Wulaoyan

"Is 69,000 BTC still worth buying?" Anyone who has this question is doomed to miss the last round of the extremely big long bull market” (1)

Key points of this article:

1. Is it still worth buying 69,000 BTC?
2. Why do you only look at the cycle and not the price when investing in BTC?
3. Why this bull market is the last chance for “US stock traders” to turn around
4. BTC means freedom.

1. The logic of fixed investment

On the evening of March 5, BTC exceeded ATH - 69,000. A friend of mine asked: Now that I have U in my hand, what else should I buy?
“The main positions are still BTC, ETH, and SOL, and small positions include buying copycats and following hot spots.”
“Is it still a good deal to buy now?”
“You will also ask this when BTC is 18,000.”
Anyone who has this question is doomed to miss out on the last extremely big bull market. The reason for this conclusion is that this scene must have happened to you many times. From the bear market to the bull market, from the bottom to the top of the mountain, there are always people raising such questions, but there are almost no positions.
For example, in June last year, after I found a new job, I started making fixed investments. At that time, in the first half of the year, I learned from the past that I had lost money due to fooling around. I contacted a few friends who were willing to make regular investments and supervised each other. Starting from July, I made regular investments in ETH and BTC every month. I posted screenshots in the group and sent out red envelopes if I sold. . At that time, Ethereum was fluctuating back and forth between 1600-1800.
On February 19, I asked one of my friends if he had adhered to the fixed investment strategy. She said she bought some, but she didn't commit because it "slumped" after she bought it, and then she gave up. This answer is expected, because before ETH was 2200, I was the only one who insisted on sending screenshots of the fixed investment to the group.
When I was working as a reporter in 2019, I interviewed a big boss in the mining industry. He said that when buying BTC, you should buy according to the cycle, not the price. I actually didn't understand this sentence at the time. After the friend above asked the above question, I understood the meaning of this sentence, which is in line with the logic of fixed investment - don't care about short-term price fluctuations, start fixed investment from the bottom until the entire big cycle is completed.
In order to let my friend understand the logic of fixed investment, I drew a sketch to explain, "I don't care about short-term fluctuations, because every fluctuation point in the short term is completely uncertain, but the upward trend of long-term fluctuations is certain. During the cycle, start fixed investment at the approximate bottom and wait until the big bull market. You can ignore the fluctuations in the middle.This is why "don't look at short-term prices, only look at cycles."

2. Is 69,000 BTC still worth buying?

The answer is yes, it is worth buying.
In the last cycle, in 2020, against the background of the flood in the United States, Grayscale GBTC triggered the "Western famous institutional bull", DeFi Summer+NFT exploded, and BTC was pushed up to 69,000 US dollars. This cycle, the BTC spot ETF was approved by the SEC + BTC halving + the United States will go from interest rate cuts to water releases in the future (cycles always repeat). Everyone knows that there will be a bull market, but they may lack certain understanding of how big the bull market will be and how long it will last. imagination.
In the last cycle, Ark Fund made predictions based on simulated portfolio allocation, believing that "institutional allocation between 2.5% and 6.5% may push the price of BTC to between 200,000 and 500,000 US dollars." Later, Ark Fund continued to adjust the forecast value. , but the general point is: in the next N years, traditional institutions will use BTC as part of their asset allocation, which will push its price to xx million US dollars.
Where is the top of this cycle? Personally, I feel that we should not use the peak of the previous bull market as the reference standard every time. This is because the driving factors of each bull market are different. In December 2017, BTC exceeded US$19,000, which was driven by the ICO of Ethereum; the bull market in 20-22 years, the reasons have been mentioned above, but the high point was US$69,000, which was 3.63 times that of the previous round. The amount of funds is far from what it was in 2017.
This cycle is different. The adoption of BTC spot ETF will no longer be something played by small circles. In the future, those who allocate BTC will be far more than the institutions such as MicroStrategy, ARK, BlackRock, and Grayscale that often appear in the current news, as well as institutions like El Salvador and Argentina. Sovereign state.
"Every institution will use BTC as an allocation asset", Ark Fund's prediction is far from coming, but it will definitely come and is on the way. The recent news that has not been verified by me is that Buffett, the world’s strongest opponent of Bitcoin, and his company Berkshire Hathaway purchased BTC through subsidiaries (you can check it yourself if you are interested); and the recent real news is , South Korean regulators are studying the compliance of South Korea’s BTC spot ETF. (It feels like BTC will save the super-involved Korean people)
The real difference between this bull market and the previous one is that the previous one was dominated by Western institutional bulls. In this round, micro-strategies continued to buy BTC, bringing more than 3 billion US dollars in floating profits, and causing the value of stocks and BTC held to spiral upward; the US SEC recognized the BTC spot ETF of BlackRock and other institutions; El Salvador , The President of Argentina publicly supports BTC. These events will bring about a snowball effect, causing more and more sovereign countries and institutions as well as a large number of retail investors to participate in a more compliant manner, such as supporting BTC spot ETFs. A friend of mine even believes that BTC may serve as a reserve asset for sovereign countries in the future, like gold (his idea may be similar to a currency war).
If we narrow it down to one point, we can deduce: How can the capital volume of the previous round of Grayscale be comparable to the capital volume of BlackRock in this round? To exaggerate the metaphor, it's like an ant and an elephant. Therefore, the conclusion is that in this bull market, the amount of funds pouring into the market will be greater. As for the price of BTC, it will open up the pattern and even become comparable to gold.
It is still a game in the small circle of the currency circle. After this round of bull market, the BTC market will be many times larger than it is now, the price fluctuations will become smaller and smaller, and the bull-bear cycle will become longer (refer to the price and price of gold in the past 20 years) cycle). This bull market is the last chance for "US stock traders" to turn around.

