黑羊数字人生

1. Sony's Layer2 network Soneium is expected to launch a test network on August 28;
2. DWF Labs Co-founder: has purchased about $500,000 in TON and will hold it until Pavel Durov is released;
3. Memeland: has used treasury funds to buy $1 million in TON and will hold it until Durov is released;
4. WSJ: Russian officials believe that Pavel Durov's arrest is an indirect hostile act against the country;
5. ZKsync: Aave v3 deployment is nearing completion, and technical issues found in the final test have been resolved;
6. Jupiter Co-founder released a spot product stability update and called for community feedback;
7. Telegram issued a statement on the arrest of Pavel Durov: The platform complies with EU law and the team is waiting for the matter to be resolved quickly;
8. Paradigm Co-founder: The best time to integrate Telegram groups into the Farcaster ecosystem may have arrived;
9. Vitalik: Farcaster integrates Telegram The timing of the group is not yet ripe, and an end-to-end encrypted communication system must be established first;
10. Binance page shows that the TON Logo has been updated to Resistance Dog;
11. Snowden: France's arrest of Telegram CEO is a violation of basic human rights such as freedom of speech;
12. Michael Saylor: After buying Bitcoin, MicroStrategy's stock performance has exceeded other S&P 500 indexes;
13. Lens Protocol founder: The construction of social networks should focus on resilience.

BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to a healthy level, while the daily level is below the healthy level. The volume has increased and the trend remains good. You may consider continuing to follow up. The long cycle continues to be bullish. The upper resistance is 58300-58800 and the lower support is 60300-60800. If it pulls back to the support level today, you may follow up appropriately.

ETH 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to a healthy level, while the daily level is below the healthy level. The trend remains healthy and has not fallen below the key resistance level. The upper resistance is 2670-2720 and the lower support is 2520-2570. If it pulls back to the support level today, you may follow up appropriately.

Analysis of BTC and ETH market trends on August 20:
BTC: Today's focus is that the 1-hour and 4-hour charts have returned to a healthy level, but the daily line is still below the ideal state. The volume has increased. If the upper edge of the callback channel stabilizes, you can consider opening positions in batches. In the short term, the upper resistance is between $61,300 and $61,800, and the lower support is between $59,300 and $59,800. If it pulls back to the support level today, you can follow up appropriately.

ETH: The 1-hour and 4-hour charts have also returned to a healthy level. Although the daily level is still below the ideal state, the overall trend is still healthy and has not fallen below the key resistance level. Today's upper resistance is between $2,720 and $2,770, and the lower support is between $2,570 and $2,620. If it pulls back to the support level, you can follow up appropriately.

A new week has begun! Last week, BTC and ETH showed a sideways trend on the daily chart, and there was a wide range of fluctuations at a small level. If the daily line can close in the rising range, it may usher in a reversal. Unfortunately, the trend last night did not rebound as expected. It is expected that the market may see a new trend this week, and we need to be patient and wait for further development.
It is worth noting that there will be important speeches or data releases on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week, which may cause market fluctuations. Please pay attention to market trends!
Key positions of the big cake weekly line:
Support levels: 57200, 56000, 53350
Pressure levels: 60300, 61850, 63150
Key positions of the Ethereum weekly line:
Support levels: 2555, 2330, 2115
Pressure levels: 2700, 2788, 2980

There are various positive factors in the current market, but the market has not responded, it is calm, and even fell. Behind this abnormality, the essence will be revealed more and more.

With the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, this kind of good news will gradually reflect the good news on the capital side. For the financial market, the interest rate cut means long-term benefits. Now is the best time to test investors' patience, and the trend will not be transferred by personal will.

The bull market is still there, just wait for the flowers to bloom, and now is the time to overcome fear and dare to enter the market. Don't have the leek thinking, only know that when the market rises, you will be late to chase the rise. Ambush and patient waiting are compulsory courses on our investment road, and it is worth our rest of our lives to improve, practice and improve.

I hope we can all understand the principle of the wooden barrel. How much water can be contained in a bucket does not depend on the longest piece of wood, but the shortest piece. Facing our own problems, discovering where to improve in time is the core of our ability to survive and live well in the currency circle for a long time.

Briefly, let me give you a personal analysis of the interest rate cut in September:

Many retail investors are eager to buy the bottom of the cryptocurrency market because of the interest rate cut in September?

Don't worry, the truth may not be as beautiful as you think! The main players will not easily let you who enter the market this month make a lot of money.

You all know that interest rate cuts are good news. Don't the dealers and institutions know it?

Will the institutions and dealers miss this opportunity? Don't be stupid to be a receiver!

Some people outside have long talked about the bull market in September, the interest rate cut of 25 basis points, 50 basis points, etc. What's the use? The one who gets hurt is still the leeks. The wool comes from the sheep. You must have your own thinking and don't be led by the nose. It's your own fault, not those who talk big.

