BTC has experienced four bull-bear cycles since its birth

BTC has experienced four bull-bear cycles since its birth, each cycle is about four years, including two years of rising trend, one year of falling trend and one year of bottom shock.

Observe the peak prices of the four cycles:

The first round of peak: 29.64

The second round of peak: 1153 (38.9 times that of the first round)

The third round of peak: 19497 (16.91 times that of the second round)

The fourth round of peak: 68419 (3.51 times that of the third round)

Analyze the price growth rate between vertices (logarithmic price difference/interval days):

The growth rate of the first and second rounds: 0.00402

The growth rate of the second and third rounds: 0.00192 (0.478 times that of the previous round)

The growth rate of the third and fourth rounds: 0.00088 (0.459 times that of the previous round)

Expected peak price of the next round of bull market:

Considering the substantial increase in the market value of BTC after each round of bull market, the price growth rate between vertices is expected to further decrease. Assuming that the growth rate ratio is further reduced to 0.439 according to the arithmetic progression, the peak price of the next bull market is expected to be around $120,000.

Conclusion:

By analyzing the bull-bear cycle of BTC and combining the concept of price growth between peaks, it can be inferred that the peak price of the next bull market is about $120,000. This inference takes into account the two dimensions of price and time, which is more accurate than the method that only considers the price difference.

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