Bit_Guru

Itaú Unibanco Holding SA, Latin America’s largest private bank, has taken a notable step in redefining how Bitcoin fits into modern portfolio construction. In a recent strategy note, the bank advised its clients to consider allocating between 1% and 3% of their portfolios to Bitcoin looking ahead to 2026 — not as a speculative bet, but as a calculated hedge against currency erosion and macro uncertainty.

The São Paulo–based lender highlighted a growing challenge facing Brazilian investors: the combination of global inflation volatility and persistent pressure on the Brazilian real. According to Itaú’s analysts, traditional asset mixes are increasingly vulnerable to domestic cycles, making diversification beyond local markets more important than ever. Bitcoin, they argue, offers exposure to a return stream that is structurally different from fixed income, equities, or domestic assets.

Itaú emphasized that Bitcoin’s value lies in its low correlation with traditional asset classes and its global, decentralized nature. This “hybrid” profile — part high-risk asset, part long-term store of value — allows it to function as a currency hedge while still offering upside potential. Importantly, the bank cautioned against overexposure, framing Bitcoin as a complementary allocation, not a core holding.

The guidance stresses discipline and a long-term mindset. Attempting perfect market timing, the bank warned, often undermines returns in assets like Bitcoin. Instead, a modest allocation can enhance diversification, improve resilience during external shocks, and preserve exposure to long-term appreciation.

With a 3% ceiling, Itaú now aligns closely with forward-looking global institutions, narrowing the gap with major US banks that recommend similar exposure. For Brazilian investors navigating shorter economic cycles and currency risk, the message is clear: Bitcoin is no longer fringe — it is becoming a strategic tool when used with moderation and intent.

$BTC #BTC

The broader group of Made-in-USA cryptocurrencies has remained unusually quiet over the past week, even as volatility picked up across the wider crypto market. This kind of flat behavior often stands out heading into Christmas, a period known for thin liquidity where small shifts in order flow can trigger outsized moves. When prices compress while narratives continue to develop, pressure quietly builds beneath the surface.

Several US-based projects are now approaching clear technical decision zones. These are levels where either buyers finally step in with conviction, or sellers regain control and extend the prevailing trend. Below are three Made-in-USA coins traders are watching closely as Christmas 2025 approaches.

Cardano (ADA)

Cardano continues to face heavy downside pressure and remains one of the more fragile Made-in-USA setups. The token is down roughly 3.5% over the past 24 hours and more than 27% over the last month. The recent Midnight upgrade failed to materially improve sentiment, and price action suggests sellers are still firmly in control.

On the daily chart, ADA has broken lower from a bearish pole-and-flag structure, a continuation pattern that typically signals further downside. That breakdown keeps the broader bearish projection active, pointing to a potential decline of nearly 39% from the original breakdown zone. The immediate level to watch is $0.370, a support area that has held several times in recent weeks. A daily close below this level would significantly increase downside risk and bring $0.259 into focus.

For stabilization, Cardano must see selling pressure fade near $0.370. A meaningful shift in momentum would only occur if ADA can reclaim $0.489 and then $0.517, levels that align with key Fibonacci resistance. Until then, Cardano remains vulnerable heading into the Christmas period.

Stellar (XLM)

Stellar sits at a critical crossroads as short-term price weakness clashes with longer-term adoption growth. XLM is down around 2.5% over the past day and nearly 18% on the month. While the number of real-world asset holders on Stellar has increased recently, the total value locked on the network has declined, reflecting caution among larger participants.

Technically, Stellar formed a hidden bearish divergence in early December, where price made a lower high while RSI printed a higher high. Since then, XLM has continued to drift lower, confirming that the broader downtrend remains intact. The key support level now stands at $0.231. Holding above this zone would suggest selling pressure is slowing, particularly during thin holiday trading. A daily close below it would expose $0.216 and potentially accelerate losses.

To shift the structure, Stellar needs to reclaim $0.262, a level that has capped every recovery attempt since mid-November. Until that happens, caution remains warranted.

Litecoin (LTC)

Litecoin stands out as one of the more stable Made-in-USA coins heading into Christmas. While still down around 19% on the month, LTC is up roughly 1.5% on the week. This relative strength aligns with reports of institutional accumulation, with funds and large holders quietly adding millions of LTC despite muted retail interest.

From a technical perspective, Litecoin is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a structure that often precedes trend reversals. Although a breakout attempt in early December failed, the pattern remains valid as long as price holds above $79.63. A clean daily close above the neckline near $87.08 would reactivate the setup and open the door toward $97.95 and potentially $101.69.

As Christmas approaches, Litecoin represents a steady, decision-point setup where institutional demand contrasts with still-cautious price action — a combination that often becomes clearer during low-liquidity periods.
$ADA $LTC $XLM

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is laying foundational infrastructure for a future market structure where U.S. Treasuries and digital assets could coexist within a single risk and clearing framework.

On December 12, the CFTC approved an expansion of cross-margining for U.S. Treasuries—a technical move with far-reaching implications. While understated, the decision signals a meaningful shift in how regulators envision capital efficiency, liquidity, and risk management across asset classes.

What the New Order Changes

The updated framework allows eligible customers—not just clearing members—to offset margin requirements across Treasury futures cleared at CME Group. It also applies to cash Treasuries cleared through the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation’s Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC).

CME Group plays a central role here. Beyond being the world’s largest futures exchange, it is also the leading U.S. venue for regulated crypto derivatives, including Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. That overlap is critical.

CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham described the change as a liquidity-enhancing reform, noting that expanding cross-margining to customers can “increase liquidity and resiliency in U.S. Treasuries, the most important market in the world.”

