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President Donald Trump’s $TRUMP meme coin took a 16% hit on Friday morning, just hours after a much-hyped gala at his Trump National Golf Club in Potomac Falls, Virginia, on May 22, 2025. Billed as “the most exclusive invitation in the world,” the event drew 220 deep-pocketed investors who shelled out a combined $148 million for entry. Yet, many left underwhelmed by lackluster food and scant face time with Trump. The President made a fleeting 23-minute appearance, delivering a speech on his ambition for a U.S. bitcoin reserve and his crypto-friendly agenda, only to exit by helicopter without mingling or posing for photos. This abrupt exit and the gala's lackluster execution contributed to the drop in $TRUMP's value, raising concerns about the token's stability and Trump's crypto initiatives.The AI cryptocurrency scene is heating up again, with Virtuals Protocol leading the sector. Investors are flocking to AI-related projects, captivated by the promise of artificial intelligence enhancing Web3 through autonomous and agent-based innovations. Riding this wave, Virtuals Protocol’s $VIRTUAL token soared 8% over the past week. Since bottoming out at $0.41 on April 7, it’s skyrocketed by 485%, propelled by surging interest in AI-powered blockchain solutions. This rally highlights the growing allure of smart, tech-forward tokens in the evolving crypto landscape.Toncoin ($TON) spiked 21% on Wednesday, climbing from $3.01 to $3.65, after Telegram CEO Pavel Durov touted a deal to weave xAI’s Grok chatbot into the app. The excitement fizzled fast, though, with a 7% drop on Thursday when Elon Musk denied the news of the $300 million Telegram-xAI partnership. Still, $TON clawed back some ground, posting a 5.4% gain over the last week. These wild swings underscore how sensitive crypto markets are to big-name buzz—and how quickly sentiment shifts when the hype doesn’t hold.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at a log scale.In our May 15 report, we spotlighted the impressive surge in Bitcoin (BTC) prices, propelled by a massive wave of capital pouring in through ETFs. This flood of investment was the key force behind BTC smashing through to a fresh all-time high of $111,980 last week. However, the rally hit a roadblock when US President Trump unveiled 50% tariffs on European Union imports last Friday. The announcement threw a wrench into BTC’s upward climb, pulling its price below $110,000 and triggering three straight days of losses. Despite this, ETF inflows remain strong, hinting to our team that the bullish trend might be facing a pivotal shift.The chart above reveals another critical development: BTC has slipped below the 7-week upward trendline that held firm since April 9—the same day Trump’s reciprocal tariffs kicked in. This breach is a red flag for our analysts, signaling that the market’s momentum may be taking a turn. As of now, BTC is hovering at $106,000, a level that could swing either way. Per the chart, a drop might find solid footing at $103,000, while $110,000 looms as a tough resistance point along the trendline. Short-term traders, take note: it’s wiser to sit tight and let the market show its hand before jumping in.Zooming out, our team remains optimistic about BTC’s long-term trajectory, especially after two weeks of hefty ETF inflows. The sheer volume of this capital points to institutional heavyweights from traditional finance fueling the rally that ignited on April 9. These players aren’t in it for a quick flip—they’re embracing a buy-and-hold mindset, eyeing sustained growth. With ETFs snapping up large chunks of BTC, the market’s floating supply is shrinking fast, laying the groundwork for another potential price surge.On top of that, we’re seeing a growing wave of companies weaving BTC into their balance sheets, taking a page from Michael Saylor’s playbook. This corporate embrace is a bullish beacon for BTC’s integration into mainstream finance. If this trend gains steam, it could spark a domino effect, drawing more firms into the fold and pushing BTC’s price even higher.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.The price of BTC soared to unprecedented levels, fueled by a significant influx of capital through the ETF channel. The robust interest from the traditional finance sector, particularly from institutional investors, contributed to BTC reaching a new all-time high of $111,980 USDT last Thursday.Despite the ongoing inflow, albeit at a diminished rate concerning ETFs, it was insufficient to continue the BTC uptrend. Consequently, the BTC price retreated to the $106k support level as traders began to realize their profits.Over the long term, the substantial capital inflow indicates a bullish outlook among institutional investors, who typically adopt a long-term investment approach. In other words, these Bitcoin ETF purchasers are inclined towards a buy-and-hold strategy, which effectively decreases the floating supply in the market and positively influences the long-term price trajectory of BTC.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-05-22)U.S. initial jobless claims remained subdued, with 227,000 claims reported last week, falling below the forecasted 230,000.The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May is projected at 52.3, significantly exceeding the forecasted 49.9. Likewise, the S&P Global Services PMI is anticipated to reach 52.3, surpassing the expected 51.0. These improving PMI figures indicate a shift toward an optimistic economic outlook for the U.S., bolstered by recent tariff developments between the U.S. and its trading partners.Last Friday (25-05-23)The U.K. reported robust retail sales growth in April, with annual growth reaching 5.0%, exceeding the forecasted 4.5%. Core retail sales also exhibited strong performance, achieving a 5.3% annual growth rate, higher than the anticipated 4.4%.Germany’s GDP experienced a 0.4% quarterly growth in Q1, outperforming the forecasted 0.2%.U.S. new home sales surged from 670,000 in March to 743,000 in April, surpassing the forecasted 694,000.On Tuesday (25-05-27)U.S. durable goods orders contracted by 6.3% in April, an improvement over the forecasted 7.6% decline.The U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index for May registered at 98.0, substantially higher than the forecasted 87.1 and April’s 85.7. This uptick reflects a resurgence in consumer confidence and a greater willingness to spend, which is expected to contribute positively to U.S. GDP growth.On Wednesday (25-05-28)The FOMC meeting minutes from May reveal that officials remain cautious regarding interest rate decisions, opting to await further economic data before implementing any policy adjustments.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

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Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the 1D candle chart at a log scale.In our previous report, our desk maintained an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, anticipating a new all-time high in the coming weeks, primarily driven by robust capital inflows from the spot ETF segment. Our analysis highlighted that the muted implied volatility in Bitcoin options signaled the potential for a rapid price movement in either direction. We advised our readers to remain optimistic on Bitcoin’s price trajectory over the higher timeframes while preparing for short-term downside protection.The market evolved more rapidly than expected. The 7-day implied volatility for BTC options surged sharply from 25% on July 10 to over 40% by July 17, coinciding with a notable 6% price gain in seven days. Sustained capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs further propelled BTC’s price beyond the psychological $120,000 level, culminating in a new all-time high of 123,218 USDT.As of July 17, Bitcoin is consolidating around the $118,000 level, while many altcoins have posted impressive double-digit gains last week. Ethereum ($ETH) surged over 23%, briefly surpassing the $3,400 mark on Wednesday. Solana ($SOL) rallied more than 12%, trading above $175 on Wednesday during the US session. Other tokens also delivered strong returns last week, with Curve ($CRV) leading the pack with a 71.4% gain, Ondo ($ONDO) rising over 15% intraday, and Ethereum Name Service (ENS) appreciating by more than 37%.Over the past seven days, projects within the Ethereum ecosystem have benefited significantly from the ETH price rally. This strong performance was notably supported by aggressive accumulation from institutional players. SharpLink Gaming, a publicly listed company following a BTC accumulation strategy similar to Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, acquired $225 million worth of Ethereum in July, bringing its total holdings to approximately 280,000 ETH, valued at $884 million at current prices. Additionally, BitMine Immersion Technologies raised $250 million in June to establish an Ethereum treasury, acquiring over $500 million worth of ETH since then.This substantial corporate accumulation has materially reduced the available market supply of Ethereum, exerting upward pressure on its price and further fueling investor enthusiasm.Looking ahead, our analysis suggests that Bitcoin may continue to consolidate sideways around the current levels for another week or two, while altcoins are likely to maintain their outperformance relative to BTC. Although we hold an optimistic view on altcoin performance in the near term, we emphasize the importance of maintaining high conviction in the projects you invest in. Chasing recent strong gainers may not yield superior returns. Given the market’s tendency for rolling rallies across different tokens, holding high-conviction assets and patiently awaiting their turn is expected to deliver better outcomes during this phase.
Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.As highlighted in our previous discussions, our desk continues to view capital inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETF as a critical driver of BTC price dynamics. According to the data presented above, over $2.2 billion flowed into Bitcoin during last Thursday and Friday, with substantial additional inflows recorded in the first three days of this week. This significant influx of capital underscores strong demand from traditional investors seeking higher growth opportunities and enhanced portfolio diversification.Additionally, our desk observed that a long-term Bitcoin holder, possessing over 80,000 BTC for more than 14 years, has begun to liquidate part of their holdings to realize profits gradually. Notably, the market absorbed the initial 40,000 BTC sell-off with minimal disruption, as BTC’s price declined by less than 1% before quickly recovering.The robust demand for Bitcoin reinforces our conviction that the ongoing bull market will sustain its upward momentum over the coming months. We believe that continued institutional adoption and capital inflows could propel BTC toward our year-end price target of $150,000.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday, July 10, 2025Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered no monthly change in June, holding steady at 0.0%, which corresponds to an annual inflation rate of 2.0%, down from 2.1% in May. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany’s continued moderation in inflation signals progress toward the European Central Bank’s long-term target, reinforcing expectations of price stability in the region.In the United States, initial jobless claims remained low at 227,000, outperforming the forecast of 236,000. Continuing claims also declined to 1,965 thousand, below the anticipated 1,980 thousand. These figures suggest that the U.S. labor market remains resilient and stable amid ongoing economic uncertainties.Last Friday, July 11, 2025Canada reported a surprisingly strong employment gain in June, with 83,100 new jobs added compared to the forecasted 900 positions. The unemployment rate improved to 6.9% from 7.0% in May, beating expectations of a rise to 7.1%. On Monday, July 14, 2025China’s imports rebounded in June, posting a 1.1% year-over-year increase following a 3.4% decline in May. However, this growth fell short of analyst expectations of 1.3%, with ongoing tariff-related challenges continuing to constrain import expansion.Meanwhile, new loan issuance in China surged significantly due to seasonal factors, rising from 620 billion CNY in May to 2,240 billion CNY in June, surpassing the forecast of 1,960 billion CNY. This credit expansion reflects policy efforts to support domestic economic activity.On Tuesday, July 15, 2025China’s second-quarter GDP growth came in at 5.2% year-over-year, with the year-to-date annual growth rate at 5.3%, indicating steady economic momentum.In the U.S., headline CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in June, translating to a 2.7% annual increase—both higher than May’s 0.1% monthly and 2.4% annual figures. Core CPI also increased by 0.2% monthly and 2.9% annually, slightly above the previous month’s 0.1% and 2.8%, respectively. While tariffs began to impact inflation in June, the effect on core inflation components was milder than anticipated. These inflation dynamics increase the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.Canada also experienced an uptick in core CPI, which rose to 2.7% in June from 2.5% in May, reflecting similar inflationary pressures in the region.On Wednesday, July 16, 2025The United Kingdom saw a modest acceleration in headline CPI in June, with a 0.3% monthly increase compared to 0.2% in May. Annual inflation rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4% the previous month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.In the U.S., the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, missing the expected 0.2% increase. The annual PPI growth slowed to 2.3% from 2.7% in May, signaling a deceleration in wholesale inflation.
Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: [email protected] for more information.

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Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the 1D candle chart at a log scale.In our previous report, our desk maintained an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in the coming weeks, while also highlighting downside risks associated with the upcoming expiration of the US tariffs pause on July 9, 2025. Additionally, we flagged the unusually low implied volatility in BTC options as a potential signal for an imminent significant price move.Last Friday, BTC briefly traded below $107,300, marking a 2.8% decline from Thursday’s high of $109,560. Market sentiment remained relatively subdued, with BTC implied volatility (IV) experiencing a slight rebound after the drop but returning to lower levels over the weekend. The $107,500 level continued to act as key support, aligned with the upper boundary of the established bull flag pattern.Our desk observed a recurring trading pattern related to US tariffs, where risk assets tend to decline ahead of tariff effective dates but rally afterward. As discussed in our March 13 and April 10 commentaries, this phenomenon—colloquially termed “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out)—follows a three-step cycle: initial tariff announcement triggers market sell-off; investors buy the dip anticipating tariff rollback; and finally, tariffs are delayed, reduced, or withdrawn, prompting market recovery.This pattern appeared to repeat on Wednesday, July 9, the final day of the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs introduced on April 9. The market rallied with the announcement that tariffs would take effect on August 1. BTC exhibited strong buying momentum an hour before the US market closed, surging to a new all-time high of $112,000. Altcoins outperformed, with ETH rising over 6% and trading above $2,795.Amid this altcoin strength, BTC dominance (BTC.D) began to decline. Our analysis suggests this trend could continue, potentially driving BTC.D down toward the 50% range over the coming months. This shift may signal the onset of the long-anticipated altcoin season within the current cycle.However, several critical factors remain unresolved before we can confirm this outlook:1. The absence of global liquidity easing, particularly from the Federal Reserve. While the Fed plans to relax the MLR (Minimum Liquidity Requirement) restrictions, our desk expects a more accommodative monetary environment only after the Fed initiates interest rate cuts. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the probability of a rate cut in the upcoming July 30 meeting has fallen to 5% following last Friday’s strong labor market data.2. The upcoming Token Generation Event (TGE) of Pump.fun coin, currently valued at approximately $4 billion. We are concerned that this large-scale TGE could absorb significant market capital—especially within the Solana ecosystem—potentially causing market disruptions similar to those triggered by $TRUMP earlier in 2025.Without easing global liquidity and lower US interest rates, it is difficult to argue that the long-awaited altcoin season is ready to commence. Institutional adoption, driven by substantial capital inflows into BTC-focused ETFs and public company balance sheets, remains concentrated primarily on Bitcoin, with only modest allocations to $ETH, $SOL, $BNB, and other large-cap altcoins. Unlike previous cycles, this institutional capital has not yet rotated from Bitcoin into altcoins, which historically has been the catalyst for altcoin season.BTC reached a new all-time high on Wednesday, supported by strong upward momentum, while our desk noted notable strength in altcoin performance. We remain optimistic on BTC’s price trajectory in this cycle; however, the persistently muted BTC implied volatility signals caution. Additionally, we are closely monitoring Federal Reserve monetary policy for indications of liquidity easing, as well as the potential market impact of the upcoming Pump.fun coin TGE on the Solana ecosystem, to better assess the likelihood of an upcoming altcoin season.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.Over the past four trading sessions, BTC spot ETFs have experienced substantial capital inflows, totaling over $1.2 billion net. During this period, BTC’s price rose from $108,800 to $111,580, representing a 2.5% gain. Despite strong and sustained capital inflows over the past month, BTC’s price has been trading within a narrow range, which raised concerns within our desk regarding the muted price movement amid robust demand.Following continued ETF inflows and significant corporate purchases by public companies, BTC surged to a new all-time high on Wednesday, reaching the $112,000 level. This breakout suggests that the accumulation from ETF buyers overtook the selling pressure on the market. Looking ahead, our desk anticipates that capital inflows will remain strong, particularly as institutional investors in traditional finance increasingly seek alternative assets to diversify beyond a US-centric investment approach. Against this backdrop of growing institutionalization, we maintain a positive outlook on BTC’s price trajectory.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (July 03, 2025)US unemployment data for June 2025 showed a decrease to 4.1% compared to 4.2% for May 2025, contrary to market expectations of an increase to 4.3%. The unemployment rate has remained within the 4.0%-4.2% range since May 2024, pointing to stability for the broad labor market. Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 147K in June 2025, markedly higher than the forecasted 110K and further underscoring a resilient labor market. The UK S&P Global Composite PMI increased for the second consecutive month to 52.0 for June 2025 (May 2025: 50.3), above forecasts of 50.7. Last Friday (July 04, 2025)The S&P Global UK Construction PMI increased to 48.8 in June 2025 (May 2025: 47.9), with modest growth for residential building outweighed by larger declines in commercial & civil engineering activity.Japan’s household spending rose at the quickest pace in 3 years, with a 4.7% annual increase for June 2025. This was markedly higher than market expectations of a 1.2% increase, and comes on the back of government action aiming at boosting domestic consumption.Tuesday (July 08, 2025)US consumer credit data for May showed consumers are slowing the rate at which they take on additional credit. Total credit increased by $5.1 billion for the month, down from a $16.9 billion increase in April.Minutes of the ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting of 3-5 June were released, showing that June’s interest rate cut was made to avoid an unnecessary increase in borrowing costs and reduced credit availability. “Highly uncertain” macro conditions were cited by policymakers in light of persistent trade tensions.Wednesday (July 09, 2025)The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June 17-18 meeting were released, with most officials implying that interest rates could be lowered by the end of the year, should certain economic outcomes justify a move. The next Federal Reserve meeting - to set interest rate policy - is set for July 29 & 30. China’s consumer price index fell by 0.10% in June 2025 over the previous month, but rose by 0.10% on an annual basis - marking the first year-on-year increase in consumer inflation since January of this year.China’s producer prices fell 3.6% annually in June 2025, surpassing market expectations of a 3.2% decrease and May 2025 ’s 3.3% decrease.Thursday (July 10, 2025)US initial jobless claims decreased from the previous week’s 232,000 to 227,000, below market expectations of an increase to 236,000 and marking the fourth consecutive decline and the lowest count in seven weeks.Continuing jobless claims in the US on the other hand increased to 1965K for June 2025, which is the highest count since November 2021 but below forecasts of 1,980K.Germany’s annual inflation rate decreased to 2% in June 2025, marking the lowest in 8 months and in line with market consensus. 

