TVBee

In 2013, 2017, and 2021, every bull market occurred when the annual growth rate of US M2 was declining.

 

At present, the annual growth rate of US M2 is still in an upward stage.

 

➤M2 is the real liquidity indicator

 

Interest rates, QT or QE are just the policy starting points of liquidity.

 

M2 reflects both monetary policy and social economy, and M2 is the real liquidity indicator.

 

In 2017, interest rates were raised, but M2 was growing. In addition to the time lag of monetary policy, the prosperity of the real economy has made the base currency circulate faster in the economy, which will also promote the growth of M2.

 

➤M2 entered the end only after it went from acceleration to deceleration

 

The increase in the annual growth rate of M2 means the accelerated growth of liquidity.

 

The decline in the annual growth rate of M2 means the decelerated growth of liquidity.

 

When the growth of M2 goes from acceleration to deceleration, it is the end of growth.

For the sake of rigor, I have to say that although the US M2 is not equal to global liquidity, it is representative and even dominant.

 

That is why I firmly say that the bull market has not come. In fact, we may still be at the stage before 312.

Bee Brother feels that the new coins in the past two years seem to have three characteristics:

First, some coins will pump after the first wave of airdrops at TGE.
Second, after the pump, they gradually decline. Even if there is a subsequent increase, it is rarely a new high.
Third, projects with widespread public participation tend to perform relatively better.

For example:

$Hype is one of the best-performing coins, rising to 30+, dropping to 10+, and now it has risen to 40+.

$kaito is also good; it dropped to 1.2 during the airdrop, then pumped to 2.9, fell to 0.6 at the end of April, and then pumped to 2.4.

$Parti dropped to 0.14 after the airdrop with the market, then pumped to a previous high above 0.4, and is currently around 0.25.

The common feature of these three projects is that they have relatively widespread public participation. Hype is mainly a perpetual futures DEX, Kaito is primarily infoFi, and Parti is a cross-chain meme coin/on-chain.

$huma dropped to 0.035 after the airdrop and has now recovered to above 0.05.

So Bee Brother feels that after the first wave of airdrops, it is possible to analyze and judge to find coins that will pump and acquire some. Bee Brother has acquired a little $SOON because this project has a relatively high voice and also a large trading volume. Then when it pumps, he will sell it off; no big picture.

Additionally, during the first wave of the pump, it feels especially necessary to be cautious when picking up coins.

Thinking about Trump continuing to raise tariffs,
Thinking about the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,
Even thinking about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates,
What I never expected was that the black swan was the two of them tearing each other apart……

However, in fact, such events do not shake the fundamentals of cryptocurrency:

First, it does not affect the market's faith in crypto.

Second, it does not affect the real economy of the U.S. stock market, at most it can only have a substantial impact on TSLA stock.

Third, it does not affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Even Musk's position may not necessarily influence Trump's policies.

Therefore, the negative impact of this "black swan" is limited,

But the market's fragility is evident. If this event occurs in 2024, it may have a weaker impact on the market, but it just so happens to occur in June 2025, with some people believing the bull market has already ended, which instead leads to the cryptocurrency market being even more "weakened" than in 2024.

However, Brother Bee wants to ask, the impact of ETFs is growing, will traditional on-chain indicators still be as effective as before? Do ETF investors trust the macro cycle more or the BTC halving cycle?

As for altcoins, the four-year cycle formed by BTC halving, what does it have to do with altcoins?

Frankly speaking, in the past bull markets, new retail investors were always called in to take over and were often left holding the bag.

Now, there might not be many new retail investors who can enter the market; this round might be about cutting the losses of the old retail investors.

Of course, the main focus is on cutting the losses of those 'experiential' old retail investors who jumped in early during the big bull markets. Some of them even completely deny the influence of macro factors and overly trust the four-year cycle.

On the other hand, the flexible and comprehensive analysis of old retail investors is a different matter; these individuals have better judgment.