The sudden plunge on August 5 did catch many retail investors off guard, but do you think that's enough? For those "stubborn" retail investors who hold their ground and remain unmoved, the market still has greater tests waiting.

After all, in this game where only a few people make profits, only after layers of screening and elimination of most participants, the real reversal moment will come quietly. The strategies of the main players are often deeper and more complicated than you think. They are using time, the sharpest knife, to slowly flatten the impetuousness and bubbles in the market.

Therefore, in the face of interest rate cut expectations and market fluctuations, it is crucial to maintain rationality and patience, and position management allocation.

8 Signs of a Bull Market Coming
1. There are more and more short-sellers: Although there are many short-sellers in the market, the market has never been able to be suppressed, but has steadily risen.
2. Low-quality currencies have risen: Those currencies with poor quality have also begun to rise, and the rise even seems irregular.
3. Most people are in a state of cutting their profits: When you ask people around you whether they have become rich suddenly, they cut their profits and leave the market at a low point, still waiting to buy the bottom, while the price keeps rising.
4. More people are asking about buying coins: You will find that more and more people are asking you about what coins to buy, and even some people who have never invested in coins are ready to get involved.
5. Good news continues: Good news such as halving, interest rate cuts, and debt ceiling increases continue one after another, and there seems to be a steady stream of help.
6. The longer the sideways trading time, the greater the increase: The longer the market goes sideways, the greater the subsequent increase will be, and even the sum of all the sideways time will not be as much as the subsequent increase.
7. The market is crazy, but there are few investors: Although the market is crazy, there are not many people actually participating in it.
8. The feeling of missing out on huge profits: You will feel that you have missed huge profit opportunities every day.
These signs indicate that a bull market is coming, and investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics and be prepared.

Why is wave 3 a good buying point for cryptocurrency trading? After pondering for a long time, I finally understood the true meaning of this picture! All transactions originated from this. From big losses to counterattacks, I have learned many methods during this period, but I really feel that the wave theory is really in my heart. Today I will share with you my experience of wave theory tactics over the years. Although the method is simple, it is rich in connotation. Collect it.

If you want to understand the basic logic of band trading, you must first understand what wave structure is. Simply put, in an upward trend, the operating mode that drives the price of the currency to rise continuously is generally a five-wave push pattern, that is, the famous rising five waves; and in a downward trend, the operating mode that drives the price to fall continuously is a three-wave adjustment pattern, that is, the famous falling three waves.

From the perspective of wave theory, buying point 1 is when the trend just starts to reverse. At this stage, the market has just started and the safety factor is low; buying point 2 is when the market is in a shock adjustment, and the increase is limited; buying point 3 is the starting position of the main rising wave. Usually, the increase in this wave is at least 1.5 times that of wave 1. [At this stage], it is often easy to break out a big market. If we use the Chaos Theory to analyze, this is the resonance buying point of the large and small levels, which is highly reliable and easy to make big profits.

If you still think that the wave theory is obscure, then please remember its three laws and grasp the essence of the wave theory.

Law 1: The callback of wave 2 generally does not exceed the starting point of wave 1.

Law 2: In the basic driving mode 1, 3, and 5 waves, the increase of wave 3 will not be the shortest wave.

Law 3: In the complete five-wave push, the adjustment of wave 4 will not fall to the price range of wave 1.

This round of the cryptocurrency market is a very difficult bull market. The big bitcoin has reached a new high and fluctuated at a high level, while many altcoins have wiped out the gains and even broke the new low in the bear market. According to past experience, the big bitcoin has reached a new high, and the altcoins have started in turn. Hot sectors have begun to rotate. The mainstream has increased by at least 10 times, and various other small-cap altcoins have increased by dozens or hundreds of times. As long as they are not greedy, many people will withdraw from the circle with wealth freedom. However, you will never think that in this round, they have played it well, listing coins with low circulation, unlocking coins with high circulation, and making profits through unlocking, so there is no need to continue to pull the market. Although it is better to speculate on new coins than old ones, the old coins are at least safe and a more reasonable choice for stable investors. In the past, even garbage like BSV had a 5-fold increase. In this round of bull market, the so-called DeFi blue chips, AAVE, and SNX have increased by less than 3 times, and the decentralized contract leader has increased by less than 5 times and has even broken a new low. I believe that people who hold these coins must be very hard to bear. Not to mention speculating on new rather than old, how long has sln, a new coin from OKX, been online? It was directly removed from the shelves?

Binance also has a bunch of broken coins, tnsr, portal, which one is not a new low? Ethereum Layer 2 is at least the future development direction of the currency circle, but the total market value of 10 billion US dollars or even higher as soon as it goes online has completely wiped out the possible future growth space. It is okay to do short-term trading, but for small funds, from the perspective of value investment, it is not a very reasonable target, because you will not get any return if you hold it.

