Bigboss
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How is Trump manipulating the situation? Will Bitcoin rise or fall?
1) After BTC reserves, but does not increase substantial purchasing power, is it bearish or bullish?
A. The US federal policy supports Bitcoin reserves, so should various consortiums, institutions, local states, and other countries also follow suit?
A1 has provided a new final reference for sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, mutual funds, etc., encouraging them to increase Bitcoin allocation.
A2 Honduras, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador are also preparing to launch Bitcoin strategies.
B. Although reserves do not have incremental funds, the SEC's repeated statements, such as withdrawing lawsuits and accelerating ETF approvals, indicate that this is a slowly favorable policy, right?
A. The US federal policy supports Bitcoin reserves, so should various consortiums, institutions, local states, and other countries also follow suit?
A1 has provided a new final reference for sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, mutual funds, etc., encouraging them to increase Bitcoin allocation.
A2 Honduras, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador are also preparing to launch Bitcoin strategies.
B. Although reserves do not have incremental funds, the SEC's repeated statements, such as withdrawing lawsuits and accelerating ETF approvals, indicate that this is a slowly favorable policy, right?
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1) Texas has passed a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, awaiting the governor's signature.
2) Israel and Iran are in serious conflict, which is detrimental to the market.
3) The global bond market is interconnected, with recent signs of weakening in Japanese, British, and Dutch bonds due to their respective issues;
Currently, there are no solutions to the above problems, so the bond market will continue to be under pressure, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeding 4.6%, likely to continue rising, affecting the sentiment of risk assets, leading to a triple hit on U.S. stocks, bonds, and currencies; there will also be some auctions of government bonds with maturities of 7 years or less later this month, and there will be auctions of 20 and 30-year government bonds in mid-June, which are likely to be very poor.
What does the above information imply?
When global bond yields rise sharply, borrowing costs will increase, making this a bad situation in the long run; it could be a ticking time bomb, especially if the Federal Reserve continues to not lower interest rates or if another piece of news directly triggers a market reaction.
U.S. stocks have already felt the pressure, closing down 1.91% last night, but BTC rose against the trend, mainly due to James's bullish position and Insider's conflict. Sentiment has directly improved, with James increasing his long position to $1.1 billion, and BlackRock also purchased $537 million of BTC last night. This is a personal highlight for BTC.
If BTC stabilizes at $110,000, there will be a rebound, but if it cannot stabilize, altcoins will drop even more sharply, as they are all reliant on BTC.
There is no upward trend that lasts forever, nor a downward trend that lasts forever; once short positions are squeezed out, long positions will be quickly eliminated.
Today's market situation: based on sentiment
The main support level for BTC is in the $106,000 range; if it breaks below this, it will definitely head towards the bullish $104,000 level.
BTC is expected to explode short positions near $114,000 today. A pullback will begin.
2) Israel and Iran are in serious conflict, which is detrimental to the market.
3) The global bond market is interconnected, with recent signs of weakening in Japanese, British, and Dutch bonds due to their respective issues;
Currently, there are no solutions to the above problems, so the bond market will continue to be under pressure, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeding 4.6%, likely to continue rising, affecting the sentiment of risk assets, leading to a triple hit on U.S. stocks, bonds, and currencies; there will also be some auctions of government bonds with maturities of 7 years or less later this month, and there will be auctions of 20 and 30-year government bonds in mid-June, which are likely to be very poor.
What does the above information imply?
When global bond yields rise sharply, borrowing costs will increase, making this a bad situation in the long run; it could be a ticking time bomb, especially if the Federal Reserve continues to not lower interest rates or if another piece of news directly triggers a market reaction.
U.S. stocks have already felt the pressure, closing down 1.91% last night, but BTC rose against the trend, mainly due to James's bullish position and Insider's conflict. Sentiment has directly improved, with James increasing his long position to $1.1 billion, and BlackRock also purchased $537 million of BTC last night. This is a personal highlight for BTC.
If BTC stabilizes at $110,000, there will be a rebound, but if it cannot stabilize, altcoins will drop even more sharply, as they are all reliant on BTC.
There is no upward trend that lasts forever, nor a downward trend that lasts forever; once short positions are squeezed out, long positions will be quickly eliminated.
