0x悟道

#晒出你的交易 $VIRTUAL
Optimistic about the empowerment and layout of virtual, will continue to increase positions

#palu The King of Bad Memes This meme is really interesting

Strongly related to Binance, pure meme attribute, market value of more than 3M, high odds

Everyone is Palu

30M in the short term

In fact, there is no absolute distinction between 'good coins' and 'bad coins'

Good coins can also lead to losses, like the $BGB with a value of $SOL 8.5 at 290
When it rises, it's called the Ethereum killer, BGB is great; when it falls, countless people curse

The most important thing in trading coins is to seize the right timing, enter early, and take profits
This bull market seems to not reward diamond hands
Even so-called junk coins can be operated well and make a fortune

Buying low and selling high is the iron law of capital markets
If you're inexperienced, practice more. Let's encourage each other.

Now almost everyone is criticizing Ethereum $ETH and can provide a thousand bearish reasons, which is not hard to understand.

Because when $sol dropped to 8 dollars, it went through the same treatment. Garbage crash chain, excessive centralization, ecological desert...

The cryptocurrency world has always been determined by price theory; if it doesn't rise, it's the original sin.

But investing ultimately comes down to the investment in cognition; delayed analysis is like delayed justice.

When the next big trend forms, how should we grasp it?

The biggest feeling the market gives me now is: fragmentation.

Bitcoin ecology: Various protocols exploded, inscriptions, runes, lightning networks, RGB, fractal networks...

Ethereum ecology: Various L2s exploded, Arbitrum, Optimism, Zksync, StarkNet, Base, Linea, Scroll... and a bunch of others are waiting in line to go online

Other sectors: Various VC coins exploded, other first-layer public chains, AI, RWA, DePIN, modularization...

Meme sector: PEPE, BONK, NOT, WIF, NEIRO, BOME, DOGS... Binance alone cannot list them all, and tens of thousands of new coins are generated every day in the primary market

The explosion of the ecology is a good thing, but the funds in the market cannot handle such a large volume, and the liquidity can only be dispersed and dispersed again...

At present, the general bull market can only hope that the Federal Reserve will further release water, the war will ease, and the dust will settle on the US election. We are optimistic about the market in November.

BTC first time 60000u eth3800u
BTC second time 60000u eth3100u
BTC third time 60000u eth2800u
BTC fourth time 60000u eth2400u

It is really about to break, has Ethereum been abandoned? 😭

This cycle, from Bitcoin ecology to Solana ecology, and from the recent Ton ecology to Sui ecology, all performed very well, except Ethereum🤡

Dostoyevsky said in "Nedochika":
People who have lacked love since childhood
will madly give love to those who have never lacked love,
just like a pauper
donating to a billionaire.

If you observe, you will find that this phenomenon is so common in real life and even in the cryptocurrency circle.

This is the current status of the cryptocurrency industry!

Total market value: 2.24 trillion
BTC+ETH market value: 1.4 trillion (BTC=1.26 trillion, ETH=0.31 trillion)
Stablecoin market value: 0.17 trillion
Other altcoin market value: 0.5 trillion
BTC+ETH accounts for 70%, stablecoin accounts for 7.6%, and other altcoins account for
22.3%.

Compared with the previous bull market, $BTC increased by 4.1 times, $ETH increased by 3.9 times, and other altcoins increased by 3 times.

After 4 years of bull and bear cycles, Ethereum did not outperform Bitcoin, and altcoins did not outperform
Ethereum.

The average increase of Bitcoin and Ethereum is about 4 times. Although the total market value of altcoins has increased by 3 times, the number has increased by more than 30 times. Many altcoins have fallen for a long time, and the decline in the past six months has exceeded 80-90%, and the mainstream altcoins have also fallen by 60-80%. (It's really miserable to have a lot of copycats
😭
)

BTC+ETH market capitalization accounts for 70% continuously, which has been basically the case for the past 6 years. Therefore, except for the main bull market or the outbreak of new sectors, BTC+ETH should account for 70% or even 80% to 90% of crypto holdings to ensure investment safety.