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: [email protected] for more information.

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Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the 1D candle chart at a log scale.In our previous report last week, Bitcoin was trading near the upper boundary of a bull flag pattern, as illustrated in the chart above. Our desk anticipated two possible scenarios: either BTC would be rejected at the upper bound or successfully break through to test a new all-time high.BTC followed the first scenario, testing the upper boundary around $109,000 (with an actual high of $108,870) before facing rejection. Subsequently, the price retraced to the $104,000–$105,000 range (with an actual low of $105,250), where it found support. Following a rally in the US stock market fueled by investor optimism around the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” market sentiment turned more positive, while the US dollar weakened against other major currencies.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that the impact of reciprocal tariffs could be less severe than previously anticipated, citing recent trade agreements between the US and several countries. Additionally, Bessent’s comments on Federal Reserve monetary policy increased the market’s expectations of a potential rate cut in September. The de-escalation of geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas, marked by a ceasefire agreement, further bolstered investor confidence in risk assets.Overall, market sentiment shifted bullishly toward risk assets, particularly the US stock market. However, the crypto market did not follow suit, as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new all-time highs over the past few trading sessions, while BTC remained range-bound.Notably, the BTC volatility index recently dropped to a two-year low, indicating that options traders expect BTC to trade within a tight range in the near term. Historical data suggests that such low volatility periods are typically short-lived, signaling that traders should prepare for a significant price move in either direction once BTC breaks out of its current range.Our desk leans toward an upward breakout scenario, supported by the broader macroeconomic optimism surrounding risk assets. While we expect BTC to reach a new all-time high in the coming weeks, we remain cautious of downside risks. We are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions, as we believe that a more accommodative monetary environment will be essential to sustain the next crypto bull run.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.Over the past five trading sessions, BTC spot ETFs have experienced predominantly strong capital inflows, with the exception of July 1, which saw a capital outflow of $342.25 million. In total, these sessions recorded net inflows exceeding $900 million. During the same period, BTC’s price moved modestly from $107,000 to $109,000.As previously noted, despite robust capital inflows from ETFs in recent weeks, BTC’s price has remained within a narrow range. Our analysts suggest that this price stability may be due to some long-term large BTC holders offloading assets at these levels, effectively offsetting the buying pressure from traditional finance participants.Given these dynamics, our desk maintains a cautiously neutral stance on BTC’s near-term price outlook. We continue to monitor developments on the ETF front closely, as it remains a critical factor supporting BTC’s price momentum in the current bull cycle.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (June 26, 2024)US initial jobless claims remained in a low range, with 236,000 claims reported last week, outperforming the forecast of 244,000.US durable goods orders are projected to show a significantly higher monthly growth of 16.4% in May, compared to the previous estimate of 8.6%. This notable upward revision may be attributed to the 90-day postponement of reciprocal tariffs, with the current deadline set for July 9.Last Friday (June 27, 2024)The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index recorded a 2.3% annual increase in May, in line with market expectations. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 2.7% year-over-year, slightly exceeding the forecast of 2.6%.Monday (June 30, 2024)China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 49.7 for June, marginally above the forecast of 49.6 and an improvement from May’s 49.5. This suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook, indicating that the Chinese manufacturing sector may be approaching expansion territory.Germany, one of the largest economies in the European Union, is projecting an annual inflation rate of 2.0% for June, down from the previous forecast of 2.2%.Tuesday (July 1, 2024)Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to report a 2.0% year-over-year increase in June, consistent with prior forecasts. Core CPI is also anticipated to remain steady at 2.3% annual growth.In the US, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 52.9, surpassing the forecast of 52.0. The ISM Manufacturing PMI also improved to 49.0, slightly above the expected 48.8. Both indicators suggest that the US manufacturing sector is recovering and moving toward expansion.Additionally, US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data revealed 7.769 million job openings in May, significantly higher than the forecasted 7.320 million.Wednesday (July 2, 2024)US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change surprised markets with a decline of 33,000 jobs in June, contrasting with expectations of a 99,000 increase.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: [email protected] for more information.

Join our Telegram Channel (@BinanceOTCTrading) to stay up to date with the markets!

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Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the 8H candle chart at a log scale.In our previous report dated June 19, we highlighted the disconnect between strong capital inflows from ETFs and enterprises adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, and the narrow trading range exhibited by Bitcoin’s price. The muted volatility and lack of clear directional momentum raised our analysts’ concerns regarding Bitcoin’s near-term performance. We recommended two trading strategies under different scenarios: buying at support levels and selling at resistance levels.Last Friday, following missile launches by Iran, the market experienced a sharp decline amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin moved in tandem with other risk assets and closed lower on Friday. Over the weekend, while traditional markets were closed, the crypto market continued to operate 24/7. Market sentiment was fully reflected in Bitcoin’s price, which briefly dropped below $100,000 on June 22 after US President Trump confirmed that US military forces had destroyed three nuclear facilities in Iran. This military action caused some investor fears of a broader conflict between Iran and the US/Israel, and the risk-off sentiment pushed Bitcoin below its strong support level at $100,000, dipping into the $98,000 range. As we have emphasized previously, the $100,000 level remains a critical support zone, and Bitcoin quickly rebounded above this threshold as a result.Although Bitcoin snapped below $100,000 again on Monday following Iranian missile strikes on US military bases, market sentiment shifted bullish after Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire.Currently, Bitcoin is trading near the upper boundary of a bear flag pattern, as shown in the chart above. Our desk has observed over $1.4 billion in capital inflows into Bitcoin over the past three days; however, the price has failed to sustain bullish momentum and break out of this bear flag formation. This sets up a binary scenario for the coming days:Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin breaks above the downward trendline resistance of the bear flag, triggering follow-through buying and a potential surge toward the $112,000 level.Bearish Scenario: Market sentiment turns negative, and Bitcoin faces strong resistance around the $109,000 range, leading to a gradual decline back toward the $104,000 level over the weekend.Looking ahead, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data is scheduled for release this Friday. Following Fed Chair Powell’s testimony earlier this week, the market expects inflation to show limited immediate impact from tariffs, with effects becoming more apparent from June onward. Our desk believes that any Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will be more closely tied to developments in the US labor market rather than inflation metrics. Additionally, the US reciprocal tariffs have been paused by President Trump for 90 days, with the deadline approaching on July 9. We anticipate increased market volatility as this deadline nears.Our desk remains cautiously neutral on Bitcoin’s near-term price action. While significant capital inflows suggest underlying buying interest, the inability of the price to break key resistance levels signals persistent selling pressure. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility, with potential for either a breakout to the upside or a retracement toward support levels depending on evolving market sentiment and macroeconomic developments.
Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.Since Monday, June 23, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $1.4 billion in inflows, marking 12 consecutive days of net capital inflow despite the heightened geopolitical tensions experienced last Friday and over the weekend. Over the past 12 trading sessions, a total of $3.5 billion has flowed into Bitcoin and related digital asset classes, with the BTC price moving modestly from $105,000 to $106,000.Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East during the weekend, Bitcoin’s price briefly dipped below $100,000 but quickly rebounded to around the $104,000 level. This decline followed missile launches attributed to Iran last Friday, which initially triggered the price drop.The strong capital inflows coupled with relatively muted price movement have heightened our analysts’ concerns regarding Bitcoin’s near-term performance. The disconnect between significant buying pressure and stagnant price action suggests that sellers currently dominate the market. Should the price continue to trade sideways despite sustained large ETF inflows, our analysts anticipate a surge in volatility, potentially leading to an explosive move in Bitcoin’s price.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (June 19, 2025)Australia reported a surprising decline in employment for May, with a drop of 2,500 jobs, contrary to analysts’ expectations of an increase of 20,600. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% for the month.The Bank of England announced its interest rate decision, maintaining the policy rate at 4.25%. Governor Andrew Bailey signaled that a potential rate cut could occur as early as August, citing recent data that points to a weakening labor market.Last Friday (June 20, 2025)UK retail sales for May fell unexpectedly, registering a 1.3% year-over-year decline instead of the anticipated 1.7% increase. Core retail sales also decreased by 1.3%, missing the forecasted 1.8% growth.Monday (June 23, 2025)The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June was revised upward from 51.1 to 52.0, while the Services PMI was also revised higher from 52.9 to 53.1. These upward revisions reflect growing optimism among purchasing managers regarding the US economic outlook following recent tariff uncertainties.Tuesday (June 24, 2025)The US Consumer Confidence Index, as reported by the Conference Board, declined sharply from 98.4 in May to 93.0 in June, falling short of the forecasted 99.4.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his semiannual testimony to Congress, reiterating a cautious “wait and see” stance on future interest rate adjustments.Wednesday (June 25, 2025)Chair Powell continued his testimony, noting that the impact of tariffs is expected to become more apparent from June onward. He also emphasized that the Federal Reserve still has some room to go with its balance sheet reduction.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: [email protected] for more information.

Join our Telegram Channel (@BinanceOTCTrading) to stay up to date with the markets!

Access Binance OTC desk on the VIP Portal
Algo Orders
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Overall Market

Source: TradingView

The above chart is the BTC price in the 1-day candle chart at a log scale.In our previous report dated June 6, we identified a strong support zone between $100,000 and $102,000, as highlighted on the accompanying chart. Following Bitcoin’s rebound from this support area, the upward trendline (depicted as the blue line) was expected to act as resistance within the $108,000 to $110,000 range. As anticipated, BTC encountered significant selling pressure upon reaching the $110,000 level on June 11.On Thursday, June 12, the Israel-led airstrike heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, triggering a swift decline in BTC’s price toward the $102,000 support level. Concurrently, gold and oil prices surged amid the escalating regional instability. Notably, Bitcoin demonstrated greater resilience during this episode compared to the geopolitical tension escalation in October 2024, missile attacks by Iran on Israel.Currently, BTC is consolidating within a narrow range between $104,000 and $106,000, despite substantial capital inflows through ETFs over the past eight trading sessions. This price stagnation amid strong inflows has raised cautionary signals, and we anticipate increased volatility in the near term.Additionally, reports indicate that former US President Trump privately approved attack plans targeting Iran but withheld final authorization as of Wednesday Eastern Time. The potential for further escalation in the Middle East is generating significant uncertainty, prompting investors to closely monitor developments and prepare capital allocation strategies under various scenarios.On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve announced its June FOMC decision to maintain interest rates at 4.50%. Chair Powell’s remarks underscored a “wait and see” approach toward future rate adjustments. The Fed’s hawkish stance suggests that the easing of global liquidity conditions may be delayed until later this year.Given the current geopolitical landscape and monetary policy environment, our desk has formulated several trading ideas for the coming two weeks. Please note, this is not financial advice, and we encourage you to conduct your own research.Trading IdeasScenario 1: Geopolitical Tensions Escalate, BTC Price DeclinesLong Entry: Support bounce near $100,000 - $102,000Rationale: This zone has consistently acted as strong support (highlighted by the red horizontal band), with multiple price rebounds indicating robust buyer interest.Take Profit: $110,000 - $111,500 (near recent highs and psychological resistance)Stop Loss: $98,500 (just below the support zone to limit downside risk)Scenario 2: Geopolitical Tensions De-escalate, Potential Negotiations Between Israel/US and IranShort Entry: Rejection near $111,500 - $112,000 resistanceRationale: The $111,500 - $112,000 level has proven to be a strong resistance zone, with recent price rejections.Take Profit: $103,000 - $105,000 (near support and previous consolidation areas)Stop Loss: $114,000 (above recent highs to protect against breakout)Please note that Thursday is a public holiday in the US, resulting in the closure of the US stock market. Consequently, there will be limited guidance from Bitcoin spot ETF flows. In the absence of ETF-driven capital inflows, it will be critical to closely monitor BTC price action to assess underlying selling pressure.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.Since June 9, 2025, approximately $2 billion in capital has flowed into the BTC asset class through ETF channels, according to the ETF capital tracker. This substantial inflow indicates that traditional financial institutions are increasingly allocating risk exposure to Bitcoin, often referred to as digital gold, despite the recent price decline triggered by the Israeli airstrike news last Thursday.Nevertheless, despite the $2 billion investment via ETFs, alongside significant BTC accumulation by publicly listed companies like Strategy and others from the open market, Bitcoin’s price has remained confined within a narrow range. It has struggled to gain upward momentum. The inability of BTC’s price to advance amid strong capital inflows raises concerns regarding underlying selling pressure. The muted price response despite robust inflows may suggest that Bitcoin is encountering significant resistance from large sellers, effectively capping its upside potential.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (June 12, 2025)US initial jobless claims rose slightly to 248,000 last week, marginally above the forecasted 242,000.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a modest 0.1% month-over-month increase in May, falling short of the anticipated 0.2%. The impact of tariffs on domestic inflation appears to be unfolding more gradually than expected.In the evening (Eastern Time), Israel unexpectedly launched missile strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, significantly escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This development triggered a broad sell-off in risk assets, while gold and oil prices surged in response.On Tuesday (June 17, 2025)The Bank of Japan announced it would maintain its interest rate at 0.50%, keeping it unchanged. Additionally, the central bank signaled a more cautious approach by deciding to slow the pace of its balance sheet reduction next year, reflecting a measured stance on unwinding its quantitative easing program.US retail sales declined by 0.9% in May, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.5%. Core retail sales also fell by 0.3%, contrary to analyst forecasts of a 0.2% increase.On Wednesday (June 18, 2025)The UK’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate slowed slightly to 3.4% in May, down from 3.5% in April, but missed the forecasted 3.3%.In contrast, the Eurozone’s annual CPI growth rate eased to 1.9% in May, down from 2.2% in April.US initial jobless claims remained steady at 245,000 last week.Following its June meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, as widely anticipated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference reinforced a “wait and see” approach regarding future rate adjustments. The Fed’s dot plot projections indicate the possibility of two rate cuts in 2025.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

