Trump's chance of being elected president of the United States is about 60%. It is affected by many factors, including the political environment, voter sentiment, campaign strategy, opponent strength, and various unpredictable events. According to the information I searched, we can analyze it from the following aspects: 1. Support within the Republican Party: Trump has a strong base within the Republican Party. According to reports from and, Trump performed strongly in the Republican primaries and has won the primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa, which shows his high support among Republican voters. 2. Legal issues: The legal issues facing Trump may affect his election. According to reports from and, Trump was found guilty in the "hush money" case, but analysts believe that he is unlikely to go to jail, and even if he is found guilty, he is still eligible to run for president under the US Constitution. 3. Polls: Polls can provide some clues. According to reports from, although Trump faces criminal charges, the impact of the criminal verdict on him is relatively limited, and his support rate is basically the same as Biden. In addition, 25% of Republican voters said that if Trump is found guilty, they will be more willing to vote for him. 4. Political division: The current political environment in the United States is highly divided. According to reports, Trump's case has exacerbated the political and public opinion division, which may lead to fierce confrontation between the two parties in key swing states.
5. International perspective: Some international observers and political leaders have expressed concerns about Trump's possible re-election, but there are also views that this may provide Europe and other regions with an opportunity to move towards greater independence.
6. Voter base: Trump has a loyal group of supporters. According to reports, even in the face of legal problems, 80% of Trump's supporters said they would continue to support him.
Taking all the above factors into consideration, there is a 60% probability that Trump will be elected as the US president, but it is difficult to quantify accurately. The election results will be affected by many dynamic factors, including campaign activities, policy positions, opponent strategies, and the final choice of voters. Therefore, any prediction of the probability of Trump's election should be cautious and take into account the uncertainty of the election.
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