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A concise and easy-to-understand guide to trading $BTC on Binance for newcomers!
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📊 $BTC is facing significant macroeconomic risks as President Donald Trump's tariff policy may continue to cause strong volatility in 2026. The reality of 2025 shows that tax news impacts prices just as quickly as ETF cash flow. 💬 Every time the US announces new tariffs, the crypto market reacts in a risk-averse manner. $BTC has fallen from over 100,000 USD to below 82,000 USD during tax shocks. The peak was in October 2025 with over 19 billion USD liquidated in just one day.
FOMC ✨The minutes of the December FOMC meeting just released show that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates further after the last 25 basis point cut at the end of the year. Policymakers want to maintain the current interest rate level and monitor the impact of previous easing measures. ✨The language in the minutes nearly extinguishes expectations for a rate cut in January, and even March 2026 is uncertain. The earliest scenario for the Fed's next action is being pushed to April by the market, if inflation shows clearer signs of cooling.
Aptos ✨The model data shows that the trading volume of $APT is revealing a silent accumulation process from institutions. In the final stage, the price accelerates significantly when $APT breaks through the resistance zone of $1.72 thanks to continuous buying pressure. ✨Notably, many volume spikes exceeded 40,000 tokens, confirming the participation of large funds in the breakout phase. The average 24-hour volume reached 2.76 million tokens, 11.8% higher than the 7-day MA, reinforcing the accumulation argument.
✨As 2025 comes to a close, crypto investors are focusing on 2 big questions: (1) When will the U.S. have a complete legal framework for digital assets? (2) Is quantum computing really an imminent threat to blockchain? ✨Theo Grayscale, there is only one factor that will strongly impact the market in the short term - that is the law, not quantum. ✨Grayscale expects the bipartisan crypto market structure bill to be passed in 2026. The direction is quite clear: crypto will be regulated like traditional financial markets, with regulations on registration, disclosure, classification of digital assets, and insider trading controls. This could pave the way for large financial institutions to hold crypto on their balance sheets and trade directly on the blockchain, marking a distinct phase of 'institutionalization' of the market.
✨ The precious metals market has just experienced a strong shake-up. On December 29, gold prices fell by more than 5%, marking the largest daily drop in over 2 months. Silver, platinum, and palladium also plummeted by 15–16% after a period of overheating and reaching new highs in the month. ✨ Notably, crypto is moving in the opposite direction. While gold and silver are being sold off, $BTC at one point surpassed $90,000, while $ETH approached $3,000. Some traders believe that capital is temporarily leaving precious metals to seek opportunities in riskier assets, especially crypto.
e-CNY ✨The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a new digital yuan (e-CNY) framework from January 1st, allowing commercial banks to pay interest on e-CNY balances. This move aims to promote the widespread use of the national digital currency. ✨Theo PBOC, e-CNY will be transitioned from the role of digital cash to digital deposits, essentially becoming a liability of commercial banks, operating under an account model. This helps e-CNY to have additional functions of value storage, payment, and even supports cross-border transactions.
✨A new report from TRM Labs indicates that over 35 million USD in crypto stolen from LastPass users has been systematically laundered, with traces leading to cybercrime groups in Russia. The origin of these withdrawals is believed to have started from the LastPass breach in 2022, but the withdrawal activity has continued until the end of 2025. ✨According to on-chain analysis, hackers continuously transfer altcoins to $BTC , then use mixing tools like CoinJoin and Wasabi Wallet to obscure transaction history. Nevertheless, TRM Labs has still identified a consistent on-chain behavioral signature, indicating that this is a coordinated group, not isolated attacks.
✨The U.S. Congress is preparing to consider a bipartisan bill on the structure of the crypto market initiated by Senator Cynthia Lummis in January 2026. This is seen as a major turning point, aimed at providing legal clarity for the digital asset industry, keeping innovation in the U.S. instead of flowing abroad. ✨Although she announced she would not run for re-election, Ms. Lummis is still pushing the bill until the last minute. Many figures in the industry and regulators believe that the U.S. is closer than ever to a unified legal framework for crypto, ending the phase of 'guessing the law while doing.'
US STAKING CRYPTO TAX: A STORY NOT JUST FOR THE US
STAKING CRYPTO
✨The debate in the US about taxing foreign staking crypto is like a “policy laboratory” that could set a global precedent. Although the brothers are not US citizens, the ripple effects of these decisions are unavoidable. ✨If the IRS tightens its stance, exchanges and staking protocols may be forced to adjust their services globally. This directly impacts how taxes are reported, how staking rewards are distributed, and even whether international users will still be allowed to participate.