Regardless, with fewer new retail investors and more old retail investors in the market, the latter becomes the main target for big players. Disrupting market rhythm and shattering retail investor psychology is highly probable. So simply having good judgment isn't enough; one also needs composure and endurance...

Changing habitual thinking and engaging in a battle of ideas with old retail investors may lead to the conclusion that most old retail investors are already in the market. The absence of a big bull market or a season of altcoins could mean that the real bull market or altcoin season might only occur once most old retail investors exit...

Considering the macro environment and U.S. policy trends, it is possible that the altcoin season won't come in 2025, but rather in the first half of 2026. DYOR

Why are we optimistic about the cross-chain track? Which cross-chain project do we have more confidence in?

➤ Why are we optimistic about the cross-chain track?

The logic is simple. There are over 100 Layer1 and Layer2 projects in the market, can you believe that? However, there may be fewer than 10 cross-chain interoperability projects connecting these ecosystems.

At least the commonly used cross-chain interoperability projects like ChainLink, LayerZero, Wormhole, Axelar, Debridge, Celer, etc., add up to less than 10.

In 2021, there were almost only Ethereum and BSC ecosystems that were relatively active. By 2025, there are more Layer1 projects like Solana, SUI, Sonic, and Bear Chain, as well as Layer2 projects like Base and Arbitrum.

The more intense the competition between ecosystems, the stronger the demand for cross-chain solutions.

Perhaps the cross-chain track may not be as crazy as MEME, but it is definitely a stable and growth-oriented track.

With the market recovery, various on-chain ecosystems will gradually begin to compete, and funds will soon start to flow back and forth among these cross-chain protocols...

➤ Which cross-chain project do we have more confidence in?

In fact, ChainLink, LayerZero, Wormhole, Axelar, Debridge, and Celer are all good projects. However, as investors, we need to consider which project has more investment space.

So, Brother Bee has compiled the FDV of these five projects: LayerZero, Wormhole, Axelar, Debridge, and Celer, along with the ratio of cross-chain transaction volume and transaction count, in order to find undervalued projects.

Transaction volume and transaction count can reflect the market scale of cross-chain products. FDV/cross-chain transaction volume is similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, as cross-chain transactions and the income of cross-chain protocols are positively correlated.

It is clear from the comparison that DeBridge ($DBR) is the most undervalued cross-chain project. Whether on a monthly, weekly, or daily basis, the ratio of $DBR's FDV to transaction volume and transaction count is the lowest.

Besides $DBR, LayerZero ($ZRO) also has relatively low ratios.

In fact, DeBridge's cross-chain scale is only slightly lower than Wormhole's. In February, DeBridge's cross-chain scale once surpassed Wormhole's. However, the number of exchanges where $DBR is listed is also the least, so the potential of $DBR may be the greatest.

Brother Bee thought of a slogan for the Binance Alpha airdrop:

"With 'An', one can have countless grand houses, providing shelter for all the cold scholars under heaven!"

Although it may seem a bit flattering, this event is indeed beneficial to the public.

A friend in Brother Bee's group used not 10,000 dollars in Binance, but with just over 500 dollars, trading 512*16 for about 10 minutes each day, incurring a loss of 2-3 dollars, and in 15 days, the total loss was less than 40 dollars.

Every day, 2+13+1=16 points, participating in 3 activities over 15 days, selling for 300 dollars, and earning a net profit of over 260 dollars in 15 days.

Du Fu visited Brother Bee in a dream at midnight, saying:

In the wind and rain, "An" is as stable as a mountain!

Binance Alpha Points

Earning points is a queue,
But spending points is a stack.

Understanding likes

Brothers, quantum entanglement

Cryptocurrency, to traditional financial platforms like ETFs,
Traditional financial assets, to on-chain RWAs.

Additionally, it was originally thought that macro policies would bring liquidity to the cryptocurrency market, but it turns out that macro liquidity hasn't arrived yet, and stablecoins have already expanded the market for the US dollar and US Treasuries. Isn't this a form of reverse empowerment?

