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As of August 17, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) trades between $117,000 and $120,000, but speculation about a significant price correction is rife. Some analysts and posts on X have raised concerns about a potential 40% drop in BTC’s price this month or next, potentially bringing it to $70,000–$84,500. While these predictions stem from credible technical and market signals, they are far from certain. Here’s a breakdown of the factors fueling this speculation and why caution is warranted.
Signals Pointing to a Potential Drop
Technical analysis provides several bearish indicators. A rising wedge pattern on the daily chart, as noted by analyst Captain Faibik, suggests weakening momentum, with a possible decline below $100,000 if support breaks. Similarly, a “Three Pushes to a High” pattern on Bollinger Bands indicates fading buying strength, with $102,900 as a critical level to watch. Bearish divergences on RSI across daily and weekly charts further hint at a correction, with some analysts like OrderAndFlow pointing to a potential swing failure.
Key support levels at $116,300 (aligned with Fibonacci levels and the 200-day EMA) and $97,041–$93,806 are under scrutiny. A breach could drive prices toward $84,500 or even $70,000, aligning with a 30–40% drop. Overbought conditions, evidenced by weekly stochastics and a high Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading, also suggest profit-taking could trigger a pullback.
Market dynamics add weight to the bearish case. Recent liquidations of over $800 million in long positions during a drop from $123,000 to $117,700 reflect heavy selling pressure. Declining open interest in CME Bitcoin futures (from $17.51 billion to $15.69 billion) and an ask-dominated spot orderbook signal reduced bullish conviction. Macroeconomic factors, like hotter-than-expected inflation data in July 2025 and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments against expanding the U.S. bitcoin reserve, have also dampened sentiment.
Why It’s Not 100% Certain
Despite these signals, a 40% drop is not guaranteed. Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend remains intact, with higher timeframe charts showing resilience. Contrarian indicators, like extreme negative sentiment noted by Santiment after a 15% drop to $95,000 in 2024, suggest potential reversals if pessimism peaks. A TD Sequential buy signal on the 4-hour chart, as highlighted by Ali Martinez, further hints at possible short-term recovery.
External factors, such as Federal Reserve policy shifts or unexpected market catalysts, could alter BTC’s trajectory. The cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile, and while technicals and sentiment provide clues, they don’t ensure outcomes. Historical corrections have often been followed by rapid recoveries, making precise predictions challenging.
What to Watch
Traders should monitor key levels: resistance at $120,000 and $126,000, and support at $116,300, $97,041–$93,806, and $70,000. On-chain data, ETF flows, and macroeconomic developments will also play a role. While a 40% drop is plausible based on current signals, it’s not a foregone conclusion. Investors should conduct thorough research, manage risk, and avoid acting solely on speculative forecasts.
In conclusion, while bearish indicators suggest a potential 40% BTC price drop in August or September 2025, the outcome is far from certain. Combining technical analysis with market sentiment and external news can help navigate this uncertainty, but no prediction is foolproof in the volatile world of cryptocurrency.

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Giveaway
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$PEPE

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$XRP | #CryptoAlert #XRP #MarketManipulation

🔍 Shocking Data from an XRP Validator

Independent $XRP Ledger validator “Grape” claims real-time monitoring since July 12, 2025, shows patterns that look like wash trading — massive transfers between exchanges, rapid orders appearing/disappearing, and suspicious bursts of activity.

💣 Why It Matters:

1️⃣ Fake volume boosts $XRP’s perceived liquidity.

2️⃣ Can sway price indexes across platforms.

3️⃣ Tricks traders & bots into bad positions.

📉 Price Pressure Mystery

While $BTC and $ETH rally, $XRP keeps getting slammed by sudden sell walls right after upward moves — timing that matches the alleged fake volume spikes. The theory? Keeping price low to accumulate cheap $XRP before a big breakout.

⚠️ Regulatory Gap

In traditional finance, wash trading = illegal 🚫. In crypto? Minimal oversight — a playground for manipulators.

💡 Takeaway:

Numbers can lie. Don’t trust volume alone — dig deeper, stay alert, and trade smart.

🔥 Your Turn:

Do you think $XRP’s price is being held down on purpose?

#CryptoNews #XRPLedger #Altcoins #WashTrading #DYOR