✨ Bitcoin has just failed when testing the $89,000 area, leading to over 260 million USD in futures positions being liquidated. BTC Open Interest dropped from 47 billion USD to 42 billion USD, the lowest level in 8 months. This indicates that the market is actively reducing leverage, not yet a signal of a strong crash. ✨ ETF withdrawals, sentiment remains cautious Bitcoin spot ETF recorded 5 consecutive days of net selling, totaling 825 million USD. This figure is not large compared to the market scale, but reflects cautious sentiment as the global economic context remains unstable and the excitement from October is gradually cooling.
GOOGLE TRENDS ✨ Google Trends data shows that interest in the keyword 'crypto' globally is at its lowest point in a year. The global search index is currently around 26/100, just slightly above the year's low of 24. In the US alone, search volume has hit a one-year low as 2025 gradually comes to a close. ✨This reflects the sentiment of retail investors being very weak. After the flash crash in October, when nearly 20 billion USD of leveraged positions were liquidated and many altcoins dropped by up to 99% in just one day, market confidence has not really recovered.
✨ $XRP decreased by about 1.6% in 24 hours, and -16% compared to last month. ✨ The price is currently fluctuating near the bottom of the descending triangle model – a structure often associated with further downside risk, although it has not officially broken down. 🔍 3 alarming signals have appeared simultaneously: ✨ Weak retail: Prices have bounced slightly but MFI has decreased, indicating that retail traders are taking the opportunity to sell on each rebound. ✨ Long-term holders are also selling: The group of wallets holding $XRP for 2–3 years has dropped significantly from ~14% to ~5.6% of the total supply.
✨After 6 consecutive days of significant capital outflows, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs recorded their first net inflow in November 2025. In total, ETF $BTC attracted 240 million USD, while ETF $ETH recorded 12.5 million USD, reversing from nearly 2.9 billion USD in capital outflows previously. ✨The cash flow mainly comes from large funds IBIT (BlackRock) leading with 112.44 million USD, followed by FBTC (61.64 million USD) and ARKB (60.44 million USD). Notably, no Bitcoin ETF experienced capital outflows on this day, indicating that institutional sentiment has become less negative.
✨The political theme is always controversial in crypto, especially when Donald Trump is often seen as the 'crypto-friendly president', while Joe Biden's administration is considered tougher. However, if we overlook the statements and look at the price data, the picture is much more complex. ✨Under Biden, $BTC had the strongest increase: in 2021 it rose ~65%, in 2023 it rose 155%, and in 2024 it continued to rise by 120.7%. In contrast, by the end of 2025 (under Trump's new term), Bitcoin dropped nearly 5%, despite previously reaching highs of ~$109,000 and then $125,761 in the year.
MICROSTRATEGY ✨ Strategy currently holds 671,268 $BTC , accounting for over 3.2% of the circulating Bitcoin supply. The company has spent over 50 billion USD to buy BTC, mostly through debt and stock issuance, while software revenue each year is only about 460 million USD. In fact, over 95% of the company's value depends on the price of $BTC . ✨ Pressure from financial structure: Strategy is carrying >8.2 billion USD in convertible bonds and ~7.5 billion USD in preferred stock, with payment obligations of about 779 million USD/year. The average cost of purchasing BTC is around $74,972, and many recent purchases occurred close to the peak of Q4/2025. When $BTC dropped ~20% recently, MSTR shares halved, reflecting leverage risk.
US GDP The latest US GDP data shows that the economy continues to grow quite steadily. The main drivers come from strong consumer spending and a stable labor market. Inflation has cooled compared to before, but high interest rates remain a significant risk for growth in the near future. 💡 Market perspective: The US economy is 'moving slowly but surely', but is extremely sensitive to Fed policy. Any signals related to interest rates could lead to significant market volatility.
✨Lithuania – a small country in the EU – is preparing to implement the strictest crypto control campaign in the region. From 01/01/2026, all crypto platforms without a MiCA license that still allow registration or process transactions will be considered illegal activities. ✨According to the Central Bank of Lithuania, there are currently more than 370 registered crypto businesses, but only about 120 companies are actually operating. Notably, fewer than 10% (around 30 entities) have submitted applications for a MiCA license, meaning hundreds of businesses are facing significant legal risks.
BTC ✨While quantum computers are still a distant concern, the community $BTC is currently engaged in a heated debate about a very imminent risk: a BIP proposal named “The Cat”. The goal of this BIP is to address the spam UTXO issue from Ordinals and Bitcoin Stamps – the cause of Bitcoin's UTXO set doubling to over 160 million in 2023. ✨The main idea of “The Cat” is to label non-monetary UTXOs (NMU) – primarily small outputs under 1,000 satoshis used for data storage – and freeze them permanently, preventing any further spending. This approach helps reduce the burden on nodes and miners, as currently 30–50% of UTXOs are only used to store data, not for payments.