Today's market situation: based on sentiment
The main support level for BTC is in the $106,000 range; if it breaks below this, it will definitely head towards the bullish $104,000 level.
BTC is expected to explode short positions near $114,000 today. A pullback will begin.
See original
1) Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, and last night the U.S. stock market fell, while BTC showed an upward trend, which is very strange!
2) U.S. Treasury bonds with a 30-year maturity were heavily sold off, causing yields to rise sharply.
3) Yields on Japanese government bonds with 20, 30, and 40-year maturities surged sharply. As the world's third-largest economy and a major bond market, pressure in Japan's bond market could trigger a rise in global borrowing costs.
4) The U.S. House Budget Committee passed a tax and spending bill, expected to increase the deficit by trillions of dollars, meaning the U.S. government will need to increase its debt.
Regarding the current state of the U.S., it either needs to reduce taxes or increase tariffs, with a high probability of increasing tariff rates.
Looking at the four points above together, the long-term outlook is definitely a potential risk and dangerous situation. The trap has been set, waiting for the fuse to come out, to see when it will explode. (Expected within 3 months, possibly just before the interest rate cut)
From a long-term perspective: this time is likely to peak around 118,000 (expected to be completed before mid-June), then significantly drop to around 90,000, and when it takes off again, it will aim for 150,000.
As for BTC, a decline could lead to recovery, which is a strong breakout signal (yesterday I thought Moody's rating would also impact BTC, but the volatility transmitted from the U.S. stock market was minimal; I can only say that my short-term judgment was incorrect, but that does not mean there is no long-term impact, as I mentioned above).
2) U.S. Treasury bonds with a 30-year maturity were heavily sold off, causing yields to rise sharply.
3) Yields on Japanese government bonds with 20, 30, and 40-year maturities surged sharply. As the world's third-largest economy and a major bond market, pressure in Japan's bond market could trigger a rise in global borrowing costs.
4) The U.S. House Budget Committee passed a tax and spending bill, expected to increase the deficit by trillions of dollars, meaning the U.S. government will need to increase its debt.
Regarding the current state of the U.S., it either needs to reduce taxes or increase tariffs, with a high probability of increasing tariff rates.
Looking at the four points above together, the long-term outlook is definitely a potential risk and dangerous situation. The trap has been set, waiting for the fuse to come out, to see when it will explode. (Expected within 3 months, possibly just before the interest rate cut)
From a long-term perspective: this time is likely to peak around 118,000 (expected to be completed before mid-June), then significantly drop to around 90,000, and when it takes off again, it will aim for 150,000.
As for BTC, a decline could lead to recovery, which is a strong breakout signal (yesterday I thought Moody's rating would also impact BTC, but the volatility transmitted from the U.S. stock market was minimal; I can only say that my short-term judgment was incorrect, but that does not mean there is no long-term impact, as I mentioned above).
See original
The important news these past few days is that
Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1. This is the first significant downgrade since 2011 by S&P, when U.S. stocks plummeted by 5%.
Yesterday, Bessen responded by saying that Moody's is unreliable (a rather weak rebuttal).
So tonight, let's see if Wall Street considers Moody's rating to be credible.
Pay attention tonight:
1) 21:30, the trend after the U.S. stock market opens; if Wall Street acknowledges Moody's rating, then U.S. stocks will plummet, leading to a market crash (the likelihood of a crash is very high).
I believe Moody's rating is credible; the U.S. government has no credibility, it’s all just Trump's words, changing from day to day, and Wall Street can definitely smell the trouble, so fleeing is quite normal!
2) Pay attention tonight at 22:00 for discussions between Trump, Ski, and Putin (they talked for two hours before but didn't reach an agreement, and they will continue tonight, but the likelihood is still low).
Last night, BTC quickly gained liquidity, which is a very false signal! The high probability is that it's to wipe out the short positions before continuing to drop!
Today's market analysis:
BTC current price is 104300, looking at 99825, resistance at 106000.
ETH current price is 2400, looking at 2115, resistance at 2588.
Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1. This is the first significant downgrade since 2011 by S&P, when U.S. stocks plummeted by 5%.