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Top Interest of the Week

Aave ($AAVE), a prominent decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol, has recently garnered significant investor interest following the introduction of the GENIUS Act (Guidance and Establishment of U.S. Stablecoin Innovation Act). This legislative proposal is widely regarded as a potential catalyst for the broader crypto market, as it aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins within the DeFi sector. As the largest protocol by TVL in the borrowing and lending space, AAVE experienced a notable price increase, coinciding with the total value locked (TVL) in its network reaching $25.5 billion. Additionally, AAVE’s price surged after community members voted in favor of launching Aave Umbrella, a decentralized risk mitigation mechanism designed to safeguard liquidity providers against bad debt. Through this system, users can stake their Aave aTokens to earn rewards, with the understanding that their staked tokens may be subject to slashing if bad debt occurs.Plume ($PLUME) suffered a sharp decline of over 10% following the unexpected passing of the network’s co-founder and CTO, Eugene Shen, last Thursday. The news triggered a wave of investor concern, as market participants feared that the sudden loss of the CTO could disrupt the project’s development, including potential challenges in accessing critical coding infrastructure. Although the price briefly rebounded within hours, buying momentum quickly dissipated amid sustained selling pressure.Raydium ($RAY), the leading decentralized exchange (DEX) on the Solana network, experienced a 24% price decline over the last seven days. One contributing factor was the announcement of a crypto presale by Pump.fun, a meme coin launchpad aiming to raise $1 billion with a $4 billion valuation. Investors expressed apprehension as the Pump.fun team reportedly converts platform-generated revenue into market sales rather than holding it in $SOL tokens. This large-scale presale was perceived as a capital drain from the Solana ecosystem. Our desk observed traders attempting to front-run the market by offloading tokens within the Solana ecosystem, with $RAY among the assets most affected by this sell-off.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the 8H candle chart at a log scale.In our report dated May 29, our analysis indicated that the Bitcoin (BTC) price had fallen below the established seven-week upward trend, represented by the blue line on the chart above. At that time, BTC was trading near the $106,000 level, with key resistance identified at approximately $110,000 and support positioned around $103,000. Given this technical setup, our desk recommended that swing traders exercise patience and consider entering positions closer to these defined support and resistance levels to optimize their risk-to-reward ratio.The market subsequently unfolded in line with our expectations. BTC’s price gradually declined, primarily due to a lack of sustained capital inflows from the ETF sector. This downward pressure was further compounded by the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, which reinforced the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rate policy. As a result, expectations for rate cuts were pushed further this year. Over the weekend, BTC found support near the $103,500 level and began to recover, as illustrated by the red trend line on the chart. This red trend line highlights an emerging upward channel characterized by higher highs and higher lows on the 8-hour candlestick chart, signaling a potential bullish momentum shift.On Thursday, bullish sentiment strengthened as BTC once again found support along the red trend line. This positive momentum was supported by the European Central Bank’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut at its June meeting, which eased global liquidity conditions and provided a favorable backdrop for risk assets worldwide. Additionally, US President Donald Trump confirmed that he had accepted an invitation to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping following a 90-minute phone call focused on trade issues. The constructive tone from both parties during this exchange helped lift the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index reaching an intraday high of 5,999.70.However, market optimism was tempered by escalating tensions between Elon Musk and President Trump on social media, raising concerns about political stability in the United States. After Musk publicly opposed Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” President Trump retaliated by threatening to terminate government subsidies and contracts to Musk’s companies. This confrontation led to a sharp 14% decline in Tesla’s stock price within a single day. The negative sentiment spilled over into other asset classes, with BTC dropping 4% to an intraday low of $100,300 and Ethereum (ETH) falling more than 7%, trading below $2,400.As depicted in the chart, the $103,000 level has now shifted to act as a resistance point, while the $100,000 level serves as critical support. Our desk expects BTC to trade within this relatively narrow range as the market awaits further developments in the Musk-Trump dynamic. Should BTC break above the $103,000 resistance swiftly, we anticipate a follow-through rally that could push prices back toward the $106,000 level. Conversely, a decline below the $100,000 support could open the door to a deeper correction, with the next significant support zone lying between $95,000 and $97,000.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.Following the substantial capital inflow into Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) observed last week, the BTC price was unable to sustain its upward momentum. Our desk has since identified a notable net capital outflow from the ETF sector, which contributed to a decline in BTC’s price from $108,000 to $103,500 by Friday. This outflow is particularly significant because it represents a reversal of one of the key drivers behind the recent BTC price rally. We interpret this movement as a classic case of profit-taking by investors, which has introduced selling pressure on BTC and triggered a subsequent price retracement. Such dynamics are common in markets following rapid price appreciation, as investors seek to realize gains and rebalance their portfolios.Looking ahead, we anticipate that capital flows within the ETF sector will continue to be a critical determinant of BTC’s price trajectory. Given the current limited participation from traditional financial institutions in this digital asset class, BTC’s price movements are likely to be more sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment and macroeconomic developments. Our analysis suggests that caution is warranted in the short term, as BTC’s volatility may increasingly reflect broader economic and geopolitical factors. These include ongoing tariff negotiations between major economies and persistent geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which continue to inject uncertainty into global markets.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-05-29)The initial jobless claims in the US increased from 226,000 to 240,000, surpassing the anticipated figure of 229,000. While the US labor market continues to demonstrate resilience, it is beginning to exhibit early signs of a downturn.The projected quarterly growth for US GDP is -0.2%, which is a slight improvement over the earlier estimate of -0.3%.Last Friday (25-05-30)The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to experience an annual growth of 2.1% in May, which is marginally above the predicted 2.0%.In April, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index recorded a 2.1% annual increase, which is slightly below the expected 2.2%. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index achieved a yearly growth of 2.5%, aligning with market forecasts.On Monday (25-06-02)In May, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 52.0, which is marginally lower than the anticipated 52.3 but an improvement over April’s figure of 50.2.Additionally, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was noted at 48.5 in May, falling short of the predicted 49.3.Both manufacturing PMI figures for the US in May did not meet market expectations, suggesting that the adverse effects of tariffs may be beginning to influence the US manufacturing sector.On Tuesday (25-06-03)The Eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to be 1.9% in May, which is below the expected 2.0% and April's figure of 2.2%. Core CPI also experienced a decline from 2.7% in April to 2.3% in May, falling short of the predicted 2.4%. As the CPI indicates a downward trajectory towards the 2% target, the likelihood of an additional rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday rises.In the United States, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings for April, rising from 7.2 million in March to 7.391 million in April, surpassing the forecast of 7.110 million.On Wednesday (25-06-04)The Bank of Canada announced that it will maintain its interest rate at 2.75%, unchanged.In a surprising turn, the US ADP nonfarm employment change fell short of market expectations, reporting only 37,000 new jobs added in the private sector for May, which is significantly below the analyst forecast of 111,000. Following the release of this data, US President Trump called on the Federal Reserve to reduce its interest rate.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

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Top Interest of the Week

Last week, there was significant enthusiasm among investors and traders for Ethereum ($ETH) following the successful rollout of the Pectra upgrade on its network. Over the past week, the price of ETH surged by 16.5%, while Bitcoin (BTC) remained stable in the $102k–$104k range. This substantial influx of capital into ETH was driven by short covering and increased interest from institutional buyers. Given that ETH has lagged behind BTC over the last two years, many short positions have accumulated, and the swift rise in ETH's price compelled those shorting to cover their positions, further elevating the price.World ($WLD), the innovative cryptocurrency initiative led by Sam Altman, has ignited worldwide discussions with its strategy to integrate digital finance and biometric identity via iris scanning. Its recent activities in six major US cities have motivated investors to back this project, anticipating rapid adoption and regulatory compliance in the country.Ether.fi ($ETHFI), a liquid staking and restaking platform on Ethereum, experienced a significant surge as its total value locked reached $6.8 billion. This remarkable growth positioned it as the fourth-biggest player in decentralized finance, following AAVE, Lido, and EigenLayer. Consequently, the network has seen an increase in fees, generating $3.15 million last week, compared to $2.65 million the previous week. Ether.fi is utilizing these earnings to repurchase its tokens, a strategy aimed at bolstering token value.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView

The above chart is the ETH/BTC price in the daily candle chart at a regular scale.In our analysis from last week, we noted that market sentiment was significantly influenced by tariff-related headlines, while robust demand for ETH bolstered its bullish momentum. We expected a notable recovery in the ETH/BTC price following a substantial rally in ETH. On May 12, the US and China issued a joint statement agreeing to significantly reduce tariffs on each other's goods for an initial 90-day period after their meeting in Geneva, Switzerland. This unexpected development has eased a severe trade conflict and positively impacted global markets, generating strong bullish sentiment for risk assets and restoring the US stock market to levels seen before April 2, when President Trump enacted a minimum 10% tariff on all US imports. Additionally, the safe haven asset, Gold, experienced a significant sell-off from its peak, trading below $3,200 per ounce this week.Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated its responsiveness to market risk by leading the US stock market over the weekend, maintaining a strong position above the $100k mark. However, after the US stock market opened on Monday, we observed some profit-taking on BTC as investors shifted their funds to other altcoins. We also noticed a decline in BTC's dominance. The primary factor behind this drop in BTC dominance is the significant price increase of Ethereum (ETH), which once surged to $2,738 on Tuesday, marking a 97% rise from its low of $1,385 on April 9. This swift increase was fueled by FOMO among investors and the covering of short positions. Additionally, the ETH/BTC trading pair exhibited a pronounced upward trend on the daily chart.Our desk expects the upward trend in ETH/BTC to persist over the coming weeks, albeit with a gentler price movement, eventually approaching the red zone indicated on the chart. The RSI indicator points to an overbought condition for ETH/BTC, leading us to predict a period of price consolidation at the current level in the next few days, followed by a gradual increase.Over the next two months, discussions surrounding trade relations between the United States and its global partners, particularly China, are expected to significantly influence market dynamics. Should these negotiations fail to yield positive outcomes, we predict a rise in volatility across global markets. This increased instability is likely to create substantial challenges for cryptocurrencies, which may struggle to maintain their value amidst such fluctuations.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.The inflow tracker table shows a considerable increase in capital entering Bitcoin (BTC) through the exchange-traded fund (ETF) mechanism. In the previous week, the robust demand for BTC ETFs pushed the price above the pivotal $100,000 level. However, the significant decrease in inflows noted on Monday and Tuesday corresponds with our evaluation that short-term investors were selling their holdings and shifting their investments to the US stock market for better upside rewards. Nonetheless, this trend reversed on Wednesday, with net inflows reaching a remarkable $319 million. This strong interest from traditional financial institutions improved the bullish sentiment for BTC, which positively influenced the overall cryptocurrency market.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-05-08)The Bank of England has reduced its interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, in line with market predictions. Governor Andrew Bailey indicated the possibility of further reductions, citing a UK-US agreement aimed at eliminating tariffs on specific goods to enhance trade. This move aligns with economic projections and the central bank's messaging. US initial jobless claims stood at 228,000 for the week, which is lower than the anticipated 231,000, indicating a more robust labor market than expected.Last Friday (25-05-09)In April, Canada saw an increase of 7,400 jobs; however, the unemployment rate rose from 6.7% in March to 6.9% during the same period, slightly exceeding the anticipated rate of 6.8%. This information indicates a mixed performance in the labor market, aligning with observed trends.On Tuesday (25-05-13)The unemployment rate in the UK was reported at 4.5% in March, in line with market expectations, suggesting a stable labor market.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an annual increase of 2.4% in April, as anticipated. The core CPI remained unchanged at an annual growth rate of 2.8%, indicating that inflationary pressures are being managed effectively. This stability could enable the Federal Reserve to uphold its existing policy approach, steering clear of any immediate adjustments to interest rates, as inflation trends are consistent with forecasts.On Wednesday (25-05-14)In April, Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a 2.1% increase year-over-year, a minor decline from March's 2.2%. This trend is consistent with forecasts of slowing inflation within the Eurozone. The reduction in German CPI from 2.2% to 2.1% indicates a cooling of inflation, which is a favorable sign for the Eurozone. Such a development may alleviate the pressure on the European Central Bank to implement stricter monetary policies, thereby aiding economic recovery initiatives.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

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Top Interest of the Week

KAITO is a Web3 information platform that uses artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technology to organize and distribute crypto-related information. KAITO provides real-time, AI-powered insights tailored to the needs of Web3 participants. It also introduces Information Finance (InfoFi), a system where market forces influence the way attention is distributed, aiming for a more transparent and decentralized information economy. $KAITO coin is the native cryptocurrency of the KAITO ecosystem, designed to facilitate governance, market incentives, and value exchange within its AI-powered InfoFi network. In the past seven days, $KAITO posted a 61.4% gain with enlarged trading volume, which could be attributed to its announcement to integrate Huma Finance’s Yapper leaderboard ahead of its TGE.Litecoin ($LTC) is one of the leading crypto projects in the payment sector since 2011. Recently, the SEC postponed their decision on the spot Litecoin ETF that Canary Capital filed, causing the LTC price to rapidly tank from $86 to $82. However, the price of LTC turned north after a short consolidation around the $82 level and shot above $92 with increased volume.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at a log scale.In our analysis last week, we anticipated a healthy retracement for Bitcoin before its next upward movement. Last Thursday, Bitcoin experienced a mini rally, climbing from $94,000 to $97,400 before retesting the $94,000 support level over the weekend. After establishing solid support above $93,500, Bitcoin began its next upward leg, bolstered by a bullish risk environment driven by the initial trade talks between the US and China in Geneva, Switzerland, this week.Cryptocurrencies, as risk-sensitive assets, remain heavily influenced by macroeconomic headlines. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed his first official meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng following President Trump’s imposition of a 125% tariff on Chinese imports. The market interpreted this dialogue as a constructive step toward trade negotiation progress, with analysts seeking further indications of de-escalation and clarity on future outcomes.On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain its interest rate at 4.50%, as widely anticipated. Fed Chair Powell reiterated the "wait and see" approach, highlighting the challenges of achieving the dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices amid the ongoing trade war. He indicated that the Federal Reserve would prioritize its targets based on prevailing conditions. Powell expressed confidence in the US economy, suggesting that the Fed is well-positioned to keep interest rates steady.The Fed's stance is relatively hawkish, leading to a further decline in the probability of a rate cut in June and July. The market currently anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut following the September meeting. Additionally, US President Trump announced on Truth Social that he would unveil details of a major trade deal on Thursday morning Eastern time. While the market speculates that the deal may involve the United Kingdom, specifics remain undisclosed. This announcement has improved risk sentiment, triggering short covering in crypto assets. Bitcoin surged past $99,000, approaching the psychological $100,000 barrier we highlighted last week.Ethereum has demonstrated stronger momentum, with the ETH/BTC pair rebounding from recent lows. Following the successful implementation of the Pectra upgrade on the Ethereum network, we anticipate robust short-term demand for ETH. With Bitcoin dominance at 65%, we expect a shift in the uptrend, allowing altcoins to gain prominence. Given Ethereum's position as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap and having a stronger impact on the crypto market cap dominance, we believe the rise in Ethereum's market cap, driven by its price increase, will reduce Bitcoin's dominance.Our desk maintains a bullish outlook on Bitcoin in the near term, supported by the strong $94,000 level, and anticipates a challenge to the $100,000 barrier soon. We are even more optimistic about Ethereum following the Pectra upgrade, projecting a sharp ETH/BTC rebound in the coming days. This ETH strength is likely to catalyze broader altcoin gains, reducing Bitcoin’s market cap dominance. However, as previously noted, risk sentiment remains highly susceptible to tariff-related headlines, which could shift dramatically if negotiations deteriorate.
Bitcoin ETF Inflow Tracker

The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.This is a new section we have in our weekly commentary. This table helps us monitor the capital inflow data from the Bitcoin spot ETF venue. Following two weeks of substantial net inflows, which saw $3.06 billion for the week ending April 25 and an additional $1.81 billion for the week ending May 2, we witnessed a significant capital influx on Monday. This influx included $425 million invested in Bitcoin spot ETFs. Such a considerable investment in Bitcoin ETFs reflects an increasing interest from traditional finance investors in Bitcoin. This trend suggests a shift in market sentiment towards a more risk-on approach, as investors are increasing their capital allocations to this digital asset. Consequently, this positive momentum has positively impacted the Bitcoin price, which rose from $94,000 to $97,000.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-05-01)The Bank of Japan held its interest rate steady at 0.5%, aligning with market predictions. However, it substantially lowered its economic growth outlook, pointing to U.S. tariffs and sluggish export activity as key constraints on near-term monetary policy flexibility.In the U.S., initial jobless claims climbed to 241,000, up from 223,000 the prior week, surpassing the expected 224,000.The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April came in at 50.2, below the projected 50.7, signalling modest growth.The ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 48.7, outperforming the forecast of 48.0, though it remained below the 50 threshold, indicating continued contraction in the sector.Last Friday (25-05-02)The Eurozone’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth for April is estimated at 2.2%, slightly above the anticipated 2.1%. Core CPI growth is projected at 2.7%, exceeding the expected 2.5%.The Eurozone unemployment rate edged up to 6.2% in March, marginally higher than the forecasted 6.1%.In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls grew by 177,000 jobs in April, well above the predicted 138,000.The U.S. unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, consistent with market expectations.On Monday (25-05-05)The U.S. S&P Global Services PMI for April recorded 50.8, falling short of the expected 51.4 and down from March’s 54.4.In contrast, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in April, topping the forecast of 50.2, reflecting expansion in the services sector.On Wednesday (25-05-07)The Federal Reserve kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, as widely expected. In the subsequent press conference, Chair Powell emphasized a cautious “wait and see” approach, highlighting the difficulty of managing persistent inflation and increasing unemployment, both intensified by elevated tariffs.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: [email protected] for more information.

