半个圈内人
圈外的热梗，圈内的情绪
一点不懂是假话，懂一半才是真相
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Where will you stand in the next bull-bear switch?
We often think that when the market comes, the opportunity will naturally follow.
But real old players know:
Switching between bull and bear markets is the easiest time to lose money.
It's not that your direction is wrong; it's that your rhythm is off.
In today's article, I want to talk to you about:
Why is the market's peak of harvesting the most retail investors at the boundary between bull and bear?
One, the beginning of the bull market: most people are still 'waiting for a correction.'
Have you heard this saying:
'I'll buy when it corrects.'
In the early stages of every bull market, retail investors are the most confused:
Watching prices rise but afraid to buy;
Buying in but afraid of being trapped;
But real old players know:
Switching between bull and bear markets is the easiest time to lose money.
It's not that your direction is wrong; it's that your rhythm is off.
In today's article, I want to talk to you about:
Why is the market's peak of harvesting the most retail investors at the boundary between bull and bear?
One, the beginning of the bull market: most people are still 'waiting for a correction.'
Have you heard this saying:
'I'll buy when it corrects.'
In the early stages of every bull market, retail investors are the most confused:
Watching prices rise but afraid to buy;
Buying in but afraid of being trapped;
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After following 10 so-called 'experts', I lost an entire month's salary
Have you had this kind of experience?
Seeing a trader post an incredible trade, you got excited, clicked on his profile, and the past few days were filled with profit screenshots.
Then you start to think:
"If I buy like him, would I have doubled my money by now?"
So you clicked to follow, starting your 'wealth dream'...
As a result, you lost 5% once, 10% twice, and your account is almost cleared after three times.
You finally understand that following others doesn't make you rich; it makes you pay tuition.
Today, let's talk about: Why do 99% of people lose when following others?
1. What you see is what he wants you to see.
Seeing a trader post an incredible trade, you got excited, clicked on his profile, and the past few days were filled with profit screenshots.
Then you start to think:
"If I buy like him, would I have doubled my money by now?"
So you clicked to follow, starting your 'wealth dream'...
As a result, you lost 5% once, 10% twice, and your account is almost cleared after three times.
You finally understand that following others doesn't make you rich; it makes you pay tuition.
Today, let's talk about: Why do 99% of people lose when following others?
1. What you see is what he wants you to see.
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What does #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC mean?
1. Short-term Emotional Boost
Saylor's “Send more Orange” post on X suggests the next round of accumulation, such signals have previously led to a 2-3% increase in Bitcoin over the past 24 hours. For the cryptocurrency circle, this is a “psychological catalyst” that encourages retail investors and some institutions to follow suit in the short term.
2. Actual Increase in Holdings Reduces Liquidity
MicroStrategy's most recent increase was about 4,020 BTC, with a total holding of over 580,000 BTC, and continued coin locking behavior compresses the tradable supply. In a situation of tight supply, even small short-term purchasing volumes can have an upward price impact.
3. Accelerating Institutional Relay
Saylor has transformed MicroStrategy into a “corporate Bitcoin reserve” model, attracting several companies, including GameStop and Trump Media, to follow suit. If more institutions imitate this, it will amplify market confidence and provide long-term support for capital.
4. Not a Risk-Free Operation
MicroStrategy is financing through the issuance of preferred stock and convertible bonds, bringing leverage effects; if BTC pulls back, it will amplify the risk of MSTR stock.
In the short term, the market has already become “immune” to such signals, as the last manifestation was relatively weak, and the follow-up effect may gradually diminish.
1. Short-term Emotional Boost
Saylor's “Send more Orange” post on X suggests the next round of accumulation, such signals have previously led to a 2-3% increase in Bitcoin over the past 24 hours. For the cryptocurrency circle, this is a “psychological catalyst” that encourages retail investors and some institutions to follow suit in the short term.
2. Actual Increase in Holdings Reduces Liquidity
MicroStrategy's most recent increase was about 4,020 BTC, with a total holding of over 580,000 BTC, and continued coin locking behavior compresses the tradable supply. In a situation of tight supply, even small short-term purchasing volumes can have an upward price impact.