Yesterday, Bessen responded by saying that Moody's is unreliable (a rather weak rebuttal).
So tonight, let's see if Wall Street considers Moody's rating to be credible.
Pay attention tonight:
1) 21:30, the trend after the U.S. stock market opens; if Wall Street acknowledges Moody's rating, then U.S. stocks will plummet, leading to a market crash (the likelihood of a crash is very high).
I believe Moody's rating is credible; the U.S. government has no credibility, it’s all just Trump's words, changing from day to day, and Wall Street can definitely smell the trouble, so fleeing is quite normal!
2) Pay attention tonight at 22:00 for discussions between Trump, Ski, and Putin (they talked for two hours before but didn't reach an agreement, and they will continue tonight, but the likelihood is still low).
Last night, BTC quickly gained liquidity, which is a very false signal! The high probability is that it's to wipe out the short positions before continuing to drop!
Today's market analysis:
BTC current price is 104300, looking at 99825, resistance at 106000.
ETH current price is 2400, looking at 2115, resistance at 2588.
See original
1) Last night's speech by Powell roughly meant:
The Federal Reserve does not need to push the inflation target below 2%; returning to 2% is sufficient to stop tightening (currently at 2.3%, close to the target).
In this round of interest rate cuts, monetary policy will be more accommodative (more funds will flow in).
The expectation for rate cuts has been adjusted to only once this year, and that will be in December. (I believe the expectation has been extended; a sudden rate cut would be a big positive).
2) FTX Recovery Trust will conduct its second distribution on May 30, distributing over $5 billion to creditors (this will bring new funds into the market, but since it's at the end of the month, we still need to wait).
3) Today at 16:00 on Friday, there will be options expiration around $100,000 (there will be more volatility around this time).
4) Pay attention to the Consumer Index at 22:00 tonight (data is favorable, with little volatility).
Yesterday, I mentioned that BTC and ETH were looking for liquidity, with ETH reaching a low of 2476, very close to my mention of 2460. BTC was said to look for liquidity at 100666, with a low of 101270, also very close.
I have previously mentioned that after looking for liquidity either up or down, a rebound or correction trend will quickly follow.
Today's market analysis:
BTC is in a bottom triangle breakout trend on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts.
BTC current price is 103900, looking at 106666, with support at 102500.
ETH current price is 2560, looking at 2666, with support at 2480.
The Federal Reserve does not need to push the inflation target below 2%; returning to 2% is sufficient to stop tightening (currently at 2.3%, close to the target).
In this round of interest rate cuts, monetary policy will be more accommodative (more funds will flow in).
The expectation for rate cuts has been adjusted to only once this year, and that will be in December. (I believe the expectation has been extended; a sudden rate cut would be a big positive).
2) FTX Recovery Trust will conduct its second distribution on May 30, distributing over $5 billion to creditors (this will bring new funds into the market, but since it's at the end of the month, we still need to wait).
3) Today at 16:00 on Friday, there will be options expiration around $100,000 (there will be more volatility around this time).
4) Pay attention to the Consumer Index at 22:00 tonight (data is favorable, with little volatility).
Yesterday, I mentioned that BTC and ETH were looking for liquidity, with ETH reaching a low of 2476, very close to my mention of 2460. BTC was said to look for liquidity at 100666, with a low of 101270, also very close.
I have previously mentioned that after looking for liquidity either up or down, a rebound or correction trend will quickly follow.
Today's market analysis:
BTC is in a bottom triangle breakout trend on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts.
BTC current price is 103900, looking at 106666, with support at 102500.
ETH current price is 2560, looking at 2666, with support at 2480.
See original
Last night, I looked at the trends and thought a similar curve would emerge, but it turned out to be just that, a misjudgment!
1) The China-US tariff agreement has been reached, and next will be some smaller countries.
We can wait.
The US-Japan, US-South Korea tariff agreements have been reached, and the US-India (which is currently dealing with India-Pakistan relations, so it will take more time).
Tariff agreements with countries like Vietnam and Thailand will also be reached very soon.
I expect the announcement of the agreement to come soon. This is all positive news!
20:30 unemployment claims, slightly positive (can take a short position on a rebound here)
20:40 Powell's speech, a tough stance, the speech is negative news!
