趋势老六

Buy ribs go #我的交易风格 #GENIUS稳定币法案

A short-term support for the pancake is around 104500. If it stabilizes upwards around 105800, the bullish trend will become clear #我的交易风格 #GENIUS稳定币法案

The Dilemma of Fiat Currency and the Rise of Gold and Bitcoin

As global economic uncertainty intensifies, the reliability of fiat currency (government-issued credit money) is being questioned. Since the United States abandoned the gold standard in 1971, fiat currency has become the dominant currency in the global economy. However, unrestrained money printing by central banks has led to an increased risk of currency devaluation, prompting investors to turn to alternative assets such as gold and Bitcoin.

Gold, due to its scarcity, historical recognition, and anti-inflationary properties, has re-emerged as a safe haven for central banks and investors. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2020, global central bank gold reserves have increased significantly.

At the same time, Bitcoin has also emerged as "digital gold." Despite its smaller market size, its decentralized nature and fixed supply (21 million coins) have attracted significant capital. After the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, its inflow of funds even surpassed that of gold ETFs, demonstrating investors' recognition of its potential.

Traditional investment portfolios rely on stocks and bonds, but these assets are still denominated in fiat currency and cannot avoid the risk of fiat currency devaluation. Today, more and more people are realizing that gold and Bitcoin can serve as hedging tools to reduce reliance on the fiat currency system.

Bitcoin has not yet become a mainstream reserve asset, but its demand continues to grow. In the future, as the market matures, Bitcoin may gradually enter national reserves, becoming an important alternative alongside gold to counter the risks of fiat currency. #我的交易风格 #GENIUS稳定币法案

Yesterday at noon, Bitcoin fell continuously for 13 hours, and then Ethereum followed suit, dropping from around 2610 to around 2450, trapping many long positions and significantly boosting the confidence of the bears.
From the chart above, it can be seen that Bitcoin did not break below the previous low point; it just reduced the upper high point without breaking the lower one, which can be interpreted as a lack of volume, with the existing stock accumulating energy to break through 112000.
It is crucial to observe whether today's trend will break below 102800, and if a bearish candle closes below 102800, then the next step could also see around 98500.
Yesterday, the long position in Bitcoin that was set at 102800 stopped falling at 103300; it did not enter, and its low point is also rising. For example, the low point on June 5 was 10300, then on June 13 it was 102600, and then yesterday's low was 103300. Its low point is also continuously rising, showing that the high points are decreasing while the low points are increasing. It needs to accumulate energy to break through this area.
The upper resistance level is still a bit heavy; for it to rise, it needs to break and stabilize in the range of 105300 to 106200. This area can also be understood as a defensive position for short positions. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, short positions can consider exiting.
However, it dropped to 103300 in the early morning and then rebounded to 105000, proving that there are still buy orders supporting the market below, and confidence in the market has not been lost.

Now looking at Ethereum, its trend is similar to Bitcoin. As a leading altcoin, its high points are also decreasing, yet the low points have not broken, and the low points are rising. It needs to accumulate energy to break through the 2880 area, in order to surge towards around 3300. On the downside, in the short term, it may see around 2220 at most.
These past couple of days, possibly due to the impact of the war, the financial sector has seen some collapse; however, the cryptocurrency sector is doing relatively well overall and has not dropped much.
Brothers, have confidence in Ethereum. Looking at the monthly trend, the upper target is the 3300 to 3700 area. We need to get in early and not chase after the surge later.
It is currently accumulating energy and oscillating here, and the spot staking of Ethereum will not let it drop too much; it still needs to push upward.

Let's analyze the dog. The dog has currently had seven consecutive days of decline on the daily chart, but it is near the low point from May 8th. Can we enter now? Can we place a long order around the average price near 0.17230? The answer is yes, just set the stop loss at 0.16. The short-term resistance level above the dog is around 0.175. Once it breaks through this level, we can expect to see 0.19. If the market trends positively, reaching around 0.21 is also possible, which is a 20% increase. It is currently at the last support under the larger cycle.

BTC ETH and some altcoin highlights
BTC (Bitcoin)

Currently, Bitcoin is at a support level near 1066, and it may be worth considering opening long positions, with a stop loss set below 106. From a medium-term trend perspective, it remains a bullish trend.

This morning, it touched a low of 1059, triggering many stop losses, but 1064-1066 is a key support zone that can be defended.

The short-term target above looks at 1094, which is suitable for holding coins in anticipation of a rise.

ETH (Ethereum)

Yesterday, it rose to 2680, and this morning at 6:30, it suddenly plummeted to 2555, then rebounded to 2610.