Why Cross-Margining Matters

Cross-margining allows correlated positions within a portfolio to be netted against each other, reducing total collateral requirements. Extending this capability from dealer balance sheets to end customers in the Treasury market represents a structural evolution rather than a routine rule change.

Market participants see this as a real-world stress test for advanced risk models—models that could eventually support portfolios holding Treasuries, tokenized funds, and crypto assets under unified margin and clearing systems.

Implications for Crypto Derivatives

For crypto markets, particularly CME-listed Bitcoin and Ethereum futures, the implications are notable. If Treasuries and Treasury futures can be cross-margined at scale, similar frameworks could eventually support more complex, multi-asset portfolios.

In practice, that could mean tokenized Treasury bills, spot Bitcoin, and CME crypto futures being managed within a single clearing ecosystem, governed by consistent margin rules and risk controls. This would mark a significant step toward institutional-grade integration of digital assets.

A Broader Regulatory Alignment

The timing of the CFTC’s move is not accidental. It aligns with broader regulatory efforts spanning both the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as policymakers reassess market structure, clearing, and settlement in an era of tokenization.

The SEC is conducting parallel work on clearing reform and digital asset custody, while the CFTC recently launched a Digital Asset Collateral Pilot. That initiative allows Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as margin in CFTC-regulated derivatives markets—another signal that digital assets are being evaluated alongside traditional collateral.

The Bigger Picture

Take together, these developments reflect a regulatory focus on capital efficiency, systemic resilience, and realistic risk management across markets where the line between traditional finance and crypto continues to blur.

Rather than forcing digital assets into legacy frameworks or building entirely separate systems regulators appear to be testing how both worlds can converge within existing financial infrastructure. Quiet reforms like expanded Treasury cross-margining may prove to be the most important building blocks in that transition.

XRP has started to show early signs of recovery after rebounding nearly 4% from recent lows. While the broader market structure remains cautious, momentum indicators suggest that downside pressure may be weakening. The recent bounce, followed by a controlled pullback, hints that sellers are losing dominance rather than aggressively pushing price lower.

What makes this setup more interesting is the appearance of a bullish divergence on the daily chart. Between December 1 and December 12, XRP printed a lower low in price while the Relative Strength Index formed a higher low. This divergence often signals exhaustion in selling momentum and can precede trend reversals when supported by strong on-chain behavior.

That on-chain confirmation is now emerging. The largest XRP whale cohorts have begun accumulating. Wallets holding over 1 billion XRP increased their balances from 25.36 billion to 25.42 billion, while the 100 million to 1 billion XRP group reversed prior selling and added to their positions. Combined, these whales accumulated roughly 130 million XRP — equivalent to about $265 million at current prices. This indicates active conviction, not passive observation.

The timing is notable. Ripple’s progress toward regulated US banking status strengthens its institutional narrative, providing a macro backdrop that supports long-term accumulation. Whales appear to be positioning ahead of potential regulatory clarity rather than reacting to short-term price moves.

From a technical perspective, the next key level is $2.11. A daily close above this zone would confirm short-term control by buyers. Beyond that, $2.21 stands as a critical resistance; reclaiming it would shift the structure bullish and reopen upside targets toward $2.58. On the downside, a drop below $1.96 would invalidate the divergence and reintroduce downside risk toward $1.88 and $1.81.

For now, the setup is constructive but incomplete. Momentum is improving, whales have acted, and the narrative is supportive — but sustained accumulation and price confirmation are still required for a full reversal to unfold.

$XRP #xrp

A growing governance dispute has emerged within the Aave ecosystem, highlighting deeper tensions between decentralized communities and core development teams. At the center of the debate is a decision by Aave Labs to replace ParaSwap with CoW Swap as the trading infrastructure on Aave’s primary web interface — a move that has ignited strong reactions from DAO members and governance delegates.

The controversy stems from the economic impact of this change. Previously, ParaSwap generated referral fees that flowed into the Aave DAO treasury, contributing an estimated $200,000 per week. Governance members argue that removing this integration effectively eliminates a revenue stream that could total nearly $10 million annually, redirecting value away from AAVE token holders and the DAO.

Marc Zeller, founder of the Aave Chan Initiative, has been one of the most vocal critics. He described the move as a “stealth privatization” of Aave’s brand and user flow, arguing that Aave Labs made a unilateral economic decision without proper DAO approval. According to Zeller, the issue goes beyond lost revenue — it raises concerns about transparency, governance boundaries, and the precedent this sets for future upgrades, including the upcoming Aave V4.

Zeller warned that if interface-level decisions can materially affect DAO revenue without governance consent, other components of the ecosystem could also be isolated from community oversight. He framed the debate as a broader question of fiduciary responsibility toward the DAO and long-term token holders.

In response, Aave Labs CEO Stani Kulechov firmly rejected claims that the DAO lost “protocol revenue.” He clarified that the ParaSwap fees were not a mandatory protocol fee but a discretionary surplus voluntarily donated by Aave Labs. Kulechov emphasized the distinction between the decentralized Aave protocol, governed by the DAO, and the front-end interface, which he described as a privately funded and maintained product.

Aave Labs argued that it bears the full cost of development, security, and maintenance for the interface, without financial support from the DAO. From this perspective, monetizing the interface is viewed as a necessary step to ensure sustainability. The firm also stated that the switch to CoW Swap was driven by improved trade execution and stronger protection against MEV, not by revenue extraction.

While Aave Labs acknowledged shortcomings in communication, the dispute has sparked an important debate within DeFi: where should the line be drawn between decentralized governance and the commercial realities of protocol development? As Aave moves closer to its V4 upgrade, how this conflict is resolved may shape governance expectations across the broader DeFi ecosystem.

$AAVE