🔥 Current Status: Bulls are fiercely attacking, key position battle!
Latest Quote: $107,200 (24-hour increase nearly 1.6%), successfully rebounding from the $104k-$105k demand zone, three consecutive daily gains.
Technical Signals: 4-hour chart shows structural breakout (BOS) + bullish feature change (CHoCH), institutional order flow turns bullish, buyers regain the steering wheel.
Critical juncture: Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level ($106,706) becomes today's focus! If the daily closes firmly here, the short-term explosive mode will be activated 🚀.
📊 Technical Analysis: Support is solid as a rock, resistance is trembling?
>>> Key Position
Support: $105,514 (Fibonacci 0.5) → $104,222 → $100,000 (psychological defense line + 2025 opening price, breaking this may lead to a crash).
Resistance: $107,662 (Keltner upper band) → $108,181 (Fibonacci 0.236) → $110,000 (breakthrough = takeoff signal).
>>> Indicator Madness
Momentum explosion: 4-hour momentum value +1,786 (new high in a week), 30-minute AO turns green, DMI shows +DI crushing -DI, ADX rises to 31 (trend strengthens).
Volume support: Daily OBV ends lying flat and begins to rise, signs of accumulating chips are obvious! Coupled with Bollinger Bands opening, volatility is about to explode 💥.
🌍 Fundamentals: Whales + national teams are crazily bottom-fishing!
Institutional FOMO: MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, etc. are frantically buying, Brazilian company Meliuz issues stock to raise funds to buy BTC, 'hedging fiat currency devaluation' becomes a new narrative.
National Entry:
→ Trump is working on 'U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve' (a solid tool for geopolitical games).
→ Pakistan launches national mining pool + AI mining, hoarding coins to resist inflation.
Risk Warning:
→ Sino-US 55% tariff impact on the global economy! If inflation rebounds, the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts (liquidity is bearish).
→ ETF funds slightly outflowing (e.g., Fidelity withdrew $96 million in a single day), but long-term allocation demand remains unchanged.
🔮 Future Prediction: A three-act play is about to unfold!
>>> Short Term (within 1 month)
- Scenario A (60%): Breakthrough $108,181 → Sweep above $110k stop-loss orders → Sprint to $112k-$120k.
Scenario B (30%): $105k-$108k oscillation washout, wait for the Federal Reserve to turn dovish or ETF large funds to flow back.
Scenario C (10%): Fall below $100k → Panic selling → Deep squat to $92k (strong support).
Operation: Place orders at $105,500 for low absorption, chase upward if breaking $108,200!
Mid-term (Q3-Q4 2025)
Halving effect fermentation: Historical patterns lag by 12-18 months, second half of 2025 = explosive gold window.
Target Price:
→ Conservative: $150k (Standard Chartered Bank model).
→ Crazy scenario: $180k-$220k (gold market cap benchmark + institutional FOMO).
Ultimate Peak: $180k-$250k (highest probability in 2025 Q4).
Long Term (after 2026)
If replacing gold with 50% market cap → $924k (2030 target, gold assumed at $5000/ounce).
Black Swan Warning: Global recession + regulatory strangulation → drop back to $80k (but long-term is still a buying point).
💎 Summary
"Bulls are in control, but don't rush in mindlessly!"
- Short-term: Keep a close eye on $106,706 and $108,181, increase positions if breaking above, reduce positions if falling below $105k.
- Long-term: Q3 pullback is a golden pit, **blindly invest below $100k**, target $150k+.
- Risk Hedge: Hold spot, be cautious with high leverage on contracts! Pay attention to the fermentation of Italian tariffs + Federal Reserve's rhetoric.