Now that the Fed has finally cut interest rates, combined with multiple factors, the market is coming. Before the end of the year, we should pay more attention to market dynamics and seize new opportunities and outbreak points. Do you think the copycat season is coming? Welcome to discuss

As a small blogger with no influence, I still can't help but complain about Binance's wave of listing behavior. Since there are no good coins, they won't list them. Do they have to pick the best from the worst? It is obvious that Binance's listing standards are getting lower and lower. Once the bad coins drive out the good coins, there will be no positive impact on the industry. I think this is short-sighted.

I have no intention of slandering, and I can't do it. I just think that the greater the impact, the greater the responsibility. I hope Binance will get better and better.

Quote a transcript of an interview with He Yi:

Dialogue with He Yi: What are the standards for Binance investment and listing? There is no real strong innovation in this bull market
https://chaincatcher.com/article/2133469

Hoarding coins only applies to Bitcoin. The sooner you establish this knowledge, the better.

Especially for web3 newcomers who have just entered the circle, many of them must have heard of the legendary deeds of someone (this OG or that big guy) who got rich by hoarding coins. The people who brought him into the circle even emphasized that the most reliable way to make money in the currency circle is to hoard coins, but their understanding of hoarding coins may not be clear. $BTC

Will you spend 0.014 $BTC to buy an iPhone 16 this year?

#小非农增幅创3年多新低

Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury bond finally ended the longest inversion in history. From July 2022 to August 2024, it lasted a total of 783 days.

The direct reason is that the latest PMI and job vacancy data have been continuously below expectations.

Many people don't understand what the inverted yield curve is. Let me explain briefly. Under normal circumstances, the yield of long-term bonds is higher than that of short-term bonds. Because there are more uncertainties in long-term bonds, funds require higher risk compensation, that is, the yield curve will go up. But in the United States, this normal situation often reflects a counter-cyclical trend. The Fed began to raise interest rates because inflation was too high, and the market was worried about the risk of corporate short-term defaults, so it required higher risk compensation for short-term bonds. U.S. Treasury bonds also began to rise at this time, but in the interest rate hike cycle, the global dollar flowed back to the United States, and liquidity was super abundant. At this stage, the U.S. economy will tend to prosper.

The inverted curve becomes a positive hexagram, which means that the Fed is about to start cutting interest rates. Why cut interest rates? Because the economy has shown signs of recession, future expectations are highly uncertain, including interest rate cuts, higher unemployment, and declining consumption. Therefore, funds require higher risk compensation for long-term government bonds, so the inversion ends and the yield curve goes up again.

Does a rate cut necessarily mean a recession? The answer can only be found in history. After 1980, the Federal Reserve has carried out four relief-style rate cuts and five preventive rate cuts, and the US Treasury bond has obviously changed from an inverted to a positive one six times. Among them, the recessions from 1980 to 1981, 2000, and 2007 were relatively long, lasting from 1 to 1.5 years. 20 years is a special case and is not considered. Only the one in 1989 was relatively short, about half a year. In addition, there was a very short inversion in 1998, but the time was too short and had no reference value. From this we can conclude that a US interest rate cut does not necessarily mean a recession, but a recession will definitely occur after the end of the US Treasury bond inversion, but the difference is the degree and duration.

The future trend mainly depends on the degree of recession in the US economy. The market performance has obviously reflected the concerns of investors. How do you think the Fed will respond?

Given this liquidation intensity distribution, what would you do if you were a dog dealer? I don’t need to say more.

After stepping into countless pitfalls, I have summarized five things not to do in the cryptocurrency circle:

1. Don't play with anonymous team projects. They dare not show their faces and are ready to slip away at any time;

2. Don't play with pledge projects. All pledges are to defraud liquidity. What you want is their interest, and what they want is your principal;

3. Don't play with Gamefi projects. It's not 21 years now. Why bother to work so hard for a pig's trotter meal;

4. Don't play with Pua projects. You work diligently to complete the tasks, but in the end you make the project team fat and disgust yourself;

5. Don't play with low circulation and high FDV projects. I don't need to say how unscrupulous the teams and VCs are in cutting leeks. Those who take over are all living Bodhisattvas;

How many of these pitfalls have you stepped into? Do you have any additions? Welcome to comment
😁