Join our Telegram Channel (@BinanceOTCTrading) to stay up to date with the markets!

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Top Interest of the Week

Alpaca Finance ($ALPACA) stands out as a lending protocol that facilitates leveraged yield farming on the BNB and Phantom chains. Recently, there was an announcement that the $ALPACA token is being delisted from the exchange, which typically leads to a decline in price as investors sell off their holdings. Contrary to expectations, the price surged by over 1,000% just before the delisting deadline, resulting in significant liquidations of short sellers in both margin and futures trading. This unexpected price movement triggered a wave of FOMO buying among traders and investors. The combination of short covering and FOMO purchases propelled the price even higher, leading to another cycle of short liquidations. The market experienced extreme volatility, prompting traders to utilize our OTC channel to secure prices and mitigate the impact of price swings.Sam Altman's World ($WLD) has officially launched in the U.S., aiming to deploy 7,500 eye-scanning orbs in cities nationwide by year-end. Residents will be able to confirm their identity using this Orb technology and earn WLD tokens in exchange. These tokens are linked to the establishment of a World ID, which the company claims is crucial for distinguishing between genuine humans, AI bots, and digital personas. Additionally, the recent excitement in the AI sector has further fueled investor interest in this project, as it is one of the largest market-cap initiatives in the industry.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at a log scale.In our analysis last week, we anticipated a healthy retracement following a robust breakout, which would serve as confirmation before the next upward move. Contrary to expectations, the market displayed significant upward momentum, with Bitcoin’s price surging past $97,000 after a brief consolidation within a narrow range, as highlighted in the red box on the chart.Our trading desk noted a distinct shift in market sentiment from risk-off to risk-on, triggered by gold reaching an all-time high of $3,500 last week. Subsequently, gold experienced an approximate 8% retracement over nine days, declining to around $3,220. During this period, the U.S. stock market rallied impressively, with the S&P 500 index climbing 8.5% and the Nasdaq index advancing 10.9%. Bitcoin outperformed both, rising from $85,000 to over $97,000—a 14%+ gain. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded nearly 2%, moving from 98.3 to above 100.The primary catalyst for this change in risk sentiment was the U.S. government’s decision to ease tariffs on various goods, signalling a more favourable trade environment. Additionally, the U.S. administration adopted a constructive negotiation stance toward China, further boosting market optimism. President Trump reinforced this confidence by unveiling a series of deregulation proposals and tax cut initiatives aimed at stimulating economic activity and supporting asset prices.Beyond these macroeconomic developments, Bitcoin-specific factors also fueled its price appreciation. Arizona lawmakers took a significant step toward public Bitcoin adoption by passing two bills that permit direct investment of public funds into digital assets. Pending Governor Katie Hobbs’ approval, these bills would allow Arizona’s treasurer to allocate up to 10% of state-managed assets to cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, the legislation establishes a Digital Assets Strategic Reserve Fund to oversee seized crypto assets and future appropriations, incorporating requirements for on-chain auditability and standardized risk management protocols.Another factor contributing to bullish global market sentiment is the increasing likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Following the release of underwhelming private sector job growth data on Wednesday, markets initially dipped but swiftly recovered and pushed higher. Traders are now anticipating four 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025, interpreting the weak labour market figures as a potential trigger for monetary easing. Such a policy shift aligns with the Fed’s dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stabilize prices, particularly if economic growth shows signs of faltering.In summary, the market outlook has turned decidedly bullish, driven by the confluence of factors outlined above. Our desk maintains its stance from last week: we expect a healthy retracement to the $90,000–$91,000 range, potentially dipping to $88,000, before Bitcoin challenges the pivotal $100,000 threshold.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-04-24)The initial jobless claims in the United States continue to be low, with a report of 222,000 last week, consistent with market predictions.Durable goods orders in the US experienced a month-over-month increase of 9.2% in March, significantly surpassing the anticipated 2.1%. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow has revised its projection for a 2.5% contraction in the first quarter of 2025, which is a decline from the earlier estimate of 2.2%.On Monday (25-04-28)The Liberal Party, led by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, has secured victory in the Canadian federal election and will establish a minority government.On Tuesday (25-04-29)In April, US consumer confidence, as measured by the CB index, declined to 86.0, falling short of the anticipated 87.7 and March's figure of 93.9. This decline reflects a growing pessimism among US consumers following the tariffs implemented by the US government. JOLTS job openings decreased to 7.192 million in March, which was below the expected 7.490 million.On Wednesday (25-04-30)In the first quarter, Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced an annual growth of 2.4%, marginally exceeding the anticipated rate of 2.3%. China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell below the neutral threshold, registering at 49.0 in April, which is lower than the expected figure of 49.7. Germany's CPI recorded an annual increase of 2.1% in April, slightly surpassing the forecasted 2.0%. Furthermore, Germany's GDP is expected to contract by 0.2% in the first quarter, which is consistent with market predictions.In April, the US ADP nonfarm employment data indicated that private sector payrolls increased by merely 62,000, marking the lowest rise since July 2024 and significantly falling short of the anticipated 114,000 increase. The US PCE price index recorded a 2.3% year-over-year growth in March, a decrease from 2.7% in February, while the core PCE price index reflected a 2.6% annual growth during the same timeframe, down from 3.0% in February.The US market experienced a rapid decline following unsatisfactory job growth in the private sector, with diminished focus on the PCE price index due to uncertainties regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. Nevertheless, the market recovered all its losses and closed positively, as it now anticipates a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by year-end. The price of gold fell to $3,267, reflecting a 6.7% decrease from its peak of $3,500 marked nine days ago. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remained stable within a narrow range of approximately $93,000 to $94,000.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, the cryptocurrency market demonstrated resilience, with Bitcoin (BTC) regaining the significant $95,000 threshold and altcoins surpassing BTC in performance. Additionally, there was a noticeable shift in global risk appetite, evidenced by declining gold prices and a rise in riskier assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. In the Fan Token market, a surge in trading activity resulted in a 59.5% increase in trading volume, largely fueled by increased interest in the Juventus Fan Token ($JUV). The DeFi sector experienced a 49.3% rise in trading volume, attributed to the strong performance of DeFi projects, with Alpaca Finance ($ALPACA) and LeverFi ($LEVER) being the primary drivers of this growth. Furthermore, the Launchpool sector saw a 39.9% increase in trading volume, predominantly due to robust demand for Sui ($SUI).

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Top Interest of the Week

$MAGIC serves as the governance token for Treasure, a decentralized gaming console platform operating on Arbitrum. The recent surge in this token's value was fueled by the announcement of the team's integration of advanced AI agents capable of playing games. These bots will engage on social media, participate in gaming, accumulate rewards, and even conduct trades through a single, tradable NFT asset. The overarching aim is to create a synergy between AI, gaming, decentralized finance (DeFi), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). New Kind of Network ($NKN) is a cryptocurrency initiative focused on constructing a decentralized internet by enabling bandwidth sharing. In contrast to conventional internet service providers, NKN allows users to connect directly with one another and earn tokens for sharing their unused internet capacity. Its blockchain-based protocol aspires to deliver a quicker and more accessible internet experience. Additionally, NKN is investigating innovative applications, such as secure data relay for decentralized AI inference, in line with the anticipated AI-blockchain convergence of 2025.Turbo represents the intersection of artificial intelligence, speed, and humor. It was launched in a remarkable 69 hours with a mere $69 budget, and it quickly gained notoriety as a meme coin without any developer promotion or influencer support—just a blend of absurdity and rapid growth. The community embraced Turbo's meme-centric approach, sustaining its momentum throughout crypto Twitter. The value of the memecoin endorsed by President Trump, $TRUMP, saw a significant increase on Wednesday, jumping 58% in just one hour, reaching close to the $15 mark for the first time since March. This surge was triggered by the announcement that top token holders would be invited to an exclusive dinner with Trump at his golf club near Washington, D.C., on May 22, where he will share insights on the future of cryptocurrency in a personal setting.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at a log scale.In our analysis last week, we maintained a neutral short-term outlook on Bitcoin (BTC) while adopting a bearish perspective for the next 6 to 12 months. Our research indicated strong resistance in the $91,000 range, where BTC was likely to face selling pressure. Although the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggested an imminent breakout, the direction remained uncertain. Ultimately, the market continued its prior trend following a period of tight range consolidation, underscoring the prevailing volatility.On Monday, the U.S. equity market extended its selloff from the previous week, with the S&P 500 declining by 3% intraday. Despite this downturn, BTC demonstrated remarkable resilience against the U.S. dollar, buoyed in part by the dollar’s weakening. This divergence in performance suggests that BTC is increasingly being perceived as a safe haven asset, akin to gold, particularly during periods of heightened market uncertainty.The shift in market sentiment was further catalyzed by remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Tuesday, who indicated that the ongoing tariff conflict with China is unsustainable. Additionally, President Trump’s statement that tariffs on China would be "reduced significantly" but not eliminated was interpreted as a potential de-escalation signal. This news triggered a bullish reversal in risk assets, propelling BTC above the $91,000 resistance level and transforming it into a support zone. The price surged to nearly $95,000, driven by short position liquidations and fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors.However, the bullish momentum has since waned, as the market lacks further clarity on U.S.-China trade relations. While the U.S. administration’s remarks spurred significant capital inflows into BTC ETFs, boosting the price temporarily, our desk believes this rally may be short-lived without concrete progress on tariff reductions. Currently, BTC is trading above our highlighted support range of $91,000 to $92,000. Based on our technical analysis, BTC may enter a consolidation phase, potentially retesting the $88,000 level before any sustained upward movement. The recent price action, marked by a breakout above $91,000, could signal further gains if BTC holds above this level. A decisive break above $95,000 would likely attract additional buying interest, while failure to maintain support at $91,000 could lead to a deeper correction.Despite the short-term rally, our desk remains bearish on BTC over the next 6 to 12 months. Historical precedent suggests that President Trump’s tariff policies are unlikely to yield swift resolutions, particularly with China. The absence of disclosed trade agreements with any U.S. trading partners further reinforces this view. We believe the market may have overinterpreted the administration’s comments on tariff reductions, and without tangible progress, the recent bullish sentiment could reverse.Our desk is closely tracking several key developments that could shift our outlook:National Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: If other nations follow the U.S. in establishing Bitcoin reserves, this could signal a structural bullish catalyst for BTC.Trade Deal Agreements: Successful negotiations within the 90-day tariff pause could alleviate recession fears and support risk assets.Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: Any indication of monetary easing, such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing, would likely provide a bullish tailwind for BTC and other risk assets.Despite BTC demonstrating short-term resilience in the face of a declining dollar and changing market attitudes, we maintain a cautious long-term perspective. The future trajectory is closely tied to geopolitical developments and the actions of central banks. Without significant progress on trade negotiations or accommodative monetary policy, we expect ongoing fluctuations and possible downward pressure on BTC in the months ahead.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-04-17)The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, a move that was widely expected by the market. In its accompanying policy statement, the ECB emphasized the weakened growth outlook due to ongoing trade tensions.Initial jobless claims in the United States have continued to decline, with last week's figures showing 215,000 claims, which is below the anticipated 225,000.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Index for April was unexpectedly reported at -26.4, a significant deviation from the forecasted 2.2.On Tuesday (25-04-22)In April, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported by the Bank of Japan experienced a growth of 2.2%, which fell short of the anticipated 2.4%.On Wednesday (25-04-23)The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach an unexpected 50.7 in April, significantly surpassing the anticipated 49.0 and March's figure of 50.2.Conversely, the S&P Global Services PMI is forecasted to be 51.4, which is below the predicted 52.8 and March's 54.4.New home sales in the US for March are reported at 724,000, exceeding the forecast of 684,000 and February's total of 674,000.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Recently, cryptocurrencies demonstrated remarkable resilience as stock markets experienced declines amid rising tariffs. The market sentiment improved following the speeches given by US Treasury Secretary Bessent and President Trump, who downplayed the tariff issues with China. This positive outlook sparked renewed investor interest in the crypto market, particularly in gaming and NFT-related tokens, as projects in these areas increasingly incorporate AI technology. In the Gaming sector, there was a significant surge in trading activity, resulting in a 309.2% increase in trading volume, largely fueled by growing interest in Voxies ($VOXEL) and Treasure ($MAGIC), as highlighted in our <Top Interest of the Week> section. Meanwhile, the Metaverse sector also saw a substantial rise in trading volume, which increased by 300.1% last week, driven primarily by strong demand for Treasure ($MAGIC).

