Bigboss
善待他人，如同善待自己，观点与你相悖，没必要恶言相向！时间会见证一切
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1) Yesterday we talked about tariffs, and we really don't need to panic. For those who are unclear about what's going on, refer to yesterday's first message.
2) More and more publicly listed companies are using BTC, ETH, and SOL as strategic reserves. They actually missed out on the profits from BTC and don't have enough say in the reserve funds of BTC, so they chose ETH and SOL instead. Currently, ETH is considered a premium investment, and many companies will start choosing SOL for reserves soon. Got it?
3) Last night, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the June FOMC meeting. The market expects a rate cut in September, with a total of two rate cuts this year and three in 2026, totaling 125 basis points. (Positive news)
4) The U.S. Treasury released cash rebuilding forecasts, with a pace and method more moderate than market expectations. It is estimated that cash reserves will increase from $313 billion to $500 billion by the end of July and reach $850 billion by September. The Treasury is not in a hurry to rapidly replenish cash reserves, which may align with the Fed's rate cut in September to prevent short-term negative impacts on market liquidity, helping to stabilize market expectations and reduce U.S. Treasury yields. Therefore, the expectation for a rate cut in September remains almost unchanged (positive news).
Yesterday we mentioned BTC going to 109,888, and now it has reached 111,999, almost a historical high.
ETH was expected to go to 2,720 yesterday, and now it has reached 2,820.
Both have achieved their targets; how will the market move next?
Currently, the market is facing negative factors such as pump and WiFi bloodsucking, but there are no other significant external bad news for now.
Short-term market (2 days)
BTC current price 111,200, looking at 113,888 (retracing to around 110,700), support at 110,000.
ETH current price 2,790, looking at 2,888 (retracing to around 2,735), support at 2,700.
Medium-term market: ETH looking at 3,000, BTC looking at 120,000, to be achieved before July 15.
Long-term market: ETH looking at new highs, BTC looking at 168,000, to be completed by the end of December.
#btc #eth
2) More and more publicly listed companies are using BTC, ETH, and SOL as strategic reserves. They actually missed out on the profits from BTC and don't have enough say in the reserve funds of BTC, so they chose ETH and SOL instead. Currently, ETH is considered a premium investment, and many companies will start choosing SOL for reserves soon. Got it?
3) Last night, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the June FOMC meeting. The market expects a rate cut in September, with a total of two rate cuts this year and three in 2026, totaling 125 basis points. (Positive news)
4) The U.S. Treasury released cash rebuilding forecasts, with a pace and method more moderate than market expectations. It is estimated that cash reserves will increase from $313 billion to $500 billion by the end of July and reach $850 billion by September. The Treasury is not in a hurry to rapidly replenish cash reserves, which may align with the Fed's rate cut in September to prevent short-term negative impacts on market liquidity, helping to stabilize market expectations and reduce U.S. Treasury yields. Therefore, the expectation for a rate cut in September remains almost unchanged (positive news).
Yesterday we mentioned BTC going to 109,888, and now it has reached 111,999, almost a historical high.
ETH was expected to go to 2,720 yesterday, and now it has reached 2,820.
Both have achieved their targets; how will the market move next?
Currently, the market is facing negative factors such as pump and WiFi bloodsucking, but there are no other significant external bad news for now.
Short-term market (2 days)
BTC current price 111,200, looking at 113,888 (retracing to around 110,700), support at 110,000.
ETH current price 2,790, looking at 2,888 (retracing to around 2,735), support at 2,700.
Medium-term market: ETH looking at 3,000, BTC looking at 120,000, to be achieved before July 15.
Long-term market: ETH looking at new highs, BTC looking at 168,000, to be completed by the end of December.
#btc #eth
End
🎙️ 没事就聊聊天
07 m 10 s · 5 listens
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Good morning, weekend!
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1) The talks between Europe and America yesterday did not achieve a breakthrough, negotiations will continue today, with a response expected by July 9 at the latest. (Currently, the probability of reaching an agreement seems very low, which is bearish)
2) Yesterday, Trump signed the Great American Spending Act, waiting for the funds to flow in (bearish for the dollar, bullish for U.S. stocks and crypto assets)
3) Yesterday, there was a transfer of 80,000 BTC wallets, one suspected to belong to a Chinese individual named Deng, and one suspected to be from the Spanish Bitcoin Jesus; such large-scale movements are certainly not a good sign.
