out of it quickly. I have observed that the coin $NEIRO is relatively resistant to decline in this round of decline, so I will hold it first.

The market exploded 1.25 billion orders in one day, which is almost the same as the explosion volume on February 3. On February 3, the explosion of long orders was 1.249 billion, and the long army was basically almost exploded.
Of course, there is more than one reason for the acute decline this time, including the liquidity of the SOL ecosystem, hackers, the decline of US stocks, the decline of technical indicators, the overall decline of the market, etc.
The rapid decline just now was due to Japan's interest rate hike expectations and the weakening of the Nasdaq before the market.
According to the date, Trump will announce the tariff policy on Mexico and Canada today. If it is still bearish, long orders must set a break-even loss, then the opportunity to enter the market!
Still the same point of view, when 86,000 is reached, it is a brainless increase in positions, control the position, and wait for the rise
#加密市场回调 #bybit被盗

Bitcoin spot has been flowing out for 10 days. Today's fear value has reached 25, which is very similar to the wave at the end of October. Don't chase the short position now, and you must start to gradually build long positions. Although this week is not peaceful, remember: the bigger the wind and waves, the more expensive the fish!

$BTC You can start building positions around 90000-91000. The new low has been broken, and it is only a matter of time before it rises. 86000 is the limit position. Don't be afraid when it reaches it, just add positions boldly.
$ETH 2400 can also add positions. ETH's meme coin has begun to not fall much. Choosing a strong position to enter the first position is to pick up money.

Stablecoins can also be considered for spot entry
#加密市场回调 #Strategy增持比特币