HI, everyone. It's been a long time since I've brought you articles on trend analysis. I'm really sorry because I'm busy with work. Without further ado, let's get straight to the point #BTC
1. Analysis of the previous cycle
In the big cycle, we can easily see that in the last round, it took 1 year and 8 months (March 2020-November 2021) to lead circle B from 4900 points to 6900 points, an increase of 1200%, 12 times.
There was a pullback in the middle due to the introduction of policies by China, but it quickly rebounded.
From the beginning of Taper in November 2021 to the end of Taper in July 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell all the way to around 18,000.
Therefore, we use financial thinking to face the market trend objectively and calmly, and the conclusion we reach is that the favorable US monetary policy has played a key role in the trend.
2. Analysis of this cycle
This round will start in July 2022, when Taper ends, and end in March 2023. A huge amount of money has never appeared in history. Since August 2017, the average number of BTC chips has been around 20,000.
What needs to be emphasized at this point is that the taper has ended, the rate hike has weakened, and the negative impact of the B circle has been exhausted, and the SEC's expectations for ETFs have continued to improve. These factors combined have made BTC without the support of the Federal Reserve's financial tools. The price has reached around 63,000
It should be noted that from 15,000 to 63,000, the weekly K has been shrinking. Only at the daily level did a large-volume callback occur, but the cycle was very short and it was constantly pulled back (as shown in the figure below)
On January 11, 2021, the day when the SEC approved the spot ETF, the market fell back 20% after the volume increased, and then rebounded and broke through on February 24, 2024.
At this point, what I want to explain is that without the "blessing" of US financial instruments, Bitcoin's trend is extremely fierce. If there is a subsequent interest rate cut, where will Bitcoin go? Everyone can think about this issue seriously.
Instead of being influenced and disturbed by various messages on the Internet every day and wasting your time, which is meaningless.
None of us can escape the cycle. The cycle affects each and every one of us. Can we embrace it with a bright smile?