4) India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. (bearish)
5) Musk initiated a poll on Twitter to prepare to establish a new political party, with the vast majority in agreement (bearish)
6) Trump stated that on July 7, he will send letters to multiple countries, with the highest tariffs reaching 70% and the lowest at 10%, and the new tariffs will be implemented on August 1. (bearish)
Overall, the news is mostly bearish, lacking positive news. Therefore, once the bearish factors are exhausted, a violent upward trend is likely to occur.
How will the market trend next? #大而美法案 #美国加征关税
Yesterday's prediction for BTC was 107,500, with a minimum of 107,200, perfectly achieved, yielding a profit of 2,000 points.
ETH was predicted to reach 2,500, with a minimum of 2,474, yielding a profit of 85 points.
The market forecast for the last 7 days can be considered completed.
All major directions were completely correct.
Short-term market (2 days)
Current BTC price: 108,077, looking at 107,600, resistance at 109,000
Current ETH price: 2,524, looking at 2,480, resistance at 2,580
This news does not clearly indicate a direction; it is highly likely to fluctuate within this range, but I can roughly confirm that the current bottom is gradually rising, and the range is gradually narrowing.
Thus, 107,000 can be considered a phase bottom, and 2,470 can be considered a phase bottom.
Today belongs to the market repair area, with little likelihood of the range breaking out today or tomorrow.
Medium-term market: ETH looking at 3,000, BTC looking at 120,000, expected to be achieved before July 15.
Long-term market: ETH looking for new highs, BTC looking at 168,000, expected to be completed by the end of December.
2) Yesterday, Trump signed the Great American Spending Act, waiting for the funds to flow in (bearish for the dollar, bullish for U.S. stocks and crypto assets)
3) Yesterday, there was a transfer of 80,000 BTC wallets, one suspected to belong to a Chinese individual named Deng, and one suspected to be from the Spanish Bitcoin Jesus; such large-scale movements are certainly not a good sign.
4) India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. (bearish)
5) Musk initiated a poll on Twitter to prepare to establish a new political party, with the vast majority in agreement (bearish)
6) Trump stated that on July 7, he will send letters to multiple countries, with the highest tariffs reaching 70% and the lowest at 10%, and the new tariffs will be implemented on August 1. (bearish)
Overall, the news is mostly bearish, lacking positive news. Therefore, once the bearish factors are exhausted, a violent upward trend is likely to occur.
How will the market trend next? #大而美法案 #美国加征关税
Yesterday's prediction for BTC was 107,500, with a minimum of 107,200, perfectly achieved, yielding a profit of 2,000 points.
ETH was predicted to reach 2,500, with a minimum of 2,474, yielding a profit of 85 points.
The market forecast for the last 7 days can be considered completed.
All major directions were completely correct.
Short-term market (2 days)
Current BTC price: 108,077, looking at 107,600, resistance at 109,000
Current ETH price: 2,524, looking at 2,480, resistance at 2,580
This news does not clearly indicate a direction; it is highly likely to fluctuate within this range, but I can roughly confirm that the current bottom is gradually rising, and the range is gradually narrowing.
Thus, 107,000 can be considered a phase bottom, and 2,470 can be considered a phase bottom.
Today belongs to the market repair area, with little likelihood of the range breaking out today or tomorrow.
Medium-term market: ETH looking at 3,000, BTC looking at 120,000, expected to be achieved before July 15.
Long-term market: ETH looking for new highs, BTC looking at 168,000, expected to be completed by the end of December.
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1) Texas has passed a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, awaiting the governor's signature.
2) Israel and Iran are in serious conflict, which is detrimental to the market.
3) The global bond market is interconnected, with recent signs of weakening in Japanese, British, and Dutch bonds due to their respective issues;
Currently, there are no solutions to the above problems, so the bond market will continue to be under pressure, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeding 4.6%, likely to continue rising, affecting the sentiment of risk assets, leading to a triple hit on U.S. stocks, bonds, and currencies; there will also be some auctions of government bonds with maturities of 7 years or less later this month, and there will be auctions of 20 and 30-year government bonds in mid-June, which are likely to be very poor.
What does the above information imply?
When global bond yields rise sharply, borrowing costs will increase, making this a bad situation in the long run; it could be a ticking time bomb, especially if the Federal Reserve continues to not lower interest rates or if another piece of news directly triggers a market reaction.