Current trends suggest paying attention to Bitcoin's stabilization position to determine whether to enter long positions in Ethereum.

ETH has been consolidating for five weeks, ranging between 2350-2800, with a good monthly structure. The target above looks at 3300-3700, suitable for low-level long positions.

ORDI (Audi)

A few days ago, long positions were opened near 7.5, with a short-term target of 10.5. If the market is strong, it may hit 12.5 or even 21.

Currently, it can still be seen as bullish, but attention to risk is necessary, and a stop loss should be set.

YGG (Gaming Sector)

YGG is currently in a downward channel, but can be gradually entered near the spot price of 0.16.

Short-term target can be set at 0.215 for profit-taking, with an increase of about 30%, and a stop loss at 0.15.

If the market explodes, the target above looks at 0.33, and in a strong market, it may reach 0.68, but be cautious of quick pullbacks and take profits when available.
#美联储FOMC会议 #Solana现货ETF竞赛 #币安HODLer空投SPK

In the past couple of days, there haven't been any updates. As we can see, Bitcoin has been consolidating between 104350 and 106000 on Saturday and Sunday. Currently, it has shown an upward trend this morning and has stabilized in the short-term range of 105500-105600. It is still in a bullish consolidation. As long as it breaks through around 1062 and stabilizes, we could see 110000 above (looking at the short trend this way).

However, there isn't much large capital pushing it up right now, but once the big funds enter the market, we won't be able to take long positions at such low levels.

Currently, from the market perspective, if Bitcoin breaks and stabilizes above 1062, there isn't much resistance above. Brothers, don't be afraid; we are currently positioning ourselves for a long-term long position, and the profits could be considerable.

Ethereum has also reached a weekly resistance support level. Currently, it is believed that Ethereum will be the first to break through 2588 and stabilize, then push towards higher levels. Well, we can take a light long position today between 2555 and 2560, using 3% to 5% of our total capital.

Above, we can see a relatively large space because it has already closed the monthly line and has come up.

With a proportion of 3% to 5%, we can see a profit-taking space of 800 to 1300 points (3300-3700).
The profit space is still quite large, with the stop-loss position set below 2450.
If Bitcoin cannot stabilize in the range of 105800 to 106200, and if it falls below around 104300 with a solid bearish candle closing below, we can consider stopping losses and exiting, and then observe again.

ETH plunges over 10%, BTC drops below $104,000, the time to buy the dip has arrived

Recently, BTC and ETH experienced a sharp downturn, with BTC briefly falling below the $104,000 mark and ETH's daily drop exceeding 10%, attracting significant attention. After this decline, where will the market head next?
This pullback is interpreted by the market as a dual result of profit-taking and leverage liquidation.

I believe that if BTC can hold the support level of $105,800, it may once again challenge the $110,000 high in the short term.

Meanwhile, the deep washout of ETH is nearing its end, and seasoned investors have begun to position themselves to build momentum for the second half of the year.

1. Analyzing the Reasons for the Market Crash
Leverage squeeze triggers a chain reaction
Derivatives data shows that a large number of long leverage positions accumulated around $105,000 for BTC, while the staking lending rate for ETH has risen concurrently. As prices fell, over $580 million in long contracts were forcibly liquidated, intensifying short-term selling pressure.

Macroeconomic sentiment disturbances
The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting released “hawkish” signals, causing the dollar index to rebound and suppress risk assets, with some funds withdrawing from the crypto market in search of safe havens.

Demand for technical adjustments
BTC had previously accumulated a rise of over 25% in the last two months, and ETH failed to effectively break through the $3,000 resistance level, necessitating a market correction to repair overbought indicators.

2. Key Support Levels and Future Market Outlook

BTC: $105,800 is the dividing line between bulls and bears
If today's close can hold above $105,800, the short-term upward trend will continue, and the target of $110,000 may be achieved within 48 hours.

If it falls below $104,350, it may test $102,000 (20-day moving average), but long-term holders have not shown signs of weakening, and a significant drop is viewed as a “buying opportunity.”

ETH: Washout nearing its end, institutions quietly accumulating
The current price has retested the key support area of $2,400, and on-chain data shows that whale addresses have increased their holdings by over 400,000 ETH in the past 24 hours.

In the derivatives market, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts has turned negative, and excessive concentration of shorts may trigger a short squeeze. From the end of June to July, the outlook is bullish, targeting $3,300-$3,700, with a potential to break new highs.

How to seize this opportunity?

Every dip in the crypto market is for jumping higher. When retail investors panic due to the steep decline, seasoned investors are quietly converting USDT into chips. History does not simply repeat itself, but it always carries the same rhyme — this July, ETH may prove this point once again.