3. Accelerating Institutional Relay
Saylor has transformed MicroStrategy into a “corporate Bitcoin reserve” model, attracting several companies, including GameStop and Trump Media, to follow suit. If more institutions imitate this, it will amplify market confidence and provide long-term support for capital.
4. Not a Risk-Free Operation
MicroStrategy is financing through the issuance of preferred stock and convertible bonds, bringing leverage effects; if BTC pulls back, it will amplify the risk of MSTR stock.
In the short term, the market has already become “immune” to such signals, as the last manifestation was relatively weak, and the follow-up effect may gradually diminish.
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How to Identify Real and Fake Traders? Don't Trust People in Screenshots Anymore
In the crypto circle, anyone can be a 'continuously profitable trader.'
Only three things are needed:
A profit screenshot, a seemingly professional term wrap, and a group of fans who are losing money.
Thus, you start to feel confused:
Who is the real and consistently profitable person?
Who is just a 'marketing trader'?
Today, let’s talk about something practical: how to identify real and fake traders.
1. Real traders share logic, while fake traders show results.
Real traders will clearly write: entry logic, risk control, position structure, take profit and stop loss, market background.
Fake traders only show 'how much profit,' but do not mention entry points or position sizes.
Only three things are needed:
A profit screenshot, a seemingly professional term wrap, and a group of fans who are losing money.
Thus, you start to feel confused:
Who is the real and consistently profitable person?
Who is just a 'marketing trader'?
Today, let’s talk about something practical: how to identify real and fake traders.
1. Real traders share logic, while fake traders show results.
Real traders will clearly write: entry logic, risk control, position structure, take profit and stop loss, market background.
Fake traders only show 'how much profit,' but do not mention entry points or position sizes.
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Why are you losing money while Israel and Iran are at war?
1. The Web3 market operates around the clock, and conflict events cannot be 'closed to cool down'.
Traditional financial markets can at least pause trading to calmly handle situations (like stock market circuit breakers),
But the crypto market is open 24/7, and as soon as news comes, it immediately reflects emotional fluctuations:
No buffer, no circuit breaker.
Panic reflects first, rationality follows to fill the gap.
Between truth and falsehood, you have already been cut off beforehand.
2. The crypto circle heavily relies on emotion-driven trading, geopolitical events amplify volatility.
The crypto market's performance does not rely on results, but on narratives.
Narratives of war and conflict, these 'black swan' events can instantly break market consensus and cause emotional collapse.
Traditional financial markets can at least pause trading to calmly handle situations (like stock market circuit breakers),
But the crypto market is open 24/7, and as soon as news comes, it immediately reflects emotional fluctuations:
No buffer, no circuit breaker.
Panic reflects first, rationality follows to fill the gap.
Between truth and falsehood, you have already been cut off beforehand.
2. The crypto circle heavily relies on emotion-driven trading, geopolitical events amplify volatility.
The crypto market's performance does not rely on results, but on narratives.
Narratives of war and conflict, these 'black swan' events can instantly break market consensus and cause emotional collapse.
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Is Labubu the real Meme? It has already understood the Web3 setup.
Is Labubu the real Meme? It has already understood the Web3 setup.
If Labubu were to go on-chain, it would likely burst into the top ten Meme projects. It doesn't issue tokens, mint NFTs, or go on-chain, yet all its operational logic precisely replicates the core gameplay of Web3. A closer look reveals that it actually understands 'emotion, narrative, and community mobilization' better than many Web3 projects.
Limited release is essentially a minting mechanism.
Labubu's box-drawing mechanism is essentially an offline version of a PFP project.
It relies on the scarcity of randomly hidden items to create uncertainty, resembling the random attribute combinations in NFTs.
If Labubu were to go on-chain, it would likely burst into the top ten Meme projects. It doesn't issue tokens, mint NFTs, or go on-chain, yet all its operational logic precisely replicates the core gameplay of Web3. A closer look reveals that it actually understands 'emotion, narrative, and community mobilization' better than many Web3 projects.
Limited release is essentially a minting mechanism.
Labubu's box-drawing mechanism is essentially an offline version of a PFP project.
It relies on the scarcity of randomly hidden items to create uncertainty, resembling the random attribute combinations in NFTs.
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