However, the fact is that how to optimize investment strategies in this cruel market, rather than always looking at previous experience, is the top priority.

Don't always think that my capital is small and want to make a big profit with a small investment, which will make your already poor life even worse.
We can make less money, even if it is a loss, it must be within the scope of our ability to bear. Never use leverage, borrowing, etc. to invest in the cryptocurrency circle.
If you want to turn things around through the cryptocurrency circle, but you don't have the ability to make money, and you blindly ignore risks, don't recognize value investment, and only want to make a wave of money in the cryptocurrency bull market, and regard trading in the cryptocurrency circle as speculation or even gambling, then ignore what I said.

This round of altcoin market is indeed difficult, and it is difficult to avoid the violent fluctuations of the market even with small leverage.

Those who hope to make big money with small money will have a harder time.

In the past, when the price of Bitcoin rose, the altcoins would rise sharply, and the rise would be even more fierce.

But it is different now. Bitcoin has not fallen much, and most altcoins have broken new lows in succession, and most of them are close to the bottom of the bear market. Bitcoin has risen to 60,000, and most altcoins have not returned to their original positions.

There are many factors in this round, and it still needs to test everyone's vision and ability to choose coins.

In the past, when the bull market came, almost all coins could soar, but now, it is different.

So it is really important to choose the right coin. If you choose the wrong one, other coins will rise while your own coins will not rise, and other coins will fall while your own coins will fall more sharply. Then, let alone making money, it will be a long way to get your money back.

You can’t invest full-time. For those who invest full-time, what they earn is not necessarily excess returns, but mostly management fees.

Because many times you may earn a lot of money in a good market, but at that time you think that it is because of your ability. Once the environment is bad, everything will fall back.

When it falls back, this feeling is the most fatal.

So investing must be done part-time, in order to understand the world and to have some fun.

BTC
Currently showing signs of rebound on the 4-hour chart, pay attention to the breakthrough of the early high of 57250. Once successful, the upper resistance level is around 58300 to 59400.
If the rebound is blocked, pay attention to the support position near 55600 when falling back. As long as this level can be maintained, it may continue to move sideways and then climb upward. If it falls below 55600, it suggests that this wave of rebound may end, and the market will turn to a bearish trend. The lower support levels are around 54500, 53480 and 52480.
ETH
Currently, it is still in a sideways state on the 4-hour chart. To rise, it is necessary to stand firm at the pressure level of 2545. Once it stands firm, the upper target will be around 2608 and 2693.
If it fails to stand above 2545 today, pay attention to 2410 as the bottom support of the sideways zone when retreating. As long as it can keep from falling below this level, it is likely to continue to fluctuate upward. If it falls below 2410, the support below will be around 2310, 2223 and 2148.

The US economy is in recession, global stock markets are panicking, and Japanese stocks are halted.
In August, Bitcoin also started to plummet, creating the largest single-week drop since the collapse of FTX.
At this stage, Bitcoin has not really made people feel that it is a safe haven tool, but instead it goes with the mainstream investment market.
It's unpleasant but there is no way, this is the current market.

The currency market is also extremely panicked, with all kinds of bad voices surrounding it.
Some "prophets" even say that the bull market is over, and even use old-fashioned words such as "this year is the worst first year in the past five years, but the best year in the next five years." Some of them will also forward their previous posts to prove their predictions. But they seem to have forgotten that Bitcoin was only 42,000 at the beginning of the year. Even if it seems that what they say is right now, you can still choose to ignore it. Yes, you can believe nothing. In any market, when the volatility is the most intense, the wisest thing for you to do is to cover your ears for these noisy voices. People who predict the future Why didn't we see them take action when we were bottoming out in the bear market before? When no one was interested in Bitcoin in the early days, why Why didn't you see them preaching?
In the face of a market that is either rising or falling, if you find 100 monkeys, 50 of them will be able to guess correctly in terms of probability.

Suddenly I remembered that on March 12, 2020, the market crashed to the bottom, which was much more fierce than this.
Almost all leveraged players were basically swallowed up by the market tide on that day, without even a bone left.
Even if your world was gray that day, looking back at that day from today's point in time, the first feeling is, why didn't you buy the bottom? Why panic?

Indeed, there is nothing to panic about any big drop.
Don't use leverage, don't be confident in making a difference, be more patient, any plunge in the bull market stage will be a trivial matter in the future.

This time BTC’s sharp decline is different. There is no significant sign of rebound, giving people a feeling of despair or even bottomlessness.

I suggest not to rush into aggressive long opening or buying operations, but to wait for confirmation on the right side of the market, such as waiting for the three-day line to close stably at $56,000, or other bottom support levels such as $50,000-52,000 or even $46,000.