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

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Top Interest of the Week

Mantra ($OM) is a blockchain ecosystem designed to bridge the gap between traditional finance and decentralized technology. In February, the project team increased the total supply of OM from 888,888,888 to 1,777,777,777, minting the new OM coins directly on the MANTRA Chain. This adjustment in tokenomics raised significant concerns in the market, and a 90% drop occurred over the weekend following substantial transfers from wallets associated with the Mantra team and its investors to exchanges.Orca ($ORCA) stands out as one of the pioneering general-purpose automated market makers (AMMs) on the Solana network. It allows users to swap assets, provide liquidity, and earn yields through a user-friendly interface. Recently, Orca's trading volume has exceeded that of Raydium ($RAY), making it the most active DeFi platform within the Solana ecosystem.StakeStone, a DeFi platform that provides decentralized liquidity infrastructure, has initiated a new partnership with Sei Network ($SEI), an advanced Layer 1 blockchain aimed at enhancing DeFi applications and trading. This collaboration seeks to integrate StakeStone's cutting-edge omnichain liquid staking infrastructure with Sei's parallel-executing and high-speed environment. Additionally, the crypto project World Liberty Financial (WIFI), which was backed by the Trump family, has acquired more SEI tokens for its portfolio, prompting interest from investors.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at a log scale.In our analysis last week, we maintained a neutral short-term outlook on Bitcoin (BTC) while adopting a bearish perspective for the next 6 to 12 months. This long-term bearish view was strengthened by BTC's failure to break through the $91,000 resistance level in March, along with the negative effects of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on risk assets. We will consider a more optimistic outlook only when the Federal Reserve indicates the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) phase and starts to ease monetary policy. However, recent events—especially the ongoing tariff headlines and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious approach to rate cuts—have reinforced our bearish stance, aligning with our assessment from last week.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released last Thursday showed a slowdown in the inflation rate in the U.S., indicating a possible reduction in price pressures. However, this information is based on previous economic conditions and does not reflect the inflationary threats stemming from current U.S. trade policies. The tariffs enacted by the Trump administration are expected to intensify inflationary pressures shortly by raising the costs of imported goods. Additionally, the rising trade conflicts between the U.S. and its trading partners have created considerable uncertainty in global markets, leading investors to shift from riskier assets to safe-haven assets. This shift is exemplified by gold reaching a historic peak of $3,357 on Wednesday, highlighting the trend towards safety amid rising geopolitical and economic challenges.On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell gave a speech highlighting the Federal Reserve's desire for clearer economic indicators before making any changes to monetary policy. This hawkish stance, which suggests a hesitance to lower interest rates too soon, heightened market anxieties, resulting in a significant drop in U.S. stock prices after his remarks. In contrast to the overall risk-averse mood, Bitcoin (BTC) showed remarkable strength, maintaining solid support around the $83,300 mark. This unexpected stability in BTC's value is likely linked to the weakening U.S. dollar, as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 4% following President Trump’s detailed tariff announcements. A declining dollar typically enhances BTC's attractiveness as an alternative store of value, offering a temporary counterbalance to the prevailing bearish trends.While Bitcoin (BTC) has shown resilience in the short term, our analysis suggests that this support is fragile and contingent on forthcoming bullish catalysts to sustain any upward momentum. The recent price action in BTC mirrors patterns observed in February, characterized by multiple long upside wicks on daily candles and price consolidation within a narrow range. This technical formation, coupled with a descending channel, suggests that resistance levels are progressively lowering, signalling potential weakness. Unless significant bullish developments emerge, such as a resolution to trade tensions or a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve, we anticipate that BTC will retest the $82,500 support band in the near future. Should BTC break above the $86,000 resistance, it could regain upward momentum and aim for the $91,000 resistance level. However, in the absence of such a breakout, we remain cautious and expect continued downward pressure on BTC's price in the upcoming days.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-04-10)In March, the US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a 0.1% decline, contrary to the anticipated 0.1% rise, leading to a decrease in annualized inflation from 2.8% in February to 2.4% in March. The core CPI also showed a lower-than-expected performance, registering a 2.8% annualized growth rate for March. However, this inflation data reflects past trends and does not account for the significant recent shifts in US trade policy. The market is anticipating an uptick in inflation in the upcoming months and is on the lookout for indicators of a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's stance.Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 223,000, aligning with market expectations.Last Friday (25-04-11)UK GDP experienced a monthly increase of 0.5%, surpassing the anticipated growth of 0.1%.In Germany, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to decelerate, showing a monthly growth rate of 0.3% in March, which corresponds to an annual growth rate of 2.2%. Both figures are slightly below those recorded in February.In the United States, the Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a monthly decrease of 0.4% in March, contrary to the expected growth of 0.2%. Additionally, the core PPI also fell by 0.1%, diverging from the forecasted increase of 0.3%.The Michigan 5-year inflation expectation for April is estimated at 4.4%, while the 1-year inflation expectation is projected to reach 6.7%, marking the highest level since 1981. This forecast is considerably above the 5% inflation prediction made in March.On Tuesday (25-04-15)Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a monthly rise of 0.3% in March, falling short of the anticipated 0.7%. Meanwhile, the core CPI recorded a monthly increase of 0.1% for the same month, down from 0.7% in February.On Wednesday (25-04-16)In March, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a monthly increase of 0.3%, a slight decline from the 0.4% growth recorded in February. Year-over-year, the CPI growth rate fell from 2.8% in February to 2.6% in March. Similarly, the Eurozone's CPI reported an annual growth of 2.2% in March, down from 2.3% in February. The core CPI also showed a decrease, with an annual growth rate of 2.4%, compared to 2.6% in the previous month.In the United States, retail sales continued to rise, posting a monthly growth of 1.4% in March, surpassing the anticipated 1.3% increase. Core retail sales also exceeded expectations, recording a 0.5% monthly growth against a forecast of 0.4%.The Bank of Canada has decided to keep its interest rate unchanged at 2.75%.Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that the Fed would await further clarity on the economic outlook before making any decisions regarding interest rates.Following Powell's speech, market sentiment turned negative as the likelihood of a rate cut in May decreased further. The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq index falling by more than 4% intraday. In contrast, Bitcoin showed its resilience, finding robust support at $83,200.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. The cryptocurrency market exhibited a strong correlation with the fluctuations of the US stock market, significantly influenced by developments related to tariffs. Recent data from the US CPI suggested a possible moderation in inflation rates, which typically would encourage a more optimistic outlook among investors. However, despite this potentially favourable information, market participants remained cautious. They were particularly focused on the likelihood of a policy shift from the Federal Reserve, understanding that any substantial positive sentiment in the market would likely depend on such changes being implemented. In the Megadrop sector, robust demand for trading led to a 135.3% increase in trading volume, primarily driven by heightened interest in Lista DAO ($LISTA).In the RWA sector, trading volume rose by 54.5% last week, largely propelled by strong market demand for Mantra ($OM).

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: [email protected] for more information.

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Top Interest of the Week

The SuperRare platform, recognized for its NFT marketplace, has transitioned to a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) model, allowing users to take a more significant role in managing and selecting artists. The governance token, SuperRARE ($RARE), empowers holders to participate in the platform's decision-making processes. On April 3rd, SuperRare unveiled its own art gallery in New York City, resulting in a 40% surge in the value of its governance token, $RARE, reflecting strong investor enthusiasm for the initiative. Usual ($USUAL) is a decentralized issuer of fiat stablecoins, aiming to transform access to Real-World Assets (RWAs) within the cryptocurrency and decentralized finance (DeFi) sectors. By utilizing blockchain technology, Usual develops financial products that emphasize transparency, decentralization, and fair value distribution.MANTRA ($OM) is a blockchain ecosystem that seeks to connect traditional finance with decentralized technology. It specializes in the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWAs), allowing users to digitize, trade, and manage both physical and financial assets securely, efficiently, and in compliance with regulations. MANTRA Chain has recently announced the establishment of the MANTRA Ecosystem Fund (MEF), a $108.8 million investment initiative aimed at fostering the growth and adoption of projects within the MANTRA ecosystem.The RWA sector has recently seen increased activity, with our desk observing strong flows in projects like $USUAL and $OM.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.Last week, our analysis took a pessimistic view for the short term, anticipating a transition to a more optimistic perspective if the Federal Reserve decides to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth. This forecast is consistent with past actions taken by the Fed in response to weakening economic signals, including easing inflation or slowing growth, trends that recent data has started to indicate.The escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China, marked by increased tariffs on imports, led to a significant drop in global risk assets. On Monday, the S&P 500 index fell to an intraday low of 4,835, representing a 21.35% decline from its peak of 6,147 reached on February 19. This downturn had a ripple effect on international equity markets, resulting in substantial sell-offs in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The cryptocurrency market also reflected this negative trend, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to a low of $74,500 and Ethereum (ETH) falling to $1,411, highlighting a widespread risk-averse attitude.As we pointed out in our commentary on March 13, risk assets often show a tendency to decline before the implementation of tariffs, followed by brief recoveries shortly after. However, these temporary rallies have consistently failed to reverse the overall downward trajectory. This pattern was evident again on April 9, when new US tariffs on imports came into effect, and the market initially opened with a slight increase, in line with historical trends.During the session, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all nations except China. This news triggered a rapid and significant shift in market sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook. The S&P 500 finished the day with a 9.5% increase, while Bitcoin surged over 9% to an intraday high of $83,400, driven by a notable short squeeze. A short squeeze occurs when a rapid increase in the price of a heavily shorted asset forces short sellers to buy back shares to cover their positions, further driving up the price. This incident underscores the market's responsiveness to geopolitical developments.This trend mirrors a previous short squeeze on March 2, when President Trump announced intentions to add several altcoins to the US strategic crypto reserve. This news led to a 9% surge in Bitcoin, pushing its price to $95,000, although these gains were completely reversed after 24 hours. Such instances highlight the capacity of high-profile political actions to temporarily disrupt market dynamics. However, over extended timeframes, markets tend to revert to levels dictated by underlying fundamentals, tempering short-term enthusiasm.As the ongoing tariff conflict is primarily between the US and China, our desk is closely monitoring the situation and providing timely analysis of its effects on the cryptocurrency market. We have taken a neutral position on Bitcoin, as its price has stabilized within our previously established support range of $73,000 to $76,000. This zone is technically robust, underpinned by key moving averages and historical consolidation levels, suggesting resilient buying interest. While BTC may test this support in the near term, we anticipate it will hold as a critical floor.At the same time, our desk is carefully observing the US 10-year Treasury yield and any potential liquidity-boosting actions from the Federal Reserve. A drop in yields or signs of upcoming rate cuts could serve as a catalyst for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. If the Fed indicates an early rate cut or implements quantitative easing, we see this as a possible inflection point that could trigger a significant rebound in both traditional risk assets and the cryptocurrency market.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-04-03)US initial jobless claims were reported at 219,000, which is below the anticipated figure of 225,000. This indicates that the US labour market remains strong, as evidenced by the low number of new unemployment claims. However, continuing jobless claims reached 1,903,000 last week, surpassing the expected 1,860,000. This trend suggests that while companies are not laying off employees, they may be implementing hiring freezes. Should economic conditions deteriorate due to tariffs, the market anticipates an increase in layoffs and a rapid decline in labour market conditions.The S&P Global Services PMI was recorded at 54.4 in March, slightly above the forecast of 54.3. Conversely, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, falling short of the predicted 53.0. Given that the ISM non-manufacturing PMI covers a broader range of industries, it reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook among purchasing managers regarding the future business climate.Last Friday (25-04-04)In March, the US nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 jobs, greatly exceeding the expected total of 137,000. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% for the month, which matched market predictions. At the same time, the unemployment rate saw a minor uptick, moving from 4.1% in February to 4.2% in March. Given the favourable state of the US labour market, analysts expect that the Federal Reserve will hold off on rate cuts until June.On Wednesday (25-04-09)The Reserve Bank of India has reduced its interest rate from 6.25% to 6.00%, aligning with market expectations. Effective midnight local time on April 9, the United States will implement tariffs on all its trading partners. In response, China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 84% on U.S. goods after President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese products to over 100%.During the trading session, President Trump announced that he set new tariff rates for imports from most U.S. trading partners at 10% for a period of 90 days to facilitate trade negotiations while imposing a 125% tariff on Chinese goods. Following this announcement, market sentiment shifted dramatically, with the S&P 500 index rising by 9.52% and the NASDAQ index increasing by 12.16%. Bitcoin's price surged past $83,000, marking a 9% increase, while MicroStrategy's stock price jumped by 24.7%.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, the Real World Assets (RWA) sector emerged as a key player in driving growth in trading volume on the Convert platform. Our team also observed significant trading activity in the Liquid Staking and Monitoring sectors, indicating a healthy interest in these areas. Even though the market sentiment was bearish over the weekend, several altcoins managed to perform remarkably well, which in turn stimulated strong trading demand within the sector. This resilience highlights the dynamic nature of the market and the potential for growth even in challenging conditions.In the RWA sector, robust demand for trading led to a 41.0% increase in trading volume, primarily driven by heightened interest in Usual ($USUAL) and MANTRA ($OM).In the Liquid Staking sector, trading volume rose by 37.3% last week, largely propelled by strong market demand on Binance Staked SOL ($BNSOL).

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: [email protected] for more information.

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Access Binance OTC desk on the VIP Portal
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Top Interest of the Week

PAX Gold ($PAXG) is a stablecoin backed by physical gold, issued by Paxos. Amid the heightened uncertainty stemming from the global trade war, investors turned to PAXG tokens to gain exposure to gold. Despite a downturn in the broader cryptocurrency market due to increased risks, PAXG achieved a new all-time high of $3,195 on exchanges, while the PAXG/BTC trading pair also hit a four-month peak. This surge was driven by robust demand for this safe-haven asset within the crypto space for tactical portfolio allocation.First Digital USD ($FDUSD), a USD-pegged stablecoin issued by First Digital Trust, encountered negative sentiment when Justin Sun, the founder of Tron, alleged that the issuer was effectively insolvent and unable to return funds to customers. Following Sun's initial post on X, the price of $FDUSD plummeted to $0.8726 USDT. However, it gradually recovered to 0.99 USDT after the issuer addressed the allegations. Both parties held press conferences, which helped restore market confidence, leading to $FDUSD trading around the 0.9950 USDT mark.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView

The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.Our analysis from the previous week suggested that Bitcoin's price is expected to fluctuate between $80,000 and $90,000. We also raised concerns regarding the impending reciprocal tariffs introduced by President Trump.Last Friday, the core PCE price index exceeded expectations, leading to market concerns about the Federal Reserve's strategy for interest rate cuts in 2025. With persistent inflation in the US and the potential effects of tariffs on prices, the market has reduced the probability of a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve this year. While tariffs may also affect consumer spending and indirectly decrease demand for goods and services, potentially leading to a reduction in inflation, the numerous variables involved make it difficult to ascertain the extent of their negative impact on inflation.On Wednesday afternoon, Bitcoin ($BTC) experienced a remarkable surge, surpassing the $89,000 mark following President Trump's announcement that universal tariffs would be set at 10% instead of the previously proposed 20%. However, this upward momentum was short-lived as the market quickly reversed direction after additional information regarding reciprocal tariffs came to light. Following the press conference, BTC experienced a sharp decline, dropping below $83,000, which coincided with a more than 2% decrease in the S&P 500 index after market close.Our analysis suggests that the market's initial reaction to the decline in risk assets was expected. We anticipate that this downward trend will continue for an extended period as other countries develop their responses to the tariffs imposed by the United States.Historically, the United States has employed tariffs to shield domestic industries from foreign competition, a strategy prominently utilized during the early years of the Great Depression. A defining example is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which dramatically increased tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods. Signed into law by President Herbert Hoover, this legislation aimed to protect American farmers and manufacturers struggling amid the economic downturn that began with the stock market crash of 1929. However, the policy backfired spectacularly. Rather than bolstering the U.S. economy, it provoked swift retaliation from 25 trading partners, including Canada and several European nations, who imposed their own tariffs on American goods. This tit-for-tat escalation triggered a severe contraction in international trade, with global trade plummeting by approximately 66% between 1929 and 1934. According to our analysis, we expect that other nations will initially respond to the newly imposed U.S. tariffs by implementing their own tariffs on American products. This is likely to initiate a negotiation phase between the United States and these countries. Through this process, the U.S. has the opportunity to redefine the global trade landscape and enhance its position within it. If negotiations proceed favorably and the U.S. secures its objectives, we anticipate a shift in market sentiment towards a more risk-on attitude. However, this process may take several months and could potentially reverse. Currently, our outlook remains bearish for the near term, with a shift to a bullish stance anticipated only after the Federal Reserve intervenes and announces interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-03-27)In the fourth quarter of 2024, core PCE prices in the United States increased by 2.6%, which is slightly below the anticipated 2.7% but an increase from the 2.2% recorded in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve implemented a 50 basis point rate cut last September, followed by two rate cuts of 25 basis points each after.The US GDP experienced a quarterly growth of 2.4% in Q4 of last year, surpassing the expected growth rate of 2.3%.Initial jobless claims in the US continue to remain low, with a report of 224,000 claims last week.Last Friday (25-03-28)UK GDP experienced a quarterly growth of 0.1% in the last quarter, aligning with market forecasts. The annual growth rate increased to 1.5% in Q4, up from 0.9% in Q3.In the US, the PCE price index recorded a year-over-year increase of 2.5% in February, meeting market expectations. However, the core PCE price index rose by 2.8% annually, surpassing the anticipated 2.7%. This indicates that inflation in the US remains persistent, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain the current interest rate for an extended period while awaiting a decline in inflation towards its 2% target.On Monday (25-03-31)China's manufacturing PMI for March was reported at 50.5, surpassing the anticipated 50.4 and February's figure of 50.2. Despite the challenges posed by US tariffs on Chinese exports, the manufacturing PMI indicates that the Chinese economy is experiencing a phase of expansion.On Tuesday (25-04-01)The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained its interest rate at 4.1%, unchanged. Governor Bullock indicated that the central bank is prepared to take action in response to the uncertainties stemming from the escalated trade war. In the Eurozone, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to show an annual increase of 2.2% in March, while core CPI is expected to rise by 2.4% annually. This inflation data implies that the European Union is in a better position than the Federal Reserve in achieving the 2% inflation target, potentially enabling the European Central Bank to implement monetary policy adjustments more swiftly.In the United States, job openings reported in the JOLTS survey decreased from 7.762 million in January to 7.568 million in February, falling short of the market forecast of 7.690 million.On Wednesday (25-04-02)The US ADP nonfarm employment report indicates that 155,000 new jobs were created in March, surpassing the anticipated 118,000. President Donald Trump announced that the US will implement a 10% universal tariff on all imports beginning April 5. This initial rate will be succeeded by higher "reciprocal" tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% on goods from 60 countries starting April 9.Initially, the risk market experienced a surge following the announcement of the 10% universal tariff, as expectations had been set for a 20% tariff. However, once the specifics of the reciprocal tariffs were revealed, all risk assets plummeted. Bitcoin fell to $82,500, while Ethereum dropped below the $1,800 mark.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index surpassed market expectations, raising concerns among investors about the Federal Reserve's potential tightening of monetary policy. The tariffs imposed by the US government have sparked forecasts of a rising inflation rate in the near future. Following the release of the unexpectedly high core PCE price index last Friday, risk assets faced a downturn. Justin Sun, the founder of Tron ($TRX), took to social media to assert that First Digital Trust, a stablecoin issuer, was essentially insolvent, which played a role in the de-pegging of $FDUSD.In the Other sector, robust demand for trading led to a 13.7% increase in trading volume, primarily driven by heightened interest in FUNToken ($FUN) and the stablecoin First Digital USD ($FDUSD).In the Payments sector, trading volume rose by 8.5% last week, largely propelled by market enthusiasm for Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ripple ($XRP).In the Proof of Work (POW) sector, trading volume experienced a 4.1% increase, primarily attributed to the demand for Bitcoin ($BTC).

