"Is 69,000 BTC still worth buying?" Anyone who has this question is doomed to miss the last round of the extremely big long bull market” (1)

Key points of this article:

1. Is it still worth buying 69,000 BTC?

2. Why do you only look at the cycle and not the price when investing in BTC?

3. Why this bull market is the last chance for “US stock traders” to turn around

4. BTC means freedom.

1. The logic of fixed investment

On the evening of March 5, BTC exceeded ATH - 69,000. A friend of mine asked: Now that I have U in my hand, what else should I buy?

“The main positions are still BTC, ETH, and SOL, and small positions include buying copycats and following hot spots.”

“Is it still a good deal to buy now?”

“You will also ask this when BTC is 18,000.”

Anyone who has this question is doomed to miss out on the last extremely big bull market. The reason for this conclusion is that this scene must have happened to you many times. From the bear market to the bull market, from the bottom to the top of the mountain, there are always people raising such questions, but there are almost no positions.

For example, in June last year, after I found a new job, I started making fixed investments. At that time, in the first half of the year, I learned from the past that I had lost money due to fooling around. I contacted a few friends who were willing to make regular investments and supervised each other. Starting from July, I made regular investments in ETH and BTC every month. I posted screenshots in the group and sent out red envelopes if I sold. . At that time, Ethereum was fluctuating back and forth between 1600-1800.

On February 19, I asked one of my friends if he had adhered to the fixed investment strategy. She said she bought some, but she didn't commit because it "slumped" after she bought it, and then she gave up. This answer is expected, because before ETH was 2200, I was the only one who insisted on sending screenshots of the fixed investment to the group.

When I was working as a reporter in 2019, I interviewed a big boss in the mining industry. He said that when buying BTC, you should buy according to the cycle, not the price. I actually didn't understand this sentence at the time. After the friend above asked the above question, I understood the meaning of this sentence, which is in line with the logic of fixed investment - don't care about short-term price fluctuations, start fixed investment from the bottom until the entire big cycle is completed.

In order to let my friend understand the logic of fixed investment, I drew a sketch to explain, "I don't care about short-term fluctuations, because every fluctuation point in the short term is completely uncertain, but the upward trend of long-term fluctuations is certain. During the cycle, start fixed investment at the approximate bottom and wait until the big bull market. You can ignore the fluctuations in the middle.This is why "don't look at short-term prices, only look at cycles."

2. Is 69,000 BTC still worth buying?

The answer is yes, it is worth buying.

In the last cycle, in 2020, against the background of the flood in the United States, Grayscale GBTC triggered the "Western famous institutional bull", DeFi Summer+NFT exploded, and BTC was pushed up to 69,000 US dollars. This cycle, the BTC spot ETF was approved by the SEC + BTC halving + the United States will go from interest rate cuts to water releases in the future (cycles always repeat). Everyone knows that there will be a bull market, but they may lack certain understanding of how big the bull market will be and how long it will last. imagination.

In the last cycle, Ark Fund made predictions based on simulated portfolio allocation, believing that "institutional allocation between 2.5% and 6.5% may push the price of BTC to between 200,000 and 500,000 US dollars." Later, Ark Fund continued to adjust the forecast value. , but the general point is: in the next N years, traditional institutions will use BTC as part of their asset allocation, which will push its price to xx million US dollars.

Where is the top of this cycle? Personally, I feel that we should not use the peak of the previous bull market as the reference standard every time. This is because the driving factors of each bull market are different. In December 2017, BTC exceeded US$19,000, which was driven by the ICO of Ethereum; the bull market in 20-22 years, the reasons have been mentioned above, but the high point was US$69,000, which was 3.63 times that of the previous round. The amount of funds is far from what it was in 2017.

This cycle is different. The adoption of BTC spot ETF will no longer be something played by small circles. In the future, those who allocate BTC will be far more than the institutions such as MicroStrategy, ARK, BlackRock, and Grayscale that often appear in the current news, as well as institutions like El Salvador and Argentina. Sovereign state.

"Every institution will use BTC as an allocation asset", Ark Fund's prediction is far from coming, but it will definitely come and is on the way. The recent news that has not been verified by me is that Buffett, the world’s strongest opponent of Bitcoin, and his company Berkshire Hathaway purchased BTC through subsidiaries (you can check it yourself if you are interested); and the recent real news is , South Korean regulators are studying the compliance of South Korea’s BTC spot ETF. (It feels like BTC will save the super-involved Korean people)

The real difference between this bull market and the previous one is that the previous one was dominated by Western institutional bulls. In this round, micro-strategies continued to buy BTC, bringing more than 3 billion US dollars in floating profits, and causing the value of stocks and BTC held to spiral upward; the US SEC recognized the BTC spot ETF of BlackRock and other institutions; El Salvador , The President of Argentina publicly supports BTC. These events will bring about a snowball effect, causing more and more sovereign countries and institutions as well as a large number of retail investors to participate in a more compliant manner, such as supporting BTC spot ETFs. A friend of mine even believes that BTC may serve as a reserve asset for sovereign countries in the future, like gold (his idea may be similar to a currency war).

If we narrow it down to one point, we can deduce: How can the capital volume of the previous round of Grayscale be comparable to the capital volume of BlackRock in this round? To exaggerate the metaphor, it's like an ant and an elephant. Therefore, the conclusion is that in this bull market, the amount of funds pouring into the market will be greater. As for the price of BTC, it will open up the pattern and even become comparable to gold.

It is still a game in the small circle of the currency circle. After this round of bull market, the BTC market will be many times larger than it is now, the price fluctuations will become smaller and smaller, and the bull-bear cycle will become longer (refer to the price and price of gold in the past 20 years) cycle). This bull market is the last chance for "US stock traders" to turn around.