Focus on the track of Web3 + Web2 integration, with an emphasis on the financial sector:

RWAs, $ONDO, $plume on Binance alpha... Don't forget about $link, which is also a data tool connecting traditional finance with blockchain.

Payfi, hold off on $HUMA for now, staking rewards will be distributed in June, and there may still be selling pressure; we need to wait and see on the candlestick charts.

We are not yet at the final sprint stage; in June, the Federal Reserve may release a dot plot, and it may not necessarily stop the tapering. In June, we should refocus on the macro aspects.

BSC Chain New Chain Game — AIVille — Virtual Agricultural Economic Game + AI

➤ Optimistic about AI + Chain Games

In the DApp Recommendation Square launched by Binance Wallet, chain game applications frequently appear on the list, with games like Pixels, Tiny World, etc., being recommended. The popularity of GameFi is returning.

On the other hand, the current AI + web3 products are actually very similar in positioning, basically helping with analysis and trading. Compared to AI trading products, AI + Game is more promising, as AI can have more room for development and imagination in games.

➤ AIVille Virtual Agricultural Economic Game + AI

Recently, I noticed an AI + game — #AIVille, which is not a traditional P2E gold mining game, but rather builds a "AI Character-Driven Virtual Town."

This system is called the MCP (Multi-Character Parallel) model, which is a relatively rare framework in chain games of "multiple AIs coexisting + influencing each other." AI is not a traditional NPC tool in games, but a character led by an AI model, a resident of the virtual community, with emotions, positions, and the ability to influence the state of the economic system.

Traditional games may be P2E or P2P, but Brother Bee summarizes this type of game as P2A, Player to AI.

The gameplay is — AI behavior × Agricultural economy

Players earn $Dinar through planting and interacting with AI, which can be exchanged for governance token $AGT:

Farm labor/task interaction → Earn $Dinar → Dinar exchange for AGT → Reinvest in governance/ecological construction

➤ AIVille Ecological Status

In terms of ecological influence, Binance’s Twitter account clearly retweeted its launch information, and it currently ranks third in the Binance Wallet DApp Square.

Recently, the trending infoFi platform cookie saw AIVille ranked first for a period of time on the AI mental comparison leaderboard, and Brother Bee noticed this game project there.

In terms of token economics, $AGT has already been listed on PancakeSwap, with a liquidity of about $300,000. The trading volume in the last 24 hours is $2.51 million. There are 13,642 on-chain wallet addresses. FDV is $12.48 million.

In terms of product ecosystem, the game interface is very cute, and the official Twitter reported that there are over 300,000 users joining.

$AGT is currently not listed on any CEX, surely aiming to be listed on Binance alpha, and so far no game has emerged on the BSC chain, especially in the AI + Game track.

521 received pizza from Binance, but this is not as great as the gifts sent by Binance Alpha. Now, it's basically possible to receive 2-3 airdrops every week.

On May 20-21, users reported that trades were being stuck. On May 22, the day of the Pizza Festival, Binance Alpha immediately modified the trading slippage settings, significantly lowering the default slippage for some BSC chain tokens.

Currently, the default slippage for B2\ZKJ\MYX\AIOT\SKYAI\XTER is 0.15%, and there is no need to manually set the slippage, allowing for quick and worry-free trading volume.

Binance's success to this day is definitely not a coincidence; what they emphasize is: caring for users, listening to advice, and being practical.

Satoshi Nakamoto must be crying!

When Satoshi Nakamoto developed BTC, it was to create a peer-to-peer cash network for cross-border payments, thereby hedging against the centralized risks of the dollar.

Who would have thought that years later, smart contract public chains and stablecoins would emerge, further aiding the expansion of the dollar.

Trump actually did want to impose tariffs; he was thinking about bringing back manufacturing.

However, after imposing tariffs, the opposing countries also retaliated with their own tariffs. This obviously reduces the U.S. trade deficit and decreases the dollar's international outflow. As a result, it has shifted to using on-chain stablecoins for export...

Today is still Pizza Day... Satoshi Nakamoto is crying in heaven!