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

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Top Interest of the Week

Orca ($ORCA), a leading decentralized exchange on the Solana network, experienced a remarkable 270% surge in its price within just one day. This spike was accompanied by a trading volume that surpassed 180% of its market capitalization, highlighting strong trading interest in the token. Over the last two years, both the trading volume and the total value locked (TVL) in the Orca protocol have consistently grown, attracting the attention of investors.In contrast, Bounce ($AUCTION) has faced notable price volatility in the past two weeks. A whale investor began purchasing $AUCTION when its price was below $20 and later withdrew 2 million AUCTION from the exchange, resulting in a significant reduction in supply. Following this withdrawal, the price of $AUCTION soared to over $60. The whale then returned the asset to the exchange to secure profits. Amid this fluctuating trading landscape, demand for the token through over-the-counter (OTC) transactions has surged.Sui ($SUI), a layer-1 blockchain utilizing the Move smart contract programming language, was one of the top performers in terms of price last year. Recently, $SUI experienced a 10.3% increase in value, driven by news of Canary Capital's application to launch a spot crypto ETF for Sui.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.Our analysis from the previous week indicated that the price of BTC is likely to keep oscillating between the upper level of 90k and the lower level of 77k. While the overall risk sentiment has improved following the Federal Reserve's scaleback on its quantitative tightening measures, concerns about the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US government persist. As shown in the chart above, BTC is on an upward trajectory within its upward channel. However, our team has noticed some signs of weakness in the bullish momentum. Following an initial surge in price due to the QT scaleback, the market failed to maintain that momentum on Thursday, resulting in a drop from $87k to $83.6k. After a relatively quiet weekend, buyers began to push the price up again on Monday morning in Asia. Unfortunately, significant sell orders were positioned just above the $88,500 mark, which gradually decreased to $87,800 over three days. Our analysis revealed that BTC has been forming lower highs and lower lows since being rejected at the $88,500 level.With the effective date for the tariffs approaching on April 2, we expect the risk sentiment to remain neutral, leading BTC to continue its sideways movement until there are notable developments on the macroeconomic front.Our analysis indicates that the cryptocurrency sector is currently experiencing a period of stagnation, with the prices of Bitcoin and other crypto assets being significantly affected by broader macroeconomic conditions. However, there is a silver lining: the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is actively working to resolve a number of lawsuits involving various crypto-related projects and companies, which could pave the way for a more stable environment. Furthermore, the U.S. Senate has recently taken a significant step by voting 70-28 to repeal a controversial IRS regulation that would have required decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms to collect and report taxpayer information, easing some regulatory burdens on the industry. Looking to the future, we remain optimistic about the cryptocurrency landscape and expect to see continued innovations. In particular, we are excited about the potential for advancements in real-world assets (RWAs) and decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN), which we believe will be pivotal in driving the next wave of innovation.

Options Market

The above chart is the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC options with various tenors.Following the Federal Reserve's recent decision to reduce its quantitative tightening measures, we have observed a notable decline in implied volatilities (IVs) across multiple time frames. This decrease in IVs indicates the market is pricing a relatively stable period on BTC price after the dot plot suggests that the officials remain with two rate cuts in 2025. Currently, the IVs for options expiring in both 7 days and 30 days have reached their lowest points in the last four months. Our team is confident that this market environment offers a prime opportunity for options traders to consider long volatility positions, enabling them to capitalize on the advantageous conditions that have arisen. Options traders can deploy straddle and strangle strategies to trade on volatility while being delta-neutral.Our Option RFQ platform empowers traders to seize these opportunities with ease and efficiency. Offering a wide array of strategies—from vanilla call and put options to advanced plays like Call Spreads, Put Spreads, Calendar Spreads, Diagonal Spreads, Straddles, and Strangles—the platform delivers competitive pricing and seamless execution. Its intuitive interface lets you pick your instrument and get an instant quote, simplifying the process and enabling you to act swiftly on market conditions. Whether you’re hedging or speculating, this tool enhances your ability to navigate the options market with confidence.Binance users can access our Options RFQ platform via: https://www.binance.com/en/vip-portal/OTC-trading-platform?ref=OTC-OptionFor more details, you can also check the FAQ page for Options RFQ: https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/detail/6d3a80c6574f482eb45457eac64bbff6

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-03-20)The Bank of England decided to keep its interest rate at 4.50% during its March meeting, a move that was widely expected by market participants. In its announcement, the central bank voiced worries about the UK economy grappling with uncertainties tied to global trade and the risk of domestic stagnation.In the United States, initial jobless claims for the previous week stood at 223,000, with the prior figure adjusted upward from 220,000 to 221,000. This information indicates that the US labour market continues to show a degree of stability.On Monday (25-03-24)The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US is expected to reach 49.8 in March, significantly below the anticipated 51.9 and February's figure of 52.7. In contrast, the S&P Global Services PMI is forecasted at 54.3, well above the predicted 51.2 and February's 51.0. The robust Services PMI indicates that the US economy remains in a strong position, easing concerns about a potential recession.On Tuesday (25-03-25)The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bank of Japan indicates an annual increase of 2.2%, consistent with the figure reported in February.In March, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9, down from 100.1 in February. This result was below the anticipated 94.2, implying a decline in consumer confidence among US citizens regarding their spending habits. Such a trend may result in decreased market demand, potentially alleviating inflationary pressures in the United States.On Wednesday (25-03-26)In February, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a monthly increase of 0.4%, slightly below the anticipated 0.5%. This resulted in an annual growth rate of 2.8%, which is lower than the expected inflation rate of 3.0%. The decline in the inflation rate has eased some of the Bank of England's concerns, raising the possibility of a rate cut by the BoE later this year. US durable goods orders are expected to show a monthly growth of 0.9% in February, an improvement compared to the predicted 1.1% decline.Later this week, attention in the market will turn to the US PCE price index data scheduled for release on Friday. This information is crucial for the Federal Reserve as it assesses inflation, significantly influencing the probability of interest rate cuts by the Fed later this year.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a rebound, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $85,000 and Solana (SOL) surpassing $140. There was significant trading interest in Binance Coin (BNB) and tokens within the BNB ecosystem, particularly DEX tokens, in the week before. Last week, the focus of the market shifted back to meme trading on the Solana network, which increased demand for Solana ($SOL) and DEX tokens associated with its ecosystem.In the Solana sector, robust trading demand resulted in a 67.3% increase in trading volume. Our desk observed a general uptick in volume for tokens within the Solana sector, with Orca ($ORCA) experiencing heightened demand last week following a price surge.In the Metaverse sector, trading volume surged by 49.9% last week, primarily driven by market interest in BurgerCities ($BURGER). The price of $BURGER experienced significant volatility, including a sharp decline of 74.1%.In the DeFi sector, trading volume rose by 30.0%, largely attributed to the strong demand for Orca ($ORCA).

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 
Email: [email protected] for more information.
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Top Interest of the Week

API3 is a decentralized Oracle platform that links on-chain decentralized applications (dApps) with trustworthy external data sources, utilizing its native ERC-20 token, API3 ($API3). As an oracle protocol, it ensures that its data feeds are both verifiable and resistant to tampering, thereby facilitating the operation of smart contracts across various Ethereum and Ethereum-compatible platforms. What sets API3 apart is its integrated protection against maximal extractable value (MEV), ensuring that dApps utilizing the platform receive compensation. At its essence, the oracle allows for the automatic extraction of oracle extractable value (OEV)—a specific category of MEV—by optimizing the batching of oracle updates. Recently, Moonwell made the decision to transition from Chainlink to API3 for all its markets.The native cryptocurrency of The Open Network layer-1 blockchain, Toncoin ($TON), experienced a significant rise following a modification in the bail conditions of Telegram's CEO and co-founder, Pavel Durov, which permits him to travel from France to Dubai. French authorities have provided Durov with temporary clearance to exit the country, easing the limitations imposed on him amid an ongoing criminal investigation. As a result of this positive development, the price of TON jumped by 34.7% over the past week, accompanied by a 52.1% increase in trading volume driven by robust market demand.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView

The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.Our analysis from last week revealed that the $76k level serves as a support point for the market. Although BTC is trading within a downward channel, it has shown resilience against further declines. This suggests that the market was oversold and that bearish sentiment was unable to drive prices lower. However, as we previously mentioned, there are potential challenges for crypto assets, especially with the tariffs the US administration may implement starting April 2. Therefore, we expect the short-term BTC movements to be a rebound instead of a V-shape reverse.Over the weekend, a trader opened a $500 million short position on BTC with 40x leverage on Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange. This position, which had a narrow liquidation threshold, generated significant discussion on social media, with several KOLs attempting to target the trader's liquidation price. Nevertheless, the BTC price remained capped at the $85k mark, enabling the trader to close the position with a $6 million profit. This situation suggests the weakness on the BTC long side remains.On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve opted to maintain interest rates while signaling two potential rate cuts in the future, as shown in the dot plot. Additionally, it announced a reduction in its quantitative tightening program, lowering the monthly redemption pace of Treasury bonds from $25 billion to $5 billion. This easing of quantitative tightening is anticipated to improve liquidity, which should positively impact risk assets, particularly BTC and other cryptocurrencies that are highly sensitive to changes in global liquidity.Our analysis, however, indicates that the market may have been too optimistic regarding the Federal Reserve's improvements in global liquidity and the anticipated number of rate cuts this year. We believe that the current bullish sentiment is likely to be short-lived, and the market dominated by bearish sentiment for BTC and the broader crypto market is expected to continue over the next few months.The Fed officials have adjusted their core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% last December to 2.8% in March for the end of 2025, which is 80 basis points above the 2% inflation target. Additionally, 18 out of 19 officials acknowledge that inflation risks are skewed to the upside. Furthermore, US inflation may increase due to new tariffs imposed by the administration. While Fed Chair Powell mentioned that the impact of tariffs on inflation is uncertain and could be "transitory", the likelihood of rising inflation is becoming more pronounced. If inflation in the US does not decrease, we may not witness two interest rate cuts in 2025, and monetary policy could remain somewhat restrictive.On a more positive note, we observe a temporary bullish reversal in the daily RSI for BTC. The price movement on Wednesday, following the Fed's interest rate decision, allowed the BTC daily RSI to break through its downward trend line. If the RSI continues to rise, it may indicate that BTC's price could stabilize between the two red bars shown in the chart, awaiting an improvement in market sentiment.

Options Market

The above chart is the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC and ETH options.Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement on Wednesday, cryptocurrency prices experienced an uptick, leading to a shift in the anticipated volatility for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options. The implied volatility (IV) for a 180-day BTC option is 9% higher compared to a 7-day option, indicating a steepening volatility curve. In contrast, the 180-day IV for ETH is just 5.2% higher than the 7-day IV, suggesting a flattening curve.When comparing options with the same expiration, BTC options exhibit an IV that is over 10% lower than that of ETH options across all durations. Traders can capitalize on this by purchasing BTC straddles while simultaneously selling ETH straddles that share the same expiration dates and notional values. This strategy mitigates directional risk (delta) and allows traders to take advantage of the IV disparity while minimizing other risks.For traders who foresee a rise in BTC but expect resistance around the $91,000 mark, a long call spread can be an effective strategy. This involves buying a call option at a lower strike price and selling another at a higher strike price. This approach not only offers the potential for profit but also does so at a lower cost by utilizing the premium gained from the sold call option.
Our Option RFQ platform empowers traders to seize these opportunities with ease and efficiency. Offering a wide array of strategies—from vanilla call and put options to advanced plays like Call Spreads, Put Spreads, Calendar Spreads, Diagonal Spreads, Straddles, and Strangles—the platform delivers competitive pricing and seamless execution. Its intuitive interface lets you pick your instrument and get an instant quote, simplifying the process and enabling you to act swiftly on market conditions. Whether you’re hedging or speculating, this tool enhances your ability to navigate the options market with confidence.Binance users can access our Options RFQ platform via: https://www.binance.com/en/vip-portal/OTC-trading-platform?ref=OTC-OptionFor more details, you can also check the FAQ page for Options RFQ: https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/detail/6d3a80c6574f482eb45457eac64bbff6

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-03-13)The US initial jobless claims were recorded at 220,000 last week, surpassing the anticipated figure of 226,000. This indicates that the US labor market continues to be strong, with minimal layoffs. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed no change at 0.0% in February, falling short of the expected 0.3% and January's 0.6%. This subdued PPI data points to reduced inflationary pressures from the supply side, potentially reducing worries regarding inflation driven by costs.Last Friday (25-03-14)The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a monthly rise of 0.4% in February, resulting in an annual increase of 2.3%. The one-year Michigan inflation expectation is projected to be 4.9%, higher than 4.3% in February, marking a significant rise from the 2.8% forecast at the start of the year. Additionally, the five-year inflation expectation is set at 3.9%, up from 3.5% in February. These rising inflation expectations indicate that US consumers are increasingly concerned about future inflation, potentially influenced by the tariff policies enacted by the administration.On Monday (25-03-17)US retail sales experienced a monthly increase of 0.2% in February, which fell short of the anticipated 0.2%. Additionally, the data for January was adjusted downward to reflect a 1.2% decrease. Meanwhile, core retail sales recorded a monthly growth of 0.3% at the same period, aligning with expectations.On Wednesday (25-03-19)The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.50% on Wednesday, cautioning about increasing global economic uncertainty. It signals that the timing of any future rate increases will largely hinge on the repercussions of potentially elevated U.S. tariffs. The Federal Reserve kept its interest rates unchanged, as widely expected by the market. The dot plot indicates that policymakers still anticipate two rate cuts later this year. Additionally, the Federal Reserve has decided to reduce the monthly Treasury redemption pace from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the monthly mortgage-backed securities (MBS) redemption at $35 billion, starting in April. This further quantitative tightening scaleback has positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a rally in risk assets. The S&P 500 closed with a gain of 1.08%, and the Nasdaq index surged by 1.41%. Bitcoin traded above $85,000 in the bullish backdrop.On Thursday (25-03-20)The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4.50% during its March meeting, a decision that had been highly anticipated by the market. In its statement, the central bank expressed concerns about the UK economy facing uncertainties related to global trade and the potential for stagnation domestically.US initial jobless claims were reported at 223,000 last week, with the previous number revised higher from 220,000 to 221,000. The data suggests the US labour market remains relatively stable.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, we observed a minor decrease in our Convert volume, primarily attributed to Bitcoin's challenges in surpassing the $85,000 resistance level and the muted trading flow on altcoins. Our desk also observed a notable shift in trading dynamics, with a considerable amount of trading activity migrating to DEX trading on the Binance Smart Chain (BSC). This trend is especially evident in the realm of meme coin trading, where participants are increasingly engaging in transactions with our new feature, Binance Alpha 2.0.In the BNB Chain sector, there was a slight reduction in trading volume, which fell by 3.7%. This minor downturn can largely be linked to the strong trading interest surrounding Pancakeswap ($CAKE). The popularity and demand for Pancakeswap ($CAKE) have played a significant role in shaping the trading landscape, influencing overall activity within the BNB Chain ecosystem.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: [email protected] for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Access Binance OTC desk on the VIP Portal
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Top Interest of the Week

