Based on comprehensive information analysis, tomorrow (June 15, 2025) and the day after (June 16) Bitcoin's market may show a weak oscillating trend, but the defense of the key support level will determine the short-term direction. Below is the specific analysis:
One, key support level: $100,000 has become a dividing line between bulls and bears
- Current price range: Bitcoin has recently oscillated around $103,000-$105,000, briefly dropping below $100,000 on June 12 before rebounding.
- Core support significance: $100,000 is not only a psychological threshold but also a technical "line of life and death." If it effectively breaks down (especially if the daily close is below this level), it may trigger panic selling, with short-term targets looking towards $97,000-$98,000; conversely, if it can hold, there is hope for a rebound to $105,000-$110,000.
📉 Two, bearish factors suppressing short-term rise
1. Macroeconomic policy risk
- US-China tariff impact: The US policy of imposing a 55% tariff on Chinese goods (up from 30%) has raised market concerns, potentially driving up inflation and suppressing demand for risk assets, putting pressure on Bitcoin.
- Liquidity tightening: Major economies (US, China, Japan) are tightening monetary policy. If the 10-year US Treasury yield rises to 5%-6%, it could exacerbate market pullbacks.
2. Market sentiment is cautious
- Low volatility signal: Bitcoin's volatility has fallen to a low point on the 200-day average true range (ATR), indicating that investors are in a wait-and-see mode, and trading activity has decreased.
- Decrease in leverage: Leverage in the futures market has decreased, indicating that investors are avoiding risks and waiting for clarity in direction.
📈 Three, potential bullish: If support is solid, a rebound may come
1. Institutional buying expectations
- If the price of Bitcoin approaches $100,000, institutions may buy on dips. Bitwise CEO pointed out that if the price breaks through $130,000-$150,000, selling pressure will significantly decrease, but it has not been triggered yet.
2. Technical resilience
- No bear market signals in the derivatives market: Futures premiums remain at 4.5% (above bear market negative premiums), perpetual contract funding rates are neutral, indicating that the market is not overly pessimistic.
- Weakness of the US dollar supports: The US dollar index has fallen from 109.2 at the beginning of the year to 104, and history shows that a weak dollar often benefits Bitcoin.
🔮 Four, comprehensive market forecast for the next two days
| June 15 | Oscillating downwards | 60% | Tariff concerns continue, insufficient buying | $100,000-$103,000 |
| June 16 | Rebound testing resistance | 40% | $100,000 support is effective, short covering | $105,000-$108,000 |
💎 Key reminder: If $100,000 is lost, be wary of a rapid drop to $97,000 (June 8 low); if it holds above $103,000, there is hope to test the $110,000 level.
💡 Five, long-term trend unchanged, caution needed in the short term
- Basis of a bull market remains: Institutions continue to increase holdings (like MicroStrategy, Trump Media), and the advancement of Bitcoin strategic reserves in multiple countries has not changed the long-term bullish outlook.
- Operation tips for the next two days: Non-investors should focus on the defense results at $100,000 and changes in US inflation expectations (e.g., subsequent impact of CPI data). If no black swan events occur (like regulatory crackdowns or geopolitical conflicts), the probability of a crash is low, but there is insufficient momentum to break the previous high ($112,000).
> Bitcoin is like surfing, the big trend is a rising tide 🌊, but there may be undercurrents in the next two days. Holding steady at $100,000 = storing energy for another surge; breaking below will turn small waves into torrents. The market is holding its breath, waiting for the direction.