U.S. stocks have already felt the pressure, closing down 1.91% last night, but BTC rose against the trend, mainly due to James's bullish position and Insider's conflict. Sentiment has directly improved, with James increasing his long position to $1.1 billion, and BlackRock also purchased $537 million of BTC last night. This is a personal highlight for BTC.
If BTC stabilizes at $110,000, there will be a rebound, but if it cannot stabilize, altcoins will drop even more sharply, as they are all reliant on BTC.
There is no upward trend that lasts forever, nor a downward trend that lasts forever; once short positions are squeezed out, long positions will be quickly eliminated.
Today's market situation: based on sentiment
The main support level for BTC is in the $106,000 range; if it breaks below this, it will definitely head towards the bullish $104,000 level.
BTC is expected to explode short positions near $114,000 today. A pullback will begin.
2) Israel and Iran are in serious conflict, which is detrimental to the market.
3) The global bond market is interconnected, with recent signs of weakening in Japanese, British, and Dutch bonds due to their respective issues;
Currently, there are no solutions to the above problems, so the bond market will continue to be under pressure, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeding 4.6%, likely to continue rising, affecting the sentiment of risk assets, leading to a triple hit on U.S. stocks, bonds, and currencies; there will also be some auctions of government bonds with maturities of 7 years or less later this month, and there will be auctions of 20 and 30-year government bonds in mid-June, which are likely to be very poor.
What does the above information imply?
When global bond yields rise sharply, borrowing costs will increase, making this a bad situation in the long run; it could be a ticking time bomb, especially if the Federal Reserve continues to not lower interest rates or if another piece of news directly triggers a market reaction.
U.S. stocks have already felt the pressure, closing down 1.91% last night, but BTC rose against the trend, mainly due to James's bullish position and Insider's conflict. Sentiment has directly improved, with James increasing his long position to $1.1 billion, and BlackRock also purchased $537 million of BTC last night. This is a personal highlight for BTC.
If BTC stabilizes at $110,000, there will be a rebound, but if it cannot stabilize, altcoins will drop even more sharply, as they are all reliant on BTC.
There is no upward trend that lasts forever, nor a downward trend that lasts forever; once short positions are squeezed out, long positions will be quickly eliminated.
Today's market situation: based on sentiment
The main support level for BTC is in the $106,000 range; if it breaks below this, it will definitely head towards the bullish $104,000 level.
BTC is expected to explode short positions near $114,000 today. A pullback will begin.
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1) Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, and last night the U.S. stock market fell, while BTC showed an upward trend, which is very strange!
2) U.S. Treasury bonds with a 30-year maturity were heavily sold off, causing yields to rise sharply.
3) Yields on Japanese government bonds with 20, 30, and 40-year maturities surged sharply. As the world's third-largest economy and a major bond market, pressure in Japan's bond market could trigger a rise in global borrowing costs.
4) The U.S. House Budget Committee passed a tax and spending bill, expected to increase the deficit by trillions of dollars, meaning the U.S. government will need to increase its debt.
Regarding the current state of the U.S., it either needs to reduce taxes or increase tariffs, with a high probability of increasing tariff rates.
Looking at the four points above together, the long-term outlook is definitely a potential risk and dangerous situation. The trap has been set, waiting for the fuse to come out, to see when it will explode. (Expected within 3 months, possibly just before the interest rate cut)
From a long-term perspective: this time is likely to peak around 118,000 (expected to be completed before mid-June), then significantly drop to around 90,000, and when it takes off again, it will aim for 150,000.
As for BTC, a decline could lead to recovery, which is a strong breakout signal (yesterday I thought Moody's rating would also impact BTC, but the volatility transmitted from the U.S. stock market was minimal; I can only say that my short-term judgment was incorrect, but that does not mean there is no long-term impact, as I mentioned above).
2) U.S. Treasury bonds with a 30-year maturity were heavily sold off, causing yields to rise sharply.
3) Yields on Japanese government bonds with 20, 30, and 40-year maturities surged sharply. As the world's third-largest economy and a major bond market, pressure in Japan's bond market could trigger a rise in global borrowing costs.
4) The U.S. House Budget Committee passed a tax and spending bill, expected to increase the deficit by trillions of dollars, meaning the U.S. government will need to increase its debt.
Regarding the current state of the U.S., it either needs to reduce taxes or increase tariffs, with a high probability of increasing tariff rates.