Last week, Prosper ($PROS) experienced significant price volatility, skyrocketing by more than 150% within a single day, climbing from $0.32 to $0.75. The PROS team recently rolled out an update for its dApp and shared a mysterious tweet that hinted at upcoming features without disclosing any specifics. Although the price did pull back after the initial surge, it still recorded a 42.8% increase over the past week, while Bitcoin (BTC) saw a decline of 7.8%.SuperRare ($RARE), an NFT marketplace, has shown remarkable resilience even as the broader cryptocurrency market faced downturns. While BTC and ETH fell to $80,000 and $1,900, respectively, the RARE token surged by over 200% in just two days, achieving a trading volume exceeding $3 billion—nearly four times its market capitalization. This impressive performance caught the attention of traders, leading to heightened demand that further drove up the token's price.Ethena ($ENA) is the project team behind USDe, a synthetic stablecoin crafted to uphold its value independently of conventional financial systems. In contrast to certain stablecoins that rely on over-collateralization for stability, USDe is backed by a diverse array of assets, including ETH, stETH, BTC, and USDT, presenting a unique strategy for maintaining its peg. On March 4, Ethena released 2.06 billion of its native ENA tokens, significantly boosting the circulating supply. This sudden increase initially caused the ENA price to drop below $0.36 as the market adjusted to the new volume—a typical market response. Nevertheless, the decline was brief; shortly after, news of new investments in the Ethena project surfaced, sparking a surge in buying interest that propelled the ENA price above $0.45, signaling a resurgence of confidence in the ecosystem.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.In our prior analysis, we mapped out a potential short-term price path for Bitcoin, emphasizing the pivotal role of the RSI (Relative Strength Index) trendline. Since Bitcoin crossed the $100k threshold, this trendline has rejected upward price movements five times, a pattern that underscores a steady erosion of market demand and fading bullish momentum. We also pinpointed a vacuum zone between $76k and $90k—a range where Bitcoin surged rapidly in November 2024, leaving little established support or resistance. This lack of structure suggests that significant price action could unfold as Bitcoin nears this area.Recent market developments have amplified Bitcoin’s price volatility. The US’s shifting tariff policies and uncertainty over near-term economic growth have tightened the correlation between cryptocurrencies and US stock markets. Remarkably, the US stock market relinquished all gains accrued since the Trump election in just twelve days, dragging Bitcoin below $80k. Despite bullish catalysts like President Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement and last Friday’s Crypto Summit, bearish sentiment dominated, pushing Bitcoin’s price lower as it sought solid market support. On Tuesday morning in Asia, Bitcoin hit $76.6k—the upper boundary of our identified support zone—triggering buying interest that sparked a significant rebound across Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.The key question now is whether this rebound signals Bitcoin’s bottom and a potential climb higher. We contend that downward pressure is likely to persist. Bitcoin, commanding over 60% of the crypto market’s total capitalization, moves in lockstep with the US stock market, which faces headwinds from US tariffs on trade partners and the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary stance. This environment has tilted investor sentiment toward risk aversion. Although tech stocks spurred a US market rebound over the past two days, we view this as a fleeting reaction to the recent selloff, not a sustainable recovery. With reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2 and possible EU import tariffs looming in April, our outlook for risk assets, including Bitcoin, remains bearish in the near term.Historical trends bolster this perspective. Markets often slump before tariff effective dates—evidenced by declines preceding February 3, March 4, and March 12, dates tied to prior tariff rollouts—only to stage brief rebounds immediately afterward. Yet, these relief rallies have failed to reverse the broader downward trajectory.In short, the economic uncertainty fueled by new US tariffs casts a bearish shadow over crypto assets in the short term. We expect $76k to function as a primary support zone, with $72k as a secondary level, given its role as a stubborn resistance ceiling for five months in 2024.

Options Market

The above chart is the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC and ETH options.Following a steep decline in BTC and ETH prices on Tuesday morning in Asia, BTC fell to a four-month low of $76.2k, and ETH sank to a one-year low of $1,754. Over the next two days, both cryptocurrencies staged a relief rebound, but the recoveries diverged sharply. BTC’s implied volatilities (IVs)—a key measure of expected price swings—have settled back to a steady 55%, signaling a return to calmer market conditions. Meanwhile, ETH’s rebound has been noticeably weaker, with its front-end IVs remaining elevated. This contrast highlights lingering uncertainty around ETH and suggests a potential for further price turbulence, while BTC appears to be regaining stability.Looking ahead, the options market is pricing BTC’s implied volatility in the mid-50% range over the next two to six months, reflecting a balanced and stable outlook. This flat IV profile indicates that traders expect BTC to trade within a predictable range, with no sharp or dramatic price movements on the horizon. This shift to a more subdued volatility forecast stands in stark contrast to the recent price plunge, suggesting that the market has absorbed the shock and is now bracing for a period of consolidation rather than chaos.With BTC’s implied volatility currently at a relatively low level, traders who believe volatility could spike in the future have a prime opportunity to act. Strategies like straddles or strangles—designed to profit from significant price swings in either direction—can be particularly effective here. By entering these positions while IVs are low, traders can secure them at a lower cost, maximizing potential gains if BTC’s price breaks out of its current range and volatility surges.Our Option RFQ platform empowers traders to seize these opportunities with ease and efficiency. Offering a wide array of strategies—from vanilla call and put options to advanced plays like Call Spreads, Put Spreads, Calendar Spreads, Diagonal Spreads, Straddles, and Strangles—the platform delivers competitive pricing and seamless execution. Its intuitive interface lets you pick your instrument and get an instant quote, simplifying the process and enabling you to act swiftly on market conditions. Whether you’re hedging or speculating, this tool enhances your ability to navigate the options market with confidence.Binance users can access our Options RFQ platform via: https://www.binance.com/en/vip-portal/OTC-trading-platform?ref=OTC-OptionFor more details, you can also check the FAQ page for Options RFQ: https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/detail/6d3a80c6574f482eb45457eac64bbff6

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-03-06)The European Central Bank implemented a 25 basis points reduction during its March meeting, aligning with market predictions. Additionally, the central bank indicated a potential slowdown in future rate cuts, stating that “monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive.”U.S. tariff strategies regarding Mexico and Canada experienced further inconsistencies, with significant tariffs being imposed and then partially suspended for a period of 30 days.Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 221,000 last week, lower than the anticipated figure of 234,000.The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow has adjusted its Q1 forecast from -2.8% to -2.4%.Last Friday (25-03-07)The US nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the anticipated 159,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.0% in January to 4.1% in February.On Monday China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a more significant contraction than expected in February. The CPI recorded a 0.2% decrease month-over-month, resulting in a 0.7% decline year-over-year. Meanwhile, the PPI fell by 2.2% on an annual basis.On TuesdayThe US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) revealed that job openings increased to 7.74 million in January, a rise from the adjusted figure of 7.508 million in December and surpassing the consensus estimate of 7.63 million. This tight labor market in the US indicates that demand for labor remains strong, which could sustain upward pressure on wages and affect inflation expectations.On WednesdayThe US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February reported a year-over-year rise of 2.8%, a decrease from January's 3.0% and slightly under the expected 2.9%. The Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors, increased by 3.1% year-over-year, down from 3.3% and below the anticipated 3.2%. These statistics suggest a moderation in inflation for February, resulting in a dip in the US dollar as investors speculated on the possibility of earlier or more substantial interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Following the implementation of 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports starting Wednesday, combined with the easing inflation data, the market has shifted back to a risk-on stance, signaling a robust recovery. US tech stocks are at the forefront of this rebound, with Bitcoin trading above $83,000 just before the US market closed.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. The BTC experienced a significant selloff amid uncertainty surrounding the US tariff policy. The inconsistent tariff approach taken by the US on imported goods has heightened concerns about a potential recession. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, the market expects a continuation of restrictive monetary policies in the US, which further amplifies the bearish outlook on crypto assets that are particularly sensitive to global liquidity changes. In the Monitoring sector, trading volume surged by 97.3%, primarily driven by robust demand for Prosper ($PROS). In the Fan Token sector, there was a 29.4% increase in trading volume last week, largely propelled by strong interest in the OG Fan Token ($OG). Conversely, the Payments sector saw an 8.3% decline in trading volume. A notable decrease in trading volume from Ripple ($XRP) countered the strong demand for BTC, resulting in a downturn in this sector.
Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: [email protected] for more information.

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Top Interest of the Week

Last Sunday, US President Donald Trump made waves in the cryptocurrency market by sharing a significant message on his social media platform, Truth Social. His post suggested that Ripple ($XRP), Solana ($SOL), and Cardano ($ADA) would be included in a strategic crypto reserve, a move that many interpreted as a strong endorsement of these digital assets. This announcement ignited a massive buying frenzy among investors, leading to a dramatic surge in cryptocurrency prices. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, saw its value skyrocket by over $10,000, jumping from $85,000 to an impressive $95,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also experienced substantial gains, with both assets recording double-digit percentage gains.The excitement surrounding Trump's announcement had a particularly pronounced effect on Ripple ($XRP) and Cardano ($ADA), both of which are ranked among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Ripple's value surged by an astonishing 34%, while Cardano's price skyrocketed by 72% within a single day. Additionally, the Official Trump ($TRUMP) token, which is tied to Donald Trump himself, also benefited from the market surge, gaining 28% in value as investors reacted positively to the news.However, the euphoria in the cryptocurrency sector was short-lived. As the Asian markets opened on Monday, a wave of profit-taking swept through the market, leading to a significant retracement in prices. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all saw their values decline, with Ethereum's price notably falling below the critical $2,000 threshold on Tuesday. The shift in market sentiment quickly turned bearish, influenced by broader economic concerns, particularly the impending implementation of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. These tariffs had been postponed since February, but their imminent introduction added to investor anxiety.In addition to the tariffs on North American imports, a new 10% tariff on Chinese goods was set to take effect, bringing the total tariff burden on Chinese imports to 20%. This escalation in trade tensions prompted Canada, Mexico, and China to respond with reciprocal tariffs on US products, further exacerbating the situation. Notably, Canada even issued a warning about potentially cutting off electricity supplies to US states, highlighting the escalating nature of the trade conflict.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView

The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.In our last update, our analysis indicated minimal support between the $76k and $89k levels, as Bitcoin's price rapidly ascended through this range in November 2024. Additionally, the evolving tariffs between the US and its trading partners, such as Canada, Mexico, the European Union, and China, created a risk-averse investment climate. We noted a rotation in the market from small- to medium-cap altcoins to established blue-chip cryptocurrencies to enhance risk profiles.Over the weekend, the excitement in the crypto market, sparked by posts from US President Trump, led to significant short liquidations, driving Bitcoin's price up to $95k, while Solana ($SOL) soared past $177 within hours. Unexpectedly, Trump mentioned that Ripple, Solana, and Cardano would be part of the strategic crypto reserve, which was initially intended to include only Bitcoin. In a follow-up post, he added that Bitcoin and Ethereum would also be part of this reserve initiative.The substantial short liquidations quickly propelled Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices upward, with many cryptocurrencies experiencing double-digit increases. The crypto community perceived Trump's announcement as a positive move towards establishing a national crypto reserve, a concept he frequently discussed during his presidential campaign.However, many investors in the crypto industry have voiced doubts regarding the practicality of Trump's proposal and the potential inclusion of altcoins in the reserve program. A primary concern is that adding more altcoins could complicate the approval process in Congress. Additionally, ongoing tariff issues have increased risk-averse sentiment throughout the broader market. As a result, our desk observed considerable profit-taking as the Asian market opened on Monday.As shown in the above chart, it indicates that both the BTC price and the RSI faced rejection from the descending trendlines, despite the market being energized by excitement and significant short liquidations. Currently, the RSI for BTC is making another attempt. If it successfully breaks through the trendline with confirmation, we anticipate the BTC price to trade within the $95k-$104k range while awaiting further macro developments. Conversely, if it faces rejection again, we are inclined to see the BTC price decline further in search of additional support around the $76k level. Notably, the current price structure resembles that of last August, when BTC experienced a sharp drop due to escalating geopolitical tensions. After the BTC price capitulated to $49k, it took two months to consolidate before rising again. Should both the BTC price and its RSI be rejected, we expect a similar trajectory to unfold.Our team closely tracks potential catalysts that could drive BTC upward and breach the resistance trendline. This includes developments such as the Trump administration advancing the Bitcoin Reserve initiative, any state endorsing the State Bitcoin Reserve Plan, and potential monetary policy easing from central banks.

Options Market

The above chart is the at-the-money implied volatility curve of BTC options.Following the price fluctuations observed over the weekend, the options market is currently exhibiting elevated implied volatility on the front end. This heightened level of implied volatility can be attributed, in part, to the recent tariffs imposed by the United States and its trading partners, which have introduced additional layers of uncertainty into the market. As a result, traders are demanding a significant premium for the risks associated with short-term price movements, reflecting a cautious sentiment among market participants.In the medium term, the options market is pricing implied volatility for Bitcoin options in the mid-50% range, which indicates a relatively stable outlook. This flat profile suggests that traders do not foresee any abrupt or dramatic price movements in BTC in the next three to six months timeframe. Instead, the market appears to be anticipating that BTC will remain within a defined trading range, with limited volatility expected during this period. From this perspective, the options market leans towards the expectation that BTC will trade sideways rather than experiencing rapid upward or downward shifts. This sentiment may be influenced by a variety of factors, including macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and market sentiment, all of which contribute to the overall perception of risk in the cryptocurrency space. As traders navigate this environment, the elevated implied volatility on the short end serves as a reminder of the inherent uncertainties that continue to shape the market landscape. 

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-02-27)US initial jobless claims have begun to increase, with last week's figure reported at 242,000, exceeding the anticipated 222,000.Last Friday (25-02-28)The unemployment rate in Germany held steady at 6.2% in February, unchanged from January.The US PCE Price Index for January has been released, showing results that align with market expectations. The year-over-year growth of the PCE Price Index was 2.5% in January, a decrease from the 2.6% reported in December. Meanwhile, the Core PCE Price Index experienced a yearly increase of 2.6%, down from 2.9% in the previous month. These figures remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, leading the market to anticipate the first rate cut by the Fed in June, with expected pauses in March and May.The Chicago PMI reported stronger-than-expected results, registering at 45.5 in February, surpassing the forecast of 40.5 and January's figure of 39.5.On Monday (25-03-03)The Eurozone is anticipating a monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate of 0.5%, with an annualized rate of 2.4% for February, slightly exceeding the predicted 2.3%. In the same timeframe, the Core CPI recorded an annualized growth rate of 2.6%, marginally above the expected 2.5%.In the United States, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) registered at 50.3 in February, falling short of the anticipated 50.6 and lower than January's figure of 50.9. This data suggests a modest expansion in February, although it indicates a cooling trend. The ISM Manufacturing Prices index was reported at 62.4, significantly surpassing the forecast of 56.2 and the previous month's 54.9.The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model has revised its estimate for annualized growth in the current quarter to a surprising -2.8% as of Monday, a decrease from the +2.3% projected last week. A month prior, the model indicated that growth for the January-March period was on track for nearly +4.0%.On Tuesday (25-03-04)The United States has implemented a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 20% tariff on goods from China, effectively doubling the tariff on Chinese products from the previous month. In response, both Canada and Mexico have declared retaliatory tariffs on American exports. Additionally, China has announced plans to introduce new tariffs on various agricultural imports from the United States starting next week. This wave of tariffs has led to a risk-averse investment environment, resulting in the US stock market losing all gains made since the election, while Bitcoin is trading around the $85,000 mark.On Wednesday (25-03-05)The US ADP Nonfarm employment change recorded an increase of only 77,000 in February, falling short of the anticipated 141,000.The US S&P Global Services PMI stood at 51.0 in February, just below the expected 51.1.The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI registered at 53.5, slightly exceeding the forecast of 52.5.Later this week, we will see ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday, where a 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected. US nonfarm payroll report for February is anticipated, projecting an increase of 156,000 jobs. The US unemployment rate is estimated to remain at 4.0%. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech this Friday.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last weekend, the market experienced volatility following US President Donald Trump's announcement regarding the establishment of a "strategic crypto reserve" that will encompass Bitcoin ($BTC), Ethereum ($ETH), Ripple ($XRP), Solana ($SOL), and Cardano ($ADA), shared via posts on Truth Social. This news led to significant price surges for the listed cryptocurrencies, resulting in a substantial liquidation of short positions. However, the market retraced the following day amid concerns over a potential trade conflict between the US and its trading partners.In the Payments sector, trading volume rose by 42.2%, with Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ripple ($XRP) being the primary drivers of this increase.In the Layer1/Layer2 sector, trading volume experienced a 37.8% uptick last week, largely fueled by the cryptocurrencies mentioned in Trump's announcement.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: [email protected] for more information.