Short-term market: (If the above tariff agreements do not bring positive news, there will be a need to fill in the gap for liquidity)
Current BTC price 102931, looking at 100666, resistance at 104399
Current ETH price 2591, looking at 2460, resistance at 2650
1) The China-US tariff agreement has been reached, and next will be some smaller countries.
We can wait.
The US-Japan, US-South Korea tariff agreements have been reached, and the US-India (which is currently dealing with India-Pakistan relations, so it will take more time).
Tariff agreements with countries like Vietnam and Thailand will also be reached very soon.
I expect the announcement of the agreement to come soon. This is all positive news!
20:30 unemployment claims, slightly positive (can take a short position on a rebound here)
20:40 Powell's speech, a tough stance, the speech is negative news!
Short-term market: (If the above tariff agreements do not bring positive news, there will be a need to fill in the gap for liquidity)
Current BTC price 102931, looking at 100666, resistance at 104399
Current ETH price 2591, looking at 2460, resistance at 2650
See original
The turnover rate of uxlink has reached 1078%, so why hasn't the price increased? What is the situation?
Change of holdings? Selling the shell? Or??
Change of holdings? Selling the shell? Or??
See original
Now it’s completely about the exchange rate issue of ETH compensating for BTC.
BTC has been pressing at the 105,000 mark, waiting for ETH to catch up with the exchange rate.
When the ETH exchange rate reaches 0.3, BTC will have significant movements.
Currently, the ETH exchange rate is 0.02567, the price is 2660, and the BTC price is 103700.
If the exchange rate increases to 0.3, the ETH price will be around 2850, while BTC will still be near 105000.
So, a situation has formed where ETH rises, BTC slowly rises, ETH falls, and BTC follows the decline.
That makes it easier to trade.
Mainly focus on ETH, just buy on dips!
Range:
Current ETH price is 2670, looking at 2919, support at 2600 (buy more at 2610)
Current BTC price is 103700, looking at 105000, support at 101500
BTC has been pressing at the 105,000 mark, waiting for ETH to catch up with the exchange rate.
When the ETH exchange rate reaches 0.3, BTC will have significant movements.
Currently, the ETH exchange rate is 0.02567, the price is 2660, and the BTC price is 103700.
If the exchange rate increases to 0.3, the ETH price will be around 2850, while BTC will still be near 105000.
So, a situation has formed where ETH rises, BTC slowly rises, ETH falls, and BTC follows the decline.
That makes it easier to trade.
Mainly focus on ETH, just buy on dips!
Range:
Current ETH price is 2670, looking at 2919, support at 2600 (buy more at 2610)
Current BTC price is 103700, looking at 105000, support at 101500
See original
Has the bull run begun? Are you afraid of a wave of landing? What are you afraid of?
Everyone is saying that March in the crypto world is hellishly difficult, which is very true; the market changes rapidly, mainly because of the Trump family!!
What technical indicators? What various strategies, they are utterly useless!!
Yesterday when I was writing, Bitcoin was at 93,000; I predicted it would go to 86,000, and this morning it hit a low of 81,000, a drop of 10%; currently, Bitcoin's price is 84,000.
Has it stabilized temporarily? Or will it continue to drop?
How will the market trend next? Is there any important content to be released?
On March 4th, tonight will be very lively:
1) Trump's congressional speech
Main content: Views on tariffs/economy and related issues for the next four years, also hinting at major news to be announced.
What technical indicators? What various strategies, they are utterly useless!!
Yesterday when I was writing, Bitcoin was at 93,000; I predicted it would go to 86,000, and this morning it hit a low of 81,000, a drop of 10%; currently, Bitcoin's price is 84,000.
Has it stabilized temporarily? Or will it continue to drop?
How will the market trend next? Is there any important content to be released?
On March 4th, tonight will be very lively:
1) Trump's congressional speech
Main content: Views on tariffs/economy and related issues for the next four years, also hinting at major news to be announced.
See original
Upcoming: Tariff implementation, Trump's speech, investigation into the Federal Reserve.
Tariff implementation, Trump's speech, investigation into the Federal Reserve.