Looking at the four points above together, the long-term outlook is definitely a potential risk and dangerous situation. The trap has been set, waiting for the fuse to come out, to see when it will explode. (Expected within 3 months, possibly just before the interest rate cut)
From a long-term perspective: this time is likely to peak around 118,000 (expected to be completed before mid-June), then significantly drop to around 90,000, and when it takes off again, it will aim for 150,000.
As for BTC, a decline could lead to recovery, which is a strong breakout signal (yesterday I thought Moody's rating would also impact BTC, but the volatility transmitted from the U.S. stock market was minimal; I can only say that my short-term judgment was incorrect, but that does not mean there is no long-term impact, as I mentioned above).
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The important news these past few days is that
Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1. This is the first significant downgrade since 2011 by S&P, when U.S. stocks plummeted by 5%.
Yesterday, Bessen responded by saying that Moody's is unreliable (a rather weak rebuttal).
So tonight, let's see if Wall Street considers Moody's rating to be credible.
Pay attention tonight:
1) 21:30, the trend after the U.S. stock market opens; if Wall Street acknowledges Moody's rating, then U.S. stocks will plummet, leading to a market crash (the likelihood of a crash is very high).
I believe Moody's rating is credible; the U.S. government has no credibility, it’s all just Trump's words, changing from day to day, and Wall Street can definitely smell the trouble, so fleeing is quite normal!
2) Pay attention tonight at 22:00 for discussions between Trump, Ski, and Putin (they talked for two hours before but didn't reach an agreement, and they will continue tonight, but the likelihood is still low).
Last night, BTC quickly gained liquidity, which is a very false signal! The high probability is that it's to wipe out the short positions before continuing to drop!
Today's market analysis:
BTC current price is 104300, looking at 99825, resistance at 106000.
ETH current price is 2400, looking at 2115, resistance at 2588.
Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1. This is the first significant downgrade since 2011 by S&P, when U.S. stocks plummeted by 5%.
Yesterday, Bessen responded by saying that Moody's is unreliable (a rather weak rebuttal).
So tonight, let's see if Wall Street considers Moody's rating to be credible.
Pay attention tonight:
1) 21:30, the trend after the U.S. stock market opens; if Wall Street acknowledges Moody's rating, then U.S. stocks will plummet, leading to a market crash (the likelihood of a crash is very high).
I believe Moody's rating is credible; the U.S. government has no credibility, it’s all just Trump's words, changing from day to day, and Wall Street can definitely smell the trouble, so fleeing is quite normal!
2) Pay attention tonight at 22:00 for discussions between Trump, Ski, and Putin (they talked for two hours before but didn't reach an agreement, and they will continue tonight, but the likelihood is still low).
Last night, BTC quickly gained liquidity, which is a very false signal! The high probability is that it's to wipe out the short positions before continuing to drop!
Today's market analysis:
BTC current price is 104300, looking at 99825, resistance at 106000.
ETH current price is 2400, looking at 2115, resistance at 2588.
See original
1) Last night's speech by Powell roughly meant:
The Federal Reserve does not need to push the inflation target below 2%; returning to 2% is sufficient to stop tightening (currently at 2.3%, close to the target).
In this round of interest rate cuts, monetary policy will be more accommodative (more funds will flow in).
The expectation for rate cuts has been adjusted to only once this year, and that will be in December. (I believe the expectation has been extended; a sudden rate cut would be a big positive).
2) FTX Recovery Trust will conduct its second distribution on May 30, distributing over $5 billion to creditors (this will bring new funds into the market, but since it's at the end of the month, we still need to wait).
3) Today at 16:00 on Friday, there will be options expiration around $100,000 (there will be more volatility around this time).
4) Pay attention to the Consumer Index at 22:00 tonight (data is favorable, with little volatility).
Yesterday, I mentioned that BTC and ETH were looking for liquidity, with ETH reaching a low of 2476, very close to my mention of 2460. BTC was said to look for liquidity at 100666, with a low of 101270, also very close.
I have previously mentioned that after looking for liquidity either up or down, a rebound or correction trend will quickly follow.
Today's market analysis:
BTC is in a bottom triangle breakout trend on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts.
BTC current price is 103900, looking at 106666, with support at 102500.
ETH current price is 2560, looking at 2666, with support at 2480.
The Federal Reserve does not need to push the inflation target below 2%; returning to 2% is sufficient to stop tightening (currently at 2.3%, close to the target).