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Top Interest of the Week

The cryptocurrency market has seen a general downturn following the hack of the Bybit exchange last Friday and a prevailing risk-averse sentiment stemming from global trade tensions. However, our analysis indicates that certain altcoins have managed to outperform the broader market, driven by rising trading interest.The Sei Network ($SEI), a layer 1 blockchain focused on decentralized exchanges, appears poised for a significant turnaround. This optimism was sparked by a recent purchase of $125K worth of SEI tokens through a multi-signature wallet by World Liberty Finance (WLF) via CowSwap. This transaction has reignited investor interest, leading to a 15.8% increase in SEI's price, even as Bitcoin experienced a 12.4% drop.Raydium ($RAY), a leading DEX on the Solana network, has faced a substantial sell-off, resulting in a 41.3% drop in value following speculation regarding Pump.fun's automated market maker (AMM). As Pump.fun is a platform for launching meme coins, the potential establishment of its own AMM could significantly reduce trading volume on Raydium. Additionally, with the upcoming Solana unlock in March, selling pressure has intensified, contributing to a bearish sentiment that has adversely affected Raydium.THORchain ($RUNE), the native token of the non-custodial, cross-chain liquidity protocol, has surged by an impressive 36.3% over the past week. This increase comes despite a generally bearish market and follows a remarkable 300% rise in DEX trading volume over the last month. The recent hack of the Bybit exchange, which resulted in the loss of 499,000 ETH and the laundering of $250 million through the blockchain protocol, may have contributed to the heightened trading activity on THORChain.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView

The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.In our previous update, our OTC desk provided a detailed analysis of BTC price movements, projecting a bullish trend. This was confirmed when BTC surged above $98k last Thursday, indicating strong market momentum. However, the market sentiment shifted dramatically following the Bybit hack last Friday, which led to significant asset withdrawals by its clients. This reaction was driven by fears of a potential collapse similar to FTX, causing widespread panic in the crypto market. The resulting price disparity between Bybit and Binance led to a sharp decline in cryptocurrency prices. In the initial hours following the Bybit CEO's announcement of a $1.5 billion loss due to the hack, the BTCUSDT pair experienced a price gap exceeding $400 between Bybit and Binance.Despite Bybit's efforts to stabilize the situation by fulfilling all withdrawals and repurchasing the missing ETH for its clients, the market sentiment turned bearish, and the momentum structure was compromised. Additionally, increasing global trade tensions and a more risk-averse investor sentiment, exacerbated by the Trump administration's policies, further pressured the market. The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in March, coupled with the Federal Reserve's pause on rate cuts, has also contributed to reduced capital market liquidity. Our desk observed risk-off sentiment across all asset classes, with the US stock market dropping four consecutive trading days.From a technical analysis perspective, BTC lost its critical support level after breaching $89k. Historically, BTC surged rapidly from $76k to $89k within two days, indicating minimal support/resistance between these levels. Consequently, the next strong support level is at $76k. The recent three-day selloff, marked by three consecutive red candles with significant volumes, underscores the strong downside momentum. However, a positive observation is that some altcoins have decoupled from BTC's decline, with a few even posting double-digit gains as BTC dropped to $83k.Our desk remains optimistic about BTC's long-term prospects, firmly believing that the current cycle's peak has not yet been reached. Nevertheless, the market structure requires time to recover, and we anticipate a period of sideways trading before BTC regains upward momentum and targets new highs.Potential catalysts that could bolster bullish sentiment include:The Trump administration raising the Bitcoin Reserve agendaAny state approving the State Bitcoin Reserve PlanPostponement and negotiation of tariffs on US trading partnersA decrease in the PCE price index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve for inflationWe will continue to monitor these developments closely and provide updates as the situation evolves.

Options Market

The above table is the 25-delta skew on BTC and ETH options.The cryptocurrency market has faced significant selloffs over three consecutive days, largely driven by escalating worries about the 25% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on its trading partners, including Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. These tariffs have sparked a wave of uncertainty across financial markets, resulting in heightened volatility and a more cautious approach from investors. Consequently, the short-term options for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have shown a negative skew, indicating that options traders are increasingly inclined to pay higher premiums for put options, which act as a safeguard against potential further declines in these cryptocurrencies' prices.In contrast, our analysis of medium- to long-term options for BTC reveals a positive skew. This suggests that institutional investors remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term outlook, despite the recent market challenges. The readiness to pay higher premiums for call options in longer-dated contracts reflects a belief in BTC's potential for recovery and appreciation, showcasing confidence in its fundamental strength and future growth prospects.Conversely, Ethereum presents a different scenario. While it shows a less negative skew in the short term compared to Bitcoin, its longer-dated options indicate a weaker positive skew. This suggests that institutional investors harbor less confidence in ETH's long-term potential. The tempered optimism surrounding Ethereum can be linked to its lackluster performance over the past two years, raising doubts about its ability to compete effectively in the fast-changing cryptocurrency market. Thus, while there is some belief in ETH's short-term recovery, the overall sentiment regarding its long-term value remains cautious and less enthusiastic than that for Bitcoin.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-02-20)US initial jobless claims continue to stay low, with a report of 219,000 claims last week. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index experienced a notable decline, falling from 44.3 in January to 18.1 in February, which was below the anticipated figure of 19.4.Last Friday (25-02-21)Japan's national core Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a 3.2% year-over-year increase in January, surpassing the anticipated 3.1%. This strong inflation trend suggests that the Bank of Japan may implement another interest rate hike in March. In the UK, retail sales growth in January exceeded expectations, rising by 1.7% month-over-month, compared to the forecasted 0.4% increase. Core retail sales also performed well, achieving a 2.1% monthly growth, significantly above the predicted 0.9%.The University of Michigan's 5-Year Inflation Expectations indicated a median price increase of 3.5% over the next five years, which is higher than the expected 3.3%.The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recorded a reading of 51.6 in February, slightly above the forecast of 51.3. Conversely, the S&P Global Services PMI experienced an unexpected decline, registering at 49.7 instead of the anticipated 53.0. This disappointing PMI figure has raised concerns in the market regarding a potential slowdown in US economic growth.On Monday (25-02-24)Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated a 2.5% year-over-year increase in January, meeting market forecasts.On Tuesday (25-02-25)The US Conference Board has indicated a decline in consumer confidence, decreasing from 105.3 in January to 98.3 in February. This suggests that American consumers are becoming more hesitant to spend, likely due to concerns about potential inflation resulting from tariffs imposed during Trump's administration.On Wednesday (25-02-26)The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan experienced a 2.2% annual increase, surpassing the anticipated 2.0%. After the higher-than-expected CPI number, the likelihood of the Bank of Japan implementing another rate hike in March has risen.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, the market experienced a bearish shift following a $1.5 billion USD hack on the Bybit exchange. Despite a temporary surge in ETH prices due to the expectation that Bybit would need to repurchase 500,000 ETH for its clients, the market subsequently declined once the buyback was completed. Investor concerns regarding tariffs from the Trump administration, along with the increasing probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan and a potential pause by the Federal Reserve in March, led to a reduction in liquidity.In the Megadrop market, trading volume increased by 47.8%, with BounceBit ($BB) being the primary contributor to this rise. In the AI sector, trading volume saw a 34.2% increase last week, with Vana ($VANA) and Bittensor ($TAO) being the leading contributors to this growth.In the POW sector, trading volume rose by 22.5% last week, primarily fueled by increased demand for BTC ($BTC) and Dogecoin ($DOGE) amid market fluctuations.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: [email protected] for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Access Binance OTC desk on the VIP Portal
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Algo Orders
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Top Interest of the Week

Despite the overall decline in the cryptocurrency market, some digital currencies are experiencing notable price surges. One such example is Alchemy Pay’s $ACH token. Recently, Alchemy Pay obtained an Electronic Financial Business registration in South Korea, building on its prior approval from the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC), which oversees compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorism financing (CTF) regulations. This advancement in Alchemy Pay's real-world payment solution has captured the interest of investors, leading to a significant increase in its price accompanied by higher trading volumes.Official Trump ($TRUMP) has attracted significant interest within the trading community following its recent launch in the South Korean cryptocurrency markets. Additionally, the enthusiasm for $TRUMP has been heightened by favorable remarks from Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX. This has resulted in a surge in trading volumes and price fluctuations as traders respond to the developments and speculate on the token's potential trajectory.Mantra ($OM) has surpassed market performance with a remarkable 32.2% increase last week. Recognized as a frontrunner in the Real World Assets (RWA) sector, Mantra has revealed its collaboration with the DAMAC Group, a prominent real estate company in the UAE, to tokenize a $1 billion portfolio that encompasses high-end properties and business investments. This project, scheduled to launch in early 2025, seeks to improve investment accessibility and market liquidity by transforming physical assets into digital tokens, thereby facilitating trading in a more efficient manner than conventional real estate methods.

Overall Market

Source: TradingView

The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.In our previous update, our OTC desk provided an analysis of the projected trajectory for Bitcoin ($BTC). We emphasized the importance of rekindling bullish momentum for BTC to surpass the $100,000 threshold. Our team has been closely monitoring the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other indicators to identify market direction signals.However, last week, BTC traded within a historically tight range, reflecting low volatility. While the S&P 500 index, representing the US stock market, reached new all-time highs, cryptocurrencies remained in a state of stagnation, awaiting a clear direction. On Tuesday, BTC's price fell below $93,500 during the US trading session, largely influenced by the underperformance of Solana ($SOL). The Solana network experienced a notable drop in on-chain activity following the LIBRA scandal involving Argentina's President, Javier Milei. Additionally, market sentiment around SOL turned negative due to a significant unlock scheduled for March. The annualized inflation rate for Solana rose 30.5%, from 3.6% to “4.7%, after the introduction of Solana Improvement Document 96 (SIMD 96). SIMD 96 proposed utilizing the total priority fees for network validators instead of burning half. As a result, the daily SOL burn rate decreased dramatically from nearly 18,000 SOL to just 1,000 SOL.Despite the downward pressure from Solana, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, managing to close above the $95,000 mark on the daily chart. Moreover, we have noticed a divergence between BTC's price and the RSI indicator, suggesting the possibility of upward momentum. With more US states embracing the Bitcoin reserve concept—Montana recently becoming the fourth state to advance a Bitcoin reserve bill to the House—we believe BTC's consolidation phase is approaching its end.We anticipate that BTC will soon reclaim the crucial $100k level and explore additional upside potential. Our outlook for BTC remains optimistic, and we continue to believe that the peak of this cycle will be reached by the end of March.

Options Market

The above table is the 25-delta skew on BTC and ETH options.The 25-delta skew is a crucial indicator in the options market, reflecting the pricing dynamics between call and put options. Currently, this skew reveals that BTC call options are consistently traded higher than their put options across all expiration dates. This trend is particularly pronounced for longer-term options, where the premiums for calls are significantly elevated. Such pricing behavior suggests that options traders are exhibiting a strong preference for calls, indicating a collective belief in the potential for BTC's price to rise. This inclination to purchase calls over puts implies that traders are more focused on capitalizing on upward price movements rather than seeking protection against potential declines.In our previous update, we highlighted that the implied volatility for BTC options has been hovering at historically low levels. This low-volatility environment presents unique opportunities for traders to long Vol, particularly those employing strategies like long straddles or strangles. In these strategies, traders buy both puts and calls simultaneously, positioning themselves to profit from any significant price movement, regardless of direction. The rationale behind this approach is that as volatility increases, the value of both options can rise, allowing traders to benefit from the market's fluctuations. Our team has specifically recommended a long BTC straddle paired with a short Ethereum (ETH) straddle. This strategy aims to exploit the volatility premium present in the BTC options market while simultaneously hedging against potential movements in ETH, with the assumption that the ETH/BTC pair remains stable.The prevailing bullish sentiment in the options market, coupled with the observed divergence in the BTC spot market as mentioned in the above section, leads our team to believe that bullish momentum for BTC is indeed gaining traction. This sentiment is further reinforced by the anticipation that once BTC surpasses the critical psychological barrier of $100,000, it could trigger a wave of buying interest and positive sentiment among investors. Such a breakthrough could not only validate the bullish outlook but also attract new participants to the market, potentially accelerating BTC's upward trajectory. As we continue to monitor these developments, we remain optimistic about the prospects for BTC, particularly in light of the current market dynamics and trader sentiment.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (25-02-13)Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 213,000, which is below the anticipated figure of 217,000.In January, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a monthly increase of 0.4%, surpassing the expected 0.3% but down from December's 0.5% rise. This PPI data indicates that inflation in the US remains above the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance regarding interest rate decisions.Last Friday (25-02-14)The Eurozone is anticipated to experience a GDP growth rate of 0.9% annually in the fourth quarter of 2024, aligning with market expectations.In January, US retail sales decreased by 0.9% monthly, following a 0.7% increase in December. This figure was below the anticipated decline of 0.2%. Additionally, core retail sales fell by 0.4% month over month after a 0.7% rise in the previous month.The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has revised its forecast for GDP growth in the first quarter to 2.3%, down from an earlier estimate of 2.9%.On Monday (25-02-17)Japan's GDP is anticipated to grow at an annual rate of 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, significantly surpassing the economists' predicted growth of 1.0%.On Tuesday (25-02-18)The Reserve Bank of Australia has reduced its interest rate by 0.25% to 4.10%, marking the first decrease since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Nevertheless, the bank cautioned that it is premature to consider inflation under control and expressed caution regarding the potential for additional rate reductions.In the UK, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded an annual growth rate of 3.0% in January, re-accelerating from 2.5% in December.On Wednesday (25-02-19)Federal Reserve officials indicated in January that a further reduction in interest rates would only be considered if inflation showed a significant decline. As noted in the meeting minutes, they also voiced apprehensions regarding the potential effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on achieving this goal.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) continued to fluctuate within a historically narrow range, searching for a clear direction. The overall trading activity in the cryptocurrency market was subdued, reflecting a lack of compelling narratives, although there was notable interest in small-cap altcoins.In the Fan Token market, trading volume experienced a remarkable increase of 260.3% last week, primarily fueled by the strong performance of Juventus Fan Token ($JUV), which achieved a 33% gain in the past seven days.In the Polkadot ecosystem, trading volume rose by 72.1% last week, with Heima ($HEI) significantly contributing to this increase.In the Monitoring sector, trading volume grew by 59.5% last week, largely driven by heightened demand for ARK ($ARK) and TROY ($TROY).

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: [email protected] for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!