Since this decline is somewhat divorced from the technical picture and more like panic selling, the safest strategy is to wait for the market to confirm stability before entering the market.

There are four key pieces of information to understand on paper to make a complete transaction

After figuring it out, calculate the risk and manage the position, and then open the order

1. Where to enter the market

2. What is the trading level (limit the holding time)

3. Where to stop loss (risk exposure range)

4. Where to stop profit (potential profit)

No matter what kind of trading technology is used, what data is used, and how many calculation factors are used, the ultimate goal is to know the above information more clearly

Most of the time, the position information of a certain person that we can obtain in the public domain information flow is only the entry price. Some people may disclose 3 and 4, but 2 is still unknown.

The role of the trading level is to circle the price range of this transaction, which is used to define the stop profit and stop loss, and secondly, to limit our maximum holding time. This is another key information that determines whether the current position needs to be closed in addition to the stop profit and stop loss: when the stop profit and stop loss have not occurred, and the holding time exceeds the average holding time of the trading level, the possibility of variables in the current order will increase, and it is necessary to temporarily leave the market and wait and see.

Cross-level trading is really a common thing, and it is also one of the reasons why most people lose money. For example, I have been doing long swings recently. If I don’t limit my holding time, if I hold it longer, I will definitely be the one who turns off the lights and eats noodles today.

So before placing an order, understand this information, calculate the risk, manage the position, limit the time, and then enjoy your trading.

August 2 Bitcoin Market Analysis
In terms of macroeconomics, although Powell was dovish in his speech in the early hours of yesterday morning, Bitcoin has adjusted independently from the US stock market and gold in the past two days. The internal reason is probably that the currency circle funds are defending today's non-agricultural employment data in advance. The US stock market has been adjusted for more than half a month since July 10, and Bitcoin has been rebounding and rising in the past half month. Therefore, Bitcoin fell independently the day before yesterday, while the US stock market rose sharply. Yesterday, the US stock market also began to weaken overnight, which is inevitably related to the non-agricultural data to be released today. The defensive actions in advance must be taken, sooner or later.

In addition, the Bank of England announced yesterday the first interest rate cut in more than four years, lowering the benchmark interest rate to 5%. Policymakers ultimately voted 5 to 4 in favor of the rate cut. The Bank of England will hold its next meeting on September 19 to discuss policy measures, and will hold two more meetings in November and December this year. The Bank of England has also fired the first shot of interest rate cuts. In the next 1-2 years, interest rate cuts will become the main theme of major central banks around the world, and market liquidity will get better and better.

Bitcoin and Ethereum bottomed out at the 4-hour level

Currently rebounding slightly

I don’t recommend going long at this time

It fell too fast, without any rebound in the middle

It didn’t go down directly without any consolidation

It can’t be confirmed that it will bottom out and rebound here to resume the bullish trend (the probability is very low)

For the time being, let’s look at it as an oversold rebound

It can reach a price above 64,500 and can be maintained for more than 3 days

Or rise to above 65,100

Then consider the long position..

It’s okay to miss out a little

If it is a rebound in a decline

Finally, it will fall again

Then it will be a real trap….

Can you tell me which round of market has no alt season?
Many people cannot make money because of the bad environment.
The coins they bought do not rise, and they say there is no alt season.
The so-called alt season does not mean that all alts rise.
As the number of alt coins increases exponentially, the market value also opens high, which means that only a few alts can rise.
There may be only dozens of alts that can keep up with the big cake in the future. Whether you can seize it depends on luck in addition to ability.
Opportunities are always there, but the difficulty increases exponentially.

The altcoin market has encountered huge challenges in the current environment. Except for a few sectors such as meme and AI, and projects such as SOL that are expected to take over ETFs, most altcoins have experienced disastrous performance. This situation is mainly caused by the following three reasons:

First, the approval of ETFs has changed the capital flow path of the market. Traditionally, incremental funds usually enter the market through the path of "stablecoins - BTC, ETH - altcoins". However, nowadays, incremental funds from traditional markets prefer to invest in BTC directly through ETFs, resulting in funds no longer flowing into the altcoin market as in the past, leading to insufficient liquidity.

Second, the continuous unlocking of VC tokens has led to continuous selling pressure. This situation has caused the market supply of some altcoins to exceed market demand. Although the prices of some tokens have continued to fall, their circulating market value has continued to set new highs.

Third, new projects that opened at sky-high prices continue to absorb the remaining liquidity in the market. Projects such as ZKsync, LayerZero, Blast, etc. have been launched on a large scale, and their general valuations are at the billion-dollar level, further exacerbating the liquidity problem in the altcoin market.

Despite these challenges, some industry leaders remain optimistic about the future performance of altcoins. For example, Rich Rosenblum, co-CEO and co-founder of cryptocurrency market maker GSR, said that altcoins will make a comeback and are expected to return strongly.