苏禾

Twitter sync updates original content: @yest17522345. The biggest challenge in life is to have a corrective feedback loop. This is particularly evident in trading, and I hope everyone can hold up their own holy grail.

The weekly pullback of XRP is so perfect, while Bitcoin has already reached a new high. It is waiting for the right person to ignite it, the third wave on the weekly level.

Woken up by Trump's stop-loss news, breaking through the 4-hour downtrend line, and a 15-minute level buy signal, I joined the ranks supporting Trump without hesitation.

Bitcoin is in a wide range fluctuation at the 4-hour level. Regardless of whether it rises or falls, most altcoins are either consolidating sideways or slightly increasing. As long as Bitcoin experiences a pullback, it will retract relatively quickly. During this phase, shorting altcoins that are clearly diverging is still a place with a high win rate and profit/loss ratio, for example: $TRUMP $INIT

$trump rebound after 4h downtrend, the larger trend is also bearish, can it be sent down?

$ETH has broken below the previous low at the 4H level, and the speed of the decline is also accelerating.
The direction here should primarily focus on a short-term bearish outlook, with short positions near the resistance level at the 4H level, which is around 2515-2530.
However, the overall larger direction is in an upward trend, so the expectation is to leave an upper shadow at the position near 2530 for short positions, and to reduce positions and take profits in batches as it moves down to around 2485.

🐟 After a significant rally, the pullback is just a strong pullback (consolidation). Generally, it requires at least two short-term periods to wait for such a strong pullback. Here, we encounter a short-term resistance level, pulling back to form a 1-hour level converging triangle. The main strategy remains to focus on buying low. The intraday short-term support range is 93700-94200, and the intraday resistance range is 95200-95500. 🐟 Two key sectors to focus on: one is the AI series, which dominates the gainers list and is mostly AI-related, and the other is the MEME series. The MEME series has become an alternative mutation point in this bull market, turning into a meat grinder for capital, but it will also create many opportunities. 🐟 Another target: IP. The space and time for the daily pullback are just right, and this could potentially be the starting point for a left-side bottom.

👂
$BTC 4H4 wave is in a correction, forming a standard bottom formation with a pin-style pullback to the moving average. There is a possibility of one to two bullish 4h candles continuing during the day, but overall it is in a sideways correction, and the probability of a breakout is low.
The support range to watch today is 93622-93787.
The resistance range is 94880-95500.

👂
On today's gain list, chillguy and griffain have completed effective 4h level continuations. Generally, the more assets that successfully continue this pattern, the more similar assets will have a catch-up rally.

The top four in the increase ranking are all observation areas, echoing Wang Duoyu's saying, hurry up and buy, if you don't buy now, you won't be able to buy it later, quick quick quick.

$INIT Binance has finally launched a new coin with a circulating market value of over 100 million, which can maintain such a smooth 1-hour upward trend. In this macro environment, it is highly likely that it hasn't finished yet; once it breaks out of this consolidation, it can continue to surge.

Review is an essential part of trading.
For medium to long-term trend trading, based on my personal trading experience, before forming muscle memory, it is necessary to make written records and reviews of:
20-day trend lines, trading volume, gaps, rhythm, Fibonacci levels, MACD, pressure at various levels, and the structural trends of high-level candlesticks.

Things that make money are all on the Binance gainers list. As long as the trading volume increases and there is no significant pullback, and it consolidates down, there is basically a second wave. jellyjelly
These are basically all like this. The next one that meets this expectation is GRIFFAIN.

$ETH restoring people's confidence only requires one big bullish candle; if one isn't enough, then two; if two isn't enough, then three. But with the daily chart looking like this, believing in its reversal is like believing a gambler when they say they quit gambling; it requires the test of time. Here, it's very likely that it won't immediately bounce back up, just like it takes three years of not gambling to believe that a gambler has truly quit.

$AERGO funding rate -0.8%, but there is no smooth downward trend. Moreover, it is still performing relatively strong in the 1h trend market, and this coin is very likely to have another wave of continuation. Although most altcoins have room to short, it is obviously not the right moment now.

How to find a high win-rate technical pattern?
Taking a long position on $AERGO as an example, what kind of technical pattern will have a high win rate?
In my personal experience, the win rate of a smooth trend technical pattern is relatively high.
What is a smooth trend?
Trends are divided into three categories: smooth trends, converging trends, and oscillating trends. Although there are three types of trends, they are actually different evolutions of a cryptocurrency within a trend; there is no permanent rhythm, only a changing market.
The definition of a trend is quite simple: it is merely the continuous rise of high and low points. The main key points of the three types of trends lie in the distinction of primary and secondary rhythms, such as the proportion of pullback space and the duration of time.
A smooth trend is primarily characterized by a slow pullback relative to the upward rhythm on the left side, where the space typically does not exceed 50%, and the pullback space at this trend level will gradually become smaller until the acceleration divergence at this level.
Taking AERGO as an example, the first wave of rebound is observed; the time and space of the first pullback are just right, and the second wave after the upward movement is a converging trend accelerating. The win rate for participating in the second wave will be very high.

The psychological journey evolves much faster in the cryptocurrency market than in other markets.

Trump hasn't come out to speak yet, and the pancake has already laid flat. The so-called support and resistance have little meaning in the current market situation; support and resistance are only significantly referenced when liquidity is good.

Four Seasons Trading Rules
I personally believe that the most important aspect of trading is position management. The simplest principle for achieving rapid growth with small capital is to minimize losses when things go wrong and maximize gains when things go well. Therefore, finding your own 'summer' is very important.
The Four Seasons Trading Rules are based on trading levels, candlestick rhythm, moving average divergence, and other reference indicators to define your own trading summer.
Currently, BTC is in a seasonal transition from bullish autumn to winter at the 4-hour level, so there will be repeated 'hot and cold alternations' at the 15-minute level. For trend trading, one should wait until the 4-hour chart shows a clear signal of spring before participating, which means looking for a certain clear 15-minute breakout after a wave at the 83,000-85,000 level.

Four Seasons Trading Rules
Spring for sowing, summer for managing, autumn for harvesting, winter for resting.
BTC is currently showing a significant slowdown in the upward momentum on the 4-hour level, facing daily bearish pressure, with four consecutive daily candles having long upper shadows.
Thus, we have entered a phase of rest for the bulls at the 4-hour level, waiting for this level's winter to pass and spring to arrive.
For the bears, this is a potential opportunity for sowing in spring, but spring weather is unpredictable, so only a tentative sowing of some pest-resistant small crops can be attempted.
Observe the watershed around 82500, whose summer will it be?

Every market cycle gives birth to some independent coins outside the market, such as $TRB , which rises at a 45-degree angle along the daily line until the daily line accelerates, overall increasing more than 40 times.
These coins have a commonality: powerful proactive market makers drive overall market sentiment. So how to distinguish the strong ones? It's by continuing to rise along a certain level (above the daily line) with overall weak pullbacks, reflected in movement above the moving average, rarely touching the moving average, and essentially rebounding immediately upon contact.
Why am I optimistic about $IP? Many people say that its market capitalization is large or its fundamentals are average, but based on the technical trends I see, it is strong. It is one of the few altcoins that performs relatively well in a bear market (rising a lot, falling little, and when it does fall, it does so slowly while rising quickly).
Of course, having an opinion is one thing, trading is another. Even if I am very optimistic, I will wait for right-side trading signals before buying. However, if a buying point appears at the 4-hour level or above, I will definitely participate.