1) Last night Trump called for a rally, planning to add XRP, SOL, ADA, BTC, ETH to the national reserves, and indicated there are more considerations.

Trump's behavior feels a bit like the way he acted back then; institutions aren't buying in, it's all market retail sentiment driving the surge.
Just like I mentioned in my last article, partnering with BlackRock, after crashing the market, buying low-priced chips, then releasing various good news before selling.
Of course, whether they have exited is unknown, but they definitely benefited from this wave and have enjoyed it.
1) Last night Trump called for a rally, planning to add XRP, SOL, ADA, BTC, ETH to the national reserves, and indicated there are more considerations.

Trump's behavior feels a bit like the way he acted back then; institutions aren't buying in, it's all market retail sentiment driving the surge.
Just like I mentioned in my last article, partnering with BlackRock, after crashing the market, buying low-priced chips, then releasing various good news before selling.
Of course, whether they have exited is unknown, but they definitely benefited from this wave and have enjoyed it.
See original
From last night to this morning, it surged nearly 10,000 dollars from the low position. Is the bull market back?
Today is Saturday, and the US ETF and stock markets are closed, so there isn't much inflow; we can only watch Asia placing orders!
The drop positions are 77,500 and 1,910.
I estimate that this point should be reached within 4 days (real-time updates may change).
Let me briefly explain the reasons:
1) On March 4, there will be two events:
1) Trump's task force will hold a hearing regarding the Federal Reserve.
I mentioned this issue before; Trump wants to cut interest rates, while the Fed wants to talk after inflation reaches 2%. This is their conflict. Unstable policies are bearish.
2) Tariffs will be implemented, and Mexico, Canada, the EU, and China will all react strongly.
All risk markets will reduce positions to hedge against tariff impacts, which is bearish news. (We need to see the level of protest from various countries)
2) The White House crypto conference on March 7
This conference can be viewed from two perspectives:
1) Trump supports the development of the crypto industry and has placed leaders of cryptocurrencies in many key positions. Recently, the SEC has ended many investigations, which is a positive direction.
2) On the other hand, this conference emphasized plans to introduce a clear regulatory framework for the crypto industry while supporting innovation and promoting economic freedom.
This is Trump's Executive Order 14178, which instructs federal agencies to prioritize policies that encourage the adoption of cryptocurrencies while addressing fraud and money laundering risks.
So, the other side involves regulations, taxes, and other policies, which are somewhat unfavorable for the market.
Personally, I interpret this as a positive signal; there will be more meetings like this in the future, which will be beneficial for the crypto industry in the long run.
3) The PCE data mentioned last night has come out, which is bullish, and the market surged crazily!
Is there still a bull market? Of course, there is! When will there be a big surge? In May.
In June, the tapering will start to stop, and June and September are the most likely times for interest rate cuts.
Moreover, the peak of the bull market coincides with the peak of quantitative easing, expected to be at the end of 2025.
The reason for May is that institutions have early benefits.
So, the strategy before March to May is to take profits in batches during rebounds, pay attention to coins hitting new lows on Binance, and buy in, taking profits on rebounds!
Today is Saturday, and the US ETF and stock markets are closed, so there isn't much inflow; we can only watch Asia placing orders!
The drop positions are 77,500 and 1,910.
I estimate that this point should be reached within 4 days (real-time updates may change).
Let me briefly explain the reasons:
1) On March 4, there will be two events:
1) Trump's task force will hold a hearing regarding the Federal Reserve.
I mentioned this issue before; Trump wants to cut interest rates, while the Fed wants to talk after inflation reaches 2%. This is their conflict. Unstable policies are bearish.
2) Tariffs will be implemented, and Mexico, Canada, the EU, and China will all react strongly.
All risk markets will reduce positions to hedge against tariff impacts, which is bearish news. (We need to see the level of protest from various countries)
2) The White House crypto conference on March 7
This conference can be viewed from two perspectives:
1) Trump supports the development of the crypto industry and has placed leaders of cryptocurrencies in many key positions. Recently, the SEC has ended many investigations, which is a positive direction.
2) On the other hand, this conference emphasized plans to introduce a clear regulatory framework for the crypto industry while supporting innovation and promoting economic freedom.
