Author of this article: Bit Pig
Disclaimer: This article only represents personal thoughts and does not constitute any investment advice.
0x00 Introduction
Since ancient times, BTC has given people the impression of tulip bubble, Ponzi scheme, and immediate return to zero, while the darling of value investment, A-shares, has always been supported by various bigwigs, and A-shares also enjoy the support of various preferential policies. Today, we will combine historical data to review what kind of returns you will get if you invest in A-shares when BTC is announced to be zero.
0x01 A funny conversation
A-share investors: Bitcoin is a bubble with no real support, and A-shares have entered a bull market.
Investors in the cryptocurrency circle: I haven’t seen the A-share market rise before, so how come the bull market is coming?
A-share investors: Are you blind? Can't you see that the A-share market has risen by nearly 10% in the past few months?
Cryptocurrency investors: Oh, that makes sense, Bitcoin has always been Biden’s conspiracy.
0x02 Counting the 14 times Bitcoin was declared to be zero
A simple search of the data shows that between 2013 and 2022, Bitcoin has been declared to be zero by the media at least 14 times. Below we combine historical data to look back at the times when Bitcoin was declared to be zero, and what the BTC price and the Shanghai Composite Index were.
April 15, 2013
Investor report: 1 Bitcoin = 200 US dollars, a new Ponzi scheme
BTC price at this time: ¥1020
At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index: the highest point is 2285 points
May 05, 2013
China Economic Net: Revealing the secrets of the crazy Bitcoin: 800 yuan per bitcoin, a new Ponzi scheme?
BTC price at this time: ¥816
At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index: the highest point is 2300 points
May 13, 2013
Southern Daily: Bitcoin: A new dream of wealth or a new scam?
BTC price at this time: ¥892
At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index: the highest point is 2300 points
November 26, 2013
Sina Finance columnist He Yingyan: Why Bitcoin is a scam
BTC price at this time: ¥5864
At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index: the highest point is 2220 points
November 10, 2015
Beijing News: Bitcoin is nothing but a Ponzi scheme
BTC price at this time: ¥2595
At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index: the highest point is 3382 points
April 24, 2016
Wall Street Journal: Bitcoin: Born in 2009 and Died in 2016?
BTC price at this time: ¥3231
At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index: the highest point is 2938 points
September 11, 2017
China Securities Journal: Delisting, delisting, and everything going back to zero
BTC price at this time: ¥30573
At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index: the highest point is 3360 points
December 28, 2017
We-media: Bitcoin is dead, triggering a global battle for blockchain
BTC price at this time: ¥115,200
At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index: the highest point is 3307 points
February 27, 2018
Time Magazine: Be careful not to be the last person to take over Bitcoin
BTC price at this time: ¥74783
At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index: the highest point is 3259 points
October 15, 2018
Economic Daily: Roubini: Bitcoin and other digital currencies are "the mother of all scams and bubbles"
BTC price at this time: ¥60401
At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index: the highest point is 2602 points
November 22, 2018
China Fund News: The biggest bubble in history has collapsed, Bitcoin has fallen by nearly 80% in less than a year, and mining machines have been treated as garbage
Daily Economic News: Bitcoin dream shattered: $30 billion disappeared in an instant, and the bigwigs exclaimed that it would fall by 50%
BTC price at this time: ¥34720
At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index: the highest point is 2588 points
June 22, 2022
Economic Daily: Bitcoin plummets and we need to be wary of the risk of zeroing out
June 26, 2022
People's Daily Online: Virtual currency is ultimately a pipe dream and a Ponzi scheme
BTC price at this time: ¥144,700
At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index: the highest point is 3398 points
Through historical data analysis, we found that since 2013, BTC has been in a state of zero in media reports. Currently, BTC has returned to zero from 1,000 yuan in 2013 to 140,000 yuan today (2022.10.24). The performance of A-shares, which has always been known for value investment, is not bad. A-shares have risen from 2285 points in 2013 to 2977 points today (2022.10.24), and their performance is not bad either.
0x03 Revelation
If you bought A shares in the nine years from 2013 to 2022, your investment returns may not be ideal. Can the above data make us think deeply about what value investment is?