"Is 69,000 BTC still worth buying?" Anyone who has this question is doomed to miss out on the last round of the extremely big long bull market” (2)

Key points of this article:

1. Is it still worth buying 69,000 BTC?
2. Why do you only look at the cycle and not the price when investing in BTC?
3. Why this bull market is the last chance for “US stock traders” to turn around
4. BTC is freedom.

Continuing from the previous article:
3. Three types of currency speculation
The first is short-term speculation and striving for short-term profits. Regardless of whether they are speculating in copycats, doing swings, or opening contracts, there are always people who are good at making profits, but for the vast majority of people, their returns not only fail to beat the big pie, but also often lose money; the second is To strive for medium and long-term profits, if you hold a certain currency for a certain period of time, you will sell out the profits when the time comes; the third way is to only hold BTC because of values.
The most certain thing is to insist on investing in BTC and ETH (and possibly SOL) during the cycle. It is often said that keeping money is more difficult than being a widow, because greed is more difficult to control than sexual desire. Therefore, I always want to take advantage of large positions and hold certain copycats to gain opportunities. In the end, it is difficult to outperform BTC and ETH. Income and certainty are always inversely proportional, and risk is inversely proportional to profit. Therefore, 70% to 80% of the positions must be in BTC, ETH, and SOL. For small positions, play some copycats and local dogs to take advantage of opportunities.
Therefore, for ordinary people, it doesn’t take much. The main warehouse only needs one BTC + 10 ETH + 100 SOL (SOL may not be necessary? I’m not sure), and hold it until the real bull market. If you sell it, at least in the future You can save a few years of working.
For the first two, it is only for the purpose of making investment profits. For the third, we will focus on it below. If you are not interested, you can close this article directly after reading this.
For many people, especially wealthy people, only BTC is the safest for decades or more, far more reliable than people, real estate, and the U.S. dollar.
Take the U.S. dollar as an example. After the U.S. dollar was decoupled from gold, it was constantly being issued and depreciated (you can find the data yourself). In addition, as long as a financial crisis occurs, the Federal Reserve will print money to rescue the situation, and ordinary people's money will depreciate, which means ordinary people will pay the bill. If you know a little bit about the history of Venezuela, you will know how Chavez destroyed a good card, and you will understand why the money you have worked hard to save all your life suddenly one day is not worth as much as toilet paper.
Therefore, the price of BTC will fluctuate, but it will never be issued; houses will be damaged and the US dollar will depreciate, but no one can take away the BTC in your wallet. This is number one.
Second, BTC means freedom. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s words are inspiring but tell the truth. He believes that the future value of BTC is equivalent to human freedom.
Seeing this sentence, I couldn't suppress my excitement. Who doesn’t long for the freedom of being able to say that two plus two equals four? How much is BTC worth? ——How high the price of freedom is, how high the value of BTC is.

Most of the new tokens launched by Binance have fallen to 💩, and the wealth effect is weakening.

Awesome! Awesome!

Important dynamics on the evening of June 6
1) Market trend:
BTC fluctuated, and altcoins generally rose. Spot ETFs received a large inflow of US$900 million, the highest in the past three months.
US stocks rose sharply to a new high, and employment data increased the probability of a rate cut in September to 70%. Canada became the first G7 country to cut interest rates.
2) Market hot spots:
1. Bitget PoolX launched Taiko, staking Taiko for mining
2. Pow's KAS rose to a new high. KAS will launch KRC20, similar to the ERC20 standard, and will issue many memes in the future. You need to download the wallet Kaspium Wallet in advance.
3. ETH L2's Taiko coin issuance performance is average, and it is listed on Korea's Upbit. Taiko has a market value of US$2.5 billion and is a Chinese project with few airdrops before.

To what extent is involution and class solidification? Only Koreans can place their hopes on this thing, it’s crazy

This connotation really made me laugh out loud, hahahaha #Ashares

The logic behind the rise of #BCH :
1. EDX will support BCH trading services;
2. The current chairman of the SEC said in 2018 that BCH is not a security;
3. Go online upbit;
3. In line with the halving trend of $BCH more than 200 days later.

Pay attention to the recent changes in track currencies:
FTX concepts: $FTT, $SOL , $SRM $RAY $MAP;
DeFi sector: $COMP $AAVE $UNI $MKR $SNX;
Established Token sector: $BCH $LTC $BSV $ETC.
The market is paying attention to the progress of ARK and Fidelity’s applications for Bitcoin spot ETFs.