CryptoChan-1

#BTC: The historical peak of the Relative Unrealized Profit indicator is also continuously declining, and its decay process can be well fitted by the exponential decay function y(x) = a + be^(-cx)

The current value of this indicator is 54%, and the fitted value of the historical peak is 71%

BTC: Relative Unrealized Profit indicator refers to the percentage of total floating profit of all BTC on-chain relative to the total market capitalization of spot (measured in USD)

In June 2020, this indicator broke 0.12, and then #BTC had a small surge.
In September 2020, this indicator broke 0.12, and then #BTC had a big surge.
In October 2024, this indicator broke 0.12, and then #BTC had a small surge.
Recently, this indicator broke 0.12.

The indicator in the chart represents the concentration of long-term holders (holding period > 155 days) in the range of ±10% of the Bitcoin spot price. That is, among the chips of long-term holders, the number of chips with a buying cost within ±10% of the spot price accounts for a percentage of the total chips held by long-term holders.

Currently, the 'copper-gold price ratio' is at a historical low, and the 'Ethereum-Bitcoin price ratio' is also at a historical low.

It is worth mentioning that historically, the two have been quite positively correlated (Bitcoin is 'digital gold', could Ethereum be 'digital pure copper'? 🌚)

Yesterday, #BTC dropped to a low of $98,200
The cost price for short-term investors is $98,217

The black line in the chart represents the BTC price; the blue line represents the average purchase price of on-chain short-term investors (holding coins for less than 155 days)

【Xuanxue Kezhou Series】 Engrave #BTC Bull Market Final Trend——

The bottom of this pullback is engraved at the end of June
The top of the next trend is engraved in mid-August
The bottom of the next pullback is engraved at the end of August to early September
The final bull peak is engraved from mid-September to mid-October

The black line in the chart represents the BTC: MVRV indicator for the ⟨20 years - present⟩ segment; the blue line represents the BTC: MVRV indicator for the ⟨16-21 years⟩ segment; the red line represents the BTC: MVRV indicator for the ⟨12-17 years⟩ segment. The three segments align the halving days of BTC mining output for their respective cycles

Note: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) refers to the ratio of Bitcoin's total market value to its total purchase cost.

After the peak of the green bars at the beginning of 2017, about 9 months to the Bull Peak in 2021. After the peak of the green bars at the beginning of 2021, about 10 months to the Bull Peak. The current peak of the green bars has passed for about 7.3 months.

The black line at the top of the chart represents the #BTC price; the lower green bars represent the percentage of BTC that has not moved on-chain for 3-5 years out of the total supply. The BTC of different age groups is weighted by the market value of the total purchase cost (Realized Cap) of that age group to eliminate the issue of ancient whale holdings disproportionately affecting the current ratio.

#BTC【Seven Finger Top Chart】Update, Current——

🔴 Bull Top Indicator Value: $147,285
🟠 Bull Top Indicator Value: $149,121
🟡 Bull Top Indicator Value: $155,352
🟢 Bull Top Indicator Value: $160,090
🔵 Bull Top Indicator Value: $200,793
🟣 Bull Top Indicator Value: $205,829
🟤 Bull Top Indicator Value: $226,430

It is worth mentioning that points are awarded when the coin price breaks through the above 7 indicators (calculated on a daily basis, with 0 points for breaking through 0 indicators on the day, 1 point for breaking through 1 indicator, and so on for accumulation)——

During the bull top period of 2013, total points were 129
During the bull top period of 2017, total points were 103
During the first peak of 2021, total points were 101
Current total points are 0

Note:
🔴 Indicator is Std-Adjusted MVRV Price, designed based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator;
🟠 Indicator is Std-Adjusted STH-MVRV Price, designed based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator;
🟡 Indicator is Fib-Adjusted Balanced Price, designed by scaling the Bitcoin Balanced Price using Fibonacci multiples;
🟢 Indicator is Tradable Realized Price, designed based on the Realized Market Cap and on-chain liquidity chips;
🔵 Indicator is Curve-Fitted Median MVRV Price, designed by curve (function) fitting of the peak cycles of Bitcoin's median MVRV;
🟣 Indicator is Fib-Adjusted Miner Revenue Price, designed by scaling Bitcoin miners' dollar revenue using Fibonacci multiples;
🟤 Indicator is Fib-Adjusted Transferred Price, designed by scaling the Bitcoin Transferred Price using Fibonacci multiples.

#BTC Breakthrough $7w+ , the price of the coin touches +1.0σ
#BTC Breakthrough $10w+ , the price of the coin touches +1.0σ
Currently, +1.0σ (light green line) value is $117,114

Black line: Bitcoin price
+2.0σ: Bitcoin realized price weighted by the positive 2 standard deviations of the historical cumulative average value of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
+1.0σ: Bitcoin realized price weighted by the positive 1 standard deviation of the historical cumulative average value of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
Mean: Bitcoin realized price weighted by the ±0 standard deviations of the historical cumulative average value of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
-0.5σ: Bitcoin realized price weighted by the negative 0.5 standard deviations of the historical cumulative average value of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator
-1.0σ: Bitcoin realized price weighted by the negative 1 standard deviation of the historical cumulative average value of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator

#BTC【Seven-Line Score Peak Escaping Method】Brief Introduction

Current——
Std-Adjusted MVRV Price: $145,455
Std-Adjusted STH-MVRV Price: $148,281
Fib-Adjusted Balanced Price: $158,064
Tradable Realized Price: $162,894
Curve-Fitted Median MVRV Price: $199,089
Fib-Adjusted Miner Revenue Price: $204,838
Fib-Adjusted Transferred Price: $223,862

It is worth mentioning——
Near the 2013 bull peak, the price broke through 7 lines a total of 129 times
Near the 2017 bull peak, the price broke through 7 lines a total of 103 times
Near the first peak of 2021, the price broke through 7 lines a total of 101 times

Note:
1⃣ Std-Adjusted MVRV Price is derived from the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator;
2⃣ Std-Adjusted STH-MVRV Price is derived from the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator;
3⃣ Fib-Adjusted Balanced Price is derived from multiplying the Bitcoin Balanced Price by Fibonacci sequence factors;
4⃣ Tradable Realized Price is derived from the realized market cap and on-chain liquidity chips;
5⃣ Curve-Fitted Median MVRV Price is derived from curve (function) fitting of the historical peak values of Bitcoin median MVRV over cycles;
6⃣ Fib-Adjusted Miner Revenue Price is derived from multiplying the dollar income of Bitcoin miners by Fibonacci sequence factors;
7⃣ Fib-Adjusted Transferred Price is derived from multiplying the Bitcoin Transferred Price by Fibonacci sequence factors.