Thinking entirely bearishly is a sign of a problem. Clearly, ETH looks set to surge to 3300-3700 from the monthly chart, a bunch of retail investors #卡尔达诺稳定币提案 #以色列伊朗冲突

Don't ask me how I see it. I see the daily line closing with a bullish candle, pushing up to 109000. New high on Monday #卡尔达诺稳定币提案 #以色列伊朗冲突

I have already bottomed out, you all do as you wish. Long the contract by 2%, see you at the liquidation rooftop #以色列伊朗冲突 #加密市场回调

The drop in this big pancake is killing me #加密市场回调 #以色列伊朗冲突

I am still placing an order #币安HODLer空投HOME #美国加征关税 at 106380, come down to me

6.12BTC
Bitcoin surged early yesterday morning due to favorable CPI data. The increase wasn't significant, but Ethereum rallied strongly to around 2880. Currently, it has reached a defense zone for long positions at 1088 and 108. It also touched 108 this morning, which acts as a support level. So, it's oscillating between 108 and 1088 right now. It's advisable not to open a position at this level and wait for it to break out of this oscillation zone. The best entry point should be between 1075 and 1070 for a long position, or if it oscillates back to around 108 and shows signs of a rebound, a small position can also be taken.

ETH
Ethereum is oscillating between 2785 and 2750. It even dipped down to around 2740 this morning. The support level is near 2750; if this support is broken, we will look at 2680. A long position can be taken near 2750, but if that level is breached, it might be best to cut losses and then look for a larger position at 2680. #看懂K线 #美国加征关税

Recently, during the sideways fluctuations in the BTC market, a phenomenon known as "Major Player Inducement Order Tactics" has emerged.
Major funds frequently place short-lived huge orders at the level of hundreds of millions of dollars, meaning that after a large buy order appears on the order book, it is quickly canceled before the transaction is completed.

This operation is not a normal market behavior, and there are three underlying purposes:
Psychological Induction Battle: Major players create large orders to stimulate retail investors' buying enthusiasm, leading retail investors to mistakenly believe that the market is about to reverse, and they rush to buy in, while major players take the opportunity to sell at high prices.

Market Testing Technique: These short-lived huge orders are used to test market depth and reactions, observing whether the support on the order book will collapse and whether slippage exceeds expectations.

Behavioral Chain Deception: Major players manipulate market sentiment through the process of placing orders, canceling them, and executing transactions, using fake orders to guide retail investors, ultimately selling at even higher prices.

To avoid falling into these traps, investors can use four filters:
Transaction Rate: Pay attention to huge orders with a transaction rate exceeding 80%.

Time Window: Set a 5-minute observation window and ignore orders that exist for too short a time.

Amount Threshold: Only focus on large orders above 10 million dollars.

Behavior Verification: Confirm whether there is an immediate opposite action after an order is canceled.

#看懂K线 #加密圆桌讨论 #CPI数据来袭

BTC6.11 Highlights and Yesterday's Review
Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around 109,500. The short-term support is near 109,300. If the hourly line breaks the support, it is highly likely to reach around 108,500-108,600. If it goes further down, it could drop below 107,800. At present, it can make a short position for a thousand points and exit around 108,600. Do not add to the position; if it breaks above 110,000, directly set a stop-loss. This is against the trend, taking a pullback position, and the risk of adding to the position is too high.

In the range of 108,600-107,800, directly reverse to go long, if there is profit, for example, if it stabilizes at 1093, set a breakeven stop-loss and aim for above 110,000 to take a profit. Absolutely do not add to the short position, directly set a stop-loss.
ETH, from the current market view, is also likely to pull back down, currently at 2480, it could go down to around 2745 and during the day, it might see a maximum of 2660. If it goes lower, it will need news and funding support to crash. From a technical perspective, I can't see further in the short term. Still, it’s the same advice: pullback to go long, but ETH is too volatile, so do not trade with a heavy position.

Yesterday's Review
Yesterday, I still did not wait for the low around 107,800 and missed a profit of two thousand points. Also, ETH briefly broke 2850 but did not reach it. However, I called a short position at 2835, damn it, it still didn’t hit. Otherwise, I would have had profits to close this morning.

