We often think that when the market comes, the opportunity will naturally follow.

But real old players know:

Switching between bull and bear markets is the easiest time to lose money.

It's not that your direction is wrong; it's that your rhythm is off.

In today's article, I want to talk to you about:

Why is the market's peak of harvesting the most retail investors at the boundary between bull and bear?


One, the beginning of the bull market: most people are still 'waiting for a correction.'

Have you heard this saying:

'I'll buy when it corrects.'

In the early stages of every bull market, retail investors are the most confused:
Watching prices rise but afraid to buy;
Buying in but afraid of being trapped;
Once trapped, they dare not average down;
Not averaging down means missing the main upward wave.

The real opportunity is not the explosive rise, but the 'consolidation period' when you can no longer buy back.

Most people have to wait until the coin doubles before they think 'it's really a bull.'

By the time you confirm, smart money is already considering how to offload.


Two, the initial appearance of the bear market: believers are most likely to become bag holders.


When the market turns bearish, the ones who suffer the most are not the short-term traders,

Rather, it is 'long-term holders with faith.'

They are used to rising prices and do not believe in declines.

They hold their positions, averaging down while shouting:

'This wave is just a technical correction.'

but rather those who keep averaging down deeper, shouting louder, and feeling more pain the more they believe.

It isn't until one day they completely blow up their positions that they start to doubt, 'Is the bull market over?'

Unfortunately, the market never repeatedly confirms; it only gives a signal once.


Three, the biggest risk is thinking you understand the cycle.


'I have been very cautious this time.' 'I learned from the lessons of the last bull market.'

— Are you really sure?

During the madness of a bull market, can you resist the urge to leverage and chase high prices?

When the bear market first arrives, can you immediately stop-loss and stay in cash?

We all overestimate our ability to understand the cycle.

It's not that you don't understand the switch between bull and bear markets; it's that you are not prepared for the moment of 'being slapped in the face.'



Four, winners are not those with the right direction, but those with the right rhythm.


Getting the direction right is easy; you can hear 'the bull market is coming' from any community.

But getting the rhythm right is very difficult.

True experts are in this state:


In the early stages of a rise, you can enter the market ahead of others' hesitation;
In the later stages of a rise, you are not greedy and dare to take profits;
In the early stages of a decline, you can calmly assess and withdraw;
In the deep water zone of a decline, you do not fantasize about a 'reversal,' but focus on waiting.

This is not based on 'feeling,' but on discipline, review, risk control, and experience.



Five, where will you stand in the next bull-bear switch?

They catch the rhythm and profit from the entire market move?

Are they the ones who go all in at the end of the bull market, add positions at the beginning of the bear, panic at the bottom, and liquidate at the bottom?

The market will not notify you in advance, 'This is the top' or 'This is the bottom.'

But what you can do now is:


Establish a strategy;
Organize the rhythm;
Adjust your mindset;
Manage your positions well.

The switch between bull and bear markets is not where opportunities start, but the first round of elimination in the game.

The last question:

Do you want to make money in one bull market, or do you want to survive multiple cycles?

Welcome to discuss in the comments:

At which step did you 'crash' in the last round?

Are you ready for the next round?