In this round of interest rate cuts, monetary policy will be more accommodative (more funds will flow in).
The expectation for rate cuts has been adjusted to only once this year, and that will be in December. (I believe the expectation has been extended; a sudden rate cut would be a big positive).
2) FTX Recovery Trust will conduct its second distribution on May 30, distributing over $5 billion to creditors (this will bring new funds into the market, but since it's at the end of the month, we still need to wait).
3) Today at 16:00 on Friday, there will be options expiration around $100,000 (there will be more volatility around this time).
4) Pay attention to the Consumer Index at 22:00 tonight (data is favorable, with little volatility).
Yesterday, I mentioned that BTC and ETH were looking for liquidity, with ETH reaching a low of 2476, very close to my mention of 2460. BTC was said to look for liquidity at 100666, with a low of 101270, also very close.
I have previously mentioned that after looking for liquidity either up or down, a rebound or correction trend will quickly follow.
Today's market analysis:
BTC is in a bottom triangle breakout trend on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts.
BTC current price is 103900, looking at 106666, with support at 102500.
ETH current price is 2560, looking at 2666, with support at 2480.
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Last night, I looked at the trends and thought a similar curve would emerge, but it turned out to be just that, a misjudgment!
1) The China-US tariff agreement has been reached, and next will be some smaller countries.
We can wait.
The US-Japan, US-South Korea tariff agreements have been reached, and the US-India (which is currently dealing with India-Pakistan relations, so it will take more time).
Tariff agreements with countries like Vietnam and Thailand will also be reached very soon.
I expect the announcement of the agreement to come soon. This is all positive news!
20:30 unemployment claims, slightly positive (can take a short position on a rebound here)
20:40 Powell's speech, a tough stance, the speech is negative news!
Short-term market: (If the above tariff agreements do not bring positive news, there will be a need to fill in the gap for liquidity)
Current BTC price 102931, looking at 100666, resistance at 104399
Current ETH price 2591, looking at 2460, resistance at 2650
1) The China-US tariff agreement has been reached, and next will be some smaller countries.
We can wait.
The US-Japan, US-South Korea tariff agreements have been reached, and the US-India (which is currently dealing with India-Pakistan relations, so it will take more time).
Tariff agreements with countries like Vietnam and Thailand will also be reached very soon.
I expect the announcement of the agreement to come soon. This is all positive news!
20:30 unemployment claims, slightly positive (can take a short position on a rebound here)
20:40 Powell's speech, a tough stance, the speech is negative news!
Short-term market: (If the above tariff agreements do not bring positive news, there will be a need to fill in the gap for liquidity)
Current BTC price 102931, looking at 100666, resistance at 104399
Current ETH price 2591, looking at 2460, resistance at 2650
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The turnover rate of uxlink has reached 1078%, so why hasn't the price increased? What is the situation?
Change of holdings? Selling the shell? Or??
Change of holdings? Selling the shell? Or??
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Now it’s completely about the exchange rate issue of ETH compensating for BTC.
BTC has been pressing at the 105,000 mark, waiting for ETH to catch up with the exchange rate.
When the ETH exchange rate reaches 0.3, BTC will have significant movements.
Currently, the ETH exchange rate is 0.02567, the price is 2660, and the BTC price is 103700.
If the exchange rate increases to 0.3, the ETH price will be around 2850, while BTC will still be near 105000.
So, a situation has formed where ETH rises, BTC slowly rises, ETH falls, and BTC follows the decline.
That makes it easier to trade.
Mainly focus on ETH, just buy on dips!
Range:
Current ETH price is 2670, looking at 2919, support at 2600 (buy more at 2610)
Current BTC price is 103700, looking at 105000, support at 101500
BTC has been pressing at the 105,000 mark, waiting for ETH to catch up with the exchange rate.
When the ETH exchange rate reaches 0.3, BTC will have significant movements.
Currently, the ETH exchange rate is 0.02567, the price is 2660, and the BTC price is 103700.
If the exchange rate increases to 0.3, the ETH price will be around 2850, while BTC will still be near 105000.
So, a situation has formed where ETH rises, BTC slowly rises, ETH falls, and BTC follows the decline.
That makes it easier to trade.
Mainly focus on ETH, just buy on dips!
Range:
Current ETH price is 2670, looking at 2919, support at 2600 (buy more at 2610)
Current BTC price is 103700, looking at 105000, support at 101500
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