What’s wrong with me taking a bite from the ETH manipulators? It has already dropped from 2850 by 15 dollars to 2835, still a little short. Yesterday’s maximum increase AXL, I found it really a dog at the highest position 0.4799, and my short position was at 0.589, just a little off, and I feel like bleeding internally. Finally, I remind everyone not to add to positions against the trend; if you need to set a stop-loss, do so. #看懂K线 #加密圆桌讨论

Yesterday, Bitcoin surged to 110,000, squeezing many shorts. Will it continue to rise strongly today? In my opinion, today is suitable for a pullback to buy, with a position near the 108,500-107,500 range. The lower part will form a stage support, with a safe point to go long around 107,500 and look for 109,500. A stop loss around 1055 below is also acceptable. For now, we just need to wait. #看懂K线

As for ETH, the short-term trend doesn't look good, so it can only be traded in real-time. Currently, ETH has oscillated between 2400-2700 for more than four weeks. It seems that it is going to move upwards, but it is not suitable to enter the market right now. It will either break through the mountain pressure at 2800 or pull back to the support near 2200. In between, we can enter at a low position around 2400. Don't go long or buy spot if it hasn't stabilized at 2700. The upper trapped positions are still very serious. We just need to wait for it to stabilize at 2800, observe Bitcoin's sideways movement, and then buy the first position at a high level. Don't exceed thirty percent of the principal.

If it goes up, the target looks towards 3300 and then around 3700. Don't be bullish just because it has risen or bearish just because it has fallen. The short positions from a few days ago are still suffering serious losses, which is painful.

I didn't expect it to rise this high, directly pulling back to 110,000 in three days. I had mentioned earlier that it could be bought at 101,000-100,500, but I didn't speak out in the group. Missing the opportunity led to being trapped; it's a painful lesson. Back to ETH, it shows a bullish pattern.

Currently, Bitcoin has surged by 10,000 points in three days. Let's see where it will pull back to. I expect it to be between 108,500-107,500 for now. If it pulls back, we can buy ETH and go long, but the position shouldn't be large. If there's a significant drop, then that's not right. Reflecting on the pain for two days to change strategies. #纳斯达克加密ETF扩容

Pancake callback target 1091-1081, stabilize and find opportunities to go long, yesterday's short position was at 108350 with a loss of #看懂K线 #加密市场反弹

The large pancake has been fluctuating between 105700-105300 after the rise on Saturday. The next step is whether it can stabilize above 107000 and continue to push towards 110000, or break below the 105000-104500 long position defense area and continue to impact the 100000 area. Now let's see where to go long and where to go short.
If the large pancake breaks down the 105000-104500 long position defense area today and a bearish candle closes below 1044 on the four-hour level or above, pay attention to whether there will be a strong rebound. If it continues to move down, then the short positions can hold with the initial target looking at around 103300, and the next target would be around 101000.
Therefore, it is suggested that those who want to go long hold a little longer and can place orders in the 101500-101000 area with a stop loss at 99000. A stop loss of two thousand five hundred points to aim for an upward space is still feasible.
Now let's talk about Ethereum. Currently, the ETH position is below 2500, around 2480. This area has some support. Observe the trend of the large pancake. Will ETH break below the 2460 area to around 2430 when the large pancake is at 105-1045? If it stops falling, long positions can also be taken with a short-term target looking towards 2500, and a longer target at 2700, which still offers a profit of nearly two to three hundred points.
Review:
The short positions made last week currently have an average price of 105100. By increasing positions at the upper pressure level and reducing positions near the average price, it has pulled back up. There has still been no significant change, and the current position remains at 4% short, still relatively bearish. However, it still needs to be based on real-time market conditions. If the large pancake consolidates near 105000 without breaking down, consider reducing the position or closing it directly. If it breaks below this position, it can still be held.

BTC

6.6【Market Review】
After a decline in the past two days, the Bitcoin price rebounded from 100300 to around 105000 yesterday, remaining below the critical 100000 mark. Regret not having set up long positions in the 101000-100500 range, missing out on a profit of 4000 points (as I clearly favored this area on the evening of 6.5). Currently, the price is fluctuating in the 1052-1043 range, with key resistance at 1052 above.

6.7【Today's Strategy】
Bullish Defense: 104300-103000 serves as short-term support; if it breaks, it may drop to 103000;

Breakout Direction:
Above 1058: If it stabilizes, the next pressure point is 10700-10850, considering a swing short;
Stalled at 1052-1058: It may pull back to 103000, or even look down to the 100800-96000 range;

Operational Plan:
If it pulls back near 100800, consider going long, target 104500 (stop loss at 99000);
Currently, the average short position at 104350 (1037 opening + 105000 supplement) has been reduced to 2% of the position, with a floating loss of a few hundred points. If it stabilizes above 105200 today, exit; otherwise, hold with a light position.
【Summary】
Do not chase long positions intraday, focus on the 1058 watershed. Maintain flexible positions before the strong and weak boundary is clearly defined, and avoid excessive risk.
AI simplified perspective for reference #科技巨头入场稳定币 #非农就业数据来袭