This is Trump's Executive Order 14178, which instructs federal agencies to prioritize policies that encourage the adoption of cryptocurrencies while addressing fraud and money laundering risks.
So, the other side involves regulations, taxes, and other policies, which are somewhat unfavorable for the market.
Personally, I interpret this as a positive signal; there will be more meetings like this in the future, which will be beneficial for the crypto industry in the long run.
3) The PCE data mentioned last night has come out, which is bullish, and the market surged crazily!
Is there still a bull market? Of course, there is! When will there be a big surge? In May.
In June, the tapering will start to stop, and June and September are the most likely times for interest rate cuts.
Moreover, the peak of the bull market coincides with the peak of quantitative easing, expected to be at the end of 2025.
The reason for May is that institutions have early benefits.
So, the strategy before March to May is to take profits in batches during rebounds, pay attention to coins hitting new lows on Binance, and buy in, taking profits on rebounds!
See original
Tonight's PCE data is somewhat favorable, so the expectations for interest rate cuts in May's swaps are likely to increase!
Currently, institutions are offloading, and the market will be priced in soon. Personally, I believe the pricing range for Bitcoin is 72,000-75,000. It won't drop below this level!
The corresponding pricing range for Ethereum is 1,850-1,980, and it likely won't go lower than this level either! There's no need to panic and scare yourself!
If you don't dare to buy on the dip and chase after a big rise, you'll end up getting trapped. How do you expect to get results? #btc #PCE物价指数
Currently, institutions are offloading, and the market will be priced in soon. Personally, I believe the pricing range for Bitcoin is 72,000-75,000. It won't drop below this level!
The corresponding pricing range for Ethereum is 1,850-1,980, and it likely won't go lower than this level either! There's no need to panic and scare yourself!
If you don't dare to buy on the dip and chase after a big rise, you'll end up getting trapped. How do you expect to get results? #btc #PCE物价指数
See original
Big Pie’s epic black swan? It turns out to be a huge conspiracy!!!
Big Pie’s epic black swan? It turns out to be a huge conspiracy!!!
Conspiracy theories with reason:
Last time, there was a sharp pullback before and after the ETF of Bitcoin was approved.
Because Grayscale's holdings are too concentrated and it has been giving profits to major ETFs, Grayscale has been selling.
So why is BlackRock keeping selling this time?
Who should we give way to? Who should we pick up bargain chips?
Of course it is the Trump Organization!!
The reason is very simple. Trump is not only the president, he is also a businessman. So if the big pie reserve is to be passed, and Trump changes his tone, he must have bargaining chips in his hand!
Conspiracy theories with reason:
Last time, there was a sharp pullback before and after the ETF of Bitcoin was approved.
Because Grayscale's holdings are too concentrated and it has been giving profits to major ETFs, Grayscale has been selling.
So why is BlackRock keeping selling this time?
Who should we give way to? Who should we pick up bargain chips?
Of course it is the Trump Organization!!
The reason is very simple. Trump is not only the president, he is also a businessman. So if the big pie reserve is to be passed, and Trump changes his tone, he must have bargaining chips in his hand!
See original
The tragic warrior of the times: Elon Musk
The tragic warrior of the times: Elon Musk
In the torrent of history, there are always some people who go upstream like a lone boat, challenge the shackles of the times, and try to turn the tide with their own strength.
Elon Ma, an outlier in the technology world and a madman in the business world, has written a tragic and inspiring legend with his dreams and obsession. In his long history of struggle, the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) born in 2024 may be his most dramatic and tragic chapter. This is not only an extension of his personal will, but also a microcosm of a warrior of an era fighting against a huge system.
In the torrent of history, there are always some people who go upstream like a lone boat, challenge the shackles of the times, and try to turn the tide with their own strength.
Elon Ma, an outlier in the technology world and a madman in the business world, has written a tragic and inspiring legend with his dreams and obsession. In his long history of struggle, the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) born in 2024 may be his most dramatic and tragic chapter. This is not only an extension of his personal will, but also a microcosm of a warrior of an era fighting against a huge system.
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If he persists for another 8 days, Huidu will no longer sell goods and will soon achieve his goal🎯
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