On October 29, Bitcoin broke through 70,000 again, but I believe that many people, like me, cannot be happy for the time being, because most of the copycats are still lying on the ground, waiting for their investment to be recovered.

At this moment, Bitcoin's market capitalization is about to exceed 60%, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is 0.036, a 26-month low.

This is the most difficult time. Will the copycat season come again? Does the so-called value investment still exist? People can't help but ask soul-searching questions.

## Why buy a knockoff ##

It’s very simple. Most people should have the same idea, which is to get higher returns.

Buying bitcoin is undoubtedly the most correct investment, but the ceiling of bitcoin's rate of return is too low, which is far from enough for retail investors.

If you invest in Bitcoin in a bear market, it would be a good choice. But if a new user from outside the circle has just entered the market, Bitcoin will definitely not be very attractive. In the foreseeable future, more companies and institutions will invest in Bitcoin, and retail investors have been gradually left behind.

## Does so-called value investing exist? ##

Basically non-existent.

The altcoins don’t sound good, but the appcoins sound better. Many people may start investing in appcoins with the same mindset as me, researching the fundamentals of various projects, studying token economics, what track leaders, what narrative hot spots, trying to pick a big golden dog from the vast garbage.

But one day you will understand that garbage is always garbage, it can only be recycled for a short time.

Some people compare tokens to project stocks, which is a very wrong analogy. Will the project give you dividends if you hold tokens? No; can you actually control the project if you become a major coin holder? No!

Some projects will say that you can earn income by staking tokens. In 2024, no one will believe this nonsense anymore. Every staking project is madly coveting your principal under the guise of income. In other words, the platform coins of the exchange are still there, and you can enjoy the dividends of the platform development.

The tokens of most projects are actually useless. Not only are they useless, but they also have to keep selling tokens to support the development of the project because the project itself is not profitable. The tokens are just the ATMs of the project, and the money in the ATMs is of course from the second-tier investors.

The cost of cutting leeks in the cryptocurrency circle is still too low. Come up with a concept, build a team, operate it, and if you are lucky, you can attract some investment, and then give an airdrop expectation. Users will spend money and effort to brush data, and finally the tokens will be issued, cash out and leave, young models, yachts and big houses, leaving only a Twitter editor to post GMs every day. So, do you, my friend, still believe in value investing?

## Will the copycat season still appear? ##

I believe so.

Although most of the altcoins are garbage, they cannot be generalized. There are still some high-quality coins. Moreover, whether the altcoins will rise or not depends on how the dealers operate and whether there is enough water.

The two most important factors affecting the market now are: 1. situation, 2. interest rate cut.

In this year's US election, Trump currently has a greater chance of winning, and Trump's coming to power will have a greater impact on the cryptocurrency world.

First, Trump is not warlike, and he once said that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours after taking office. Let’s not talk about whether he is bragging or not, but at least Trump’s coming to power will stabilize the war situation and will not continue to expand the risks.
Second, Trump is good at doing business. If you want to develop industry and commerce well, you definitely need a low interest rate environment. Therefore, he also promised to significantly cut interest rates after taking office. Don't underestimate Trump's determination to cut interest rates. As long as the water is big enough, there is no currency that will not rise.

What if Trump can’t win? If there is no civil war, it’s fine, but the benefits won’t be that great; if there is a civil war, no one can predict it.

In short, it is far from the time to despair. Let us look forward to it together.